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The MYTH that UK is "closer" to U of L after last year's game

. Charlie Strong left Petrino in pretty good shape when he took over. He is responsible the the 10 players on the UL team that were just drafted. .


This assertion has been made multiple times, and it isn't accurate. James Sample was drafted last year, and was a Petrino recruit (JUCO) ... but yes, Charlie's stamp on the program has been large, and will still be felt in the next couple of years.

I have a feeling that U of L will have another 7-8 players drafted next year, and 3-4 of those are Petrino recruits.

One of the things I was concerned with in the re-hiring of Petrino was with recruiting. In his first stint here, it wasn't all that great. And Charlie was a helluva a recruiter. All that said, up to this point, I've been pleasantly surprised at the level Petrino has recruited. We'll see if he can develop these kids like he has in the past, but if he does, then we should at the very least maintain our level of success, if not build on it.

But I digress from the main point of this topic ...

Last year, UK benefited from a bye week before the game, and the fact that U of L just came off an emotional victory at Notre Dame. The "energy" exhibited by some of the UK players before the game showed where UK's heads were. U of L's kids weren't at that level early on, and this cost the Cards early. Kudo's to the UK kids, and a bitch slap to the U of L staff for not being ready to meet that level of emotional intensity.

But .... Add to those facts that a sparingly played QB had to come in the game for U of L, which directly contributed to 2 touchdowns for UK, and the hole the Cards had to dig themselves out of was pretty big. Yet ... dig themselves out they did. The stats I started this thread with bear that out. U of L was pretty dominant, with a couple exceptions.

We'll see what Stoops can do with a roster that should be 80% of his making. The Joker excuses really can't be leaned on anymore. If UK has truly been recruiting where they've been credited for, that should show up this season.
 
I do think that UL and UK are really close now. Last year it took some huge numbers by UL to win the game and a drive in the last 3 mins to get the winning score... Stats can be misleading in games, and can be skewed to support different arguments.

Its definitely true that Stoops inherited a mess on from Joker. The players Joker recruited were mostly MAC level players...

Personally I hope both teams continue to recruit at a high level. I would love to see this rivalry become one of the biggest in the nation and it can only do that with both teams performing at a high level. Having both teams performing well in the respective conferences will bode well for both Universities going forward...
There was nothing misleading about the stats in last year's game. U of L dominated the stats, made more mistakes, and barely pulled out the win as a result. You can also watch the game and see that.

LPT fans continue down the wrong path en masse... Joker recruited better than any LPT coach before him who didn't cheat. His classes averaged at or sl. below three stars (Rivals). Stupes is at or sl. above three stars. That difference ain't gonna matter if Stupes proves to be the coach that most of us think he is.

This rivalry will never see its potential because your school doesn't want that. LPT did everything it could to avoid it or kill it when they had some control over the game being played. Now, most of the control rests with the conferences. But small-minded thinking, inept program management, and outright subordination to basketball will keep LPT football close to where it is currently. U of L will have to manage its half of the bargain and accept whatever product LPT puts on the field in exchange.

LPT Football: When is Big Blue Madness?...
 
This assertion has been made multiple times, and it isn't accurate. James Sample was drafted last year, and was a Petrino recruit (JUCO) ... but yes, Charlie's stamp on the program has been large, and will still be felt in the next couple of years.

I have a feeling that U of L will have another 7-8 players drafted next year, and 3-4 of those are Petrino recruits.

One of the things I was concerned with in the re-hiring of Petrino was with recruiting. In his first stint here, it wasn't all that great. And Charlie was a helluva a recruiter. All that said, up to this point, I've been pleasantly surprised at the level Petrino has recruited. We'll see if he can develop these kids like he has in the past, but if he does, then we should at the very least maintain our level of success, if not build on it.

But I digress from the main point of this topic ...

Last year, UK benefited from a bye week before the game, and the fact that U of L just came off an emotional victory at Notre Dame. The "energy" exhibited by some of the UK players before the game showed where UK's heads were. U of L's kids weren't at that level early on, and this cost the Cards early. Kudo's to the UK kids, and a bitch slap to the U of L staff for not being ready to meet that level of emotional intensity.

But .... Add to those facts that a sparingly played QB had to come in the game for U of L, which directly contributed to 2 touchdowns for UK, and the hole the Cards had to dig themselves out of was pretty big. Yet ... dig themselves out they did. The stats I started this thread with bear that out. U of L was pretty dominant, with a couple exceptions.

We'll see what Stoops can do with a roster that should be 80% of his making. The Joker excuses really can't be leaned on anymore. If UK has truly been recruiting where they've been credited for, that should show up this season.
When we put the beat down on them this year, they will revert back to blaming their grueling SEC schedule and say their talent is still another year away in development. It's the same mantra they have used for decades.
 
The myth goes beyond the UofL-UK series. UK fans always talk about how they're getting closer to teams like Tennessee, Florida, and Georgia. But the reality is, UK is going to have 1 or 2 chances in 10 years or so of beating those teams. If they get close and lose, it doesn't mean they'll break through and win next time. It means they missed their chance for quite a while.

Their ship DOES come in from time to time. For instance, they beat Georgia in 3 of the past 20 years. They beat UT in 2011. SC 5 times in the last 20 years.

UK reminds me a lot of Purdue, though Purdue is a little better. Purdue has beaten Michigan 4 of the past 20 years, Ohio State 5 of 20 years, and 5 of 20 against Notre Dame.

It's not about UK pulling even with teams and competing with them. It's about that, to steal a basketball term, "One Shining Moment." They have to make it happen when they can. They had a shot to get a rare win against Louisville last year. It may be a long time before they get close again.
 
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...UK reminds me a lot of Purdue, though Purdue is a little better. Purdue has beaten Michigan 4 of the past 20 years, Ohio State 5 of 20 years, and 5 of 20 against Notre Dame...
BCS doormats in good conferences get a gazillion opportunities to knock off a heavyweight. When it occasionally happens, it's just statistics evening out or coming into play.

No way in hell U of L loses to FSU, Clemson, or any SEC team thirty years in a row like LPT has managed to do with good teams. Your football program has to be a world class embarrassment to accomplish mind-blowing things like that.

LPT Football: In a class by itself...
 
I have yet to see any team finish the season with 7 1/2 wins. How is that going to happen?

IMO UofL will win 8 or 9 games, and possibly more with a bowl win. UofK has 8 home games, and might end up winning 3 or 4 of those games. I think UofK can beat LA-Layfette, but that's not a given. UofK should be able to handle EKU and Charlotte. That's 3. It'll be a tall order for the Cats to beat Florida (haven't done so in close to 40 years.) Missouri is a possible win, then again, it was supposed to have been a win last year too. It didn't happen. Auburn? Not likely. Tennessee? Not likely. UofL? Again, not likely.

So which 6 games is UofK suppose to win? I am really interested in your answer.

I think this year for UK they will win those games that they should. That is 5-7 games
 
BCS doormats in good conferences get a gazillion opportunities to knock off a heavyweight. When it occasionally happens, it's just statistics evening out or coming into play.

No way in hell U of L loses to FSU, Clemson, or any SEC team thirty years in a row like LPT has managed to do with good teams. Your football program has to be a world class embarrassment to accomplish mind-blowing things like that.

LPT Football: In a class by itself...

Seems to be an enigma!
 
  • UK struck out on their top 5 candidates before Stoops came begging for an opportunity to be a head coach like his brother. No established coach would jump at that graveyard known as Wildcat football. Stoops really had nothing to lose.
Dis agree, Stoops is on a Win/win course. If he wins ...at #UK wow! His stock is tremendously elevated as a HC!
 
I do think that UL and UK are really close now. Last year it took some huge numbers by UL to win the game and a drive in the last 3 mins to get the winning score. Marcus McWilson dropped an INT on that last drive that would have sealed the game for UK. Stats can be misleading in games, and can be skewed to support different arguments. Its definitely true that Stoops inherited a mess on from Joker. The players Joker recruited were mostly MAC level players. Charlie Strong left Petrino in pretty good shape when he took over. He is responsible the the 10 players on the UL team that were just drafted. Personally I hope both teams continue to recruit at a high level. I would love to see this rivalry become one of the biggest in the nation and it can only do that with both teams performing at a high level. Having both teams performing well in the respective conferences will bode well for both Universities going forward. Good luck on the upcoming season and hopefully both teams are playing for Better bowls not to be eligible.

Talent wise yes, but coaching yet to been seen!
 
I do think that UL and UK are really close now. Last year it took some huge numbers by UL to win the game and a drive in the last 3 mins to get the winning score. Marcus McWilson dropped an INT on that last drive that would have sealed the game for UK. Stats can be misleading in games, and can be skewed to support different arguments. Its definitely true that Stoops inherited a mess on from Joker. The players Joker recruited were mostly MAC level players. Charlie Strong left Petrino in pretty good shape when he took over. He is responsible the the 10 players on the UL team that were just drafted. Personally I hope both teams continue to recruit at a high level. I would love to see this rivalry become one of the biggest in the nation and it can only do that with both teams performing at a high level. Having both teams performing well in the respective conferences will bode well for both Universities going forward. Good luck on the upcoming season and hopefully both teams are playing for Better bowls not to be eligible.

Strong Defensively yes,... Offensively NOI!
 
BCS doormats in good conferences get a gazillion opportunities to knock off a heavyweight. When it occasionally happens, it's just statistics evening out or coming into play.

No way in hell U of L loses to FSU, Clemson, or any SEC team thirty years in a row like LPT has managed to do with good teams. Your football program has to be a world class embarrassment to accomplish mind-blowing things like that.

LPT Football: In a class by itself...

That Florida streak is another good example of the myth vs. reality. UK had a rare chance to have a One Shining Moment against the Gators last year. The myth among the UK fanbase is they will go ahead and get the win this season. Reality, they missed out on a golden opportunity that likely will not roll around again for several years.
 
There so much to reply to here. I'm on mobile, so I'm just going to post a general reply. It's too difficult to quote and reply to each poster.

First, talent evaluation and development is very important. I haven't seen anyone argue otherwise. But, recruiting rankings are equally important. Since 2002 around 1,500 games have been played between "BCS" schools, ND, BYU, and Boise St. The team with the roster made up the higher ranked recruiting class has won 2/3 of the time. And the greater the disparity in the recruiting rankings the larger the margin of victory. You can look at the UofL/UK series as an example of this.

Second, Wisconsin, MSU, and Arkansas have made a living recruiting tall Oline players and then adding weight and developing them. What's funny about this is that Joker is friends with Wisconsin's coach, and Joker's Oline recruiting philosophy was borrowed from him. I suppose that's where talent evaluation and development come into play lol.

Finally, using Wisconsin and Michigan State as examples to downplay the significance of recruiting is extremely flawed.

First, while for the most part their classes aren't ranked highly nationally, they are both consistently ranked in the top half of their conference, which is their competition, and where they get a majority of their wins.

Second, when you look at the way both of those schools recruit it's obvious they are very selective. Rivals only uses the top 20 players from each schools class, and there was one year Wisconsin only took 12 players. They still finished high in their conference, and had a respectable national ranking in spite of that.

Which brings up my final point in regards to those schools. While they may not have classes that are ranked the highest nationally, they are extremely selective in recruiting, and are consistently ranked below teams that they have a higher average star rating than. They just don't take as many players.

You guys can keep downplaying the recruiting numbers and their impact, but it's all very real and the numbers support it. UofL has routinely recruited better than UK and its reflected in the wins. UofL also recruited in the upper half of their conference under both Petrino and Strong, and its reflected in the wins.
 
You can put what a UK football fan will say on repeat and play it yearly. UK football is like USF hoops. Every 20 years they might have decent season but, other than that they stink. Is what it is. UK fans don't live in reality though so their yearly spew of idiocy's is expected.
 
There so much to reply to here. I'm on mobile, so I'm just going to post a general reply. It's too difficult to quote and reply to each poster.

First, talent evaluation and development is very important. MOST IMPORTANT BY FAR

You guys can keep downplaying the recruiting numbers and their impact, but it's all very real and the numbers support it. UofL has routinely recruited better than UK and its reflected in the wins. UofL also recruited in the upper half of their conference under both Petrino and Strong, and its reflected in the wins.


There are many other examples of recruiting rankings being flawed other than Wisconsin and Arkansas and Michigan State ... Kansas State routinely is out recruited by Texas by 30-40 spots. Yet until two years ago, they hadn't lost to them in over10 years. And they beat them again last year, starting their streak over again. There are countless other examples, but I don't have the time to dig those up, nor do I want to. You can cling to the recruiting rankings as some sort of fail-safe, football guarantee.

Recruiting rankings in football can't come CLOSE to the accuracy of recruiting rankings in basketball, which is what most UK fans use as their "baseline", because it is what they know. I don't know where Stoops' classes have been ranked, so forgive me because the numbers I will use will be off. But if Stoops is really bringing in top 25 recruiting classes (or has in 2 of his 3 classes), this means that more than half of his roster is made up of a team that should be ranked in the mid-20s, low-30s. All the teams ranked in the mid-20s low-30s have one thing in common --- they go bowling.

At some point you have to coach em up. Stoops hasn't shown that to me -- admittedly I'm not following it as closely as you are -- but I'd expect a former defensive coordinator to immediately have an impact on at least that side of the ball when he finally becomes a head coach. UK's defense has been marginal at best the last 3 years.


 
There so much to reply to here. I'm on mobile, so I'm just going to post a general reply. It's too difficult to quote and reply to each poster.

First, talent evaluation and development is very important. I haven't seen anyone argue otherwise. But, recruiting rankings are equally important. Since 2002 around 1,500 games have been played between "BCS" schools, ND, BYU, and Boise St. The team with the roster made up the higher ranked recruiting class has won 2/3 of the time. And the greater the disparity in the recruiting rankings the larger the margin of victory. You can look at the UofL/UK series as an example of this.

Second, Wisconsin, MSU, and Arkansas have made a living recruiting tall Oline players and then adding weight and developing them. What's funny about this is that Joker is friends with Wisconsin's coach, and Joker's Oline recruiting philosophy was borrowed from him. I suppose that's where talent evaluation and development come into play lol.

Finally, using Wisconsin and Michigan State as examples to downplay the significance of recruiting is extremely flawed.

First, while for the most part their classes aren't ranked highly nationally, they are both consistently ranked in the top half of their conference, which is their competition, and where they get a majority of their wins.

Second, when you look at the way both of those schools recruit it's obvious they are very selective. Rivals only uses the top 20 players from each schools class, and there was one year Wisconsin only took 12 players. They still finished high in their conference, and had a respectable national ranking in spite of that.

Which brings up my final point in regards to those schools. While they may not have classes that are ranked the highest nationally, they are extremely selective in recruiting, and are consistently ranked below teams that they have a higher average star rating than. They just don't take as many players.

You guys can keep downplaying the recruiting numbers and their impact, but it's all very real and the numbers support it. UofL has routinely recruited better than UK and its reflected in the wins. UofL also recruited in the upper half of their conference under both Petrino and Strong, and its reflected in the wins.


Ok....explain Missouri...
 
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There are outliers to trends, but is anyone seriously refuting the idea that teams that recruit better win more games (again, in general)?

The recruiting rankings don't predict perfectly how teams will play (many examples of teams over and under performing based on recruiting have already been mentioned), but they certainly give you an idea. If you selected ten random games played in 2014, and gave me only the recruiting rankings for 2011, 2012, and 2013 classes of the two teams playing, without any other information, I bet I could do pretty well picking winners.

"At some point you have to coach em up." 100% agreed. The jury is still out on Coach Stoops for the time being.
 
or explain TCU or Baylor?

Or explain the success that both Mizzou and TX A&M had shortly after entering the SEC with B12 lite players?

The examples that don't support that particular posters (Global Hovak) stubborn closed minded argument.

TAMU had a very talented QB that played a big part in their success their first two years in the SEC. We saw what happened last year without him...

Yes, there are teams that achieve great on the field success without great recruiting classes. As with everything there are exceptions. But, that's what those teams are, exceptions.

You guys are pointing to them and propping them up as if they are the rule. They're not. As I said earlier, since Rivals began doing rankings with the 2002 class there have been over 1,500 games played between "BCS" schools, ND, BYU, and Boise State. The teams with the rosters compiled of the higher rated recruiting classes have won 2/3 of the games, and the larger the disparity in the recruiting rankings the larger the margin of victory. That is the rule. There is no spinning. Those are the numbers.
 
There are outliers to trends, but is anyone seriously refuting the idea that teams that recruit better win more games (again, in general)?

The recruiting rankings don't predict perfectly how teams will play (many examples of teams over and under performing based on recruiting have already been mentioned), but they certainly give you an idea. If you selected ten random games played in 2014, and gave me only the recruiting rankings for 2011, 2012, and 2013 classes of the two teams playing, without any other information, I bet I could do pretty well picking winners.

"At some point you have to coach em up." 100% agreed. The jury is still out on Coach Stoops for the time being.

There is actually a college football betting strategy where you place your wager strictly based on looking at each team's last five recruiting classes. It's pretty successful, and becomes even more dependable if you factor in home field advantage, transfers, roster attrition, coaching continuity, etc.
 
You can put what a UK football fan will say on repeat and play it yearly... UK fans don't live in reality though so their yearly spew of idiocy's is expected.
And they certainly have a hard time with facts. Saying crap like this without facts to back it up...

"UofL has routinely recruited better than UK and it's reflected in the wins..."

I posted this a couple weeks ago in response to a similarly uninformed LPT fan. Going back on line as far as Rivals reports data (2002 recruiting classes), the average national ranking for LPT's class was 52.8. The average ranking for U of L's classes has been 51.2. You couldn't land those numbers that close--intentionally give the programs equal talent--if you tried. (And for an idiot who wants to hang his hat on that 1.6 difference, the standard deviation in each set of data is around 20.)

When they show how little grasp they have of the facts, it completely undermines whatever other points they're trying to make. Fortunately, they open their mouths, and we have all the proof we need.

LPT Football: You'd think our fans would learn to STFU...
 
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Bottom line; here's how its going to go down. Eventually UK WILL win a game in the series again. And when they do, they will proclaim "I told you so" in regards to all of the reasons they had projected that would lead to their win. The only problem with that is, they predict victory and project the reason for their win every year, so it loses it's predictive value. If you predict victory every year, following with the "blind squirrel" premise, you will be right eventually. And this isn't to denigrate the UK posters; it would be the same if the shoes was on the other foot, which it was for 4 years. The home town fans are always going to envision how a win will come about for their team; and occasionally, they will be right.

That is some impressive condescension. I think "broken clock" is a better metaphor, FWIW.

The fact of the matter is that, in reality, few Kentucky fans expected to beat Louisville last year. This year, many more think it within the realm of possibility. That's based on a number of things, none of which are news to you so I won't bother repeating. At the end of the day, as has been said and said again, none of it matters except the 60 mins between the lines in November. Looking forward to it.
 
The one thing you have working for you with LPT football is that they will usually find a way to lose. I recall making that comment to my wife last year during the final game.

It's not brave fan-talk or "condescension". It's just history. You don't post some of the incredible feats of ineptitude that LPT has over the years without making it happen yourself. No way can you lose thirty times in a row to anyone this side of the Lombardi Packer teams without helping that record along, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

LPT usually doesn't know how to win on its own against another team worth a damn. Takes some major foo-bars on the other side of the field. And when it comes close to happening--witness Florida and Louisville last year--all that means is not to expect it again. Each of those games this year will likely be a rout.

LPT Football: Analysis ain't our strong suit...
 
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You can put what a UK football fan will say on repeat and play it yearly. UK football is like USF hoops. Every 20 years they might have decent season but, other than that they stink. Is what it is. UK fans don't live in reality though so their yearly spew of idiocy's is expected.
Well said & so true!!
 
When I read the things uk fans post, it just lets me know that I don't know much about football...or they are just plain backwards.
 
How does Public Enemy engage those idiots over there? They'll make your head spin just reading their inanity. This is the year! We should beat UL every year because we're Kentucky. Those fans are freaking nuts
 
In my opinion if uakay has no hope for a winning season that day then it just might get ugly, real ugly for the kayuts.

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
 
"We outgained them" "We have bridged the talent gap" "You were lucky Bonnafon got hurt" "You couldn't run on us; we ran on you" "You won't have Parker to throw to"

Frankly all of those are nothing more than illustrations of the losing process because in them the reasons they lost and have lost are missing; you lost because you didn't make plays. When the opportunity was afforded on a silver platter--an easy interception is dropped, a mind numbing penalty is committed--the play wasn't made. When the opportunity was afforded Kyle Bolin on his first and third plays from scrimmage down double digits, he got the ball to an Eli Rogers and Devante Parker who make plays necessary to win. Deep in his own territory in the fourth quarter in a one possession game and facing 3rd and long he makes a great throw trusting James Quick to make a great catch. Ultimately lost in the haze is that when Bolin came in it lit a fire under us; by comparison Kentucky's intensity level on defense was stunted by confusion. Our intensity level went up seeing us move the ball suddenly to an extent we hadn't seen all season regardless of QB or opponent. When opportunity was afforded us...we grabbed it in ways we didn't against FSU. When opportunity was presented to Kentucky...they peed down their leg.
 
"They peed down their leg." Pretty normal stuff for the kayuts. :)

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
 
If LPT players, coaches, and fans regularly start saying things like "we lost because we're not as good and we can't execute", I'll get concerned. The first step in addressing a problem is realizing you have one.

LPT Football: Bigger, stronger, faster...
 
If LPT players, coaches, and fans regularly start saying things like "we lost because we're not as good and we can't execute", I'll get concerned. The first step in addressing a problem is realizing you have one.

LPT Football: Bigger, stronger, faster...


I don't think you have anything to worry about.
 
I have no idea.

Why would I?

UofL is replacing 3 OL, the entire wide receiving core, 10 NFL draft picks. I have no idea what to expect out of them. There is a lot coming back on D so there is hope there. I don't know if Petrino will have the offense clicking or if it will struggle a lot. There are so many new players that it is wide open.

UK? I don't know anything about them. I know the D lost Dupree and Smith and they were their big play makers. I only know a few names of their players. I know their QB is back, and their best RB. Other than that I don't know much about them.

I know UofL fans want UK to be bad and I know UK fans want UofL to be bad. Just the typical fan talk with agendas out the bazoo is pretty meaningless and the type of stuff that gives the internet message boards the rep for being full of idiots and crazies.

There are so many unknowns that I don't know what to expect out of either of these teams.

In years past Petrino would usually get things cranked up in year two but that was when a good core of the team was coming back and had a year of experience with his system, this year most of the team is new so I don't know how much expectation I can have for a high octane offense.
 
The game this year is a toss up, whether anyone on either side wants to admit it. Many of the playmakers (last years game) from both sides are gone. Dupree pressured the QB all day and Parker burned the secondary all day.

UL definitely made a couple more plays when it mattered last year - win was earned.

Next year will come down to which QB improves over the season the most...because both teams have major question marks there - and neither have a security blanket this year like Parker was for UL last year. Pure Stud. Injuries could also change things, but lets hope not.
 
Devonte is gone, that is true, but Devonta is coming. If Towles and Barker survive the SEC gauntlet, they're going to get to know Fields and company far more than they care for. Prepare for a beat down!
 
I believe UK is getting closer because they're building depth, talented depth. I believe the staff has a better eye for sleepers, which is what UK is gonna need to make the next step.
Towels has every tool physically to be a great QB, he just has to get it together between the ears and they may be a big leap, I hope not.
As for the coaches, Petrino is a damn good coach, no one can deny that, I think Stoops will be.
I too believe it'll be a toss up come November, but who knows its a long way till then..
 
Catfanlondon, you have a selective memory. I guess you forgot about early in the first quarter when Burgess dropped a sure pick6 that would've sucked all the life out of UKy's early momentum. But hey, shortly after that, leading 3-0, Towles threw a beauty to a wide open receiver that couldn't make the catch. None of that matters because the plays weren't made.

Louisville won the game because Louisville had the better team, and far and away the better coaching staff.

Last year's game was close because UKy got away with personal foul after personal foul that went unflagged. Like driving Dyer, and the constant contact and late hits on Devante (even on his first TD catch). Football is a game of intensity and focus. I imagine the Cards had trouble when they see play after play of KY getting away with this nonsense.

The gap has not closed. It's drifting further apart. Kentucky is still coached by Stoops; Louisville still has Petrino.

That said, upsets can happen. UKy could surprise the Cards in one game if the ball bounces their way. But I wouldn't count on getting away with those shenanigans again. And this year, the Cats won't have an extra week to prepare.
 
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