U of L Budgeting for NO Decline in Attendance...

[the artist FKA zipp]

They're actually budgeting for an INCREASE in attendance related revenues for men's basketball in 2023-24. In the combined categories of ticket sales, suite rentals, and parking, the actual total this past season was $13.6 million. The budget is for that to be $14.1 million this coming season.

The budget for this past season was $15.1 million. Again, we can't hit our numbers...

The only way these revenue numbers will be achieved without declining attendance is for the game day revenue (GDR) per fan to increase significantly through higher ticket prices, etc. GDR per fan DECREASED this past season to $63.83 from $68.22 in 2021-22.

Appears that a lot of optimism is baked into the athletics budget for this coming year across the board...

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Should be noted in the above calculation that concessions are omitted when they should be included.

In U of L's reporting, they combine basketball (men's and women's) concessions with "advertising". That may be how the arena reports it, but I don't consider advertising revenue to be directly attributed to operations and attendance.

That combined budget for this past season was $1.50 million vs $1.71 million actual. The actual number could have been driven by a better effort to sign up advertisers going into the season. And reflecting last year's results, the budget for this category next season is $1.45 million, a 15% decline...

 

[kwhurs01]

Zipp

Have you figured out what the attendance would need to be this year if $/fan stayed at 23 levels? Like what are they forecasting attendance wise.

I appreciate the breakdowns and analysis.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Good question... To hit the budget, if $$ per fan doesn't increase next year--same as last year--the attendance increase would have to be the same as the combined revenue increase under tickets, suites, and parking. That's about 4% (from $13.6 to $14.1 million).

Understand that's TOTAL attendance, not average attendance. IOW an extra home game at the same average attendance as last year gets U of L around 5% on a 20-game schedule. Last year, there were 17 home games and 16 the year before.

I haven't seen a tentative schedule yet for 2023-24 if one has been released. By comparison, there were 18 regular season homes games in each of Mack's first two years, 19 in Padgett's year, and 17 in Pitino's last year.

Also, I don't include exhibition games in my analysis although they should arguably be included since per game arena revenues are probably about the same and they count toward the budget, I'm sure. There have been two exhibitions in every year I just mentioned except for Mack's 2nd year. So it's probably a consistent "error" if someone wants to call it that.

An 18th home game alone might explain the increase for 2023-24. However, coming out of last season, there were a lot of predictions about how U of L could justify the millions to buy out Payne because no one would be showing up next year. U of L is obviously not budgeting for that...

 

[glassmanJ]

attendance will double from bballs numbers last year and football will have the stadium over 85% sold on average for the year. i don't think they have any problems hitting their numbers and will most likely have a huge surplus of cash at the end of the year.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Love that sarcasm…

 

[beantowncard]

It’s all about winning.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Not quite, or attendance WOULD be falling off a cliff…