Not sure how there are still Petrino defenders out there.

[Strongtino]

He's 30-16 since returning to Louisville. 1-9 against ranked teams with losses to 2015 Houston, Boston College and Kentucky at home and UVA in 2015. Not sure what the spread was in the 2015 Houston game but he was 3+ TD favorites in the BC/UK games. Not only that but the team NEVER looks prepared or disciplined. Stupid penalties and turnovers plagued the team in year 1 and they plague the team in year 4.

Not only has he lost to bad teams but he's also barely sqeeked by a number of bad teams:
- Wake 2014
- UK 2014
- NC State 2015
- BC 2015
- Wake 2015
- UVA 2015

Blown out by UGA and LSU is their last 2 bowls. Not sure he has beaten more than 2-3 "good" teams in his 4 year tenure. TAMU and Notre Dame were both in complete downward spirals when Louisville beat them...I'm not sure what game outside the FSU you can point to and say that was a quality win for him.

 

[Knucklehank1]

So what are you saying? Fire him? You think an athletic dept that is gonna owe Jurich $4-5M, Pitino probably $10M in settlement, millions to the NCAA as part of stripper scandal, is suddenly gonna be able to buy him out.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Hank is right can't afford to fire him.

If you want him gone, you need to hope the issues within the athletic dept and another job offer lure him out the door. There will be a lot of jobs available at the end of the year.

I agree the program is trending south - I will split hairs and argue the ND game was a good win - he did it with a FR that had started a few games, and that ND team was good enough to beat LSU in a bowl that year, they were a decent team.

Fans probably don't give enough credit for middling wins either.

But again, that's splitting hairs.

Things aren't so good these days. And that's with a Heisman trophy winner at QB.

 

[The Public Enemy]

Hank is right can't afford to fire him.

If you want him gone, you need to hope the issues within the athletic dept and another job offer lure him out the door. There will be a lot of jobs available at the end of the year.

I agree the program is trending south - I will split hairs and argue the ND game was a good win - he did it with a FR that had started a few games, and that ND team was good enough to beat LSU in a bowl that year, they were a decent team.

Fans probably don't give enough credit for middling wins either.

But again, that's splitting hairs.

Things aren't so good these days. And that's with a Heisman trophy winner at QB.

Don't see Petrino being fired...but if another school offers I would not shed a tear....just make sure you get a quality up and coming and hungry coach to replace him....

 

[Steelers2012]

I think it's entirely understandable to defend Petrino. He's the guy that took the program to heights never before seen here in his first stint. It's that previous success that made fans, and Tom Jurich, welcome him back. It's logical to believe he could do it again; you have to assume he hasn't forgotten how to coach. Having said that, it's also entirely understandable to blame him for the very real downward spiral we are currently on. It's just baffling for us fans to comprehend how the same guy can have such different levels of success. MY best guess is that his competitive fire, professional swagger, and 24/7 obsession with winning has been lost with his issues after leaving UofL. The whole "image makeover" thing has forced him to resist his basic nature to intimidate, dominate, and conquer. We have actually needed "Bobby MFing Petrino" to come back, not a kinder, gentler Coach Petrino.

 

[Strongtino]

If the new administration tucks their tails between their legs and keeps Jurich there's absolutely no way Petrino will be fired. We've unfortunately seen that in his unwillingness to do so with Rick and I have a feeling that he'll be the same way with Petrino; maybe even more so since he stuck out his neck and vouched for him when he re-hired him. Jurich's ego won't allow him to walk away and look defeated.

There's absolutely no reason that the program has falling backwards under his tenure especially with the best player in college football.

 

[BPGhost]

So what are you saying? Fire him? You think an athletic dept that is gonna owe Jurich $4-5M, Pitino probably $10M in settlement, millions to the NCAA as part of stripper scandal, is suddenly gonna be able to buy him out.

No but, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that he hire competent assistants - particularly at the salaries that we’re willing to fork out.

 

[Hedgerunner]

I do not understand why you all want Petrino fired, his offense
is doing fine, it is the "D" that needs to be fixed. Lousy tackling and no good coverage on receivers.

 

[Rollem Cards]

Just to be Devils advocate how much will we lose I n season ticket sales if we lose out?

Or only win one or two more?

It’s going to cost us either way.

But IF we keep losing, how long will it take to get fans back?

 

[SchmidtyNole]

I don’t think Petrino is the problem. It is who he hired to run his defense that is the problem. Clemson, BC and NC State all scored tons of points in your three losses. That is as simple of a fix as firing Surmans and getting a good DC to replace him.

I will be interested in this week’s game at Doak. We are going with a True Freshman QB and are averaging 17.5 points per game. Will we help make Louisville’s defense look good or will we ring us the points too. I expect Louisville to score on us. This is a really interesting game even though we both have three losses.

 

[Strongtino]

2017 109 in turnovers lost
2016 100th
2015 89th
2014 43rd

We've gotten worse each season in turnovers.

Penalties
2017 - 100th
2016 - 118th
2015 - 110th
2014 - 108th

No change in player discipline in 4 years.

Offensive efficiency
2017 - 38th
2016 - 10th
2015 - 37th
2014 - 27th

I didn't use total offense because I feel like that stat is a little misleading. Louisville's defense has been so bad in recent years that they've accumulated a lot of "catch up" and "garbage time" yardage. To be dubbed an "offensive genius" he's had awfully pedestrian numbers.

To put the offensive efficiency ranking into perspective...Jeff Brohm's rankings the last 4 years.

2017 - 40th
2016 - 18th
2015 - 15th
2014 - 15th

 

[billoliver40]

What you guys are looking at is the same thing UK looked at last year when the fire Stoops battle cry was in full throated scream.

Buyout money.

Someone stated BP has an 8 mill buyout if TJ stays. The Pitino thing....I don't see how he gets 44 million, but I don't see how North Carolina gets a Christmas bonus in October from the NCAA. IF Jurich decides to leave, or is requested to leave, there's more money
Then you have to get new coaches....and if it's Brohm you're going to have to help with HIS buyout plus salary.
The school is likely paying Grantham something....not much since he went to State, but something.
Louisville still has to pay whoever the named head coach and staff...

Like a lot of schools, that's a heckuva lot of money.

 

[Louisvillian]

Time to quit reaching. This is a pretty bad FBS team right now and has been for close to a year, all the while, sporting the best offensive college player in many years.

Lamar always breeds hope. He’s incredible.

Thats about it.

 

[Strongtino]

I'm just venting. There's absolutely no chance Petrino gets fired...he's owed too much money. UL could (and honestly might) lose every game the rest of the season and he wouldn't be fired. Petrino does need to overhaul that staff though....something if off and off bad. Its been off for nearly a year and its off so bad that changing DCs hasn't fixed it. He needs to figure out and correct it because this season seems all but lost but there's still hope with the talent on the roster.

 

[Knucklehank1]

I'm just venting. There's absolutely no chance Petrino gets fired...he's owed too much money. UL could (and honestly might) lose every game the rest of the season and he wouldn't be fired. Petrino does need to overhaul that staff though....something if off and off bad. Its been off for nearly a year and its off so bad that changing DCs hasn't fixed it. He needs to figure out and correct it because this season seems all but lost but there's still hope with the talent on the roster.

Don't disagree at all but for some inane reason we gave Sirmon a 3 year deal. So to just can him after the season would cost us $2M

 

[Louisvillian]

I'm just venting. There's absolutely no chance Petrino gets fired...he's owed too much money. UL could (and honestly might

Don't disagree at all but for some inane reason we gave Sirmon a 3 year deal. So to just can him after the season would cost us $2M

and if we keep him?

 

[Thecycle27]

Comparing Brohms offensive efficiency isn't a good comparison. Completely different level of competition.

The biggest concern is the team is losing games in all phases. I really don't think people understand how small the margin for error is in college football. They had Clemson beat last year, then they gave up a long kick off return. They never got a stop after that, but still had chance to win on offense. Didn't get it done. They had UK beat last year, fumble then the defense couldn't get a stop. This year they had chance to beat NC State and BC, but turned the ball over.

Good coaching staffs build winning cultures, They expect to win and then they find a way. That is really hard to build. To me that is what is most concerning in year 4 they are doing things that traditionally bad programs do....find a way to lose. Once a losing mentality starts it is really hard for a staff to turn around.

 

[Strongtino]

Comparing Brohms offensive efficiency isn't a good comparison. Completely different level of competition.

The biggest concern is the team is losing games in all phases. I really don't think people understand how small the margin for error is in college football. They had Clemson beat last year, then they gave up a long kick off return. They never got a stop after that, but still had chance to win on offense. Didn't get it done. They had UK beat last year, fumble then the defense couldn't get a stop. This year they had chance to beat NC State and BC, but turned the ball over.

Good coaching staffs build winning cultures, They expect to win and then they find a way. That is really hard to build. To me that is what is most concerning in year 4 they are doing things that traditionally bad programs do....find a way to lose. Once a losing mentality starts it is really hard for a staff to turn around.

Good post and good point.

Does anyone on this board actually feel good or confident when UL is in a close game? I don't...especially not against a decent team. I didn't blink an eye when UL allowed BC a long kick return yesterday...they've literally done that in every game they've lost. Didn't bat an eye when Lamar turned it over...love him to death but thats what he done against NC State, Clemson, UK....didn't bat an eye when Jaylen fumbled....because thats what this UL team does...play undisciplined football and turn the ball over.

 

[nccardfan]

Don't can Sirmon yet, demote him and make Ward DC. It can't be any worse. Let Sirmon work with the LBs.

 

[The Public Enemy]

Last good game from Petrino was last year at home against NC State...been downhill ever since and can see Louisville losing out...they are playing outside of LJ that bad

 

[Thecycle27]

Then there is special teams. Can't cover kicks again. The punt game was terrible yesterday instead of pinning a bad offensive team inside the 10 they kick it in the end zone or so low that it leads to a big return. The punt before half was terrible leading to a return to the 50. Against NC State they get an extra point blocked that would have made their lead 6 instead of driving for a game winning TD your driving for a tying TD. Every time they get momentum they give up a big play in the kicking game, NC, NC State, and BC. Then when Louisville returns they didn't get to the 20.

When you are average in all three phases and you turn the ball over in bunches you aren't winning many games period.

There is something not right and it is hard to not blame the head guy.

 

[Birdie King]

On kickoff returns we can't get it back it the 20. Our opponents have done much better. Poor Special Teams.

 

[CardsFirst]

Comparing Brohms offensive efficiency isn't a good comparison. Completely different level of competition.

The biggest concern is the team is losing games in all phases. I really don't think people understand how small the margin for error is in college football. They had Clemson beat last year, then they gave up a long kick off return. They never got a stop after that, but still had chance to win on offense. Didn't get it done. They had UK beat last year, fumble then the defense couldn't get a stop. This year they had chance to beat NC State and BC, but turned the ball over.

Good coaching staffs build winning cultures, They expect to win and then they find a way. That is really hard to build. To me that is what is most concerning in year 4 they are doing things that traditionally bad programs do....find a way to lose. Once a losing mentality starts it is really hard for a staff to turn around.

Good post and good point.

Does anyone on this board actually feel good or confident when UL is in a close game? I don't...especially not against a decent team. I didn't blink an eye when UL allowed BC a long kick return yesterday...they've literally done that in every game they've lost. Didn't bat an eye when Lamar turned it over...love him to death but thats what he done against NC State, Clemson, UK....didn't bat an eye when Jaylen fumbled....because thats what this UL team does...play undisciplined football and turn the ball over.

Feel comfortable in a close game? Right now I don’t feel comfortable in any game. We had a two touchdown lead and still managed to lose. I don’t see how we’re going to win 2 more games.

 

[CardsFirst]

Last good game from Petrino was last year at home against NC State...been downhill ever since and can see Louisville losing out...they are playing outside of LJ that bad

Hey don’t pick on Creque he’s doing his part!

 

[The Public Enemy]

Hey don’t pick on Creque he’s doing his part!

Truth...lol

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

When you are average in all three phases and you turn the ball over in bunches you aren't winning many games period.

I hear you. I will add, that D is not avg, it's bad. ST much tougher to rate, but they don't look too good there either I agree with you.

 

[Thecycle27]

Good teams do a couple of things that don't always get noticed.

First, they put bad teams away. The BC game up 21-7 the defense holds multiple time and offense does nothing. They missed the opportunity to put the game away which allowed BC to stick with their game plan. I knew at half time Louisville was going to be in a dog fight.

Second, each team unit protects the other unit. Every team has a unit that it leans on and special teams can be a catalyst for both. With this team they have to lean on the offense. The 3rd quarter the defense forces a field goal they miss. The offense goes 3 and out exactly what couldn't happen. Then on next possession they do it again. Their 3rd possession they turn it over. This defense isn't going to survive multiple bad offensive possession. The offense is not protecting the defense. The offense doesn't have to always produce points, but this team has to flip field position. The entire 3rd quarter BC had great field position because the offense didn't do anything. When the punt team gets a chance they have to pin the opponent deep.

Unfortunately I am also a Bengals fans, they do the same thing. Their strength is their defense but you can mark it down when the offense scores the other teams will come back score putting the pressure right back on the unit that isn't equipped to handle the pressure.

This has been the blue print in the 3 games they were favored heavily. Purdue fumble twice inside the 10 keeps Purdue in the game. North Carolina gets a comfortable lead gives up a kickoff return.

The bottom line is the offense has to protect this defense.

 

[BPGhost]

Good teams do a couple of things that don't always get noticed.

First, they put bad teams away. The BC game up 21-7 the defense holds multiple time and offense does nothing. They missed the opportunity to put the game away which allowed BC to stick with their game plan. I knew at half time Louisville was going to be in a dog fight.

Second, each team unit protects the other unit. Every team has a unit that it leans on and special teams can be a catalyst for both. With this team they have to lean on the offense. The 3rd quarter the defense forces a field goal they miss. The offense goes 3 and out exactly what couldn't happen. Then on next possession they do it again. Their 3rd possession they turn it over. This defense isn't going to survive multiple bad offensive possession. The offense is not protecting the defense. The offense doesn't have to always produce points, but this team has to flip field position. The entire 3rd quarter BC had great field position because the offense didn't do anything. When the punt team gets a chance they have to pin the opponent deep.

Unfortunately I am also a Bengals fans, they do the same thing. Their strength is their defense but you can mark it down when the offense scores the other teams will come back score putting the pressure right back on the unit that isn't equipped to handle the pressure.

This has been the blue print in the 3 games they were favored heavily. Purdue fumble twice inside the 10 keeps Purdue in the game. North Carolina gets a comfortable lead gives up a kickoff return.

The bottom line is the offense has to protect this defense.

Spot on - great post.

 

[Strongtino]

Petrino's 30 wins...7 of them are complete trash wins: Murray 14', FIU, Samford, Charlotte, Marshall, Murray 17', Kent State.

That leaves us with 23 wins:

of those 23 wins....9 of them are against teams that won 4 or fewer games that season:

2014
Wake - 3-9
Syracuse - 3-9

2015
BC - 3-9
Wake - 3-9 - (won 20-19)
Syracuse - 4-8
Virginia - 4-8 (come from behind, won by 7)

2016
Syracuse - 4-8
Duke 4-8 (nearly loses, controversial call helps win)
Virginia - 2-10 (final minute TD, wins by 7)

So of his 30 wins, 17 of them are against completely hapless programs. Also, notice that ALL of the ACC schools on the above list are getting better, not worse.

I thought pointing out how many teams he had beaten with 4 or fewer wins was important because honestly, I was surprised how many there was. Initially I was just going to talk about the teams under .500 but was surprised that basically a 3rd of his P5 wins are against teams that probably only won 1 or maybe 2 conference games that year.

So what are Petrino's "best" wins in his 4 years here?

Miami - 6-7
NC State - 8-5
Boston College - 7-6
Notre Dame - 8-5
Kentucky - 5-7
NC State - 7-6
Kentucky - 5-7
Texas A&M - 8-5
FSU - 10-3
NC State 7-6
Boston College 7-6
Wake Forest - 7-6

So in 4 years he's beaten 4 teams that have won 8 or more games and has beaten 9 teams that finished the season with a winning record.

Not.
Good.

 

[zipp]

...I didn't use total offense because I feel like that stat is a little misleading. Louisville's defense has been so bad in recent years that they've accumulated a lot of "catch up" and "garbage time" yardage. To be dubbed an "offensive genius" he's had awfully pedestrian numbers...

That's why you don't use just offense or those other stats you're quoting. AND you don't use anything without validating your approach...

I looked at current stats (as of 10-17-2017) for total offense, defense, and net yards. And I attempted to correlate those with RPI rank. Unless you try to match up your stat with on-the-field results, you haven't tried to validate your approach. Here's the r-squared results for each stat with respect to RPI...

Total Off 0.24
Total Def 0.42
Net Yards 0.57

These numbers were crunched for all of the teams in the FBS. And the best stat of the three is net yards.

Here are the Top 10 nationally in net yards for the P5 and their current AP poll rank in parentheses...

Ohio State 272.0 ypg (6)
Okla State 238.2 (10)
Bama 230.6 (1)
Okla 207.5 (9)
UGA 201.7 (3)
Wisconsin 201.5 (5)
Louisville 187.0 (NR)
Penn State 171.0 (2)
Wash State 166.7 (15)
Wash 166.5 (12)

U of L is only team on the list not ranked in the AP Top Twenty. And these AP numbers further validate the use of net yards as a performance stat.

The point of all this? At the moment, we're an anomaly. We have an underlying good team that's got some issues keeping it from performing better. But it's the "underlying good team" that you reference to the value of Petrino. He's got some issues to work on, and he knows that. Now, you shut up and let him do his job...

 

[Morgantown Card]

Good programs (even Bama) and good coaches (except for Nick Saban) have bad and/or underwhelming seasons once in a while. It happens. I am not happy right now either. People are over-reacting because Bobby's supposed to win 10 games and drill everyone by 30 points.

 

[zipp]

As further statistical evidence of the validity of net yards...

Regressing RPI and net yards for just the P5 yields the following correlations...

Total Off 0.24
Total Def 0.45
Net Yards 0.62

And looking all the way down the P5 Top 20 on net yards nationally, only four teams are not also in the Top 20 of the AP...Louisville, Ga Tech, and Syracuse, none of which are ranked and interestingly all from the ACC; and Mississippi State is #34 in also receiving votes.

[Could three AP unranked teams from the same conference indicate underlying conference strength?...]

Clearly, net yards is normally a good indicator of a good football team. Petrino needs to find out why we're not at the moment...

 

[zipp]

I don't think you'll have to defend him. I think he bolts anyways, especially if Jurich isn't retained.

You sure Stupes won't edge Petrino out for that next big opportunity?

LPT Football: We think we wanna keep him...

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Last good game from Petrino was last year at home against NC State...been downhill ever since and can see Louisville losing out...they are playing outside of LJ that bad

I agree with the first part of your post. It's been so long since this team has looked good.

I was really hoping the 2 week bye vs Kent St and Murray St would allow the Cards an opportunity to clean some things up, but the team just didn't clean much of anything up.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel on them losing out - prior to BC this year's team had beaten teams they should have beaten, lost to Clemson, and then lost somewhat of a toss-up to an up and coming ranked team on the road in a Thursday night game. It's possible injuries, the mental aspect of the game, and other noise could lead to a complete collapse.

I'm really interested to see how the team plays this weekend.

The concern is the trend. The fact that, as you say, they haven't played well dating back to LAST year is what is keeping me from seeing this as an anomaly. This is a two season roll-up now and I can't point to anything positive going into next season. But the team still has games left to play.

 

[Strongtino]

Interesting data Zipp. Thanks for the hard work.

I simply don't like the way the program has performed under Petrino 2.0 and I've said that I don't think its a talent issue. Its a coaching, teaching and overall program culture that seems to have taken over at Louisville. Sloppy, undisciplined, unprepared. UL has put up some great offensive numbers...I mean we won a Heisman, but man, what a disappointing season to have a Heisman winner. 2 blow out losses, nearly lose to bad Virginia and Duke teams and lose at home as a 4TD favorite to a bad/mediocre UK team coached by Mark Stoops who we just provided as his only resume worthy win in 4 years.

 

[Strongtino]

Stoops isn't going to leave. Where would he go? He's being massively overpaid right now and has an ironclad contract with an insane buyout at a basketball first school that he knows will not pony up the cash to buy him out. He's got Marrow doing all the dirty work on the trail and all he has to do is keep UK competitive and get 6-7 wins.

Petrino isn't going anywhere either. He's still sort of tainted and honestly he hasn't done well enough at UL to warrant anyone taking a serious look at him. He's making insane money here and also has a great contract....both coaches will be right back on the sidelines in 2018.

 

[Rollem Cards]

You sure Stupes won't edge Petrino out for that next big opportunity?

Stoops isn't going to leave. Where would he go?

Sarcasm is hard to pick up on message boards.

 

[EasyCard]

He's 30-16 since returning to Louisville. 1-9 against ranked teams with losses to 2015 Houston, Boston College and Kentucky at home and UVA in 2015. Not sure what the spread was in the 2015 Houston game but he was 3+ TD favorites in the BC/UK games. Not only that but the team NEVER looks prepared or disciplined. Stupid penalties and turnovers plagued the team in year 1 and they plague the team in year 4.

Not only has he lost to bad teams but he's also barely sqeeked by a number of bad teams:
- Wake 2014
- UK 2014
- NC State 2015
- BC 2015
- Wake 2015
- UVA 2015

Blown out by UGA and LSU is their last 2 bowls. Not sure he has beaten more than 2-3 "good" teams in his 4 year tenure. TAMU and Notre Dame were both in complete downward spirals when Louisville beat them...I'm not sure what game outside the FSU you can point to and say that was a quality win for him.

He is 12-2 against divisional rivals not named Clemson and FSU. He produced the only heisman winner from a non traditional power the last 30 years. Attendance has been up the last 3 years, expansion is ahead of schedule. Louisville has been ranked in the top 25 for most of his tenure including a # 5 ranking less than a year ago. He has 2 bad losses the last 3 years. Not yet time to panic.

 

[beantowncard]

As further statistical evidence of the validity of net yards...

Regressing RPI and net yards for just the P5 yields the following correlations...

Total Off 0.24
Total Def 0.45
Net Yards 0.62

And looking all the way down the P5 Top 20 on net yards nationally, only four teams are not also in the Top 20 of the AP...Louisville, Ga Tech, and Syracuse, none of which are ranked and interestingly all from the ACC; and Mississippi State is #34 in also receiving votes.

[Could three AP unranked teams from the same conference indicate underlying conference strength?...]

Clearly, net yards is normally a good indicator of a good football team. Petrino needs to find out why we're not at the moment...

Zipp
I have always thought that first downs, or difference in first diwns, is an important stat. Did you happen to look at that?

 

[billoliver40]

Petrino will make his decision based on the last half of the season. Although there are some bad trends the bottom line is wins. There is no one left on the UofL schedule that can't be beaten.
Stoops...he needs two more wins to be cozy. Georgia isn't one. I doubt Mississippi State is one. Louisville is a team that does everything well Kentucky is poor at. So Ol Miss, Tennessee who has lost one in thirty years, or at Vanderbilt.
So Stoops isn't sleeping well yet.