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Perception vs Reality

Dec 28, 2015
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I don't hide the fact that I "monitor" that cesspool of stupidity known as The Lair. I have a simple question: are things that rosy with the amazing "talent" they're getting to commit or is it a matter of them being "excited" over anyone who'll give them the time of day? My God we have a poster here (looking at you Pike96) comparing their players to Alabama and warning us of the things to come. They can't understand why Harris would go to Bama instead of UK. How are they in on all these players? Or is it a case of se ol sh!t we've heard for 40 yrs (bigger faster stronger). I know Homer is a spoof account but there's plenty of them over there already talking 8-9 wins so soon after the debacles of the last 2 seasons. And then there's Jauk11 who's a lunatic even by their standards
 
In terms of rankings I look at where they stand in relation to the rest of the SEC East or in Louisvilles case where they stand in their division. Year end year out they are going to finish fourth and with Muschamp USC will right next to UK. The perception is great recruiting classes automatically lead to wins. The reality it takes really good coaching and player development to win. The perception is those rankings hold true for four years the reality is classes fall apart over those four years transfers, injuries or poor evaluation. That is why I would like to see every class ranked again in four years based on actual on field performance.

I look at recruiting like having a bunch of money, it gives a program a really solid foundation. The key is how programs are going to invest or build on that foundation. When you have a great coach with great recruiting then great things can happen. That is why traditional powers dominated they have great recruiting and great coaching.

The challenge for both programs is recruiting every year at a high level. It is really hard to get a 4 or 5 star player to commit when they are younger players producing at that same position. There are only a handful of programs that 4 or 5 star players will agree or understand they are going to have to redshirt or wait for there opportunity.

With UK we will see what happens because their issue has been player development and coaching. They should be excited about their OLine commits they are legit.
 
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Looking at their recruiting, and their results, it struck me that perhaps Stoops has a knack for finding the over rated. He has farmed Ohio for highly rated kids that apparently Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State don't really want. He has pulled highly rated kids out of rural Kentucky, and the really good ones went to USC or Alabama. The highly rated kids he has gotten have not performed, with a very few exceptions, making me wonder if he has a knack for finding the over rated, and/or doesn't coach them very well once he gets them. Imagine what happens to a locker room full of over rated kids, losing, pointing fingers, transferring out. Kentucky.
 
Looking at their recruiting, and their results, it struck me that perhaps Stoops has a knack for finding the over rated. He has farmed Ohio for highly rated kids that apparently Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State don't really want. He has pulled highly rated kids out of rural Kentucky, and the really good ones went to USC or Alabama. The highly rated kids he has gotten have not performed, with a very few exceptions, making me wonder if he has a knack for finding the over rated, and/or doesn't coach them very well once he gets them. Imagine what happens to a locker room full of over rated kids, losing, pointing fingers, transferring out. Kentucky.


Michigan and OSU recruit nationally so unless it's a very highly rated kid in Ohio, they'll get somebody better somewhere else. Many highly rated recruits are not getting a RS and are being thrown out there before they are ready because of the lack of depth. Every team has kids that transfer every year. UK hasn't had any more than normal.
 
Looking at their recruiting, and their results, it struck me that perhaps Stoops has a knack for finding the over rated. He has farmed Ohio for highly rated kids that apparently Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State don't really want. He has pulled highly rated kids out of rural Kentucky, and the really good ones went to USC or Alabama. The highly rated kids he has gotten have not performed, with a very few exceptions, making me wonder if he has a knack for finding the over rated, and/or doesn't coach them very well once he gets them. Imagine what happens to a locker room full of over rated kids, losing, pointing fingers, transferring out. Kentucky.

Landon Young who played in the East/West Bowl stood out very well and won honors in that game over all the others. Stoops has 3 OL 4-star committed to the kitties So show me where they have been over-rated. I think they are not over-rated but under-coached!!
 
The only way either program can compete for their division titles is by developing whatever talent makes it to campus. UK to this point has settled by playing people that aren't ready or aren't performing. Until they hold all their players accountable they are going to really struggle when times get tough. That is when the players and their families start questioning coaches. UK let the players run the program under Stoops. By the sounds of it Stoops is done babying the players. We will see how they respond.

It is really interesting to see their recruiting success despite their on the field performance. The SEC is such a big draw to kids. The SEC is many things, but their marketing/brand is the strongest in college football. They have no football history, very limited success in getting kids to the NFL, no big time bowl wins or conference wins in their entire existence what else could it be?
 
With a new head coach, I always monitor how the team performs on the side of the ball--offense or defense-- where the guy coached. Results should improve there faster than anywhere else.

And that analysis tells you all you really need to know about Stupes, an ex-D coordinator. After three years, their defense might be slightly better. But if it is, it ain't much.

At this point, they're just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. That boat's still goin' down.

LPT Football: Same as it ever was...
 
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I have come to the conclusion that UK's mentality as it applies to recruiting is a little upside/down. At some point you simply can't overlook that given what they are perceived to be bringing in doesn't remotely match what is exiting and by that I mean on Draft Day. We seem to be polar opposite for reasons I still haven't quite grasped. Yes there is Randall Cobb and Bud Dupree...unquestionable, legit talent who are or will be major contributors on franchises with legitimate playoff aspirations. But when you look at the frequency that Louisville players are getting drafted vs. Kentucky you either question their development model or whether those kids were legit coming out of high school.

I think in the case of Stoops he's been able to sell immediate playing time; what should be of concern to anyone that is a UK fan is that still seems to be the case...suggesting people have either transferred out or simply haven't developed. I think it's a combination of both because they seem a little rudderless on both sides of the ball, i.e. the talent they have recruited isn't fitted to a coherent scheme. We worry about keeping anywhere from four to six kids realistically harboring the possibility of being early entrants and that's been the case for I believe three or four consecutive years now (and I don't think I can be accused of ginning the numbers; we're about to go into our first year in four not having lost a starting safety a year early to the NFL having kept Harvey-Clemens intact). I honestly can't remember the last UK player in that position...maybe Williamson but I don't recall where he was projected a year ago.
 
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I have come to the conclusion that UK's mentality as it applies to recruiting is a little upside/down. At some point you simply can't overlook that given what they are perceived to be bringing in doesn't remotely match what is exiting and by that I mean on Draft Day. We seem to be polar opposite for reasons I still haven't quite grasped. Yes there is Randall Cobb and Bud Dupree...unquestionable, legit talent who are or will be major contributors on franchises with legitimate playoff aspirations. But when you look at the frequency that Louisville players are getting drafted vs. Kentucky you either question their development model or whether those kids were legit coming out of high school.

I think in the case of Stoops he's been able to sell immediate playing time; what should be of concern to anyone that is a UK fan is that still seems to be the case...suggesting people have either transferred out or simply haven't developed. I think it's a combination of both because they seem a little rudderless on both sides of the ball, i.e. the talent they have recruited isn't fitted to a coherent scheme. We worry about keeping anywhere from four to six kids realistically harboring the possibility of being early entrants and that's been the case for I believe three or four consecutive years now (and I don't think I can be accused of ginning the numbers; we're about to go into our first year in four not having lost a starting safety a year early to the NFL having kept Harvey-Clemens intact). I honestly can't remember the last UK player in that position...maybe Williamson but I don't recall where he was projected a year ago.


I'll help. Williamson was a 3rd round draft choice after his senior year. Cobb was the last player to leave early.

The jury is definitely still out on Stoops and company in game management and Dawson was completely in over his head last year as a first year O coordinator calling his own plays.
But Stoops knows what talented players look like just like Petrino does. Time and again both have offered Lower ranked players early to have bigger schools jump on them late. Young, for example, the guy who just got his 5th star was offered and committed as a soph. Difference is, Petrino has shown he can develop and win with his players as a head coach. Stoops has shown he can develop his defensive players as a coordinator but has struggled at times with head coaching decisions.

But the talent Stoops has recruited is still young for the most part and that just won't cut it when the team across from you in your league every week is more talented AND has more mature players. Kentucky is still playing catch up in that regard to the rest of the SEC and UL. Stoops will have at least 2 more years to figure it out. It should help that the talent is definitely considered much better by both rankings and offer lists. That doesn't guarantee success by any stretch of the imagination, but it can't hurt.
 
The group of rising programs with which Louisville is often categorized is not very long:

Boise State
TCU
Virginia Tech
Baylor

For the years these programs rose, 'recruiting magic' was achieved by virtue of 1 - a total commitment to finding players to fit a system, 2 - finding athletes to make into players 3 - by being intuitive enough to put players into positions to which they played to their talents better. Recent examples of #3 were the 3 QB's UofL signed who were first round draft picks in the NFL...........Teddy Bridgewater at QB, of course; Calvin Pryor at Safety and Marcus Smith at Defensive End/Outside Linebacker. The fluidity of talent recognition has been an integral part of Louisville's success. Needless to say, numbers 1 and 2, above, also represent these guys.

Coaches were hired who would develop these players into disciplined and hungry football players who put their teams first. This last bit is not rocket science, of course. And both Baylor and TCU - and in a sense, Virginia Tech as well - have managed to upgrade their programs now to compete in recruiting with the larger traditional programs in their extremely talent-rich state, as well as draw more nationally owing to significant cachet involving their obvious abilities to develop guys into future pros and into winners at the college level. UofL, on the other hand, relies almost strictly on local Intracity talent and a wider field outside of a below average recruiting state. We have also combed possible transfers and roped in some truly great athletes via that route - as well as Juco's.

What Louisville is hoping for - and are willing to achieve - is a more national recruiting effort involving the "more star" guys. But one consolation, should we not become a recruiting giant, is in our trademark earned so avidly already. Players realize they will be challenged at Louisville from Day One and going forward in their years at the school. Every single player realizes he will be "recruited over" and will have to earn his time on the field.
 
It will be interesting to see if we can still recruit the southern Florida with the same efficiency since Richert has taken over at Miami.
 
I don't hide the fact that I "monitor" that cesspool of stupidity known as The Lair. I have a simple question: are things that rosy with the amazing "talent" they're getting to commit or is it a matter of them being "excited" over anyone who'll give them the time of day? My God we have a poster here (looking at you Pike96) comparing their players to Alabama and warning us of the things to come. They can't understand why Harris would go to Bama instead of UK. How are they in on all these players? Or is it a case of se ol sh!t we've heard for 40 yrs (bigger faster stronger). I know Homer is a spoof account but there's plenty of them over there already talking 8-9 wins so soon after the debacles of the last 2 seasons. And then there's Jauk11 who's a lunatic even by their standards

UK fans face so many bitter, painful, and humiliating losses year after year. It's hard for us, as fans of an achieving program, to relate to what they must go through.

Anyone looking in from the outside objectively knows UK will never have more than fleeting success in football. And the time for that success is certainly not right now with a coaching staff that has proven they can't manage games or develop players.

Yet these people still have to do something to give themselves hope. So they forget what was plain as day in the final debacle month of the last 3 seasons. They daydream that the few minor changes made in the off-season will be the difference. They pray that 4 years of Stoops is just the right amount of Stoops to get to a bottom tier Bowl and have some vague sense of hope to carry into the off-season.

My favorite part about all this is that Louisville has directly ruined 2 of their seasons and left them with no legitimate hope to sustain them through the long winter. We've stopped them from reaching what is probably the pinnacle for UK football, going to a 6-win participation trophy bowl. Twice. It doesn't get much better than that.
 
part of their rankings for their recruits are a bi product of being in the SEC. From a fb stanpoint they get the benefit of a doubt as being good players if a SEC team is recruiting them. Just like UK players in BB get overdrafted some warranted some not.
 
I have come to the conclusion that UK's mentality as it applies to recruiting is a little upside/down. At some point you simply can't overlook that given what they are perceived to be bringing in doesn't remotely match what is exiting and by that I mean on Draft Day. We seem to be polar opposite for reasons I still haven't quite grasped. Yes there is Randall Cobb and Bud Dupree...unquestionable, legit talent who are or will be major contributors on franchises with legitimate playoff aspirations. But when you look at the frequency that Louisville players are getting drafted vs. Kentucky you either question their development model or whether those kids were legit coming out of high school.

I think in the case of Stoops he's been able to sell immediate playing time; what should be of concern to anyone that is a UK fan is that still seems to be the case...suggesting people have either transferred out or simply haven't developed. I think it's a combination of both because they seem a little rudderless on both sides of the ball, i.e. the talent they have recruited isn't fitted to a coherent scheme. We worry about keeping anywhere from four to six kids realistically harboring the possibility of being early entrants and that's been the case for I believe three or four consecutive years now (and I don't think I can be accused of ginning the numbers; we're about to go into our first year in four not having lost a starting safety a year early to the NFL having kept Harvey-Clemens intact). I honestly can't remember the last UK player in that position...maybe Williamson but I don't recall where he was projected a year ago.


CH, don't rule out "The Curse of the Bear". Some 'curses' never go away and that is just too darn bad for uk. Sux to be them.
 
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