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So….What Changed

Feb 3, 2014
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I hate long posts. But if you have the time, take a read and let me know just how crazy this sounds.

We all saw it with our own eyes. The team we know and love went from horrible to pretty decent in less than 6.2 seconds. I’d call it the biggest surprise in these parts since Rich Strike won the Derby.

So, how do we explain this? The steroid backlog was resolved and the shipment arrived? KP sold his soul to the devil? Aliens replaced our players with talented doppelgängers? Who really knows, but I’‘m gonna put on my tinfoil conspiracy theory hat and take a stab at it.

For weeks now I have questioned the role of our highly touted assistant coaches. Danny Manning is a smart guy who does have head coaching experience. He held Md. decently together last year so there is some of the old been there, done that In him. Nolan Smith played and coached at Duke. Another smart guy. How could they not help produce better results than a 0-9 start? My theory has been that their voices have been silenced or at least unheard by KP. So, anyway, my easily persuaded mind then was influenced by a thread in the 247 Sports fan page that made some pretty outrageous claims. Not really buying what the guy was selling but he reported that his “reliable sources “ told him that KP, his agent, Josh Heird and the New York Knicks (including WWW) were involved in negotiations that would provide KP with some financial payoff and a face-saving job with the Knicks that would provide him a good cover for an exit strategy. Again, not saying I believe it but I plugged this info into my other “Silent Assistant Coach” theory to see if they would mesh. They did. So here’s how it goes. While KP is in NY playing footsie with the Knicks, Manning and Smith are back home running practice. At last they are free to have input to the team, simplify things for the players and get them to stop thinking so much and play intuitively more. The players love it.

Then KP comes back, sees the change and (since he is planning to leave anyway) let’s Manning and Smith continue to lead the team. All of this produces the results we saw Wednesday night. So, you ask….is there any proof of this? Well, like most conspiracy theories, there is always a kernel of something. I went back and watched the WKU game and focused solely on the bench. During the first half, Manning was on his feet almost as much as KP was. He was directing players on defense, shouting out to players on court and doing some individual coaching during game stoppage. Nolan was also very active. In the second half, during a late timeout, Manning was in KP’s ear before KP talked to the team. At one point, there was a player substitution made by an assistant, not by KP. Also, Bob Valvano, who sits courtside, said there were incidents of Ellis and Lands chirping at KP and he back at them. He stated he had not seen this before. So, my point is that Manning and Nolan basically prepared the team for and largely coached them that game and the players responded to this. Go back and watch for yourself. Tell me I’m wrong. To further investigate this, I went back and watched the Miami game. Night and Day. Nolan was up from time to time but Manning barely moved at all. He basically looked pretty unhappy.

Buy it….don’t buy it. Matters not to me. But there has to be some explanation for the massive change we saw last game and, to me, this seems as good as any.

Now….anyone want to buy a tinfoil hat? Thanks for reading.
 
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I prefer Occam’s razor most of the time.

So let’s instead start with the fact that the team shot well above average both from the field and from the three point line. Since those shots that normally don’t go down did, the team played from well ahead and faced very little adversity from start to finish.

So the hypothesis here is that the night and day difference was nothing more or less than a team playing with a big lead, which allowed them to play loose, confident and relaxed.
 
I prefer Occam’s razor most of the time.

So let’s instead start with the fact that the team shot well above average both from the field and from the three point line. Since those shots that normally don’t go down did, the team played from well ahead and faced very little adversity from start to finish.

So the hypothesis here is that the night and day difference was nothing more or less than a team playing with a big lead, which allowed them to play loose, confident and relaxed.
I’ll stick with Schick razors but to each his own 😂! But, when they started getting hot they were down 8 and looking like their old selves. Also, how do you account for the change in behavior from Manning from the Miami game to the WKU game? Or, maybe it was all Kismet? Can’t say but we’ll have more data tomorrow. Keep an eye on the bench!! The truth is out there!
 
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I'm really interested to see if the increased effort level carries forward to the next game and beyond. I saw more hustle from almost every player last game than they've shown in the previous 9 games combined. Diving for loose balls, getting steals, etc.

Why was that? Was it simply because shots were going in that fueled them? The crowd? Did they finally flip on a mental switch?

Also it goes to show that this team would've never went winless for so long had they simply played with the effort and fire they showed against WKU. And that is one of the most frustrating aspects of this team so far.
 
I agree that the coaches appeared to be more "engaged" with KP and the players at different times throughout the game. I actually keep a close eye on the bench as well because I like to see the dynamics between coaches and players. I think it can be telling.

As already mentioned, I think the only major difference in the game against WKU is that the Cards shot well. The ball was going in the basket. Even when WKU tried to respond, the Cards continued to score. Which was great to see. I think Lands was shooting the 3 at 15% coming into the game, he goes 3-7. Cards make 13 of 25 3s and hit 19 of 20 FTs. Impressive. It was nice to see them move the ball well... getting the ball to open shooters. The thing I liked the most was seeing guys actually diving on the floor after loose balls and making some effort to play better defense. It's been said in this thread and I said it in another post, there appeared to be a different energy in the building all the way around. Not sure what to attribute that to.

Is this the turning point? I don't know. I really don't want to take anything away from the win because it was great to see for the team, KP and fans. There were still some concerning things that will be overlooked because they won the game. They still gave up 83 points, some really bad defenses lapses (2 really bad fouls by BHH), Ellis made some passes that were somewhat suspect (mid-air or deep penetration) but still found a wide-open target, inability or struggles to inbound the ball and I think overall some really bad defense played by WKU.

I just hope they can build on the momentum over the next few games with this somewhat friendly schedule. This team has to understand that they have to be focused, locked-in and gritty on the defense end of the floor. We will learn a little more against FAMU.
 
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This is an obvious explanation if true. If KP was indeed in NY working on an exit strategy, the teams performance proves KP is the issue.

What I do believe is if the team continued to get blown out through December, something would have to happen in the new year. The pressure is enormous and it would make sense KP would be looking into his options with the NBA.

If true, how KP would react to his players responding to his assistants and not himself, would be the question. How big is his ego?

But it still seems like something else is going on. Somethings missing with this group of players and coaches. It's easy to create a scenario where it's all on KP but not as much if the team starts to play like the WKU game. Is KP suddenly a good coach if the Cards win 4 out of 5?

The easiest explanation for me may just be that this new staff and shorthanded team had a tough power 5 conference schedule when they needed to have a extended cupcake schedule.

After the first 3 losses which easily the Cards could have won, the team faced,

Arkansas, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Maryland, Miami and FSU.

Louisville just wasn't ready or prepared for that six game stretch, especially after those three straight one point losses. Maybe at 3 and 0, they may had fared a tad better but probably not.

We can say that's on KP but the off-season was so volitale even a experienced coach would have been stressed to formulate a working identity early in the season.

Maybe there was a practice session and KP was away? Sounds real but at the same time, too real.
 
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The team seemed really happy in the locker room after the game, even dousing CKP with water and celebrating with him. But we don't know what happens behind the scenes the other 98% of the time.

The assistant coaches being more vocal and involved is a point of interest though.
 
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What changed? Its what typically changes - different opponent. Look I know it appeared at times, we weren't going to win a single game. I never believed that because there's too many factors that can affect the outcome of the game. At some point we were going to face a team that overlooked us or didn't take us seriously. It was a rivalry game, not on the same level as UK, but still there's a lot of local interest in this game. Home teams always have an advantage and you can catch teams on a bad night. Plus depending on the type of offense/defense the opposing team plays can work to your team's advantage or not. I think Western's defense allowed Ellis to drive more. We were more aggressive, went to the foul line more than we normally do and didn't let down in effort. This can happen to any team, its whether you can build or continue to play at that level. I think this is what Kenny was looking for all season, one game that will turn it around.

As usual, the game against UK will be the true measuring stick...
 
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Just to keep it short and sweet!
UofL shot over 50% from 3 & fg which won’t hold longterm.
Effort was much improved, but it’s much easier to have higher energy when the shots are fallin.
Hopefully they can maintain the energy and effort.
 
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Sadly, it is as simple as that …… hitting those threes made a huge difference. I will add that reducing the turnovers should not be overlooked, as that must continue to improve of we expect to win in the ACC.

I believe there is some talent on this roster, certainly better than the record will show.
 
It usually takes a very experienced or mature team to still play well in other facets of the game when the shots aren't falling. This obviously isn't the case with this Louisville team.

During the losing streak the hope some of us held out for was a great shooting game so to gain some confidence. It seemed like it was the opposite as these teams were shooting the lights out.

But against WKU, the shots went in and the guys played with more focus and confidence. There's enough talent on this team to be a competitive ACC team, it's the mental aspect that they are having problems with.

A great coach usually fixes that sooner than later but with KP being a first time head coach, he may have the same problem. Hopefully he and the players learned from their performance against WKU and will perform and compete like they should.
 
...my easily persuaded mind then was influenced by a thread in the 247 Sports fan page that made some pretty outrageous claims. Not really buying what the guy was selling but he reported that his “reliable sources “ told him that KP, his agent, Josh Heird and the New York Knicks (including WWW) were involved in negotiations that would provide KP with some financial payoff and a face-saving job with the Knicks that would provide him a good cover for an exit strategy...
Comedy Channel material.

More credible, however, if Josh Heird is cast as the mastermind... 😀
 
Looks like it was just next level hot shooting. They didn't take a step forward yesterday. Good to see Curry coming alive but that's about it for yesterday.
 
Manning was on his feet almost as much as KP was. He was directing players on defense, shouting out to players on court and doing some individual coaching during game stoppage. Nolan was also very active. In the second half, during a late timeout,
Milt was being pretty vocal during timeouts too..

I'm not sure how much I believe in your theories but I will say, I hope there's truth to the KP to the Knicks exit strategy.. He CAN NOT COACH !!

Worst case scenario would be somehow he gets to 7 or 8 wins and gets another year so he can get 8 or 9 wins and so on and Louisville basketball is suddenly UNLV or Depaul.... It can happen.
 
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Milt was being pretty vocal during timeouts too..

I'm not sure how much I believe in your theories but I will say, I hope there's truth to the KP to the Knicks exit strategy.. He CAN NOT COACH !!

Worst case scenario would be somehow he gets to 7 or 8 wins and gets another year so he can get 8 or 9 wins and so on and Louisville basketball is suddenly UNLV or Depaul.... It can happen.

Actually be worse than those two. They can make post seasons tournaments (NIT OR CBIT)

7 or 8 wins is not efficient for UofL and Payne would have to go.
 
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I think 7 or 8 wins is going to be stretch for this team. It’s possible they get 1 or 2 more unexpected wins.

Lipscomb will be tough tonight. Need to get this one.
 
Milt was being pretty vocal during timeouts too..

I'm not sure how much I believe in your theories but I will say, I hope there's truth to the KP to the Knicks exit strategy.. He CAN NOT COACH !!

Worst case scenario would be somehow he gets to 7 or 8 wins and gets another year so he can get 8 or 9 wins and so on and Louisville basketball is suddenly UNLV or Depaul.... It can happen.
Agree! 7-8 wins puts us in Satterfield land. Not good but not bad enough to get rid of. I do think 3-4 wins maybe be more realistic, maybe even on the high side.
 
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And to answer the original question and title of this thread...

Not much!!!

Sydney has improved but Withers needs to sit. He doesn't want to play the low post and has produced the same results under 3 coaches, Mack, Pegues and now CKP..
 
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And to answer the original question and title of this thread...

Not much!!!

Sydney has improved but Withers needs to sit. He doesn't want to play the low post and has produced the same results under 3 coaches, Mack, Pegues and now CKP..
Yep. Turns out it was a complete anomaly, an outlier that most likely won’t happen again this year.
 
Actually be worse than those two. They can make post seasons tournaments (NIT OR CBIT)

7 or 8 wins is not efficient for UofL and Payne would have to go.
Oh I'm not even saying we will get 7 or 8 wins, was just pointing out that 7 or 8 wins would be no man's land and probably buy KP another year that would result in another terrible season.

I agree that 7 or 8 wins is unacceptable for UofL but does Josh have the stones to pull the trigger on making a change ? The people that pulled strings to get KP the job are going to be wanting him to get another year or two..

It doesn't help that people like Luke Hancock are on the radio saying he has to get another year.. Not to mention Eaves and Beard, Houston, and Bridgeman..
 
Oh I'm not even saying we will get 7 or 8 wins, was just pointing out that 7 or 8 wins would be no man's land and probably buy KP another year that would result in another terrible season.

I agree that 7 or 8 wins is unacceptable for UofL but does Josh have the stones to pull the trigger on making a change ? The people that pulled strings to get KP the job are going to be wanting him to get another year or two..

It doesn't help that people like Luke Hancock are on the radio saying he has to get another year.. Not to mention Eaves and Beard, Houston, and Bridgeman..
Another year for what? The tear down looks complete to me!!! What’s left?
 
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Oh I'm not even saying we will get 7 or 8 wins, was just pointing out that 7 or 8 wins would be no man's land and probably buy KP another year that would result in another terrible season.

I agree that 7 or 8 wins is unacceptable for UofL but does Josh have the stones to pull the trigger on making a change ? The people that pulled strings to get KP the job are going to be wanting him to get another year or two..

It doesn't help that people like Luke Hancock are on the radio saying he has to get another year.. Not to mention Eaves and Beard, Houston, and Bridgeman..
Theyre doing that to support Payne. They know the truth

Josh will counter with 4,000 attendence at the KFC center and other failing financials.

Theyll come to an agreement for Payne to walk away. Health factors or a return to the Knicks. Something. He can keep the money. Just remove him from anywhere near coaching at UofL.
 
Actually be worse than those two. They can make post seasons tournaments (NIT OR CBIT)

7 or 8 wins is not efficient for UofL and Payne would have to go.
Oh I'm not even saying we will get 7 or 8 wins, was just pointing out that 7 or 8 wins would be no man's land and probably buy KP another year that would result in another terrible season.

I agree that 7 or 8 wins is unacceptable for UofL but does Josh have the stones to pull the trigger on making a change ? The people that pulled strings to get KP the job are going to be wanting him to get another year or two..

It doesn't help that people like Luke Hancock are on the radio saying he has to get another year.. Not to mention Eaves and Beard, Houston, and Bridgeman
Theyre doing that to support Payne. They know the truth

Josh will counter with 4,000 attendence at the KFC center and other failing financials.

Theyll come to an agreement for Payne to walk away. Health factors or a return to the Knicks. Something. He can keep the money. Just remove him from anywhere near coaching at UofL.
Man I hope you're right..
 
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U of L averages about $60 in revenue per fan in attendance. That's a little over a million annually for a thousand fans per game. Applying a 20-game home schedule, the Y-O-Y decline in basketball game day revenues has been...

2018 vs 2017: -$3.7 million
2019 vs 2018: -$1.4 million
2020 vs 2019: +$70,000
2022 vs 2020: -$4.1 million
2023 vs 2022: -$1.0 million

2021 was the Covid year, and 2022 could have been adversely affected from the reopening. The sum of those annual declines is $10 million per year.

The problem IMO is we're not EVER getting close to the 2017 revenue number which corresponded to almost 21 thousand fans in attendance per game. We might someday get back to 17+/- thousand per game if we field a title contender, but I wouldn't be optimistic about that.

The series of numbers above includes an optimistic year like when Mack was hired. That 2019 season was down significantly from Padgett''s year (2018) and five million less than Pitino's final year (2017). Attendance has been down again this year with another new coach.

And unfortunately, the drop in fans this year might not be enough. We're only projected to be down another million in revenue from last year. Payne's buyout is eight million.

You can hope for the Satterfield miracle, that Payne voluntarily goes somewhere else. But Sattefield's making about the same money at UC, and Payne has nowhere comparable to go. Satterfield also had four years in the U of L job and no backing. Like it or not, Payne is still supported by the former players and do-gooders working at a public university.

Wouldn't it be nice if we still had the $14 million that the University so casually paid Petrino? Money gives you options...
 
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We really are going to do this all year long? Let it play out. I don’t anticipate in major change in the teams performance so 3-5 wins is likely. Even if they found a way to 10 wins it doesn’t mean anything. At that point serious discussion will happen.

It is really simple in my mind. He has to do 2 things next year.

1)He has to figure out a way to get players in here for 2023 that makes them a tournament team or borderline tournament team.
2)He starts landing elite kids in the 2024 class. Kids are committing early in cycles so we will know next Fall.

Neither of those things happen both parties should agree to part ways.
 
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I keep seeing 8 to 10 wins… It will take some type of drastic turnaround (highly unlikely) or more WKU type performances to win anywhere near 8 to 10 games. This team does not understand who they are or how hard they need to be playing consistently (especially on defense) to win games.

Anything North of 3 wins, 5 at the most, and I will be shocked.
 
I keep seeing 8 to 10 wins… It will take some type of drastic turnaround (highly unlikely) or more WKU type performances to win anywhere near 8 to 10 games. This team does not understand who they are or how hard they need to be playing consistently (especially on defense) to win games.

Anything North of 3 wins, 5 at the most, and I will be shocked.
Totally agree. And, if they keep KP with 5 wins the program will be dead for many more years.
 
We really are going to do this all year long? Let it play out. I don’t anticipate in major change in the teams performance so 3-5 wins is likely. Even if they found a way to 10 wins it doesn’t mean anything. At that point serious discussion will happen.

It is really simple in my mind. He has to do 2 things next year.

1)He has to figure out a way to get players in here for 2023 that makes them a tournament team or borderline tournament team.
2)He starts landing elite kids in the 2024 class. Kids are committing early in cycles so we will know next Fall.

Neither of those things happen both parties should agree to part ways.

He has three 4 stars and a 5 star right now. Thats enough to have a 7-5/6-6 record.

Landing a number one class would make no difference.
Payne cannot coach.

I reiterate, if Payne was coach of the 21' Warriors, they dont even make the playoffs
 
Totally agree. And, if they keep KP with 5 wins the program will be dead for many more years.
Yeah, that’s just it. This year has gone so wrong that he’s put that much more pressure on year 2. He has to knock it out of the park on all levels, recruiting, transfer portal, coaching, etc…

The other side of it is this “blaming the players” argument. “It’s the players fault…” Now look some of these guys I question for sure but he will not have that to fall back on next year and again puts more pressure to perform in year 2.

I’ve tried to avoid inserting Cal and UK into any of these discussions but the truth is the system that Cal and KP run require high level talent, high BB IQ players… they are just not great X’s and O’s Coaches. That is not shot at Cal. Everyone knows that or should.

As others have said, I think the only way he’s out after this year though is if he and the university agree to some type of mutual agreement. I was really hoping that it would work out and that KP would have some success. It just doesn’t look good right now or for the future.
 
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He has three 4 stars and a 5 star right now. Thats enough to have a 7-5/6-6 record.

Landing a number one class would make no difference.
Payne cannot coach.

I reiterate, if Payne was coach of the 21' Warriors, they dont even make the playoffs
I seldom agree with this guy, but he's right about Payne presently IMO. Talent ain't the problem. Payne is learning how to coach on the job, and he apparently started from zero.

The only questions are how fast and how much he learns. We're gonna find out the hard way--by letting him try--but I'm not optimistic. Hopefully, I'm wrong...
 
The difference between really poor to mediocre and good to great coaches. Goes for any leader. Motivating/Maximizing their talent or “coaching them up” and/or being able to adjust their system to fit said talent. KP currently showing he cannot do any of this.
 
I seldom agree with this guy

Blush Stop It GIF by MOODMAN
 
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