It’s interesting to read this now, especially playing Pitt tomorrow night.
I do feel in the long run that we’ll be in the Big 12, probably by 2030 or so.
Big Ten Internal Expansion List
- Thread starter LeFors4Ever
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It’s interesting to read this now, especially playing Pitt tomorrow night.
I do feel in the long run that we’ll be in the Big 12, probably by 2030 or so.
Not shocking, I suspect Miami will end up in the SEC. Will go to the land of the misfit toys….the Big 12.
Miami is interesting because they’re an AAU Tier 1 research university. I think they might be a fit for the Big Ten for their academics.
I would agree. It was strange they weren’t on their list unless they expect them to end up in the SEC.
What a mess. None of those universities on that list with the exception of a couple will ever have a chance of winning a NC.
College sports is being destroyed.
Well obviously it’s not about football because half of those teams suck at football.
For the first time since Howard graced the sidelines, UL football has an opportunity “to climb another rung of the ladder”, as Jeff Brohm is viewed as a long term fixture as HC at Louisville. We have never been considered for either the SEC or BIG, but if we continue to build on what our first year HC has shown this far …….. folks will take notice.
Ironic that Schnellenberger left over UL pursuing conference affiliation, otherwise he would have stayed a lot longer as an independent.
Ironic that Schnellenberger left over UL pursuing conference affiliation, otherwise he would have stayed a lot longer as an independent.
Write off the B1G for UofL. Academic profile isn’t what they want. UaKay would fight tooth (their only tooth) and nail to keep us out of the $EC. That leaves a reconstituted ACC or B12.
About Eyeballs.
Let me clarify: It's not about winning and losing in football. It's about how many fans around the world turn on the tv or computer to watch "their" program play. So massive universities with very large numbers of living alumni become the desired attribute.
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Howard was right and Swain was wrong. Cards should have remained Independent until Big East or someone else "drafted" us. Perhaps many seasons later. Howard would have had a chance to build an Independent juggernaut. Swain cared Zero about sports. No comprehension of Sports Front Porch concept to Universities.
Like I have said before I have relatives all over New Jersey and parts of New York none of them watch Rutgers in anything. Just because a school is in a populated area doesn’t mean they draw viewers. I am not from Texas, Alabama, Ohio or other parts of the country where really good teams are but if 2 good teams are playing I am going to watch.
Crappy teams from a power conference has no draw. When traveling around the country while working I listen to sports talk shows and they all make fun of teams like Rutgers.
Crappy teams from a power conference has no draw. When traveling around the country while working I listen to sports talk shows and they all make fun of teams like Rutgers.
It's not that a school is or isn't from a populated area. It's that the school has lots of students and graduates who attended the school.
Schools like Northwestern and Vanderbilt are a bit of an aberration.
Those talking heads claiming academics, accreditation, affiliation, etc. as reasons for this M&A activity are putting lipstick on a pig(skin).
It's about $. If you can add $ then you have a chance no matter the reason.
Make no mistake, this is all mergers and acquisitions for "conferences".
Yeah like Nebraska because of their large population of 1.94 million puts a lot of eyeballs on the TV.
Doesn’t matter they haven’t been any good since joining the B1G. I think the only one that watches them now is the alumni. If they draw so many viewers how come they are never on TV.
You guys! We are staying in the ACC and then to the B12 when necessary.
To the Big Ten, it kind of matters. All of those University Presidents that will make the decisions are the ones that value those academics. Especially with those West Coast schools now, they would see it as a disadvantage adding schools that have lower academic standards. They want all of their schools competing on the same level.
If it was about academics, Stanford would be there.
It’s not all about academics, you’re going from one end to the other.
It’s a mix of finances and academics.
You can add brands, markets, and academics.
Nebraska. Rutgers, Maryland, USC. UCLA, Oregon, and Washington are all strong academic institutions.
Rutgers and Maryland were added at a time when conference expansion was about getting their network in new markets. The cable bundle is dying, so they needed more.
Notice the the teams the SEC and Big Ten added this time, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA. All added $50 million or so in additional revenue to each team. Oregon and Washington are coming in at reduced rates.
Basically now they’re going to look at who are the programs that add big TV ratings and have big names. Notre Dame, FSU, and Clemson are those brands. Miami has the potential to be big with the right coach.
So since there’s no big financial incentive outside of 1-3 teams, if the Big Ten had to add then things like academics would matter. So UNC and Virginia get boosted for that.
Then it’s really a crapshoot. It probably comes down to alumni base size and possible tv markets they could add into their fold. But the Big Ten really views themselves as a Country Club. Very elitist about their academics and history.
I know I am Looking forward for the big matchup between Rutgers vs Nebraska. I am sure the rest of the nation is to. If they add Virginia then we will have another big matchup for Rutgers and the rest of the nation will be watching enthusiastically all eyes on them. They might have good academics but they will have only half the conference that is any good.
I sit here and read this Post by you Guardman!! And tell YOU to move on like you have told ME to MOVE ON! Move on Guardman!! We will be the Little Engine That Could!! And Tom Jurich recognized that and thought BIG ! Hopefully our NEW AD Heird, NEW PRESIDENT! Will think Big Too! If they do, we will be fine!!
While it is true that UL’s “urban mission” distracts from its academic reputation; the school is doing just fine academically; it’s acceptance in the ACC demonstrates that point perfectly.
If the size of Alumni was the criteria for a University’s National TV attraction, or qualification for P5 Confernce attraction ……… try explaining how a small Jesuit school like Miami could defeat both of those myths?
If the size of Alumni was the criteria for a University’s National TV attraction, or qualification for P5 Confernce attraction ……… try explaining how a small Jesuit school like Miami could defeat both of those myths?
It seems alot of posters know what's going to happen. Who is the next big name to move and where are they going?
Louisville is quite OK. I'm a graduate. I give a lot of money to UofL. I buy a lot of UofL tickets. UofL is in my Will. I will wear Red until I die and then my wife will dress me in Red in the Casket.
As almost all of us understand, Louisville is the best example in College P5 sports of The Little Engine That Could.
Louisville's Revenue does quite well. And has for some time. And once MBB gets back on track, all should be good.
Louisville is the smallest Public university in the P5, measured by Living Alumni count (I'm not longer entirely sure of this, but I believe it to still be the case). There are Private P5's which are smaller.
Louisville is the 2nd largest Public University in a somewhat small-population, as well as, relatively poor state. And Louisville is less supported than the #1 size school is by fans in the state.
College Sports Media companies (Fox, ESPN, etc) desire making money. The more the better. They want to show teams that bring along viewers.
Roughly 80% of the media value of College P5 sports is in Football. MBB comes 2nd. All other sports don't much register. College Football in the Big Ten and SEC mostly play before 'huge' filled stadiums.
Football Attendance and Living Alumni count are reasonable proxies for Media Eyeball count.
If and When the two Conference Juggernauts expand, they will try to do it with teams that add a lot of value as measured by Media Eyeballs.
The Big Ten will 'never' invite Louisville, due to its marginal academics which began a downward move in 1952 from its merger with Louisville Municipal College and concomitant (and appropriate) change in focus.
The SEC will 'probably' not invite Louisville, because of UK.
Overall, there are three significant barriers for UofL's move to the SEC (or Big Ten):
1. Small PUBLIC School w Fewer Living Alumni (the effect of this can also be seen in the university's endowment)
2. (Relatively) Poor Academics as measured by virtually every credible college quality measurement service.
3. Scared Hatred by UK and its statewide proponents and followers.
Numbers 1 and 2 can be improved over a very very long timetable. Number 3 probably never.
Louisville is fine in the ACC. The ACC is probably going to be further reconstituted over the next few seasons. Louisville can probably flourish in the ACC once MBB gets righted (despite not being located in NC or Tobacco Road).
If for some reason the ACC falls apart and lots of lower level teams are brought in to replace the biggies who leave, Louisville should probably have an option to leave (and likely join the Big XII). That option may or may not occur prior to 2035/2036. That's OK. The ACC as it is or the Big XII as it may become is probably OK. And $30m of annual media $$ difference (per team) may either decline, or become less relevant.
I bleed Red. My son bleeds Red. Mrs. Guardman bleeds Red.
There are things that cannot be changed. The University cannot grow another 100,000 alumni overnight. Or suddenly rise 100 spots in the college rankings. We are what we are, and that's fine.
As almost all of us understand, Louisville is the best example in College P5 sports of The Little Engine That Could.
Louisville's Revenue does quite well. And has for some time. And once MBB gets back on track, all should be good.
Louisville is the smallest Public university in the P5, measured by Living Alumni count (I'm not longer entirely sure of this, but I believe it to still be the case). There are Private P5's which are smaller.
Louisville is the 2nd largest Public University in a somewhat small-population, as well as, relatively poor state. And Louisville is less supported than the #1 size school is by fans in the state.
College Sports Media companies (Fox, ESPN, etc) desire making money. The more the better. They want to show teams that bring along viewers.
Roughly 80% of the media value of College P5 sports is in Football. MBB comes 2nd. All other sports don't much register. College Football in the Big Ten and SEC mostly play before 'huge' filled stadiums.
Football Attendance and Living Alumni count are reasonable proxies for Media Eyeball count.
If and When the two Conference Juggernauts expand, they will try to do it with teams that add a lot of value as measured by Media Eyeballs.
The Big Ten will 'never' invite Louisville, due to its marginal academics which began a downward move in 1952 from its merger with Louisville Municipal College and concomitant (and appropriate) change in focus.
The SEC will 'probably' not invite Louisville, because of UK.
Overall, there are three significant barriers for UofL's move to the SEC (or Big Ten):
1. Small PUBLIC School w Fewer Living Alumni (the effect of this can also be seen in the university's endowment)
2. (Relatively) Poor Academics as measured by virtually every credible college quality measurement service.
3. Scared Hatred by UK and its statewide proponents and followers.
Numbers 1 and 2 can be improved over a very very long timetable. Number 3 probably never.
Louisville is fine in the ACC. The ACC is probably going to be further reconstituted over the next few seasons. Louisville can probably flourish in the ACC once MBB gets righted (despite not being located in NC or Tobacco Road).
If for some reason the ACC falls apart and lots of lower level teams are brought in to replace the biggies who leave, Louisville should probably have an option to leave (and likely join the Big XII). That option may or may not occur prior to 2035/2036. That's OK. The ACC as it is or the Big XII as it may become is probably OK. And $30m of annual media $$ difference (per team) may either decline, or become less relevant.
I bleed Red. My son bleeds Red. Mrs. Guardman bleeds Red.
There are things that cannot be changed. The University cannot grow another 100,000 alumni overnight. Or suddenly rise 100 spots in the college rankings. We are what we are, and that's fine.
Good post Guardman. It’s fact an reality. Truth is most of the universities joining the Big 10 or SEC are being relegated to no more chance of any championships and in many cases Bowl games. I would rather be a big fish in a small pond then a small fish in that mess.
Take SuCk for instance. They are at this point in at the best they’ll ever be. Once Texas and OK join along with whomever else is brought into the SEC, they just keep getting pushed further down the totem pole. That’s not want I want for us.
Miami had it going for a while, and even Tulane finished 12-0 one year (1998) with a high-level Heisman quality QB. However, neither example had sufficent sustainability to continue that level of success, in the case of Miami they could not keep the HCs responsible for that level of success. Conversely, the Brohm family is a hugely popular local family that would have every indication of being the first UL HC unwilling to leave for a higher profile job. It could take years, but that is what is required to become coveted by TV audiences and P5 Conferences like the BIG.
Jeff is still young and he will learn from his experiences, but he has the opportunity to take UL and his family name to the limit right here.
Jeff is still young and he will learn from his experiences, but he has the opportunity to take UL and his family name to the limit right here.
I wish I still shared @Guardman’s unconditional, positive sentiments toward U of L. Unfortunately I do not. And having witnessed and lived through the last 5-6 years, I don’t see that improving at my age, ever. It’s apparent to me and others that U of L has changed course, not for the better, and not to return to the trajectory it was on anytime soon.
The backdrop for college athletics will continue to change and get more competitive. I really don’t worry—nor have I ever—about U of L being on the outside looking in. More money and eyeballs will always be better than less, and every school brings its own value and contribution. If U of L drops off the map, I won’t suddenly become an Indiana or Tennessee fan. Better that U of L and schools like us to be included vs excluded.
[EDIT: I was reminded while reading @LeFors4Ever's post below this one that my optimism for U of L in the long term is predicated on Louisville remaining primarily a college sports community. A big reason IMO why athletics programs like Memphis have languished is trying to compete with pro sports. Hopefully, we have forever dodged that bullet.]
In the short run, U of L has experienced the greatest attrition in support from the very segment that would have proven the most lucrative, G-man notwithstanding. I have no children or logical descendants. Gray hairs, retirees, those of us who have been around a long time could have carved out—and maybe did—sizable parts of our estates for U of L’s benefit. U of L is determined to do things its own way without that support. The effect that could have is TBD.
I still enjoy watching just about anything compete that has a Cardinal logo on it. It’s programmed in. I support the students and coaches involved who work long hours, most of them for little tangible gain. I cherish lifetime commitments from people like Jeff Brohm, Dan McDonnell, and Jeff Walz. And I’m highly plugged into what they think and say genuinely. They’ve demonstrated that they deserve that commitment in return.
“Deserve” is the key… No one should get support and commitment automatically, because of who they are or the role in which they serve. Everything is earned, and at least for me, tough love is an option in just about every situation. When it’s not obvious you’re competing, the Cardinal logo is not your free pass…
The backdrop for college athletics will continue to change and get more competitive. I really don’t worry—nor have I ever—about U of L being on the outside looking in. More money and eyeballs will always be better than less, and every school brings its own value and contribution. If U of L drops off the map, I won’t suddenly become an Indiana or Tennessee fan. Better that U of L and schools like us to be included vs excluded.
[EDIT: I was reminded while reading @LeFors4Ever's post below this one that my optimism for U of L in the long term is predicated on Louisville remaining primarily a college sports community. A big reason IMO why athletics programs like Memphis have languished is trying to compete with pro sports. Hopefully, we have forever dodged that bullet.]
In the short run, U of L has experienced the greatest attrition in support from the very segment that would have proven the most lucrative, G-man notwithstanding. I have no children or logical descendants. Gray hairs, retirees, those of us who have been around a long time could have carved out—and maybe did—sizable parts of our estates for U of L’s benefit. U of L is determined to do things its own way without that support. The effect that could have is TBD.
I still enjoy watching just about anything compete that has a Cardinal logo on it. It’s programmed in. I support the students and coaches involved who work long hours, most of them for little tangible gain. I cherish lifetime commitments from people like Jeff Brohm, Dan McDonnell, and Jeff Walz. And I’m highly plugged into what they think and say genuinely. They’ve demonstrated that they deserve that commitment in return.
“Deserve” is the key… No one should get support and commitment automatically, because of who they are or the role in which they serve. Everything is earned, and at least for me, tough love is an option in just about every situation. When it’s not obvious you’re competing, the Cardinal logo is not your free pass…
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You’re pretty well spot on, but I did learn some things in my job in 2012 when the realignment was going on. I learned a lot from what moves the TV needles and such.
Perception is the most important. How you’re viewed is all it takes. In 2012, we weren’t in “The Club” of Power 5. We were in the purgatory of the Big East. At that point in time, it wasn’t that long ago that we were in a group with program like Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulane, ECU, and others like that. The Big East jump did elevate us above them and the success moved us away from being a mid major, but still not in “the club”
Perception came into play. West Virginia, Syracuse, Pitt, and Rutgers had all been in the Big East longer and had a better long term reputation from being around. We still were very new to the scene. Pitt, Cuse and Rutgers got their bids because of their University strength and history.
Then it came to us and WVU. They had been in the club longer. And they’ve been a better football program than ours historically and far more consistent. Yes we had success, but you got from Howard to the crash of Cooper. John L revived us to being ok but nothing really notable nationally but good enough for the new Big East, which Bobby took us to new heights, but followed by the Krag fall. WVU had been in the national stage more when the Big East was great and their rivalries with Miami, VT, and Pitt were in network exec memories. They went from Pat White to Gene Smith. As good as we were, they had a better “perception” and connections from being around longer.
Then it came to us and UConn. People underestimate the importance of the Charlie Strong hire. We had all the great things in place with all sports, facilities, and money, but football was king. Had we made another bad hire we would’ve stayed in the AAC. The club wanted UConn, but Charlie just made it where they couldn’t ignore us overall.
We also had Mitch McConnell fighting for us. People who use the political conspiracy of UK fans ignore we have the most powerful man in GOP and state on our side in him. The GOP Governor candidate and current AG played UofL football too.
We’ve now made the club. We now have that respect and have built relationships. People view us as “one of the guys” and it all fits. When you’re out of the club, program like Georgia Tech and Wake Forest have some sort of better perception, but once you get in then your on their level and the differences take hold.
Memphis and UConn are an example of being behind in the club. In all reality Memphis had a better stadium and potential 30 years ago considering their recruiting territory. They failed to invest. We won and moved up. We’ve built a strong fan base while they’re competing with Tulsa and Tulane. UConn came late to football and didn’t invest like they should and it kept them from the ACC in 2012. They fell behind.
Cincy and UCF really followed the model well and they’ve stayed relevant. USF was ahead of UCF, but didn’t invest in a stadium and now they’re out of the club while UCF got their ticket.
Now as far as what’s next? Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami are the national brands. They have name and drawing power. Yes Miami does, say what you will but they have had some of the best teams in college history and are in a football area. If they win then they draw big ratings. Imagine if a Coach Prime type coach was at Miami?
After that, it’s really TBD. They’ll weight money and markets. They’ll look at what they can add and if they fit the league.
For us? I mean UK couldn’t block us from the SEC if they wanted and that’s a myth. But from the SEC’s perspective, we aren’t a football power or big ratings draw. Our market is only Louisville and nowhere else. The SEC is already in Louisville TV market with UK, so how much more would it add for us to be there?
As for the Big Ten, well they do have Academic elitists. We aren’t a football power so that isn’t in our favor. If going down the list, they’d probably go for UNC and UVA.
But you get to the point of diminishing returns with more teams. The Big 12 is where we’ll end up and it’ll be a good fit. I personally have never liked the ACC since we’ve joined. Outside of Clemson/FSU, the games against NC State, Wake, BC, UVA, and Cuse just don’t get me excited. They aren’t really our rivals and we’ve played in a lot of empty and apathetic stadiums. Even programs like Pitt, GT, and Duke just feel empty.
WVU and Cincy feel like rivals. UCF we’ve built a rivalry and their fans care. Not to mention Ok State, Baylor, TCU, BYU, Colorado, Utah, and others in the Big 12 just have crowds and fan bases that bring it. It adds to the hype for the matchups. It feels like even our big wins, like against Wake last year, did they even have enough fans that cared enough for it to matter?
The attendance and the win at home over ND shows what UL football can do under favorable conditions. Unfortunately, UL football lacks the number of fans willing to show the same passion when playing all of our opponents.
Michigan, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Clemson, etc., etc., etc …… no objective UL fan expects to see that level of support at all of our home football games, nor would that be a realistic expectation.
We are who we are, but in all fairness, there may not be more than a very few Universities that have reached the level UL has attained from where we were before Schnellenberger arrived here.
Michigan, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Clemson, etc., etc., etc …… no objective UL fan expects to see that level of support at all of our home football games, nor would that be a realistic expectation.
We are who we are, but in all fairness, there may not be more than a very few Universities that have reached the level UL has attained from where we were before Schnellenberger arrived here.
As regards eyeballs, couldn’t they just look at TV ratings of UofL games? I’m not an alum of UofL, but I watch all their games. A sudden increase in academic standing is possible, simply by being more restrictive (“selective”) in admissions. That’s a big part of the ratings of most of these services (though I think the ratings formula largely miss the mark). Something all universities can do is cut administrators in order to pay faculty. There are things that can be done. But as regards $EC, UaKay will always blackball us.
Some insightful posts on here (special recognition to Guardman and LeFors). I think we end up in Big 12 and it happens in next 3-4 years. I think the big ACC players are gonna bail and sort out the legal ramifications later. To LeFors point, we are in the club - not in the VIP section for many of the reasons Guardman stated - but we are regarded as a football loving school so that gives us increased standing compared to many of our ACC peers. Also, we are used to moving conferences so I don’t see some sacred attachment to the ACC when the time comes to make a decision.
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