- - Optimistic Bias Incoming - -
The virus has suspended and suppressed sports, concerts, events, and even indoor dining at restaurants. As we know, limited supply and exclusivity can drive up demand. With attendance numbers dropping at virtually every power 5 program (for a myriad of reasons) over the last 5 years, could this recent experience reinvigorate live sporting events? I think so.
The managing director at Sportradar David Lampiutt said back in May that there was “huge pent-up desire” for live sports. Baseball’s recent return is proof there is a skyrocketing demand for live sports as well. An average of 4 million viewers watched ESPN’s Opening Day broadcast of the Yankees vs the Nationals. That was a 232% increase from last year’s Opening Night broadcast and is the most watched regular season MLB game since 2011.
Want more proof? Here you go:
The WNBA season started last Saturday by averaging 540,000 viewers on ABC for its opener between the Los Angeles Sparks and Phoenix Mercury... that was a 20% increase from 2019.
English Premier League afternoon matches on NBCSN were up 31%, averaging 312,000; NBC, however, has averaged 373,000 viewers for its broadcasts, down 17% from before the shutdown.
The NWSL opened the Challenge Cup with 572,000 viewers on CBS, beating the previous NWSL record of 190,000 from a 2014 ESPN broadcast.
UFC’s debut on Fight Island back on July 11 drew 1.3 million pay-per-view buys, the most since 2018.
The MLS's opening game between Miami and Orlando averaged 464,000 viewers on ESPN, the fifth highest most-viewed regular season broadcast in five years.
NASCAR’s first broadcast on July 4th weekend had a total audience delivery of 4.37 million viewers, which was a million more than the same weekend in 2019.
The other reality is that the back half of this year will (potentially) be flooded with a supply of live sports such as NBA playoffs, PGA majors, MLB playoffs, pro and college football, pro soccer, UFC PPVs, and more.
Also, it is reasonable to assume that COVID-19 isn't going anywhere any time soon BUT testing will get better, treatments will improve, hospitals will be better equipped, and most importantly people will become more comfortable going out in public. Human psychology shows that as experience increases, fear (and hypochondria) decreases. It is also very clear that money drives institutional decision making. Even with TV revenue, many schools cannot survive a complete loss of ticket revenue. Net net, live events with fan attendance is coming back. And even with the incredible supply of sports coming over the next 5 months, people will yearn for and appreciate these events like never before. I believe this harsh experience and heavy dose of gratitude will have a great impact on attendance and in-person game day experiences in the future. And that is taking into account the thousands of people who will continue to live in paralyzing fear of the virus (for right or wrong).
Heading towards this reconfigured football schedule and listening to Vince's press conference today, I feel good about the near future and I'm excited as ever for fall sports to kick off. We'll take hits as circumstances change, but I'm choosing to be positive about this situation moving forward.
Cheers!
The virus has suspended and suppressed sports, concerts, events, and even indoor dining at restaurants. As we know, limited supply and exclusivity can drive up demand. With attendance numbers dropping at virtually every power 5 program (for a myriad of reasons) over the last 5 years, could this recent experience reinvigorate live sporting events? I think so.
The managing director at Sportradar David Lampiutt said back in May that there was “huge pent-up desire” for live sports. Baseball’s recent return is proof there is a skyrocketing demand for live sports as well. An average of 4 million viewers watched ESPN’s Opening Day broadcast of the Yankees vs the Nationals. That was a 232% increase from last year’s Opening Night broadcast and is the most watched regular season MLB game since 2011.
Want more proof? Here you go:
The WNBA season started last Saturday by averaging 540,000 viewers on ABC for its opener between the Los Angeles Sparks and Phoenix Mercury... that was a 20% increase from 2019.
English Premier League afternoon matches on NBCSN were up 31%, averaging 312,000; NBC, however, has averaged 373,000 viewers for its broadcasts, down 17% from before the shutdown.
The NWSL opened the Challenge Cup with 572,000 viewers on CBS, beating the previous NWSL record of 190,000 from a 2014 ESPN broadcast.
UFC’s debut on Fight Island back on July 11 drew 1.3 million pay-per-view buys, the most since 2018.
The MLS's opening game between Miami and Orlando averaged 464,000 viewers on ESPN, the fifth highest most-viewed regular season broadcast in five years.
NASCAR’s first broadcast on July 4th weekend had a total audience delivery of 4.37 million viewers, which was a million more than the same weekend in 2019.
The other reality is that the back half of this year will (potentially) be flooded with a supply of live sports such as NBA playoffs, PGA majors, MLB playoffs, pro and college football, pro soccer, UFC PPVs, and more.
Also, it is reasonable to assume that COVID-19 isn't going anywhere any time soon BUT testing will get better, treatments will improve, hospitals will be better equipped, and most importantly people will become more comfortable going out in public. Human psychology shows that as experience increases, fear (and hypochondria) decreases. It is also very clear that money drives institutional decision making. Even with TV revenue, many schools cannot survive a complete loss of ticket revenue. Net net, live events with fan attendance is coming back. And even with the incredible supply of sports coming over the next 5 months, people will yearn for and appreciate these events like never before. I believe this harsh experience and heavy dose of gratitude will have a great impact on attendance and in-person game day experiences in the future. And that is taking into account the thousands of people who will continue to live in paralyzing fear of the virus (for right or wrong).
Heading towards this reconfigured football schedule and listening to Vince's press conference today, I feel good about the near future and I'm excited as ever for fall sports to kick off. We'll take hits as circumstances change, but I'm choosing to be positive about this situation moving forward.
Cheers!
