But what are you basing your opinions on? None of us knows for sure what happened. To my knowledge, the NCAA hasn't released an official report, and neither has UofL. We suspect the allegations are bad based on the self-imposed ban, but who knows? The facts and reports may end up proving the UofL admin jumped the gun and over-extended on punishment.
I'm withholding judgment until I see at least one official report. And no, the book doesn't count, at least not for me.
This is correct. We are still in Step 1 of (at least) a six step process. There is no guarantee this is going to be over anytime soon.
Here is link to the NCAA's violation investigation and resolution process; it uses the recent Syracuse case as an example:
http://www.ncaaupdatesyr.com/process/
We are still in Step 1: Investigation.
After the investigation is complete, UofL will receive a Notice of Allegations (NoA). Syracuse received theirs in May 2014. That's step 2.
Step 3 is the school's response to the NoA. Syracuse filed their response in August 2014.
Step 4 is the hearing before the Committee on Infractions. Syracuse's hearing occurred in late October 2014.
Step 5 is the issuance of the NCAA report. Syracuse received their report on March 6th, 2015. Note that Syracuse instituted their postseason ban on Feb 4th, 2015, between steps 4 and 5.
Step 6 is the Appeal process. Syracuse did decide to appeal, and they won back 1 scholarship per year by appealing. The appeal process concluded in late November 2015 - so nearly 9 months after step 5.
In Louisville's case, it's possible that the 5 months between step 2 and step 4 could be shortened due to the joint nature of the UofL and NCAA investigations. And of course step 6 can be skipped if UofL agrees to the findings and proposed punishment.
So hypothetically, say the investigation wraps up in mid-March 2015.
A reasonable (accelerated) schedule would then be something like this:
Step 1 wraps up: mid-March 2016
Step 2: NoA issued mid-April 2016
Step 3: UofL files a quick response and agrees to all findings. mid May 2016
Step 4: committee on infractions hearing, July 2016 (but whether the NCAA would hold this type of meeting in the middle of summer, which is the off-season for academic institutions? This might then slide until September)
Step 5: NCAA issues report and announces penalties: November 2016
Step 6: if UofL appeals, expect the final results 10 months later: September 2017.
And it is important to keep in mind that any delay in completing any of the steps pushes the following steps out "further to the right".