ACC expert picks 2023: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions
Taking a close, detailed and opinionated look at the ACC ahead of the 2023 college football season
By Chip Patterson
Most overrated team
Florida State: Florida State's national rating is fair; anywhere between Nos. 7 and 12 feels appropriate given the returning production and offseason roster additions. I even agree with the media's preseason order of finish putting the Seminoles at No. 2 behind Clemson. But I believe overrating Florida State is happening with the presumed distance between the Seminoles and the Tigers. The AP Top 25 has Florida State one spot ahead of Clemson, and the betting markets essentially have the two programs listed as co-favorites with the Tigers at +130 and the Seminoles at +140. I think Clemson is the proper favorite, but there's a gap between these two programs that still needs to be closed. Florida State just broke through with a 10-win season but also lost all of its games against ranked opponents. Mike Norvell has built up the most complete roster we've seen in Tallahassee, Florida, in years, but Clemson has been stacking blue-chip-laden recruiting classes for a decade. I'm not ready to put them on the Tigers' tier just yet. -- Chip Patterson
Miami: The Hurricanes' first season under Mario Cristobal was a complete disaster as Miami failed to reach bowl eligibility for the first time since 2007. Still, the preseason ACC poll slotted Miami at fifth; for context, Miami finished fifth in its own division one year ago. Modest improvements are expected in Cristobal's second season, but no magical turnaround is coming. The schedule is even harder in 2023 as a division-less setup means Clemson, Florida State, NC State and No. 21 North Carolina are all on the schedule. Miami doesn't even have the benefit of continuity after both coordinators left the program. Don't be surprised if the Hurricanes are fighting for bowl eligibility at the end of the year. -- Shehan Jeyarajah (Barrett Sallee, Jerry Palm, David Cobb)
North Carolina: North Carolina has some talent, for sure, but the roster is filled with too many holes to confidently say the Tar Heels are one of the ACC's three best teams. With Devontez Walker's eligibility in question, star QB Drake Maye lacks proven weapons (outside the tight end room). Retaining defensive coordinator Gene Chizik after a woeful 2022 was questionable, and the secondary -- which anchored a pass defense that ranked 121st out of 131 FBS schools last season -- lost a ton of proven options and will rely heavily on transfer contributions. -- Will Backus (Tom Fornelli)
Louisville: Jeff Brohm was the perfect choice to succeed the middling Scott Satterfield (26-24 in four seasons). He is a legacy. He can coach. He guided Pur -- friggin' -- due to the Big Ten Championship Game. Louisville isn't competing for the ACC title, though. Not anytime soon. It is a middle-of-the road ACC program that has finished above third place in its division twice since 2014. It certainly is not a national program it was threatening to be 10 years ago. God bless Lamar Jackson and all, but is it fair to say Louisville has slipped? In one sense, that's why Brohm was hired. Cal/Purdue transfer QB Jack Plummer comes in knowing the system. But this is a league that is still ruled by Clemson, with Florida State coming on strong. Louisville is a program that has barely averaged seven wins the last five years. The last coaches to really win big with the Cardinals were Bobby Petrino and Charlie Strong, and that was a while ago. Satterfield didn't leave much talent on the roster and only four starters return on offense. -- Dennis Dodd
Most underrated team
Pitt: Pitt followed up its 2021 conference title by finishing tied for third in terms of ACC record last season. Yet the Panthers tied for sixth in the league's preseason media poll. Perhaps voters forgot that Boston College transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec thrived in offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr.'s system during their time together at BC in 2020 and 2021. Perhaps they also forgot that ninth-year coach Pat Narduzzi always reloads his defensive front seven amid seemingly significant departures. Pitt doesn't play Clemson, Miami or NC State, and it gets Florida State and North Carolina at home. With that schedule, this team has all the makings of a darkhorse league title contender. -- Cobb (Patterson)NC State: Dave Doeren has been at NC State for 10 seasons. He's managed to win at least seven games in eight of them, and one of the two seasons he failed to do so was his first. This program has consistently finished in the top half of the ACC's tougher division, and it has worse odds to win the league than North Carolina, Louisville and Miami? Am I the only one who remembers what happened last time Brennan Armstrong and Robert Anae cooked together? -- Fornelli (Dodd, Jeyarajah)
Louisville: I did a double take when I saw that Louisville was picked eighth in the preseason media poll. It's a complete contradiction from the 8.0 win total listed at Caesars Sportsbook. Oddsmakers are right and voters in the ACC poll are wrong. The switch from Satterfield to Brohm is a massive upgrade, and the addition of Plummer through the portal was a coup for a team that needs a gunslinger under center. He threw 26 touchdowns under Brohm at Purdue (2019-21) before throwing for 3,095 yards and 21 touchdowns last season at Cal. Translation: He is fully comfortable with Brohm's system and incredibly experienced. That, coupled with a new defensive scheme that will rely heavily on an experienced secondary, will lead the Cardinals into ACC contention. -- Patterson (Backus)
ACC predicted order of finish
Louisville's predicted finish:Dennis Dodd - 9th
Tom Fornelli - 7th
Chip Patterson - 3rd
Barrett Sallee - 4th
Shehan Jeyarajah - 6th
Jerry Palm - 6th
David Cobb - 5th
Will Backus - 5th
ACC expert picks 2023: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions
Taking a close, detailed and opinionated look at the ACC ahead of the 2023 college football season
www.cbssports.com
