First of all as frustrating as the end of the season was from the Duke game on, I think most will agree the regular season exceeded expectations. Chis Mack was a home run hire.
After the game last night I thought about what it might take to get us to the Sweet 16. Here are my thoughts
1) Good Draw - Looks like we are going to be anywhere from a 6 to 8 seed. As Bilas pointed out last night you want to avoid the 8th or 9th seed because you are probably going to get the 1 seed in round 2. A 6 most likely gets you the 3 seed in round 2. And of course with this team we don't want to draw any team that plays a trapping pressure defense.
2) One of my favorite lines from a movie is "A man's got to know his limitations"(Clint Eastwood - Magnum Force) which I have used in posts more than once. I love it because its so true. What kills us in a lot of games is guys trying to do more than they are capable of doing. We have too many guys that think they can penetrate off the dribble to the basket through traffic.. Other than Cunningham, when most of the the rest of the guys try this it results in the dreaded "live ball turnover" which usually ends up in an easy basket at the other end. The biggest offenders are Nwora, McMahon, Sutton and Perry. The flip side is without dribble penetration its hard to create good shots on offense. The key is not to over penetrate. Pass the ball.
3) Good shot selection. The problem with bad shots is not just that you are probably going to miss it. Its that against good teams it usually creates fast break opportunities off long rebounds and from our guys being out of position to get back and defend. I know McMahon & Nwora are good shooters but these 3s that are 5 or 6 feet behind the 3 point line are not good shots unless your wide open. Pass the ball.
4) Sutton has to find his mojo. When Sutton is on we are a completely different team. He showed some signs the last couple of games of maybe getting there. However he has hoisted multiple 3pt shot air balls several games in a row. Looks like he is pressing, trying to force things. DS, see # 2 above. His diminished play has created additional playing time for VJ King who has contributed nicely. But VJ scares the hell out of me. His offense always looks forced and awkward. And he has no jump shot. Has become a pretty good defender though.
5) Have to get more out of the 2 guard spot. Fore is a great defender but for the last 10 games or so when he has been on the floor we have gotten absolutely no offense out of him. That's why I think we have seen more of Perry lately. In my opinion Perry has the physical tools to be a great player. And though its hard to believe I actually think he has regressed mentally from his freshmen year. I think like Sutton, he is pressing. Perry is a guy that is capable of having a huge impact on a game. He shoots the ball well, can get to the rim, and can shut down an opponent defensively. He needs to relax and let the game come to him. Unfortunately Perry can also torpedo a team by say fouling a guy taking a 3 point shot when your 4 points ahead with seconds remaining in the game.
We are a dangerous team. We are capable of beating almost anyone in the Country. Unfortunately I am not sure we are capable of avoiding the mistakes that have sunk us in many close games this year. I think we win our first game, not sure after that. Another thing that I think will work against us is we have not played well in games that are really physical. And the referees tend to let the NCAA Tournament games get more physical than the regular season games.
After the game last night I thought about what it might take to get us to the Sweet 16. Here are my thoughts
1) Good Draw - Looks like we are going to be anywhere from a 6 to 8 seed. As Bilas pointed out last night you want to avoid the 8th or 9th seed because you are probably going to get the 1 seed in round 2. A 6 most likely gets you the 3 seed in round 2. And of course with this team we don't want to draw any team that plays a trapping pressure defense.
2) One of my favorite lines from a movie is "A man's got to know his limitations"(Clint Eastwood - Magnum Force) which I have used in posts more than once. I love it because its so true. What kills us in a lot of games is guys trying to do more than they are capable of doing. We have too many guys that think they can penetrate off the dribble to the basket through traffic.. Other than Cunningham, when most of the the rest of the guys try this it results in the dreaded "live ball turnover" which usually ends up in an easy basket at the other end. The biggest offenders are Nwora, McMahon, Sutton and Perry. The flip side is without dribble penetration its hard to create good shots on offense. The key is not to over penetrate. Pass the ball.
3) Good shot selection. The problem with bad shots is not just that you are probably going to miss it. Its that against good teams it usually creates fast break opportunities off long rebounds and from our guys being out of position to get back and defend. I know McMahon & Nwora are good shooters but these 3s that are 5 or 6 feet behind the 3 point line are not good shots unless your wide open. Pass the ball.
4) Sutton has to find his mojo. When Sutton is on we are a completely different team. He showed some signs the last couple of games of maybe getting there. However he has hoisted multiple 3pt shot air balls several games in a row. Looks like he is pressing, trying to force things. DS, see # 2 above. His diminished play has created additional playing time for VJ King who has contributed nicely. But VJ scares the hell out of me. His offense always looks forced and awkward. And he has no jump shot. Has become a pretty good defender though.
5) Have to get more out of the 2 guard spot. Fore is a great defender but for the last 10 games or so when he has been on the floor we have gotten absolutely no offense out of him. That's why I think we have seen more of Perry lately. In my opinion Perry has the physical tools to be a great player. And though its hard to believe I actually think he has regressed mentally from his freshmen year. I think like Sutton, he is pressing. Perry is a guy that is capable of having a huge impact on a game. He shoots the ball well, can get to the rim, and can shut down an opponent defensively. He needs to relax and let the game come to him. Unfortunately Perry can also torpedo a team by say fouling a guy taking a 3 point shot when your 4 points ahead with seconds remaining in the game.
We are a dangerous team. We are capable of beating almost anyone in the Country. Unfortunately I am not sure we are capable of avoiding the mistakes that have sunk us in many close games this year. I think we win our first game, not sure after that. Another thing that I think will work against us is we have not played well in games that are really physical. And the referees tend to let the NCAA Tournament games get more physical than the regular season games.
