worried - football recruiting
- Thread starter duanegop
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I think you might be right Duane. Let's enjoy this year and next. After that we'll be lucky to compete at an OVC level. Good post Duane.
Your class looks like sht at the moment. One of the big head scratchers in the ACC. Along with the putrid UVA and VT classes.
Dude, two of my favorite cards of all time, Elvis Dumervil and Bilal Powell, were two star or less according to recruiting services. It is not something to worry about.
The 2004 class, strictly overseen by Bobby 1.0, was retroactively adjusted to the number 9 class in the US. It's rating at the start of their freshman year? #56.
Have some faith. That's all I got.
Have some faith. That's all I got.
I would be worried too if I were a Card fan . Why you would ever trust coach Petrino's talent evaluation over some Rival's guru sitting behind his computer is beyond me.
Well, I must say it does look like competing with Clemson and FSU for the next 4-5 years may be difficult when Louisville has zero 4 star, top 250 players after 17 commits (the class is almost complete) and being 30-40 spots behind them in every single class. I'm not talking about pulling off one win against then every four or five years, I mean compete. Winning half of our games with them, going toe to toe every single year. Sweeping them from time to time. Louisville is 0-4 against them and the talent coming in doesn't seem the same between our programs. Sure, I bet a few of Louisville's recruits will develop and end up being an NFL caliber player but to be an equal with FSU and CU Louisville needs a roster full of elite, special players not just a few here and there....lots and lots of them. Per the NFL draft over the last 4 years Charlie Strong had lots of special players. Louisville will definitely have to have that continue to compete EVERY single year with FSU and CU and be their equal, not just hope to knock one of them off every four years or so. When Louisville doesn't have one single 4-star, and is 30-40 spots below the top dogs then we are just hoping that 10-15 guys in every class are highly underrated or blossom "big-time" while here. Time will be the test, nothing is 100% now but up to this point UofL is 0-4 against them and way, way behind in talent rankings every single year.
Got news for ya... You're in for a lot of angst and frustration if recruiting like FSU and Clemson does today is your expectation. Those are storied football programs with years of a head start on us. Analogously, find me some of their basketball fans with those same expectations WRT U of L basketball--and I'll show you fanbase delusion in both sports.
Beating those teams a quarter or a third of the time is what you you would like to see in the future. And that's a HUGE step from .000 which is where we are today. Indeed, that would be "competing". The rest of the ACC over the last three years is 2-43 against FSU and Clemson, i.e, nowhere close to truly competing. Georgia Tech has those two wins BTW, so just being GT is a step forward.
Set realistic expectations to perhaps achieve them and avoid unhappiness...
Beating those teams a quarter or a third of the time is what you you would like to see in the future. And that's a HUGE step from .000 which is where we are today. Indeed, that would be "competing". The rest of the ACC over the last three years is 2-43 against FSU and Clemson, i.e, nowhere close to truly competing. Georgia Tech has those two wins BTW, so just being GT is a step forward.
Set realistic expectations to perhaps achieve them and avoid unhappiness...
Excellent take, Zipp. It also pays to remember that one or two of those victories could come in a blessed season where just beating those guys is not the best news of all.
We have these same arguments regarding basketball. It tires me out, frankly. How weird would it be if this class were the best Petrino ever dug up? When you consider that, for 4 years of Petrino 1.0, the only school who placed more players in the NFL than UofL was Southern Cal, it really makes one wonder why all the angst.
Let the frigging guy coach your team.
We have these same arguments regarding basketball. It tires me out, frankly. How weird would it be if this class were the best Petrino ever dug up? When you consider that, for 4 years of Petrino 1.0, the only school who placed more players in the NFL than UofL was Southern Cal, it really makes one wonder why all the angst.
Let the frigging guy coach your team.
DerVille, I appreciate what you are saying and wish it were that way, but IMO you're putting the cart before the horse.
We're not at the point where we can recruit toe-to-toe with FSU and Clemson. That's not how we're going to beat them right now. We have to do it with lesser rated talent and great player development. We have the perfect coach to win in this situation.
If we get to the point where we start beating FSU and Clemson on the field and become a true elite national program, then we'd be able to play the elite program game of bringing in a slew of 4-star and a few 5-star players every year and having the luxury of some not working out. We're not there now, though I hope to be there in the future.
For now, we have to beat them with less rated talent and less depth. I think we can win some, but at least for the foreseeable future they have the upper hand and we're underdogs. I don't mind the role, I'm glad to have the opportunity to play such quality programs every year.
We're not at the point where we can recruit toe-to-toe with FSU and Clemson. That's not how we're going to beat them right now. We have to do it with lesser rated talent and great player development. We have the perfect coach to win in this situation.
If we get to the point where we start beating FSU and Clemson on the field and become a true elite national program, then we'd be able to play the elite program game of bringing in a slew of 4-star and a few 5-star players every year and having the luxury of some not working out. We're not there now, though I hope to be there in the future.
For now, we have to beat them with less rated talent and less depth. I think we can win some, but at least for the foreseeable future they have the upper hand and we're underdogs. I don't mind the role, I'm glad to have the opportunity to play such quality programs every year.
1) Petrino recruits for needs, not necessarily star ratings. (Heavy emphasis on OL this year)
2) These recruits will have their fan-coveted stars when recruiting is completed.
3) Relax, everyone know that Petrino and staff know what they are doing. Any naysayers may be doing a little trolling.
2) These recruits will have their fan-coveted stars when recruiting is completed.
3) Relax, everyone know that Petrino and staff know what they are doing. Any naysayers may be doing a little trolling.
Just an observation, Jay, but thank you for setting me straight with your arrogant reply.
No stars is nothing, nada, haven't been rated as of yet. I see your a big pessimist. Don't you have any trust in the staff to evaluate talent? Maybe we have discovered the next Giocomini? There is a guy, now All Pro OL that only played basketball in prep school.
They will get a rating now they have accepted a P5 offer. Also it is August 1 and if we get better recruits we will drop the ones we have.
Ratings are fine, but for me in Petrino I trust.
So you have more faith in recruiting systems that had Matt Elam a 4 star than you have in CBP and his staff? Just making sure I understand you correctly.
I have far more faith in "offers" from other programs rather than "stars" from independent internet evaluators. And, yes, there are certainly problems with the "validity" of some offers. Still, I think it gives some indication of who your are running with. Below is my Collision Course post on this same subject..
I will let it (recruiting) play out. Typically UofL gets their "big" stars fairly late in the process. This often leads to the uncomfortable necessity to offer a gray shirt to some earlier "commitment". And, naturally, there is usually a little bit of controversy and little bit of bad press comes with that. Of course, we do not know the exact nature of their "offer".
Despite the problems associated with the actual validity of "offers" I tend to look at same at least as much as stars and independent evaluations. If we actually knew legitimate offer data I would not even look at stars. I have greater faith in what college coaches see in a prospective player than independent on line evaluators. Nonetheless, I still think offers are a meaningful indicator of the company you are keeping in recruiting.
To that end, the Cards 2017 class presently looks like this:
The 43 P5 offers come from the following institutions:
Are we getting what we need to be who we want to be?
Peace
I will let it (recruiting) play out. Typically UofL gets their "big" stars fairly late in the process. This often leads to the uncomfortable necessity to offer a gray shirt to some earlier "commitment". And, naturally, there is usually a little bit of controversy and little bit of bad press comes with that. Of course, we do not know the exact nature of their "offer".
Despite the problems associated with the actual validity of "offers" I tend to look at same at least as much as stars and independent evaluations. If we actually knew legitimate offer data I would not even look at stars. I have greater faith in what college coaches see in a prospective player than independent on line evaluators. Nonetheless, I still think offers are a meaningful indicator of the company you are keeping in recruiting.
To that end, the Cards 2017 class presently looks like this:
17 commits hold a total of 43 P5 offers (other than UofL)
5 of those commits hold no P5 offers
Only 2 of those commits hold 5 or more (i.e., 6) P5 offers
5 of those commits hold no P5 offers
Only 2 of those commits hold 5 or more (i.e., 6) P5 offers
The 43 P5 offers come from the following institutions:
5: IL
3: IA ST, UK, GA Tech
2: WF, MO, IU, Syracuse, MISS ST
1: MN, BC, KSU, RUT, UT, MD, PITT, PU, WVA, MIA, OR ST, NW, VA, VANDY, AU, TN, VPI, GA, LSU
3: IA ST, UK, GA Tech
2: WF, MO, IU, Syracuse, MISS ST
1: MN, BC, KSU, RUT, UT, MD, PITT, PU, WVA, MIA, OR ST, NW, VA, VANDY, AU, TN, VPI, GA, LSU
Are we getting what we need to be who we want to be?
Peace
Another thing to remember are these are early verbals. Petrino and the staff I don't believe have guaranteed any roster spots for many of these verbals. Once the signing period gets closer, some better rated recruits will be interested in the Cards. Most of the Cards recent 4 star gets came on late after other top schools filled their limit.
I bet several of these verbals will sign elsewhere after being told they will be asked to grayshirt. This may seem unfair but everyone does it. The coaching staff puts out a lot more offers than they know they have schollys for. These recruits have to know just because they give a early verbal doesn't mean they're on board for sure.
I'm sure the 2017 class will look much like we've seen with mostly 3 star guys, mixed in with a few 2 stars and a couple or three 4 stars.
I bet several of these verbals will sign elsewhere after being told they will be asked to grayshirt. This may seem unfair but everyone does it. The coaching staff puts out a lot more offers than they know they have schollys for. These recruits have to know just because they give a early verbal doesn't mean they're on board for sure.
I'm sure the 2017 class will look much like we've seen with mostly 3 star guys, mixed in with a few 2 stars and a couple or three 4 stars.
All week there are articles about four star guys with the Cards in with their final schools. It's true that UofL is not where it wants to be and getting these guys commitments early, but like others have said, start beating FSU and Clemson and that will come. Right now we're getting some darn good players who were leftovers from the traditional big boys not having room for them. Now we've had some top guys commit early like Lamar Jackson but that has not been the norm. Even Teddy Bridgewater was going to Miami then LSU before picking the Cards.
We did have lots of coaching turnover this past year. Perhaps that will lead to a down year in recruiting, or a late in the year run up. We shall see.
FSU has recruited its share of diamonds in the rough over the years. Rodney Hudson is now a Pro Bowl Center for the Kansas City Chiefs and when we recruited him out of High School he was a 2 Star player. It hasn't only been 4 and 5 Star players that make FSU what it is.
Star Ratings aren't the only thing. I do think in general Clemson and FSU are pulling in far more elite talent than the rest of the ACC right now. But that doesn't mean that the players other schools are getting are scrubs or can't compete. Boise State is a perfect example. And I'll go on record as saying Louisville is getting far higher rated players than Boise State does. And Player Development is as important as the guys you recruit.
Star Ratings aren't the only thing. I do think in general Clemson and FSU are pulling in far more elite talent than the rest of the ACC right now. But that doesn't mean that the players other schools are getting are scrubs or can't compete. Boise State is a perfect example. And I'll go on record as saying Louisville is getting far higher rated players than Boise State does. And Player Development is as important as the guys you recruit.
It's the way we've always had to do it, because we are located in Louisville, KY, which is not a football recruiting hotbed like Tallahassee, Florida. Per rivals, the entire state of Kentucky this year has one player rated 4-stars or better.
We aren't going to convince elite 4 and 5 star players from Georgia, Florida, and Alabama to commit to us six months before signing day over schools like FSU and Clemson until we have some success on the field against those schools. Hopefully, that starts this year.
Rivals tells us there are 750 players worth a hoot every year. Or rated.
Once again....there are almost 11,000 (ELEVEN THOUSAND) players coming out of FLA every year (720 FB playing schools x 15 Sr's per). If 10% are worth a damn that's 1,100 in Florida alone.
Throw GA, AL, MS, NC, SC in the mix, that's a lot of FB players who might need a year or two (maybe 3) more development to be "4 star".
There's a LOT of good FB players who are going to be GREAT FB players in time.
CBP knows this. He's never been anywhere that he can pick and choose from players dying to play for his school.
He's made his living picking players HE wants. And done pretty well at it.
Once again....there are almost 11,000 (ELEVEN THOUSAND) players coming out of FLA every year (720 FB playing schools x 15 Sr's per). If 10% are worth a damn that's 1,100 in Florida alone.
Throw GA, AL, MS, NC, SC in the mix, that's a lot of FB players who might need a year or two (maybe 3) more development to be "4 star".
There's a LOT of good FB players who are going to be GREAT FB players in time.
CBP knows this. He's never been anywhere that he can pick and choose from players dying to play for his school.
He's made his living picking players HE wants. And done pretty well at it.
Begbie; ask yourself which school placed more players last year in the NFL, FSU or UL? How does that work ...........gee I don't know, but it might indicate that Star rated recruits coming in does not necessarily translate into individual performance.
I actually think Matt Elam would be much better had he gone somewhere other than UK. Another coaching staff would have made him lose fat and gain muscle. They'd have him on a diet instead of feeding him ice cream like Stoops. Coaching goes a long way in making great recruits into great players.
I don't understand why everyone jumps all over anybody who questions Petrino's recruiting. He isn't infalliable and posters are just asking questions. A diamond in the rough is one thing but its scary when your entire class seems to be "underrated guys".
Ok. Valid points. Our recruiting sucks. Woe is us.
But riddle me this.
WHY and WHAT would make a 4 star guy, much less a 5 star, want to come 300-500 miles to a relative newcomer (UL) to the "big time" scene, when he can go to Hometown(state) U, who has been in the limelight for 40-70 years?
If you guys are going to get your panties in a wad over taking (or HAVING to take) under rated players, you better get a good supply of Gold Bond. We are not going to get them on a regular basis at this point in time. And likely never will on a regular basis.
Just because we're "ACC" isn't going to ring any bells for some kids. Has "SEC" helped uk? Or Vandy? Or for that matter, MSU?
Has B12 helped ISU, KU, or even OKST. Has "ACC" helped Wake, Cuse, Pitt, or even NCST? Has a "P5" in front of their name helped any of the above rise to the top of the list for 4-5 star recruits?
But, IMHO, as I've said before if you get a core of GOOD, solid players every year, bulk and coach them up to 4 star level, there is no reason we can't have very good, to great, teams on a steady basis.
Then we might be be able to entice a high rated player occasionally if we have a need for one.
We've done this for years, and have managed to compete with, and beat some "big time" programs.
Or, you worry about it while I try to enjoy seeing more Harry Douglass', Elvis Dumervilles', and Calvin Pryors' develop and grow into 5 star players.
But riddle me this.
WHY and WHAT would make a 4 star guy, much less a 5 star, want to come 300-500 miles to a relative newcomer (UL) to the "big time" scene, when he can go to Hometown(state) U, who has been in the limelight for 40-70 years?
If you guys are going to get your panties in a wad over taking (or HAVING to take) under rated players, you better get a good supply of Gold Bond. We are not going to get them on a regular basis at this point in time. And likely never will on a regular basis.
Just because we're "ACC" isn't going to ring any bells for some kids. Has "SEC" helped uk? Or Vandy? Or for that matter, MSU?
Has B12 helped ISU, KU, or even OKST. Has "ACC" helped Wake, Cuse, Pitt, or even NCST? Has a "P5" in front of their name helped any of the above rise to the top of the list for 4-5 star recruits?
But, IMHO, as I've said before if you get a core of GOOD, solid players every year, bulk and coach them up to 4 star level, there is no reason we can't have very good, to great, teams on a steady basis.
Then we might be be able to entice a high rated player occasionally if we have a need for one.
We've done this for years, and have managed to compete with, and beat some "big time" programs.
Or, you worry about it while I try to enjoy seeing more Harry Douglass', Elvis Dumervilles', and Calvin Pryors' develop and grow into 5 star players.
Elvis Dumervil's Rivals star rating was one of the all-time best examples of the problem with relying solely on the ratings to judge a recruiting class.
Elvis was originally a rivals rating darling, earning a 4-star rating because of his junior and senior year performance in ultra-competitive Miami high school football. Big East schools Miami and Syracuse wanted him badly, but both saw him more as a linebacker, and both expected him to redshirt. John L. Smith believed he could play defensive end and promised that he would not redshirt at UofL. Because of that, he chose Louisville.
Since he went to Louisville in CUSA instead of Miami or Syracuse, Rivals downgraded him to 3-stars in its final rankings of the year.
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The eyeball test of the coach (CBP) will always have more sway with me than some rivals scout whose job does not depend on his over or under rating of all the HS prospects in the nation, or even in one particular state......say for example FL or Georgia. I will trust in the proven results of CBP before allowing the star rating(s) to influence my thinking.
When and if the coach starts posting losing records......that will be the time to doubt his competency, but not until.
BTW, how is Coach Stoops faring in that department? Not a winning record yet going on year 4 of being a head coach.....but he sure can recruit the 4 star Ohio players....
When and if the coach starts posting losing records......that will be the time to doubt his competency, but not until.
BTW, how is Coach Stoops faring in that department? Not a winning record yet going on year 4 of being a head coach.....but he sure can recruit the 4 star Ohio players....
I don't get wrapped around the axle one bit over recruiting, especially as it applies to stars. I think people want what they perceive to be finished products; bluntly put, there aren't a hell of alot of finished products in Louisville and by extension the state of Kentucky. So we recruit South, just like we've done for the better part of 35 plus years now. We go into Florida and we find the kid who is athletic and if he's a defensive player, he's got a certain combativeness to him. This is too often forgotten, but the abundance of contacts throughout the Sunshine State for Louisville is DEEP for a school that is ten hours drive at the closest from most of Florida; ex-UofL players who are Floridians like Sam Madison who coaches in the equivalent to an AAU program. A multitude of ex-Schnelly players who are in coaching in Florida.
When you look at all of the kids who made big contributions last season to the cause--Cole Hikutini, Jaylen Smith, Gerald Christian, Kenny Thomas, Drew Bailey and Kiola Mahoni all have something in common...they were the lowest "ranked" kids in Louisville's 2015 signee class. Hikutini was the lowest rated kid in the entire signing class as a 5.3 kid, Jaylen Smith was the next lowest rated at 5.4. The highest rated was Lamar and Devonte Fields, equals to Devante Peete and just ahead of Dee Smith, Amonte Caban and Emonee Spence. Now I ask...how many of those names at the bottom would be rated a 5.3, 5.4 or 5.5 going into Fall camp starting this week if a realistic re-evaluation was performed of their talent?
When you look at all of the kids who made big contributions last season to the cause--Cole Hikutini, Jaylen Smith, Gerald Christian, Kenny Thomas, Drew Bailey and Kiola Mahoni all have something in common...they were the lowest "ranked" kids in Louisville's 2015 signee class. Hikutini was the lowest rated kid in the entire signing class as a 5.3 kid, Jaylen Smith was the next lowest rated at 5.4. The highest rated was Lamar and Devonte Fields, equals to Devante Peete and just ahead of Dee Smith, Amonte Caban and Emonee Spence. Now I ask...how many of those names at the bottom would be rated a 5.3, 5.4 or 5.5 going into Fall camp starting this week if a realistic re-evaluation was performed of their talent?
Beautifully said, Hack. Petrino's recruiting will never interrupt my Kool Aid snarfing. If Bobby says a flea can pull a stage coach, I'll hook him up.
Something else to remember. No one has ever seen what Bobby can do when he stays at a program for a truly extended amount of time. I think we all believe he is here for the future - certainly for some few more years. I think he believes that as well.
With his machine purring, I suspect he is recruiting talent, simply put. Football talent - attitudes, character, football IQ...speed and raw energy. He has his own method. I want to watch it unfold. I think he did himself a disservice, leaving too early. No one knows how incredibly good we could have been.
Something else to remember. No one has ever seen what Bobby can do when he stays at a program for a truly extended amount of time. I think we all believe he is here for the future - certainly for some few more years. I think he believes that as well.
With his machine purring, I suspect he is recruiting talent, simply put. Football talent - attitudes, character, football IQ...speed and raw energy. He has his own method. I want to watch it unfold. I think he did himself a disservice, leaving too early. No one knows how incredibly good we could have been.
I agree with Hack and Senore. No reason to be concerned about the star recruiting system when it comes to having players who know how to play and who can be coached.
Petrino knows talent when he sees it, and he doesn't have to see a star icon rating index next to anyone's name to figure it out.
Petrino knows talent when he sees it, and he doesn't have to see a star icon rating index next to anyone's name to figure it out.
The maturation between 17/18 year old HS senior to 21/22 year old College kids is huge! It has a lot more to do with what a school & staff can do to prepare these kids over the next 2-4 years that makes the difference in a pretender and a contender. Stars matter, but only to a certain degree. Notre Dame is an example of a school that has enjoyed top 5 to top 10 recruiting classes for many years ..............but it does not explain UL going up to South Bend and beating them with an inexperienced QB.
I have to disagree. High star players are what all the elite program's have in common. For example if UK hadn't averaged 5.792 stars across the board and only 5.613 like UL we might of been 1-11. So that .179 extra added 4 wins against the toughest schedule outside AFC central.
