So….What Changed

[nccardfan]

I seldom agree with this guy, but he's right about Payne presently IMO. Talent ain't the problem. Payne is learning how to coach on the job, and he apparently started from zero.

The only questions are how fast and how much he learns. We're gonna find out the hard way--by letting him try--but I'm not optimistic. Hopefully, I'm wrong...

I could be overly optimistic or it might even be the after effects of the bourbon but I am seeing some measures of improvement, although baby steps. They could have folded their tent but they kept hustling. If he can keep them giving effort (which means less Withers) and playing hard defense, we could have a Satterfield repeat, not walking away, but finishing with some unexpected wins. I don't have any statistics but I think the key for more wins with this team is to play the guys who play defense first (did I say less Withers) and possibly less Ellis. I could be wrong we made a little run when Ellis went to the bench. If he does get some unexpected wins then we are faced with what we feared with Scottie, another year.

 

[TheRealVille]

It was no surprise that the Cards best play came without Withers on the court. The dude just doesn't seem to have learned anything. Ellis, on the other hand has to be on the floor, despite his inconsistency.

Everything about this season comes down to just not having enough guards both offensively and defensively. Ellis has obviously been told to avoid foul trouble so his defense has been lacking.

It's going to be hard to win with just one guard being relied on. Basili or Miller have to play more minutes if there's any possibility to win some of these games.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Curry seems to be headed the right direction. Maybe if they play through him they can be competitive in the losses and even steal a few wins.

I don't think it's ever going to happen for Withers. He hit his ceiling when he was playing with great guards a few years ago and playing out of position @ C but taking advantages of mismatches. His 3pt% is fine but every other requirement of a wing eludes him.

It's real hard to analyze something this bad.

 

[PushupMan]

ESPN app has a great little tool where you can look at future games on the schedule and see who should be favored. It gives a percentage chance for each team to win the game.

For UofL’s 18 regular season games that remain, the percentage chance of victory for UofL ranges from a low of 1.5% for the game @UK to a high of 31.1% for February’s rematch at the Yum against FSU.

If you add up UofL’s percentage chance to win each of those remaining 18 games and divide by 100, you get 2.0 wins.

This means that a 4-27 regular season is our baseline. Worse than that, and Coach Payne regressed from the current level. Better than that, and Coach Payne has demonstrated that his leadership has improved this team from this point forward.

IMO, he’s really going to have to pull off a miraculous improvement (something in the neighborhood of 8 wins total) to make a compelling case to keep him.

Lackford talked about a Bloody Sunday in football recruiting, but the real Bloody Sunday is going to come when Josh Heird has to face the number of season tickets cancelled if CKP is retained after this year. Without that dramatic improvement from the current level, Josh won’t be able to point to anything positive in the program to staunch the bleeding.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

ESPN app has a great little tool where you can look at future games on the schedule and see who should be favored. It gives a percentage chance for each team to win the game.

For UofL’s 18 regular season games that remain, the percentage chance of victory for UofL ranges from a low of 1.5% for the game @UK to a high of 31.1% for February’s rematch at the Yum against FSU.

If you add up UofL’s percentage chance to win each of those remaining 18 games and divide by 100, you get 2.0 wins.

This means that a 4-27 regular season is our baseline. Worse than that, and Coach Payne regressed from the current level. Better than that, and Coach Payne has demonstrated that his leadership has improved this team from this point forward.

IMO, he’s really going to have to pull off a miraculous improvement (something in the neighborhood of 8 wins total) to make a compelling case to keep him.

Lackford talked about a Bloody Sunday in football recruiting, but the real Bloody Sunday is going to come when Josh Heird has to face the number of season tickets cancelled if CKP is retained after this year. Without that dramatic improvement from the current level, Josh won’t be able to point to anything positive in the program to staunch the bleeding.

Just my opinion here, speculating...

This is more complicated than just wins/losses.

I believe KP will be the HC here next year if he chooses to be the HC here next year.

We shall see what happens!

 

[LouisvilleKid79]

ESPN app has a great little tool where you can look at future games on the schedule and see who should be favored. It gives a percentage chance for each team to win the game.

For UofL’s 18 regular season games that remain, the percentage chance of victory for UofL ranges from a low of 1.5% for the game @UK to a high of 31.1% for February’s rematch at the Yum against FSU.

If you add up UofL’s percentage chance to win each of those remaining 18 games and divide by 100, you get 2.0 wins.

This means that a 4-27 regular season is our baseline. Worse than that, and Coach Payne regressed from the current level. Better than that, and Coach Payne has demonstrated that his leadership has improved this team from this point forward.

IMO, he’s really going to have to pull off a miraculous improvement (something in the neighborhood of 8 wins total) to make a compelling case to keep him.

Lackford talked about a Bloody Sunday in football recruiting, but the real Bloody Sunday is going to come when Josh Heird has to face the number of season tickets cancelled if CKP is retained after this year. Without that dramatic improvement from the current level, Josh won’t be able to point to anything positive in the program to staunch the bleeding.

I’m glad to see someone else is looking at the schedule and numbers. I’ve been saying it’s in the 3-5 range more recently. A few weeks ago I was thinking o/u 2.5 wins. Anything above this range and I will be shocked. Right or wrong, I think he’s going to get a 2nd year.

 

[BPGhost]

Just my opinion here, speculating...

This is more complicated than just wins/losses.

I believe KP will be the HC here next year if he chooses to be the HC here next year.

We shall see what happens!

I think sadly, you’re right. After so many self inflicted wounds these past years, anything that can be spun negatively about UofL by the media will be. Were UofL to fire it’s first AA coach after one year - albeit one of historically disastrous results - they will get crucified.

And Heird knows it.

 

[LouisvilleKid79]

I did see some changes/improvement last night against NC State, but I’m not sure it will be enough to win more games (not more than 5 and that’s a stretch) even in a “down” ACC.

No improvement on turnovers (especially unforced) and some critical defensive lapses.

 

[Thecycle27]

The returning players were on a 13-19 team and 70% percent of the scoring left. Did you actually think they would win 13 games?

Has Payne done a good job nope but saying this team is talented in comical. Are they more talented than 2-10? Sure but that doesn’t mean they are talented enough to compete in ACC. It is a bad combination of players and a new coach.

I do agree this year is so bad it has sped up the evaluation process. End of the year may lead to a change but it would have to be mutual.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

I think sadly, you’re right. After so many self inflicted wounds these past years, anything that can be spun negatively about UofL by the media will be. Were UofL to fire it’s first AA coach after one year - albeit one of historically disastrous results - they will get crucified.

And Heird knows it.

There's layers, and that could be one of them.

Another thing Josh knows is UofL might not have the $ needed to bring on the type of HC everyone wants.

And then he also knows the coaching fraternity may be hesitant to sign up for a job that's firing coaches for job performance back to back years, shortly after the RP divorce. If you have a smoking gun other than W/L that goes with it you might be able to do it without this concern. But we don't have that right now.

If you are Muss or Oats and you are getting paid and in great standing why are you risking your career on a place that is a graveyard for a head coach that doesn't offer job security? You probably aren't taking on the gamble to coach a place that just canned a legacy after only giving him one year.

I could be wrong about all that. And if KP were to resign that changes the narrative.

We'll see what happens if we live long enough.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I'm the last guy to give U of L the benefit of doubt anymore, but I really question how much further season ticket sales are gonna fall if/when Payne is retained. Let's face it, most of the fence riders and people who have any sense have probably cancelled prior to now. I only know of a couple people who still have season tickets, and my sense is they will forever.

When you've lost almost half of your ticket-buying fanbase, how much further do you have to fall? It's a knife that cuts both ways. You like the loyalty, but the leftovers aren't sending a message. That was done by the ones who HAVE left...