National Stats for Roster Attrition

[zipp]

I looked up the Rivals 100 kids in the 2011 class. This is the class that produced Wayne Blackshear and the other kids nationally who would be seniors this year with normal academic progression. Here is the attrition rate for those kids by class ranking group:

OVERALL: 72% (or a 28% "survival rate")
Top 20: 90%
#21-50: 63%
#51-100: 69%

U of L had five kids in that class, one of whom made it to Senior Day. That 20% survival rate compares to the 28% stat above.

Here are the Power 5 schools that recruited kids in the 2011 with at least one of those seniors left on their rosters:

Alabama (2 kids)
Arkansas
Duke (2)
Florida State
Illinois
Louisville
Michigan State
Ohio State (2)
Oklahoma State
Stanford
Syracuse
Texas
UCLA

That's 13 schools in all of the P5 conferences. Pretty exclusive company. Of course, this attrition covers all categories--some good and some bad. I make no effort to explain or justify any of it.

Just food for thought when you hear how many problems U of L has recruiting and holding onto kids. When you consider the demands that Pitino puts on recruits, our results probably aren't that bad...

 

[rentalman]

Dammit Zipp, don't confuse us with facts.

 

[OneEarWonder]

FACTS have NO place here!!!

I'm curious what the ratio of departure reasons were - transfer, NBA draft, expulsion, graduation, etc.

I've never thought UL had a problem recruiting. RP has a reputation and a type of player he wants... and he is one of the most successful coaches in college basketball... so I'd say it works.

I'd love to see more college seniors... but having 1-2 each year has become the norm for most P5 schools, as your numbers support. (Not counting walk on / student managers)

 

[zipp]

Originally posted by OneEarWonder:
...I'm curious what the ratio of departure reasons were - transfer, NBA draft, expulsion, graduation, etc...That's a lot deeper analysis than I'm prepared to do. For sure, there are good and bad reasons why a high school recruit didn't make it four years at one place. They're all lumped together in the stats in the OP.

When someone wants to take a shot at your school, however, they usually lump all these categories together as well. An example is the question "who's left on the U of L team from two years ago?" The fundamental basis for the question is to take a shot at our recruiting and player retention. And it glosses over the departures of guys like Montrezl and Terry who are leaving early for the NBA.

So, the "lumped" stats are still a good basis to make a comparison to other schools...