A night game in Death Valley and the Cards are +10.5.

[CardX]

Not ideal. However, if you take a deeper look into the numbers, Clemson's advantage isn't all that noteworthy. They have the 53rd ranked defense. The Cards are 62. Clemson's D allows 348 YPG. The Cards, 359. Clemson gives up 23 PPG. UofL, almost 25. On the offensive side of things, the gap widens a little. Clemson's offense is ranked 5th. UofL is ranked 15th. Clemson puts up 490 YPG. UofL produces 460 YPG. Clemson scores 42 PPG. UofL averages 37 PPG.

Obviously, home field plays a significant role here. Clemson is certainly a little better. I look for a high scoring game. It will take a near mistake free performance by UofL to get the win. It can be done. Brohm owes us a big game this year, which he's typically good for. The Cards also showed a lot of grit last game. Hopefully, that momentum carries on to this Saturday.

ESPN's matchup predictor has this at Clemson 77%, UofL 33%. Sounds about right.

 

[beantowncard]

There was some analysis regarding who each team has faced. UofL’s overall schedule is significantly tougher, with three close losses vs Clemson’s 1 blowout loss (albeit close for a half). I think it’s about 60/40 given those facts.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Your home games are @ 9am your road games are at night. But I promise you, this is all very random.

 

[2330859]

For the most part, Clemson has been outstanding against their opponents running game, and those “3 and outs” result in a lot more offensive opportunities and points for the Tigers. Assuming Clemson defense is successful limiting our ability to run the ball (something that Clemson has does quite effectively), Jeff needs to put aside his natural instincts towards staying with a balanced offense, and focus on our passing game. I do not see us having success running against Clemson.

 

[cardrock]

For the most part, Clemson has been outstanding against their opponents running game, and those “3 and outs” result in a lot more offensive opportunities and points for the Tigers. Assuming Clemson defense is successful limiting our ability to run the ball (something that Clemson has does quite effectively), Jeff needs to put aside his natural instincts towards staying with a balanced offense, and focus on our passing game. I do not see us having success running against Clemson.

Yea because Clemson has only played one team this year with a winning record. And they lost that one.
Your point while it might be accurate, is just NOT a sound reason to favor Clemson. Because the numbers are deceptive. Clemson gives up an average of
Clemson gives up 130 rushing YPG
Louisville gives up 136 rushing YPG
and our schedule has been way way tougher.
We have faced 3 teams where their offense is in the top 25 with Rushing YPG
Clemson has played zero, zip, nada no team in the top 25 with rushing YPG
Just sayin. 😀

 

[ajgcardman]

Not ideal. However, if you take a deeper look into the numbers, Clemson's advantage isn't all that noteworthy. They have the 53rd ranked defense. The Cards are 62. Clemson's D allows 348 YPG. The Cards, 359. Clemson gives up 23 PPG. UofL, almost 25. On the offensive side of things, the gap widens a little. Clemson's offense is ranked 5th. UofL is ranked 15th. Clemson puts up 490 YPG. UofL produces 460 YPG. Clemson scores 42 PPG. UofL averages 37 PPG.

Obviously, home field plays a significant role here. Clemson is certainly a little better. I look for a high scoring game. It will take a near mistake free performance by UofL to get the win. It can be done. Brohm owes us a big game this year, which he's typically good for. The Cards also showed a lot of grit last game. Hopefully, that momentum carries on to this Saturday.

ESPN's matchup predictor has this at Clemson 77%, UofL 33%. Sounds about right.

Some food for thought, regarding strength of schedule:

• Clemson's opponents' offenses on the season have averaged a paltry 24.9 ppg while their opponents' defenses are giving up 28.7 ppg (meaning their opponents, excluding Georgia, suck), while the Cards opponents' offenses have scored a lofty 34.7 ppg and given up a much more stingy 22.3 ppg (much stiffer competition).
• Clemson has played only one team this year that averages 28+ ppg (Georgia at 34 ppg), while the Cards have played 5, 4 that average over 37 ppg (Miami, ND, SMU, & Jax St).
• Yes, Clemson "D" only gives up 23 ppg, but against teams' offenses that only score 25 ppg, or they hold opponent offenses to 2 points below what they normally score. Louisville gives up 25 ppg against offenses that score almost 35, or 10 points below what they normally score.
• Clemson scores 42 ppg against defenses that allow about 29 (+13), while Louisville scores 37 ppg against defenses that allow 22 (+15).
• Therefore, when you factor in "strength of opponent." one could clearly argue that Louisville's numbers are actually slightly better.

Unfortunately, the game is in Death Valley, the ACC will want Clemson to hold serve (we see what that does to officiating and video reviews), and Louisville is really banged up trying to complete a grueling 7-week grind against difficult competition, while Clemson comes in fresh after playing a much weaker schedule and enjoying a bye week with 2 weeks to prepare. Is that worth a 10-point spread? I guess we'll see. GO CARDS!

 

[Thecycle27]

Clemson has been starting really fast and Louisville has been terrible out of the gate. I thought the 1st half line would be a good bet but is at 7.5 with a total of 31 which is really high to me.

 

[CardHack]

To win at Clemson:

1. Those opportunities where the ball is hung up for Corey Thornton and Quincey Riley have to be intercepted not dropped. It's like fouling off a hanging slider instead of depositing it into the outfield stands. It's a momentum swing all it's own. They both seem like they are getting healthier which is making a difference in overall quality of coverage.

2. You always have to have a big night from your second or third option, and Chris Bell you are on the clock.

3. Protect Shough. Mills and Renardo were inserted against BC and it looked like a net positive.

An early score would be huge for this team, especially if it came on the back of a big play defensively or on special teams. We saw it against Miami in the 3rd quarter on consecutive plays; we need that Saturday night.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

Points to focus on

1. Clemson has won 45 of their last 47 at home. Their 2 losses? A 1 point loss to SC at home & an OT loss to FSU last year who went undefeated. They don't lose there often. It's at night too. It's a night game.

2. They are coming off a bye week & we are coming off a brutal stretch of games. We've played GT, ND, SMU, UVA, Miami, and BC all in a row and every one of those games pretty much came down to the last drive. We've had some injuries and Lacy won't be coming down there with us either. They got to rest up and we're going to be beat up.

3. They're a pretty good team. I don't know if they're elite, but they're great. They were up 52-7 on NC State before they called off the dogs. They were up 38-10 in the 4th quarter before UVA got some late garbage points(our only mutual opponents). Outside of their Georgia loss, they've pretty much dominated most all of their opponents. We have played better opponents. Neither team has beaten a good opponent, but Clemson hasn't struggled in their games where they're clearly better. So they seem to handle business.

4. This is probably their biggest home game this season too. They will be loud and they know winning this puts them in the driver's seat for an ACC title berth and moves them up in the rankings to possibly sneak in an at-large berth. They're playing for something at home in primetime.

5. Even in wins, we've played sloppy on the road the last 2 years. Can our team be mistake free facing one of the loudest crowds in football? It's one thing to close out wins against weak crowds at UVA and BC, but Death Valley is tough for everyone.

I personally just think it's the situation rather than the team we have. If we were coming off a bye and playing at home, I'd feel really good. But they are coming off a bye and are at home. We're beat up after a tough stretch of games.

 

[Guardman]

Clemson by 24. At home. Important to them. Blow out.

 

[Guardman]

And I pray that I'm wrong.

 

[Mayoman]

And I pray that I'm wrong.

I fear you could be right and hope you are wrong. Keeping it to single digit deficit would be nice though. Seems like 7 has been our MO this year so far.

 

[Guardman]

I fear you could be right and hope you are wrong. Keeping it to single digit deficit would be nice though. Seems like 7 has been our MO this year so far.

7 would seem like a WIN.

 

[cardrock]

7 would seem like a WIN.

OMG… you 2 sound like 2 women in a salon
getting their nails done. Real men don’t accept moral victories! Grow a pair… mayo - you must have lost your mind. 😉

 

[CardX]

7 would seem like a WIN.

And if you take the Cards +10.5, it would be an actual win for your wallet. I normally do not bet on the Cards. I'm not starting now. This game is a heart vs head thing.

 

[Mayoman]

OMG… you 2 sound like 2 women in a salon
getting their nails done. Real men don’t accept moral victories! Grow a pair… mayo - you must have lost your mind. 😉

When you find it please bring it back to me sir.

Your angst is directerd wrongly at me...where it should be at G-man for his 24 point spred. If the Cards were to win with how they have been playing, I will be shocked...shocked I tell ya.

And Clem son hasmuch more riding on this than the Cards do and you know that to be true.

 

[2330859]

Comparative statistics and opponent records are worthy considerations for determining spreads, but my point is more specifically about our run game against a Clemson defense that is simply superior to our ground game. Again, just my own opinion, I believe our only way to steal a win in Death Valley is executing a flawless passing exhibition with a balanced distribution between our TEs, our WRs and RBs as a safety valve.

Shough is capable of being the difference in a game like this if he gets the support that he needs.

 

[Thecycle27]

This is an awful spot. Louisville is coming in after 7 highly competitive and physical games. Clemson coming in off a bye. It is a night game. They are going to have to play really good and Clemson is going to have to play just OK. Never know but really a up hill battle.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

If the Cards aren't good enough to compete, they just aren't. I agree with everything that's been posted. Ultimately, they walk in as firm underdogs with nothing to lose. It's a great chance to get a win that would get a ton of attention. Or, at least put on an entertaining effort with heads held high.

We know Brooks is bringing it. Hopefully they can get him going early and often.

I believe the only way they pull this off is if they do some unconventional stuff. Not sure if they block well enough to get into the bag of tricks but I believe we're going to have to try something in that regard. Or fake a kick, or punt, etc.

 

[Louis III]

If Louisville is within a TD with 5 minutes to go in the first half, they will have a very solid chance to win this game. Our starts have not been good and had every opportunity in the world to pull every one of the losses out. Poor execution, some interesting playcalling. and few questionable calls have cost us dearly!

 

[LeFors4Ever]

I again will say this team is good enough to win at Clemson. The talent and what we've shown this year proves it.

I just hate the situation of the game.

I won't be surprised with a win at all, but I'm going to say I'm expecting to lose.