Coaching candidates

[nccardfan]

What he has done with Clemson's defense. Im a defensive minded guy.

I don’t think Venables is interested in being a HC. He's had other opportunities, in fact a HC in the SEC.

I don’t know if he’s untouchable but when CCS left, I would have like to get Chris Peterson. I loved to watch his Boise State teams. Most don’t think he could have recruited here being a west coast guy, but I think he’s a caliber coach that eventually would bring a winning program.

 

[BPGhost]

I don’t think Venables is interested in being a HC. He's had other opportunities, in fact a HC in the SEC.

I don’t know if he’s untouchable but when CCS left, I would have like to get Chris Peterson. I loved to watch his Boise State teams. Most don’t think he could have recruited here being a west coast guy, but I think he’s a caliber coach that eventually would bring a winning program.

I doubt even Jurich could have pulled Petersen. He turned down bigger programs than UofL - USC & UCLA just to name two.

 

[zipp]

...I guaran-dam-tee donations would significantly spike if, rather when Brohm is named coach at UofL.

Funny stuff, those "guarantees".

We just hired one of the best coaches in college basketball, and Fanboy had to get every damn dime of Xavier's $4 million from a U of L bank account. But donors are standing in line to put their newfound millions behind Brohm.

How are we looking down here from outer space?...

 

[nccardfan]

I doubt even Jurich could have pulled Petersen. He turned down bigger programs than UofL - USC & UCLA just to name two.

I think there was too much pressure on him to try to return those schools to their glory days.

 

[BPGhost]

I think there was too much pressure on him to try to return those schools to their glory days.

Definitely agree. The move to Louisville would have been a shocker though.

 

[KerryRhodes]

Funny stuff, those "guarantees".

We just hired one of the best coaches in college basketball, and Fanboy had to get every damn dime of Xavier's $4 million from a U of L bank account. But donors are standing in line to put their newfound millions behind Brohm.

How are we looking down here from outer space?...

Was they posed to rehire Pitino ?
Keep Padgett for another year for 900k ?

Donors and boosters are essential for Athletic Departments. All across these here United States, the afformentioned are making things happen on campus.

Keep Petrino- 15,000 fans. Merchandise and concessions plummet. Top notch players avoid the team. TV viewership plummets.

Are you retaining any of this or you staring at your Pitino poster.

 

[zipp]

...Are you retaining any of this or you staring at your Pitino poster.

No, I'm smiling and shaking my head about you dodging the question...

 

[HRTheCard]

Man we do have a bunch of Petrino lovers ITT. I don't know how you could love the production on the field since Houston 2016.

I personally think it's funny that some actually try to compare Jeff going 7-6 last year and his record so far this year to Petrino's. Those comparing those numbers completely ignore that this is year 5 with a lot of talent on the team and Jeff is in year 2 trying to bring a program back to life that hasn't gone anything for a 10+ years. National perspective of Jeff is that he's done an amazing job so far.

Since we're comparing stupid numbers and records, Jeff did better than Boppy at WKU. Heck, I remember sitting in the stands last year in Indy thinking that we might actually lose to Purdue. AND THAT WAS GAME ONE FOR JEFF BROHM AT PURDUE.

Some of you are undoubtedly trying to spin the narrative with Jeff by comparing things that simply aren't comparable.

Year 5 vs Year 2.
Downward spiral since 2016 vs First bowl game since 2012 and first bowl WIN since 2011.

And if Jeff does pull it off and beat OSU (or one of the teams that you biased haters/Boppy lovers think he should beat in order to get credit) with the MINIMAL talent at Purdue that he has, then the NATIONAL talk will get bigger and his name will get hotter. I don't think he'll beat OSU, but he will have them hyped up and believing they can.

I honestly cannot believe that some of you think that he has to beat one of those teams in order to get credit. IT'S YEAR 2.

When was the last time Boppy beat a top 25 team? Oh yeah, 2016 vs FSU. What's his top 25 record since he's been back? 1-11. ONE AND FREAKING ELEVEN.

Since he's been back we are 1-3 in bowls and won't even make one this year unless a miracle happens. So 1-3-1.

Let's look at Jeff Brohm. He already has tied Boppy with Top 25 AND Bowl wins in less than 2 full seasons.

So we're talking less than 2 (TWO) years, Jeff has already TIED Boppy in 2 of the most important aspects of football.

Open your eyes, haters. Boppy is falling off the rails. I don't care about stupid season records. If you can't see that we have been falling off since the 2016 Houston blowout then you just choose to NOT see it.

I also don't want to hear the money issue. Donors are fed up and if they want him gone, he will be gone. You won't be paying all the money at once and if you DON'T get rid of him this season, then his buyout only INCREASES next year....and the year after....and so on, thanks to TJ's ridiculous lifetime contract and never took into account that it could turn south on the field.

Buyout increases next year and so on
Season ticket sales will go down more than they already have
More donors will pull if he's not fired
More donors will jump back in if Brohm is hired
Lose more money keeping him than getting rid of him

Those are all reasons and some are just too oblivious to see that.

 

[zipp]

Can I just get "I love Brohm" in 50 words or less?...

 

[jarheadky]

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/29/...oney-in-college-football-coaches-firings.html

This is an older article but still food for thought... I know I’ll be ostracized for this but I’m an infrequent visitor anyway. Good luck hate to see the Cards struggling!

 

[earsky]

Gotta remind you, we all said the same for CBP and how’s that working out?

Ain’t nothing dead solid perfect.

You're right. I do think that there's no place like home for Brohm though. I think this is the one he wants.

 

[beantowncard]

I’d submit that it’s less defeatist and more realist based upon real world experience. 99% of HC have a dream job and it’s not a knock but it’s fair to say that for 99% of them - UofL isn’t it.

I think Jeff Brohm might be that 1% for UofL.

Very few people get their dream job

 

[beantowncard]

Can I just get "I love Brohm" in 50 words or less?...

What would it take in terms of falling attendance, ticket sales, and/or donations for it to make sense to show Bobby the door? I would think it would have to be catastrophic, and that we would have some assurance that the replacement will restore what was lost. But what is the number?

 

[MDCardsFan]

If we're comparing coaches buyouts then, Auburn coach buyout is $36 million.

 

[Guardman]

What would it take in terms of falling attendance, ticket sales, and/or donations for it to make sense to show Bobby the door? I would think it would have to be catastrophic, and that we would have some assurance that the replacement will restore what was lost. But what is the number?

There is no better moment in a season to make a move than at the end of the season. You know what the results are. You know what the actual attendance has been. You know how that has compared with the previous season's actual attendance. What you don't yet know is what next year's record would be with and without a new coach. And you don't know how many season tickets you can sell with and without a new coach.

It's certainly a safe bet that more season tickets can be sold with a coaching change. How many more is the question. The difference may be quite large. It could be a difference of 15,000 season tickets. The difference in revenue (all sources) from a coaching change could be as much as $7m for one season. It might also be as little as $4m or so.

If you wait one more season to see if it can be turned around enough to attract fans back, the outcome is unknown, plus you've certainly lost one more year of revenue. So one thing is certain, the revenue loss. While the other is still a question, can it be turned around.

You know the buyout cost of the current staff isn't going to increase. It's going to stay about the same.

It really just comes down to whether you think the team's performance will improve enough to make the change. If the team finishes 2-10 this season, it is quite likely the new coach will finish at least on par. But even if he does finish that badly, you would still have 'saved' $4-7m revenue loss just in the first season, stemming from the hype of the coaching change. If the new coach does pretty well, say winning 50% of his games in the first year and more than 50% in his second year, then it becomes likely that you will have 'saved' about $12-18m in revenue losses altogether, within a 3 year period.

That amount of avoided lost revenue would pay for the change to be made.

 

[Rollem Cards]

Man we do have a bunch of Petrino lovers ITT. I don't know how you could love the production on the field since Houston 2016.

I believe a lot of "lovers" are just realists. I'm not speaking for all, but from conversations I know that most of us

- know that this has been sliding since '16 Houston
- know that it would have come sooner if not for LJ
- know the recruiting has been a shotgun approach with no "great" results.

The difference is, we also

- know we can't afford pay off CBP to leave. Right now
- know that no program looking for a TOP coach will "fire" a guy with 70% wins after ONE bad season (again, see the first bullet point. We know it didn't begin THIS year.....but an outsider sees ONE bad season)

You're wasting your rants on us. You need to be sending letters/emails to VT everyday. Remember to include copies of checks you've written to UL over all these years, and include another sizable one marked "For buyout ONLY" IF you want to be taken seriously .

 

[EKYCard643]

I really, really think a lot of Petrino defenders are putting way too much stock in the "what will it look to outsiders if we fire Petrino?"

- I don't think its that big of a deal to coaches.
- It doesn't really apply here because Brohm isn't going to care about that.
- This program isn't having a "bad" season. Its an absolute disaster.
- Coaches know Petrino's reputation and know its not just about wins/losses.

I have no idea if Tyra can get it figured out and get rid of Petrino, but the idea that he shouldn't try just because of how it would "look" is ridiculous in my view. I will say this and I think Tyra probably knows this as well, if they can't get rid of Bobby this year, I honestly think Louisville football will fall into a hole that will take years to dig out of and I think he's probably doing everything he can to figure out a way to keep us from slipping further into that hole.

 

[nccardfan]

I really, really think a lot of Petrino defenders are putting way too much stock in the "what will it look to outsiders if we fire Petrino?"

- I don't think its that big of a deal to coaches.
- It doesn't really apply here because Brohm isn't going to care about that.
- This program isn't having a "bad" season. Its an absolute disaster.
- Coaches know Petrino's reputation and know its not just about wins/losses.

I have no idea if Tyra can get it figured out and get rid of Petrino, but the idea that he shouldn't try just because of how it would "look" is ridiculous in my view. I will say this and I think Tyra probably knows this as well, if they can't get rid of Bobby this year, I honestly think Louisville football will fall into a hole that will take years to dig out of and I think he's probably doing everything he can to figure out a way to keep us from slipping further into that hole.

I disagree. I have many friends who are fans of several other teams and look down on us for having coaches like Pitino and bringing back motorcycle Bobby. That image of him after the wreck will forever be remembered as vintage Bobby, unfortunately.

 

[EKYCard643]

I disagree. I have many friends who are fans of several other teams and look down on us for having coaches like Pitino and bringing back motorcycle Bobby. That image of him after the wreck will forever be remembered as vintage Bobby, unfortunately.

Right. That's not really what I'm talking about though. No doubt UL took a major PR hit by rehiring Petrino, that was a big time swing and miss that didn't pay off.

I'm talking about those that think other coaches will look down on Louisville for firing a guy with a record like Petrino for "one bad season" and that it might make other candidates reluctant to take the job.

 

[HRTheCard]

I believe a lot of "lovers" are just realists. I'm not speaking for all, but from conversations I know that most of us

- know that this has been sliding since '16 Houston
- know that it would have come sooner if not for LJ
- know the recruiting has been a shotgun approach with no "great" results.

The difference is, we also

- know we can't afford pay off CBP to leave. Right now
- know that no program looking for a TOP coach will "fire" a guy with 70% wins after ONE bad season (again, see the first bullet point. We know it didn't begin THIS year.....but an outsider sees ONE bad season)

You're wasting your rants on us. You need to be sending letters/emails to VT everyday. Remember to include copies of checks you've written to UL over all these years, and include another sizable one marked "For buyout ONLY" IF you want to be taken seriously .

Most realists would also understand that this is a different situation with UofL. They would understand that when you consider all of the logistics of getting rid of him, they easily outweigh keeping him. The BOT already wants the attitude of Bobby to be gone, the money will continue to dwindle to more than what he's worth at some point if he is retained, and clearly bringing Brohm back will have the place sold out against Notre Dame next year. And that's just one example and those are all broad topics but go WAY more in depth and it would be wise to get rid of him now rather than waiting.

I don't care what the BOT member said. It's not his job to come up with the money. Tyra knows contracts and I'm sure him and Bobby would work something out. If Tyra and Grissom want Bobby gone after this season, he will be gone. Those odds are greater than not.

 

[Louis III]

Crazy question, but how does anyone know that Brohm wants to come back here in lieu of everything that has gone in recent years. 3-4 years from now, I could see it being a no-brainer, but lets face it and I'm as diehard as they come, but UL has been a train wreck for the last 4 years!

 

[HRTheCard]

Crazy question, but how does anyone know that Brohm wants to come back here in lieu of everything that has gone in recent years. 3-4 years from now, I could see it being a no-brainer, but lets face it and I'm as diehard as they come, but UL has been a train wreck for the last 4 years!

He'd come back for the same reason Mack did, to rebuild the "train wreck."

 

[Morgantown Card]

If not Brohm then Brent Venables.

HARRR JON GRUDEN

Just stop. Venables is where he is for a reason. I think you ask and make him say no, can't hurt, but it's not realistic IMO.

 

[Louis III]

I hope you are right. Honestly, I think hiring Brohm is a little premature, but "IF" UL fires CBP, then he would be the only coach I'd want in this situation as it stands right now.

I think he would be here a long time and I think he is one of the most competitive guys I've seen play and/or coach. Brohm gets A LOT out of his guys. I don't think people truly understand what he took over @ Purdue.

 

[zipp]

There is no better moment in a season to make a move than at the end of the season. You know what the results are. You know what the actual attendance has been. You know how that has compared with the previous season's actual attendance. What you don't yet know is what next year's record would be with and without a new coach. And you don't know how many season tickets you can sell with and without a new coach.

It's certainly a safe bet that more season tickets can be sold with a coaching change. How many more is the question. The difference may be quite large. It could be a difference of 15,000 season tickets. The difference in revenue (all sources) from a coaching change could be as much as $7m for one season. It might also be as little as $4m or so.

If you wait one more season to see if it can be turned around enough to attract fans back, the outcome is unknown, plus you've certainly lost one more year of revenue. So one thing is certain, the revenue loss. While the other is still a question, can it be turned around.

You know the buyout cost of the current staff isn't going to increase. It's going to stay about the same.

It really just comes down to whether you think the team's performance will improve enough to make the change. If the team finishes 2-10 this season, it is quite likely the new coach will finish at least on par. But even if he does finish that badly, you would still have 'saved' $4-7m revenue loss just in the first season, stemming from the hype of the coaching change. If the new coach does pretty well, say winning 50% of his games in the first year and more than 50% in his second year, then it becomes likely that you will have 'saved' about $12-18m in revenue losses altogether, within a 3 year period.

That amount of avoided lost revenue would pay for the change to be made.

This is pretty sound analysis IMO. I'll add a few things...

What will be our basketball experience this season? Attendance dropped last year by 20%, and we're bringing in Chris Mack with a lot of support and optimism. If attendance and revenue aren't significantly better, that would indicate a coaching change of that significance isn't going to fix football revenue problems. (One ominous sign: Tyra budgeted for basketball ticket revenue to be down 15% this year AFTER Mack was hired...)

Buying Petrino another year gets U of L more visibility on Pitino's lawsuit. If that turns out to be a disaster financially, U of L can less afford a huge buyout.

With Notre Dame on next year's home schedule, football ticket sales may not decline even if Petrino is back. That's a hard one to gauge, but ND here is a biggie...

 

[Morgantown Card]

what will it look to outsiders if we fire

FARRRR

 

[nccardfan]

Right. That's not really what I'm talking about though. No doubt UL took a major PR hit by rehiring Petrino, that was a big time swing and miss that didn't pay off.

I'm talking about those that think other coaches will look down on Louisville for firing a guy with a record like Petrino for "one bad season" and that it might make other candidates reluctant to take the job.

Well those same fans who maybe don’t understand the economics involved would still say he needs to go... Look at Auburn. They fired Chisnik two seasons after a NC. His buyout wasn’t small and is still owed money. Where does Auburn get all their money. They have gone through quite a few coaches both basketball and football.

 

[EKYCard643]

Well those same fans who maybe don’t understand the economics involved would still say he needs to go... Look at Auburn. They fired Chisnik two seasons after a NC. His buyout wasn’t small and is still owed money. Where does Auburn get all their money. They have gone through quite a few coaches both basketball and football.

I 100% agree. I don't envy Tyra at all for having to deal with this. I personally don't think he can afford to keep Bobby but I also have no idea how he can afford to get rid of him.

Its a tough situation for the program to be in. I have absolutely 0 confidence that Bobby Petrino is going to fix the situation no matter how much time he's given but that buyout is a massive problem. If this season ends up the way its going and we finish 3-9 and then bring Petrino back....man, you're looking at maybe the lowest number of ticket sales in modern era.

I really think fans only tolerated the Petrino hiring in the first place and now that he's not winning, you're going to see a much higher level of apathy than a normal coach who is failing would get.

 

[zipp]

...I really think fans only tolerated the Petrino hiring in the first place and now that he's not winning, you're going to see a much higher level of apathy than a normal coach who is failing would get.

The K-rag debacle was epic. At least Petrino proved he could win at this level. With K-rag, you had no hope...

 

[swurv99]

This is pretty sound analysis IMO. I'll add a few things...

What will be our basketball experience this season? Attendance dropped last year by 20%, and we're bringing in Chris Mack with a lot of support and optimism. If attendance and revenue aren't significantly better, that would indicate a coaching change of that significance isn't going to fix football revenue problems. (One ominous sign: Tyra budgeted for basketball ticket revenue to be down 15% this year AFTER Mack was hired...)

Buying Petrino another year gets U of L more visibility on Pitino's lawsuit. If that turns out to be a disaster financially, U of L can less afford a huge buyout.

With Notre Dame on next year's home schedule, football ticket sales may not decline even if Petrino is back. That's a hard one to gauge, but ND here is a biggie...

Excellent post and don't forget Clemson plays at pjcs to in 2019. So that's 2 definite sellouts

 

[KerryRhodes]

Excellent post and don't forget Clemson plays at pjcs to in 2019. So that's 2 definite sellouts

Let it go Swurv.

He"s dead man coaching.

 

[swurv99]

He may be Kerry. P may agree to his buyout being paid over the course of 60 months. As we all know when Denny "retired" he was paid 8million over 15 years.

 

[BPGhost]

He may be Kerry. P may agree to his buyout being paid over the course of 60 months. As we all know when Denny "retired" he was paid 8million over 15 years.

That was in addition to the 7M that he got on his way out the door.

 

[Thecycle27]

Timing and circumstances make the timing right.

The other major benefit is this years recruiting is really small. This class is not ACC level it has 4 or 5 guys that I would put at this level. They seems to place a lot of value on their camps. Which to me means they value measurables more than actual football talent. The kid from Larue is a big kid and a good athlete, but he doesn't stand out on the field. I doubt he will even make All State. I wasn't impressed at all by the Franklin Simpson lineman other than he was big. Robbins isn't a Div 1 running back could be a good LB at this level but that is a gamble. Bottom line a coaching wouldn't hurt and frankly it would probably help recruiting.

I think Brohm is legit and I like Campbell at Iowa State plus some others that have been mentioned that may be under the wire. Brohm is the one guy that will be instantly accepted and get the fan base excited. Purdue probably isn't going to finish up very well so it isn't going to be considered a home run hire if it happens.

 

[Rollem Cards]

Tyra knows contracts

Says who?

What bank, investment firm, or Country Club deals with contracts?

He’s in uncharted waters whether we like it or not.

But because he’s a “Tyra”, and has business experience, he’s a lock.

 

[zipp]

Says who?

What bank, investment firm, or Country Club deals with contracts?

He’s in uncharted waters whether we like it or not.

But because he’s a “Tyra”, and has business experience, he’s a lock.

I know real estate contracts since I deal in real estate. My attorney-brother used to review UPS contracts in his job. Neither of us claim to "know contracts" generally.

Tyra must be Superman...

 

[BPGhost]

I know real estate contracts since I deal in real estate. My attorney-brother used to review UPS contracts in his job. Neither of us claim to "know contracts" generally.

Tyra must be Superman...

Dude - what’s to know? It has a start and end date and provisions for terminating it early for cause or, just because. It ain’t rocket science.

 

[HRTheCard]

Says who?

What bank, investment firm, or Country Club deals with contracts?

He’s in uncharted waters whether we like it or not.

But because he’s a “Tyra”, and has business experience, he’s a lock.

Ok

 

[Knucklehank1]

Says who?

What bank, investment firm, or Country Club deals with contracts?

He’s in uncharted waters whether we like it or not.

But because he’s a “Tyra”, and has business experience, he’s a lock.

I’m pretty sure someone who has run a private equity firm has plenty of experience with contracts. While most employees are at-will, I’d also venture to say he has dealt with plenty of personnel or contract worker contracts.

 

[zipp]

Dude - what’s to know? It has a start and end date and provisions for terminating it early for cause or, just because. It ain’t rocket science.

"Dude" I don't pretend to know contracts like Tyra evidently does. Pitino's last contract was 15 pages. There are enforceability issues, standards in that profession, etc. How much experience does Tyra have cosigning multimillion dollar coaching contracts? My guess is no more than I do.

And landing a coach is a lot more than a contract. I just piggybacked on that issue. He's gotta FIND and persuade the guy first...