Exercise Patience for Coach Mack Year One

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

What I know is that Mack earns four times what Padgett made. He'd better prove he's worth that when the first ball is tipped.

I really don't think the question of Adel is that relevant. He certainly would get PT, but he's not putting this team on his shoulders unless Mack is able to bring forth a player that has been nothing more than a promise or hope during his career. And I generally don't count on that from a senior. Untapped potential late in your college career is not anything to bank on.

Adel is no beast but he did fire 15 ppg last year. And what his return would do is provide excellent depth at the wing position.

And he's relevant when you use him in the discussion by saying he's returning and counting him on the roster when most expect him to turn pro. If he's irrelevant don't list him.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Our 2015-16 team that we banned from the postseason... It lost 90% of its scoring from the year before compared to your stats above for next year of 60%. That team lost 65% of its rebounding, compared to 60% for next year. And they lost 85% of their assists compared to 64% for next year. Yet, that team finished with an RPI ranking of 17 and would have been safely in the NCAA with probably no worse than a five seed.
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Sure - the team that got banned brought in 5 new players that were not on the 2014-2015 team. And D. Lee was the most highly sought after 5th year transfer in the country that year. Lewis and Lee both brought in evidence of stats.

Right now we are bringing in 1 new transfer that got no stats at UCONN.

Not sure how you can make this comparison right now.

If this roster gets new blood, then maybe expectations could/should change.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

They got Lee & Lewis, of course, and Onuaku surprised compared to his freshmen season. That's the kind of job Mack needs to pull off. He really hasn't gotten a late start on grad transfers, and there may be an Onuaku on next year's team that no one expects. Just scratching its way into the tourney--the standard I recommended for Mack next year--is less than the 2015-16 team actually accomplished.
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But they also got Mitchell and Spalding as high level recruits - they both played major roles on the 2016-17 team.

Mack doesn't have 2 high level recruits in the fold at this time for next year.

It's just not the same thing at all really.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

It's probably not that hard to find other examples of U of L teams that had major attrition statistically and still made the postseason. If that's the primary basis for your argument, I'll try to find them to show that it's not so extraordinary for a good coach...

If you find examples that fit the criteria, you will more than likely be finding teams that added multiple players that weren't on the prior team, or added a top shelf player that wasn't on the prior team. Just like your example of the D Lee/Lewis/Mitchell/Spalding banned team.

That team also had the services of one of the best coaches ever to coach in college. Same coach also went to the NIT his first year here.


The Cards are adding 1 unheralded player and no FR.

I know this can change, but until it does.....

 

[zipp]

I'm hope he will. Don't forget, Rick Pitino's first year at UofL - he went to the NIT.

Pitino inherited a losing CUSA team with mid-major players. Really no comparison...

 

[zipp]

...Our 2015-16 team that we banned from the postseason... It lost 90% of its scoring from the year before compared to your stats above for next year of 60%. That team lost 65% of its rebounding, compared to 60% for next year...

But they also got Mitchell and Spalding as high level recruits - they both played major roles on the 2016-17 team...

Fine. Throw Mitchell's and Spalding's stats in there... 90% drops to 73% for scoring; 65% drops to 45% for rebounding. 73 vs 60 for scoring; 45 vs 60 for rebounding. About a wash.

...That team also had the services of one of the best coaches ever to coach in college. Same coach also went to the NIT his first year here...

See my last post about the U of L teams that Pitino and Mack each inherited.

And I'm not giving Mack a pass on his coaching ability vs Pitino. Or more properly, I'm not giving U of L/Tyra a pass on that. Tyra chose to make Mack his #1 coaching priority, and U of L athletics is gonna have to live with that, for better or worse. A great AD should have had other hiring options besides Mack, but some of us have already had that debate...

 

[Thecycle27]

News flash Louisville wasn't a good team last year, they went to the NIT and were blown out by 20 points by another bad team. Did you guys actually watch them play? The two best individual performers may not be part of the team.

Now if Mack fails to bring in players to fill the holes, doesn't recruit well in 2019 and goes to the NIT then the conversation can start swinging toward he isn't getting the job done.

Who here thinks based off what we actually saw on the court the following;
Perry is better than Q?
Nwora is better than Deng?
Williams is better than Spalding?
Will VJ King figure out how to play at this level?
Will Thomas ever be able to play at this level?
Will Ryan ever be able to guard a ACC SG?
Will Sutton become a good SG in the ACC?

There is no hell yes answer to any of these questions. They all have their warts. Yes, Mack is paid to turn this group into an NCAA team but I am not going to expect him to be in the NCAA tournament in year one until roster spots are filled and actually see guys improve.

FYI-Pitino is why Louisville is in this spot in the first place seems like we paid too much for him too. Kind of the trend in college basketball coaches are overpaid.

 

[sword9mm]

News flash Louisville wasn't a good team last year, they went to the NIT and were blown out by 20 points by another bad team. Did you guys actually watch them play? The two best individual performers may not be part of the team.

Now if Mack fails to bring in players to fill the holes, doesn't recruit well in 2019 and goes to the NIT then the conversation can start swinging toward he isn't getting the job done.

Who here thinks based off what we actually saw on the court the following;
Perry is better than Q?
Nwora is better than Deng?
Williams is better than Spalding?
Will VJ King figure out how to play at this level?
Will Thomas ever be able to play at this level?
Will Ryan ever be able to guard a ACC SG?
Will Sutton become a good SG in the ACC?

There is no hell yes answer to any of these questions. They all have their warts. Yes, Mack is paid to turn this group into an NCAA team but I am not going to expect him to be in the NCAA tournament in year one until roster spots are filled and actually see guys improve.

FYI-Pitino is why Louisville is in this spot in the first place seems like we paid too much for him too. Kind of the trend in college basketball coaches are overpaid.

16 years. 2 elite 8s, 1 final four. that doesn't sound worth all he was paid imo.

but yeah; we'll see how Mack does. no easy answers and no brad stevens.

 

[BooneCo_Card]

16 years. 2 elite 8s, 1 final four. that doesn't sound worth all he was paid imo.

but yeah; we'll see how Mack does. no easy answers and no brad stevens.

Plus a couple of banners that no longer exist and a host of memories both good and bad.
I've waited to weigh in on this thread b/c we have no idea what's for supper until the cook gets into the kitchen. Too many uncertainties with our roster and everyone else's, a new staff, and playing in the toughest conference in country,
I may be satisfied with another NIT. I just want to see good play on the floor - period. I saw too little of it recently. The rest will take care of itself in years to come imo.

 

[sword9mm]

Plus a couple of banners that no longer exist and a host of memories both good and bad.
I've waited to weigh in on this thread b/c we have no idea what's for supper until the cook gets into the kitchen. Too many uncertainties with our roster and everyone else's, a new staff, and playing in the toughest conference in country,
I may be satisfied with another NIT. I just want to see good play on the floor - period. I saw too little of it recently. The rest will take care of itself in years to come imo.

i know but i'm not counting those years anymore.

we like to give UK fans shit about Calipari's past so i can't be a hypocrite about it.

 

[BooneCo_Card]

i know but i'm not counting those years anymore.

we like to give UK fans shit about Calipari's past so i can't be a hypocrite about it.

I fully understand your take. The teams with Peyton, Russ and Luke were some of my favorite teams and I will not diss them or their accomplishments. I rarely get into it with cayut friends over his past, more about his present inadequacies to which they incariably reply, "But they're so young!"

 

[zipp]

News flash Louisville wasn't a good team last year, they went to the NIT and were blown out by 20 points by another bad team. Did you guys actually watch them play? The two best individual performers may not be part of the team.

Now if Mack fails to bring in players to fill the holes, doesn't recruit well in 2019 and goes to the NIT then the conversation can start swinging toward he isn't getting the job done...

If the roster was that bad, why did Padgett get the boot? Wouldn't a coach who almost took a bad group of players to the NCAA be worth keeping around for $900K per year? IMO, that analysis makes Tyra look worse than even I've been portraying him. And Mack should already be "filling holes"... This is the primary time to be mining for grad transfers which is what turned that 2015/16 team into a winner so quickly.

At the risk of answering for others, I don't think most fans would agree that we have/had a bad roster of players inasmuch as a majority blame Padgett for not taking last year's team further. For those reasons, I also don't think a majority will see missing the NCAA tourney next year as expected.

(For the record, I also referred to making the NCAA field next year as "positive", not expected...)

 

[Knucklehank1]

FWIW...Deng not expected back and staff is moving forward as such

 

[Cardsfan62]

I will be patient and won't set the bar too high. I want to the team to grow their basketball IQ. The adversity they have faced will make them stronger in close games once they feel confident in coach Mack's system.

 

[Guy Gadbois]

No judgement after the first season. But we need to make the final 4 by his 3rd season. no final 4 by season 3 and this poster is going to be grumpy and vocal.

 

[Thecycle27]

If the roster was that bad, why did Padgett get the boot? Wouldn't a coach who almost took a bad group of players to the NCAA be worth keeping around for $900K per year? IMO, that analysis makes Tyra look worse than even I've been portraying him. And Mack should already be "filling holes"... This is the primary time to be mining for grad transfers which is what turned that 2015/16 team into a winner so quickly.

At the risk of answering for others, I don't think most fans would agree that we have/had a bad roster of players inasmuch as a majority blame Padgett for not taking last year's team further. For those reasons, I also don't think a majority will see missing the NCAA tourney next year as expected.

(For the record, I also referred to making the NCAA field next year as "positive", not expected...)

The roster wasn't that bad with Ray and Deng. It wasn't great even with them. They didn't play consistently or good as a unit under Coach Padgett that is why he was let go plus he had no real experience running a program.

Are there grad transfer as good as Ray and Deng? I am not sure what you are seeing, but none of the guys mentioned even come close. Deng is far easier to replace, but still not easy. You keep referring to Lee and Lewis. They were replacing Hancock and Smith, they were actually perfect fits for what was leaving. The remaining roster was good enough to absorb Harrell. There is no Lee (NBA caliber) in the group of transfers imo. There are couple of Lewis type transfers.

I expect him to be a good recruiter, his teams to play hard and incorporate team basketball. If he does those things he will win games maybe not immediately, but in the near future.

 

[zipp]

The roster wasn't that bad with Ray and Deng. It wasn't great even with them. They didn't play consistently or good as a unit under Coach Padgett that is why he was let go plus he had no real experience running a program.

Are there grad transfer as good as Ray and Deng? I am not sure what you are seeing, but none of the guys mentioned even come close. Deng is far easier to replace, but still not easy. You keep referring to Lee and Lewis. They were replacing Hancock and Smith, they were actually perfect fits for what was leaving. The remaining roster was good enough to absorb Harrell. There is no Lee (NBA caliber) in the group of transfers imo. There are couple of Lewis type transfers.

I expect him to be a good recruiter, his teams to play hard and incorporate team basketball. If he does those things he will win games maybe not immediately, but in the near future.

The 2014/15 U of L team lost a lot statistically, which is the basis for hop setting a lower bar next year. Next year's team has needs not unlike that team four years ago, and we had a pretty good year anyway, cut too short by the postseason ban.

Mack is supposedly a big step up from Padgett. He needs to prove that, or fans will already start raising questions...

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Losing a lot is half the story. The other half is at this time not nearly enough was added to offset the lost stats...from an NIT team. My evaluation involves dissecting the roster and expectations based on that roster for next year only.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Fine. Throw Mitchell's and Spalding's stats in there... 90% drops to 73% for scoring; 65% drops to 45% for rebounding. 73 vs 60 for scoring; 45 vs 60 for rebounding. About a wash.

Ok now throw in Lee and Lewis stats then tell me where that leaves us. That's the bottom line for key replacements. Their stats count in the analysis.

 

[Knucklehank1]

FWIW...Deng not expected back and staff is moving forward as such

Deng Adel finally made it official. He has hired an agent and forego his final year in college.

 

[zipp]

Ok now throw in Lee and Lewis stats then tell me where that leaves us. That's the bottom line for key replacements. Their stats count in the analysis.

So Mack isn't accountable for finding his own grad transfers? It's like my original question, does the guy have a bar this year? And remember, I'm just asking...

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

So Mack isn't accountable for finding his own grad transfers? It's like my original question, does the guy have a bar this year? And remember, I'm just asking...

I expect him to follow the silly NCAA rules and not make a fool of himself or the program off the court. And I think he's going to achieve both, though you don't "really know somebody" do you?

Is there a deep grad transfer pool out there unsigned? If there is, who are these guys, I'm open minded I hope he lands a few.

I do admit this thread was too early, the roster is not set.

Pitino was one of the best coaches to ever coach the game and he made the NIT his first year, and he had Reece Gaines for his JR year.

I'm just trying to show support for the coach and provide a level-headed outlook for next season. Just like I did with our last coach.

 

[Knucklehank1]

ACC schedule was released today. We will have at least 9 games against teams ranked in Sporting News early top 25 (ND, VaTech, UNC x 2, either Tenn or KU, 2 x UVA, UK, Duke). If we play both KU and Tenn in preseason NIT we will play 5 of the top 10. Also have games at IU and at Seton Hall plus ACC/Big 10 challenge. I would assume that’ll be against a mid-level team (would they put us against Minnesota?)

 

[nccardfan]

ACC schedule was released today. We will have at least 9 games against teams ranked in Sporting News early top 25 (ND, VaTech, UNC x 2, either Tenn or KU, 2 x UVA, UK, Duke). If we play both KU and Tenn in preseason NIT we will play 5 of the top 10. Also have games at IU and at Seton Hall plus ACC/Big 10 challenge. I would assume that’ll be against a mid-level team (would they put us against Minnesota?)

Doubt it. Most likely schedule us against Michigan so they can get a measure of revenge and subject us to taunts.

 

[Falls City Beer]

I’m more than happy to give Mack plenty of breathing room in his first year. Tough schedule, mediocre pool of grad transfers. I have high expectations, but I’m not a sadist.

 

[zipp]

I’m more than happy to give Mack plenty of breathing room in his first year. Tough schedule, mediocre pool of grad transfers. I have high expectations, but I’m not a sadist.

So what expectation do you consider reasonable? And what will be your attitude if he falls short?...

 

[Falls City Beer]

So what expectation do you consider reasonable? And what will be your attitude if he falls short?...

Most of all, I want to see Mack tap into the skills that guys like VJ King likely possess. And get the team playing with a palpable chip on their shoulder.

 

[gocards1987]

Most of all, I want to see Mack tap into the skills that guys like VJ King likely possess. And get the team playing with a palpable chip on their shoulder.

Tapping into those skills etc. Mean nothing if we can't win games. Guys like King could obviously get better but they had talent and showed it in spurts this year. They just didn't have the coaching to develop it. I have some faith in Mack that he can get them to play up to their potential which should get us a tourney bid atleast with a couple extra parts added.

 

[zipp]

Yeah, Beer that's kind of a fuzzy goal. Can you quantify it a little better?...

 

[Falls City Beer]

Yeah, Beer that's kind of a fuzzy goal. Can you quantify it a little better?...

I don’t want to put a win number on it. I want to see talent playing at a higher level. That’s what good coaching does: it gets players to buy in and execute consistently. If he can consistently do that, the wins will come.

Sorry if that’s fuzzy, but it’s what experience has taught me.

 

[nccardfan]

Most of all, I want to see Mack tap into the skills that guys like VJ King likely possess. And get the team playing with a palpable chip on their shoulder.

You mean like the thugs who used to play for Cincinnati? If that’s what we wanted I think Cronin May have been a better choice.

 

[BooneCo_Card]

Most of all, I want to see Mack tap into the skills that guys like VJ King likely possess. And get the team playing with a palpable chip on their shoulder.

I am with you as far as the palpable chip on their shoulders. Palpable to me is personified by the old McCray led teams and later players like Herb Crook, Alvin Sims, Ellis Myles and Montrezl Harrell. Players who would not stay out of the lane once they got a hard bump and had the attitude, "Start no s__t and there'll be none."

OTOH I do not want any of the gratuitous physicality exhibited by Huggs' old Cincy teams which his protégé Cronin still uses. The ACC is not that kind of league and no need to have a rep for flagrant fouls given current state of official review. Even Huggs has cleaned up his act to a large degree in recent years. His teams still play a physical game but within the lines.

 

[Falls City Beer]

You mean like the thugs who used to play for Cincinnati? If that’s what we wanted I think Cronin May have been a better choice.

Not at all. There are plenty of mentally and physically tough teams that don’t resort to violence or tripping a la Duke.

I got no patience for “aw, shucks” play. This is Louisville. Act like it.

I don’t want head-hunting, but certain coaches and managers can bring out an edge in their players that others can’t. Cal’s teams famously play without said edge. Pitino’s did sometimes, and sometimes not.

 

[WhatMeWorry]

So what expectation do you consider reasonable? And what will be your attitude if he falls short?...

Personally, I'd be happy with 18-19 wins against this schedule. If he falls short of that, I'll wait till '19.

 

[zipp]

I could be wrong--and it doesn't matter whether I am or not. But I think the fanbase in general will be a little restless if Mack doesn't hit 20 wins and an NCAA bid next year.

Almost guarantee you that shouts of "Padgett did that well!" will be heard...

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

I could be wrong--and it doesn't matter whether I am or not. But I think the fanbase in general will be a little restless if Mack doesn't hit 20 wins and an NCAA bid next year...

You could be right. Was the fanbase restless when Pitino made the NIT his first year? Of course all situations aren't exactly alike. I recall being bummed a bit by the NIT his first year, but I seem to recall the team was improving as the season progressed, and I actually felt pretty good about things at that time.

I think there are going to be different opinions, and that's a good thing to keep balance.

My opinion is there isn't any difference making 5th year SR's and barring a really late recruiting steal (not Bowen style!) I just don't see a very good roster in place to make the NCAA's next year. Lost a ton from an NIT team and still only Enoch as a newbie. There are some serious questions in regards to depth, and leaders in key categories.

I like the future of the nucleus, just maybe not the immediate future.

People are forgetting the NCAA turned their nose up at the Cards last year with a bubble like resume, and it's pretty clear UofL will need to maintain a T25 type of team to leave no doubt and force the committee to take them like Auburn and AZ did last year.

That said, I will be hopeful, and the team could really change my mind if certain players make giant strides. And, I haven't seen Enoch - if he is a stud, then that would change things too. Nothing he did at UCONN says stud though.