Next Year's Attendance...

[the artist FKA zipp]

I'm just about 100% sure that Payne is back next year, but the question is always raised about the effect on attendance either way. Here's my up-to-date estimate based on current attendance, the last quarter's (thru 12/31) arena related revenues, and what U of L budgeted prior to the season. I always welcome opposing viewpoints or constructive critique of my own analysis.

The following graph plots actual attendance per game since 2017 along the solid black line. The RED segment on that line is simply a bridge over the actual Covid number for 2021. The dotted segments are/were budgeted or estimated values.

U of L doesn't publish an attendance budget per se, but they budget the various components of arena related revenues: ticket sales, suite rentals, concessions, parking, etc. From these actual revenues for 2022 and the 2023 budget, I estimate that U of L was expecting an increase in attendance from 2022's average of 13,242 per game (the "Mack/Pegues" data point) to a figure of around 14,800 this year ("2023 BUDGET"). We were averaging 12,534 ("Payne") prior to today's FSU game.

So the question is what about next year? Payne was a new coach this year as would be another new coach if Payne is bought out. Applying a similar budgeting process as 2023, my guess is that U of L would project around 14,000 ("BUYOUT BUDGET?") for 2024 if Payne is indeed bought out. And simply eyeballing the overall downward trend in this plot--what I would call a long term rate of attrition--we will average around 11,500 if Payne returns.

That's revenue associated with a 1,500 increase if Payne leaves, or a 1,000 decrease if he stays. Anyone disagree with that take so far?...

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Keep the data coming. And I like your summary of your data feel free to hit us with your bottom line hypothesis when you do.

I agree KP probably is the HC next year. I would not be surprised if he is here for years.

We'll see.

 

[Knucklehank1]

Herein lies the problem. I don’t see a 1500 increase if Payne leaves but I see a 1000 decrease if he stays. So the purely financial justification isn’t there to send him packing. A thousand fan decrease doesn’t come close to equaling his buyout. UofL bball is a big financial commitment for a fan. And once a person who is paying a $1000+ donation plus cost of tickets walks, it is very, very tough to get them back. Some of this is just due to the changing dynamics of how we watch sports. There isn’t a coach out there (ie: the Brohm effect) that would immediately sharply drive up season ticket sales. By far the best case scenario is that Payne gets his sh!t together and gets this train on the tracks.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I agree with the dynamics at work as highlighted by @Knucklehank1. My analysis indicates that the effects on attendance--up or down--are more muted than many people would expect. This year with a new coach and some guarded optimism, U of L only budgeted a 5% increase in these gameday revenue streams.

A conservative approximation of the value of a fan in attendance is in the vicinity of $50 per game, or on a 20-game home schedule, about a thousand dollars for the season. I can present some background info for that number if desired. A thousand fans on average for the season is a million dollars in revenue. And it's correct concluding that even a 1,500 figure will not pay the salary of a new coach that will likely meet the expectations of this fanbase.

Since Mack and Payne will both receive buyout money on an annualized basis--Payne"s salary and Mack's $1.6 mil/yr--the math won't unfortunately change NEXT year at this time. It would only be one more year of financial pain next year instead of two now. (Mack's buyout ends the year after next.) A miracle start by Brohm this year is the financial game changer we can hope for...

 

[KerryRhodes]

I would not be surprised if he is here for years.

 

[Thecycle27]

I never go to a game to watch a coach. I appreciate the skill and effort of the players. If that doesn’t improve neither will the attendance. KP won’t survive another year.

People would have handled losing as long as they played hard and together. It is incredibly illuminating that Okafor plays harder than our veterans. That really explains the whole lack of effort all year. The leaders of the team are the biggest culprits in the effort area. I honestly can’t understand how older players are this inconsistent with their effort.

 

[Guardman]

I'm just about 100% sure that Payne is back next year, but the question is always raised about the effect on attendance either way. Here's my up-to-date estimate based on current attendance, the last quarter's (thru 12/31) arena related revenues, and what U of L budgeted prior to the season. I always welcome opposing viewpoints or constructive critique of my own analysis.

The following graph plots actual attendance per game since 2017 along the solid black line. The RED segment on that line is simply a bridge over the actual Covid number for 2021. The dotted segments are/were budgeted or estimated values.

U of L doesn't publish an attendance budget per se, but they budget the various components of arena related revenues: ticket sales, suite rentals, concessions, parking, etc. From these actual revenues for 2022 and the 2023 budget, I estimate that U of L was expecting an increase in attendance from 2022's average of 13,242 per game (the "Mack/Pegues" data point) to a figure of around 14,800 this year ("2023 BUDGET"). We were averaging 12,534 ("Payne") prior to today's FSU game.

So the question is what about next year? Payne was a new coach this year as would be another new coach if Payne is bought out. Applying a similar budgeting process as 2023, my guess is that U of L would project around 14,000 ("BUYOUT BUDGET?") for 2024 if Payne is indeed bought out. And simply eyeballing the overall downward trend in this plot--what I would call a long term rate of attrition--we will average around 11,500 if Payne returns.

That's revenue associated with a 1,500 increase if Payne leaves, or a 1,000 decrease if he stays. Anyone disagree with that take so far?...

Good Work, Zipp. Only one minor "complaint". While truncated graphs are best used to illustrate more clearly an amount of change, they also can exaggerate an overall situation.

Personally in my 45 years of engineering, business and general management work I never allowed or used a truncated graph. They can distort reality for an average person.

But you are using good data. And I think your estimates are pretty solid.

 

[Tenncard]

Makes sense, but I honestly don't think it's linear. If we start out 2-10, or something along those lines, the fan frustration will grow more quickly the deeper we get into the session. The fan base has been somewhat resilient in attendance this year but there are limits. It's expensive to attend those games and if there's no hope on the horizon, busts in seats will drop precipitously. .500 is not going to sustaina Louisvillehoops fanbase either.

 

[Mike'sMarbles]

Zipp's analysis makes sense to me. I wouldn't expect much of a bump from Payne leaving, unless we brought in a coach that really galvanized the fanbase. Nate Oats, Musselman, really any of the realistic candidates aren't going to do that. It'd take a Jay Wright, or someone with a huge name no one is thinking about, to maybe get people excited enough to massively improve ticket sales.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

It’s not linear if for no other reason than we can’t go negative on attendance! I’d expect a diminishing rate of decline. One reason I was comfortable with +1,500/-1,000 estimates.

@Guardman what do you mean by a “truncated graph?” Never too late for an old guy to learn something… 🤨

Might surprise some people if the ticket buying fans at this point are dug in, i.e., inelastic demand. Even heard some folks talking about an opportunity to improve their seat locations. Those are people looking at the long term…

 

[Guardman]

Typically a graph where the Y value does not start at 0.

 

[Guardman]

Such graphs distort or emphasize change.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Got it. I presented it that way to show resolution particularly in the 2022-2024 data and estimates.

On the range in the graph, I would have no issue claiming the trend down has been linear.

You could calculate an r-squared simply to reveal how much of the decline was (not) coaching related. Looks more to me like general attrition in the ticket-paying portion of our fanbase…

 

[uoflcardsfan]

I'm not worried about attendance , surly all the people that basically forced Josh Heird to hire Kenny Payne will start showing up any day now , won't they ?