Season Observation

[longtimefanSS71]

1. We don’t have a center who can block shots. Curry is not tall enough, too slow and can’t jump. For Wheeler, I don’t have the words to describe his play. Huntley is really a PF. Traynor in a pinch, but he doesn’t have the beef.
2. No other guard to relieve El. Payne removes him near the upcoming timeouts to try to give him a blow.
3. Traynor and Withers can hit a standing three, but not on the move. I would tell to go do what Grif did before his senior year. Go in the gym, set up the chairs and dribble, dribble, dribble.
4. Blocking out needs a lot of work.
5. Team speed. The game that stuck to me was against FSU. Every player they had was faster and quicker than our guys except El.
6. And the big one that stands out is points off turnovers.
7. #6 is because we make poor shooting decisions. Most of the the time we catch the pass at the 3 line and hesitate to shoot and decide to drive the lane against two guys taller.
8. Passing IQ.

OK, I’ve vented.

 

[KerryRhodes]

# 3 this is what off seasons assignments are for. This team was doomed before the season started.

 

[shadow force]

Pretty much agree with OPs observations.

Having no guards to both relieve and play alongside Ellis is a huge weakness. Having no PG is a killer. Every player except Ellis has average to way below average handles which stops them from being able to get their own shot and makes them way too easy to guard.

Fundamentals all across the board are lacking in the worst way imaginable. Matador defense from way too many guys, no blocking out, no rim protector, poor passing and inbounding, and no gang rebounding.

 

[achilles992000]

i would replace Curry and Wheeler. Wheeler is shooting 33% from field goal and also the free throw line. they are still struggling with the defensive scheme.

 

[Cardiac Red]

1. We don’t have a center who can block shots. Curry is not tall enough, too slow and can’t jump. For Wheeler, I don’t have the words to describe his play. Huntley is really a PF. Traynor in a pinch, but he doesn’t have the beef.
2. No other guard to relieve El. Payne removes him near the upcoming timeouts to try to give him a blow.
3. Traynor and Withers can hit a standing three, but not on the move. I would tell to go do what Grif did before his senior year. Go in the gym, set up the chairs and dribble, dribble, dribble.
4. Blocking out needs a lot of work.
5. Team speed. The game that stuck to me was against FSU. Every player they had was faster and quicker than our guys except El.
6. And the big one that stands out is points off turnovers.
7. #6 is because we make poor shooting decisions. Most of the the time we catch the pass at the 3 line and hesitate to shoot and decide to drive the lane against two guys taller.
8. Passing IQ.

OK, I’ve vented.

#9. Piss poor coaching on every level..

 

[Card2016]

When you have a season this bad it’s an all systems failure. Coaching, Players, roster Management, everything that could go wrong did

 

[Thecycle27]

I think offensively they have gotten better and that is where you can tell they are engaged.

The defensive end is where the roster construction is evident. It is also clear they have an offensive mindset and no interest in stopping people. There is not one player that plays good defense. They are too slow to be good one on one defenders. Which constantly creates rotations. They don’t talk on defense. That eventually leads to a good look or easy basket. When they play really hard they can hide their flaws for longer stretches. As soon as they stop effort then they get destroyed.

Coaching on the surface screams they have done an awful job but when you look at the core guys they weren’t good defenders last year either. The reason Ellis, Curry, Wheeler and JJ didn’t start was they were terrible on defense. Withers bounced around but was benched several times because if he doesn’t produce offensively then he kills you on defense.

They are so bad it is a combination of both coaching and players. I think he felt with their size and athletes they would be good defensively. He clearly misevaluated their desire to play defense. If roster turns and you still see awful defense in year 2 then we will know without a doubt it is coaching.

 

[Knucklehank1]

I’d add that they lack mental toughness on defense. If they shoot a bad shot or commit a turnover on offense, it results in a made basket for the other team an unusually large percentage of the time.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Until/unless this aspect of Payne’s coaching improves, it’s imperative IMO that he brings in guys who are largely self motivated. And I don’t know how you gauge that in advance.

Could this team use someone selfless and tireless, the male equivalent of Mykasa Robinson?

On the flip side, it’s difficult for me to see much progress in players like Wheeler and Curry.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Syd struggled, Withers and BHH were inconsistent, Ellis was asked to do too much, and the staff wasn't prepared.

Something happened for JJ and he is trending. Ellis was good. James got healthy.

The question is what's next yr look like? Who stays, who goes, who joins? A lot of people think Ellis will leave, as will Withers and Curry. The only guy we can be sure will return is probably JJ. So let's see what happens with all that it's all speculation. They really need to win a few in the portal, if not next year could be more of the same. They need JJ to take another step forward. Same goes for James and Lands if they return.

Whatever method was applied for the emergence of JJ needs to get going with some others and new guys this summer. They just cannot afford to lose exhibitions and then lose to soft teams again. They gotta hit the ground running.

 

[Thecycle27]

Until/unless this aspect of Payne’s coaching improves, it’s imperative IMO that he brings in guys who are largely self motivated. And I don’t know how you gauge that in advance.

Could this team use someone selfless and tireless, the male equivalent of Mykasa Robinson?

On the flip side, it’s difficult for me to see much progress in players like Wheeler and Curry.

The magic formula is players that are super competitive/self motivated tied with a coach that is the same. When that happens teams always have a chance to over achieve or win it all. The 2012-2013 team was loaded with those kind of guys.

KP understands exactly what he wants. The Bates recruitment is a great example of KP being disciplined. Bates size and skill are exactly what KP is looking for however it was all about Bates not the team. He passed. I know the NIL stuff made people mad but he is right it can’t be about money.

We will see what he does next year. I agree with others he has to hit the ground running next year.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

The magic formula is players that are super competitive/self motivated tied with a coach that is the same…

I’m sure the fire-him-now crowd will disagree, but I don’t know that Payne isn’t motivated and competitive. He has a more relaxed exterior, but I need to see more to prove or disprove that.

It does appear that he has an issue consistently motivating his players. Until that gets better, my only thought is to recruit guys who don’t need it. In all likelihood, that also flies in the face of getting high 4 and 5 star kids as the recruitniks want.

But was JJ highly recruited?…

 

[Thecycle27]

I think KP has given the naysayers all the ammunition they need but being a competitor-motivated aren’t at issue with him.

Way too much emphasis is put on a coach for motivating players. Bring in the right players and hold them accountable. It is a valid compliant or criticism KP didn’t hold players accountable. I personally think he had no choice but totally get others position.

JT is a good question. I will answer by asking another one who has a higher ceiling JJ or BHH? In today’s game it is JT and it isn’t even close. No one is saying that at the beginning of the year. JT’s with more strength is a matchup nightmare. I think BHH can become a really good college player with the right attitude. JT could be a pro if he stays grounded and continues to embrace coaching.

Next year they need 1 or 2 alphas that embrace everything KP is coaching. I would love Ellis to be that guy. He has the personality and competitiveness along with the game to demand respect.

 

[EKYCard643]

I've said all season that I'm not defending Payne - it all leads back to Payne's failures in one area or another. BUT...This season was doomed before it tipped off because of how poor of a job he did flipping and constructing the roster. Very few coaches could have done much with this roster let alone a first time head coach.

This roster is terrible from a construction perspective. Its as if someone grabbed 5 pieces out of a puzzle box and are trying to jam them together.

 

[nccardfan]

Syd struggled, Withers and BHH were inconsistent, Ellis was asked to do too much, and the staff wasn't prepared.

Something happened for JJ and he is trending. Ellis was good. James got healthy.

The question is what's next yr look like? Who stays, who goes, who joins? A lot of people think Ellis will leave, as will Withers and Curry. The only guy we can be sure will return is probably JJ. So let's see what happens with all that it's all speculation. They really need to win a few in the portal, if not next year could be more of the same. They need JJ to take another step forward. Same goes for James and Lands if they return.

Whatever method was applied for the emergence of JJ needs to get going with some others and new guys this summer. They just cannot afford to lose exhibitions and then lose to soft teams again. They gotta hit the ground running.

I'm not sure that Ellis was asked to do too much. Some how I think he convinced Payne that he could be a true PG and would distribute the ball... In this case you can't the stripes off a zebra and call him a horse. The staff's fault for believing him and not having another option. Similar to Withers telling Mack hes not a low post player instead of doing what was best for the team not for Jaelyn... Not sure what the hell Curry did in the offseason, maybe play video games and eat pizza on the sofa.

 

[EKYCard643]

I'm not sure that Ellis was asked to do too much. Some how I think he convinced Payne that he could be a true PG and would distribute the ball... In this case you can't the stripes off a zebra and call him a horse. The staff's fault for believing him and not having another option. Similar to Withers telling Mack hes not a low post player instead of doing what was best for the team not for Jaelyn... Not sure what the hell Curry did in the offseason, maybe play video games and eat pizza on the sofa.

I think Ellis is best suited to play off the ball BUT....I think he could have been a decent PG. on a team with more weapons. I mean he's averaging 4.6 assists on a team with almost no weapons. Yes he turns it over a ton but he plays 40 mins a game, he's far and away the best player on the team and has to handle the ball almost the entire time he's in the game because this roster has zero quality ball handlers outside of him. Law of averages says his turnover numbers are gonna be high. He's gotten his assist/t.o ratio above 1 now though so he's gotten better throughout the year.

If we could have gotten Tyrese Hunter or Courtney Ramey to play alongside Ellis and moved James to the 3 this entire season would have been massively different just from that one move.

 

[KerryRhodes]

I've said all season that I'm not defending Payne - it all leads back to Payne's failures in one area or another. BUT...This season was doomed before it tipped off because of how poor of a job he did flipping and constructing the roster. Very few coaches could have done much with this roster let alone a first time head coach.

This roster is terrible from a construction perspective. Its as if someone grabbed 5 pieces out of a puzzle box and are trying to jam them together.

So why should failure be rewarded?
His current coaching resume indicates he cant recruit, coach , motivate or teach.
He was hired before the transfer portal opened. 1500 players and he only obtained one.
Malfeasance.
He should be sent packing, not given 2 years just to make the NIT.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

So why should failure be rewarded?
His current coaching resume indicates he cant recruit, coach , motivate or teach.
He was hired before the transfer portal opened. 1500 players and he only obtained one.
Malfeasance.
He should be sent packing, not given 2 years just to make the NIT.

Unfortunately this isn't Monopoly money.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

If we could have gotten Tyrese Hunter or Courtney Ramey to play alongside Ellis and moved James to the 3 this entire season would have been massively different just from that one move.

Duct tape and the trunk of a car and we had those guys. Come on Kenny!

 

[EKYCard643]

So why should failure be rewarded?
His current coaching resume indicates he cant recruit, coach , motivate or teach.
He was hired before the transfer portal opened. 1500 players and he only obtained one.
Malfeasance.
He should be sent packing, not given 2 years just to make the NIT.

No, I'm not defending him or lobbying for him to get another season. I'm simply saying that by failing in the initial 4-6 weeks of his tenure (taking too long to hire staff/not prioritizing fixing the roster) he doomed the next 10 months of his tenure. Had he hired staff quicker and hired a better staff then the roster may look better.

I would compare it to a chef who took too long to shop for ingredients and by the time he bought them the vegetables were wilting and the meat was about to turn. Not even Gordan Ramsey could produce a good meal with that.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

No, I'm not defending him or lobbying for him to get another season. I'm simply saying that by failing in the initial 4-6 weeks of his tenure (taking too long to hire staff/not prioritizing fixing the roster) he doomed the next 10 months of his tenure. Had he hired staff quicker and hired a better staff then the roster may look better.

I would compare it to a chef who took too long to shop for ingredients and by the time he bought them the vegetables were wilting and the meat was about to turn. Not even Gordan Ramsey could produce a good meal with that.

I'm not sure the timeline backs you up. A lot of guys entered the portal in mid to late April like Hunter and Malachi Smith. Many signed in June. Some did enter the portal late March and sign late April like McNeil. Nolan got hired on 4/2 or 4/4 something like that. Manning mid April. This theory doesn't really add up. May have been a little behind on the first batch but the first batch weren't really the biggies anyway. BHH entered on 4/10 before Manning even got here, they still figured out a way to get him.

Payne went after guys that elected to go to T10 programs with continuity as opposed to risking NCAAT eligibility for a team that had a potential ban and a new coach off a 19 loss season. And maybe those programs offered a better NIL. A lot of alleged insiders thought some of these guys were coming here, so there was clearly enough time for the staff to contact and make insiders think this. They just ended up getting it wrong.

A lot of people will never agree on what went wrong in the portal I understand.

Let's just say despite 25+ losses there are no excuses this year.

 

[EKYCard643]

I'm not sure the timeline backs you up. A lot of guys entered the portal in mid to late April like Hunter and Malachi Smith. Many signed in June. Nolan got hired on 4/2 or 4/4 something like that. Manning mid April. This theory doesn't really add up.

Payne went after guys that elected to go to T10 programs with continuity as opposed to risking NCAAT eligibility for a team that had a potential ban and a new coach off a 19 loss season. And maybe those programs offered a better NIL. A lot of alleged insiders thought some of these guys were coming here, so there was clearly enough time for the staff to contact and make insiders think this. They just ended up getting it wrong.

A lot of people will never agree on what went wrong in the portal I understand.

Let's just say despite 25+ losses there are no excuses this year.

I think Payne portal problem was multilayered.

UofL is a tainted brand with punishments hanging over its head.

Payne took to long to hire coaches because he waited until Nolan and Duke lost before hiring ANYONE. Next (and this is just my opinion) he got told "NO" by a lot of coaches. It took a while to hire that 2nd assistant because - he got told "No" by his first few choices. I think this is why he wasn't able to get his staff in place quickly and I think the fact he had trouble finding coaches is perfectly illustrated by the hiring of Jamison to an on-court role - a man who had been in an off-court office role for well over a decade.

His inability to quickly hire a staff allowed for other programs to get in the ear of the best prospects before UofL was even out of the gate. Then you've got a first time head coach, Nolan Smith - a name but not much of a guy known for coaching or doing really anything for that matter and you've got multiple time failed coach Danny Manning and a guy who used to schedule the travel for Oregon trying to convince you to come play for a program that probably won't be allowed to play in the tournament. UofL never had a chance in the portal. I think that point is further proven by the fact that outside of BHH - nobody visited UofL. Outside of tainted product Emoni Bates nobody "really good" seriously considered UofL.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

I think Payne portal problem was multilayered.

UofL is a tainted brand with punishments hanging over its head.

Payne took to long to hire coaches because he waited until Nolan and Duke lost before hiring ANYONE. Next (and this is just my opinion) he got told "NO" by a lot of coaches. It took a while to hire that 2nd assistant because - he got told "No" by his first few choices. I think this is why he wasn't able to get his staff in place quickly and I think the fact he had trouble finding coaches is perfectly illustrated by the hiring of Jamison to an on-court role - a man who had been in an off-court office role for well over a decade.

His inability to quickly hire a staff allowed for other programs to get in the ear of the best prospects before UofL was even out of the gate. Then you've got a first time head coach, Nolan Smith - a name but not much of a guy known for coaching or doing really anything for that matter and you've got multiple time failed coach Danny Manning and a guy who used to schedule the travel for Oregon trying to convince you to come play for a program that probably won't be allowed to play in the tournament. UofL never had a chance in the portal. I think that point is further proven by the fact that outside of BHH - nobody visited UofL. Outside of tainted product Emoni Bates nobody "really good" seriously considered UofL.

I 100% agree with you the portal problem is multi layered.

But you're reaching with the staff delay portion of your theory.

The timeline theory just doesn't work for you given the dates of announcements.

Hunter entered the portal on 4/18 and signed on 6/2. Nolan was announced 4/4.. Ramey did announce on 3/31 and signed on 6/10, you're talking a couple days behind on a guy that would sign 60 days after announcing. Malachi Smith entered the portal on 4/27, signed on 6/2.

Osunniyi and Lofton enter the portal on 4/28. Lofton signs on 6/17. Ossunniyi signs 5/17. Etc, etc, etc.

UofL made guys final list. UofL made many final lists.

The reality is a theory that explains the portal failure probably falls in the layer of NIL, status of the program overall (we sucked), players not wanting to risk playing for a first time HC, and NCAAT eligibility issues.

 

[Thecycle27]

We will get more clarity on how much the NCAA cloud has this spring and summer. If they can’t land legit players in the portal with quality playing time available and no cloud then the program has whole lot of bigger issues. They land high level guys plus keep key guys then we know the NCAA cloud was a legit problem.

 

[nccardfan]

Wasn't Mack under the same "cloud" that Payne was? I would like to hear the difference why Mack was able to bring players in but big time recruiter Payne wasn't?

 

[TheRealVille]

The program was under the "cloud", once the FBI sting involved Louisville. When Chris Mack was hired, the storm clouds were off in the distance and it was looking like it may not be as bad as forecast.

Mack, a experienced and successful head coach, with mostly Pitino's players, won a lot of games, reaching number 1 in the polls. Then covid hit and canceled the season.

But recruiting continued with UofL as a prominent and successful program and grad transfers were convinced there wouldn't be any ban on post season play. That all changed when Mack was suspended by UofL for those 6 games.

The latest violations were minor but once again the NCAA added them to the FBI sting charges and Louisville was being seen as a rogue program who simply couldn't abide by the rules. Then it was announced the decision on sanctions would be decided for the upcoming 2022/23 season.

The cloud suddenly was huge and sitting right on top of the program. Coaches all over the country stepped up their rhetoric that Louisville was going to get hit hard and going there was not in anyone's best interests.

When Louisville hired a first time coach coming off a 18 loss season, it just didn't take much convincing there are other major programs recruits and transfers can go to without there being a shit storm. Why take the chance with Louisville? When Mack was winning here, the risks were minimal but once he quit and the program was floundering, the risks were suddenly very high.

It was a perfect storm for Louisville even though the FBI sting accusations were thrown out and there was no more sanctions coming. Now the cloud is a broken program ran by a coach who appears not up for the job.

 

[Thecycle27]

Wasn't Mack under the same "cloud" that Payne was? I would like to hear the difference why Mack was able to bring players in but big time recruiter Payne wasn't?

What players did Mack bring in? The Super 6 was a dud. Johnson and Jones didn’t make the tournament. It’s not like Mack was killing it especially with High School players. He missed the tournament both years where it 100% his guys.

The is a huge difference in not knowing when the hammer is coming and knowing the hammer is coming. Everyone knew the hammer was coming this year. That mattered how much we will never know.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

We can use this NCAA/FBI excuse as long as we want. It doesn’t change the fact that no program anywhere has declined like this one has. And some had far more compelling evidence against them.

The longer you continue to use that excuse, the longer it will take us to recover—because you’re waiting to fix the things that need to be fixed. The first step is correctly identifying the problem…

 

[TheRealVille]

Zipp, you leave out that Louisville was the only program the FBI charged that was already on probation. Don't you consider this a burden the other programs didn't have to be concerned with?

Let's just pretend there was no stripper scandal and the Bowen situation happened just like it did at UofL. Pitino and Jurich would have remained and nothing that has happened since would have happened. No David Padgett, no Chris Mack and no Kenny Payne.

Yes, we have declined much faster than the other FBI sting programs because we were on probation from a devastating scandal. Again, I don't know why this is so hard to understand.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Zipp, you leave out that Louisville was the only program the FBI charged that was already on probation. Don't you consider this a burden the other programs didn't have to be concerned with?…

It was only a burden because that’s what we turned it into.

Even after a self imposed postseason ban—one of Doc Ramsay’s few mistakes—we were still riding high in 2016-17 after all of that prior stuff had happened. Why? Because we didn’t commit suicide otherwise. We controlled the damage. We didn’t make bad situations worse.

Just as importantly, in those days, we didn’t take risks with fan support and with performance on the field. No chance in hell, for example, we would have put a first time head coach in charge of what was one of the highest profile basketball programs anywhere. And now we have to think about what everything costs.

We are largely responsible for our own demise with mistakes that were made and then compounded. Until you start holding yourself responsible for your own outcomes, you’re not turning things around…

 

[Thecycle27]

I agree the program needs to move on. Here we are 5-6 years later still blaming everyone except Pitino and his staff.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

…Here we are 5-6 years later still blaming everyone except Pitino and his staff.

To the contrary, we’re still blaming people in the distant past for major problems that persist years later.

No chance in hell that makes sense or failures would never be turned around. You gotta start doing the right stuff…

 

[TheRealVille]

It was only a burden because that’s what we turned it into.

Even after a self imposed postseason ban—one of Doc Ramsay’s few mistakes—we were still riding high in 2016-17 after all of that prior stuff had happened. Why? Because we didn’t commit suicide otherwise. We controlled the damage. We didn’t make bad situations worse.

Just as importantly, in those days, we didn’t take risks with fan support and with performance on the field. No chance in hell, for example, we would have put a first time head coach in charge of what was one of the highest profile basketball programs anywhere. And now we have to think about what everything costs.

We are largely responsible for our own demise with mistakes that were made and then compounded. Until you start holding yourself responsible for your own outcomes, you’re not turning things around…

I agree totally. The reaction to the FBI sting was in error, but in my opinion, the stripper scandal forced the Universities hand. And the errors continued and snowballed to where we are now.
Then there's the conspiracies about Papa John and the former Governor about Pitino and Jurich that I never fully understood.

Either by choice or neglect, the basketball program has been damaged to the point that we had to celebrate a National Championship anniversary with a coaches poll #1 banner.

 

[Thecycle27]

To the contrary, we’re still blaming people in the distant past for major problems that persist years later.

No chance in hell that makes sense or failures would never be turned around. You gotta start doing the right stuff…

The only thing I have ever said is the entire situation prevented coaches from acquiring better players. That isn’t an excuse or playing the blame game that is reality. It also not some conspiracy. Player acquisition has and will always be the key to Louisville sports. Anything that hinders that process negatively impacts the program.

There is nothing hindering the program in acquiring players today. The athletic program has several great program that do it the right way. KP will do it the right way the only question is will it work. No idea but if he fails it will be on him not anyone else.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

These conversations rarely go anywhere. Was it the offenses that destroyed the program, how upper mgt handled those offenses, or being treated unfairly by the NCAA and media? Oh and the cloud?

It was a combination of all that and probably some more.

What we do know is the program got destroyed, and it didn't happen overnight. I can understand how the totality of all this becomes a little too much to wrap a head around and it's therapeutic to fixate on a preferred narrative. Whatever works I'm all for it.

 

[achilles992000]

we have no point guards or big men coming in next year.
how do we get better next year? what if Ellis leaves? then we have no scoring for next year.

 

[Knucklehank1]

we have no point guards or big men coming in next year.
how do we get better next year? what if Ellis leaves? then we have no scoring for next year.

We will through the transfer portal.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

The only thing I have ever said is the entire situation prevented coaches from acquiring better players…

You have to stand in front of the mirror at some point. That still doesn’t sound to me like we’re blaming ourselves nearly enough…

 

[TheRealVille]

we have no point guards or big men coming in next year.
how do we get better next year? what if Ellis leaves? then we have no scoring for next year.

Way too soon to know what the roster will be for next season. Coming and going to be determined.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

We are also a city college and don't have the same protection that some of those other state flagship schools that broke their rules have, like KU, UNC, etc. So if you try to handle it the exact same way those guys did, don't be so sure you're walking away how those guys did.

Anybody notice that NIL penalty against Miami FL WOMEN'S basketball team hahahahahaha now if that doesn't tell you what's going on here what else does? They are not going after state flagship programs, they are going after programs that may not have that protection way up top. Are we really to believe the only NIL offenders the NCAA can catch are the WOMEN'S basketball team for a middling program?

Are we really to believe in this crazy era of NIL it's the Miami FL women's team that is where the issues are?

Nothing has changed. Look out Cleveland St.