ESPN says Cards have work to do

[TheRealVille]

I have been saying over and over how there's a bias in the media, so much so some Cards fans here got annoyed at me, while some even defended or denied the obvious bias. Well, here is a ESPN story that implies Louisville has work to do and is essentially on the bubble.

" The Enigma: Louisville. Why don’t the Cardinals boast a better tournament probability in the ESPN Analytics forecast? A big part of it has to do with a gap between Louisville’s perceived quality in BPI (41st) versus other ratings; it ranks 29th in Ken Pomeroy’s system and 30th in Bart Torvik’s, by comparison. This filters into the projected schedule going forward, where Louisville faces both SMU and Pitt one more time apiece, along with games against a number of the nonzero tourney probability teams listed below as well. And the robustness of Louisville’s tournament bid makes a big difference to the ACC bubble as a whole, because it determines where the cut line is to get in (and maybe even whether the conference can exceed five bids).

Locks: Duke (100%)

Should Be In: North Carolina (88%), Clemson (83%), Pitt (70%)

Work to Do: SMU (57%), Louisville (49) "


So there you go. A 7 loss UNC should be in, and Pitt on a 4 game losing streak should be in. Louisville has defeated all four teams that are not locks but they have work to do.

There's no way a true editor would have approved such a ridiculous assertion about ACC teams and the NCAA tournament unless it was on purpose. ESPN went into that piece wanting to downplay Louisville's results.

It was released before the SMU game so one wonders if ESPN now considers Louisville a "should be in" team after throttling the Mustangs on their own court?

There is a bias against Louisville basketball from not all, but many media pundits. Who thinks the Cards will move up much after the SMU win?

What, #23, maybe 22?

Louisville should be around 15 to 17. They have won 9 games in a row, 7 by double figures, and 5 on the road. They just had two players in the same game, set all time single game records in Louisville hoops history.

They're playing like one of the best teams in the country, with a depleted roster due to injuries. I just don't know what else can be said to convince people there's a bias. What else could it be?

 

[CardinalDave]

SEC Network and BIg 10 Network know how to prop up the teams they make money off of. ACC Network appears to be OK if either Duke or UNC is getting lots of media attention and care little about the rest of the league

 

[CARDSAgainstHumanity]

I would agree that we do have work to do. Namely avoid really bad losses since we don’t play many tournament caliber teams in our remaining schedule.

What I vehemently disagree with is those other 3 “should be in” all of which we have superior resumes and defeated head-to-head.

 

[UKCoachesGraveyard]

I have been saying over and over how there's a bias in the media, so much so some Cards fans here got annoyed at me, while some even defended or denied the obvious bias. Well, here is a ESPN story that implies Louisville has work to do and is essentially on the bubble.

" The Enigma: Louisville. Why don’t the Cardinals boast a better tournament probability in the ESPN Analytics forecast? A big part of it has to do with a gap between Louisville’s perceived quality in BPI (41st) versus other ratings; it ranks 29th in Ken Pomeroy’s system and 30th in Bart Torvik’s, by comparison. This filters into the projected schedule going forward, where Louisville faces both SMU and Pitt one more time apiece, along with games against a number of the nonzero tourney probability teams listed below as well. And the robustness of Louisville’s tournament bid makes a big difference to the ACC bubble as a whole, because it determines where the cut line is to get in (and maybe even whether the conference can exceed five bids).

Locks: Duke (100%)

Should Be In: North Carolina (88%), Clemson (83%), Pitt (70%)

Work to Do: SMU (57%), Louisville (49) "


So there you go. A 7 loss UNC should be in, and Pitt on a 4 game losing streak should be in. Louisville has defeated all four teams that are not locks but they have work to do.

There's no way a true editor would have approved such a ridiculous assertion about ACC teams and the NCAA tournament unless it was on purpose. ESPN went into that piece wanting to downplay Louisville's results.

It was released before the SMU game so one wonders if ESPN now considers Louisville a "should be in" team after throttling the Mustangs on their own court?

There is a bias against Louisville basketball from not all, but many media pundits. Who thinks the Cards will move up much after the SMU win?

What, #23, maybe 22?

Louisville should be around 15 to 17. They have won 9 games in a row, 7 by double figures, and 5 on the road. They just had two players in the same game, set all time single game records in Louisville hoops history.

They're playing like one of the best teams in the country, with a depleted roster due to injuries. I just don't know what else can be said to convince people there's a bias. What else could it be?

Bad AI!

 

[PushupMan]

There definitely is a bias, and it’s that their computer model for us is wrong. During our 9 game winning streak, it had us going 4-5 (losses at FSU, Clemson, UNC, @Pitt and @SMU).

One of our biggest changes during this streak is our 3pt pct has improved dramatically. During the last nine games, we are 92-265 (36.6%). That percentage for the whole year would put us in the top 55, but prior to the 9 game winning streak we shot just 100-367 (27.2%), a percentage that would rank us 354th (and second to last) in the country.

With the tremendously high volume of threes we shoot, their model clearly still underestimates us, and will probably continue to do so for the rest of the year.

 

[CardHack]

There definitely is a bias, and it’s that their computer model for us is wrong. During our 9 game winning streak, it had us going 4-5 (losses at FSU, Clemson, UNC, @Pitt and @SMU).

One of our biggest changes during this streak is our 3pt pct has improved dramatically. During the last nine games, we are 92-265 (36.6%). That percentage for the whole year would put us in the top 55, but prior to the 9 game winning streak we shot just 100-367 (27.2%), a percentage that would rank us 354th (and second to last) in the country.

With the tremendously high volume of threes we shoot, their model clearly still underestimates us, and will probably continue to do so for the rest of the year.

I'm not as good with the metrics end of the current era of college basketball, but have a number of thoughts on this as you do.
I think what you are seeing in this win streak is a collective team growth in execution that is being displayed statistically; your eyes don't deceive you into believing they are just hitting a bunch of Hail Mary shots with the shotclock waning. The cutting, the screening action and the sheer ability to hit the open man is in full effect. They keep working this cross court pass to a wide open Reyne Smith where the weakside defender responsible for him is backscreened and it's an absolute masterpiece to watch. There isn't a team we play for the rest of the season that doesn't have Bullet point 1 as anything other than Don't lose Number 6.

Shooting percentage is a byproduct of not only the people taking the shots, but the quality of shot they are taking. We're getting high volumes of open shots within the designed construct of the offense, and it's leading to a clear increase in shooting percentage both from the perimeter and points in the paint. Those points in the paint rarely come from the traditional postup unless it is Jvonne backing somebody down which he has a unique skill set. What I find to be sort of jaw dropping is we had 9 three pointers from shooters OTHER than Reyne Smith the other night, and it still coincided with a 2-14 night from our highest volume shooter in Terrence Edwards who has been in something of a slump relative to everyone else during this streak. So while looking like they are firing on all cylinders, there is still alot of ceiling to be reached from Edwards, Traore and Khani Rooths who is starting to emerge a little with the availability of Waterman's minutes.

 

[Guardman]

The game is not the same game. Denny Crum would turn over. This is not basketball the way the Cards won it in several seasons. This is entertainment basketball. Played to the masses. Points. Controversy. The glass needn't exist.

 

[nccardfan]

I think most media pundits don't actually watch the Cards play. Just go to the Game Notes and you'll see some eye popping numbers which make yoiu scratch your head and say this can't be right. Here are some examples:

Assist/Turnover Ratio - #160
Assists - #200
fast break points - #331
field goal % - #247
3 pt % - #317
turnovers - #112
3 pt % defense - #275
scoring defense - #117
steals per game - #176

Those are just a few, a lot more that are similar. One of the best numbers I saw was winning percentage and we are listed as #53.

You see these numbers and you ask yourself, how are they winning? I personally don't care, just glad they are and as the saying goes, don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

 

[Rollem Cards]

Of course we have “work” to do.

We have to keep winning. By whatever means. Shooting, defense, free throws. Whatever it takes is “work”.

Therefore, if we quit ”working”we won’t win.

Or make the tourney.

I like our chances. Today

 

[ulcards1]

The BPI seems to not take into account the results of games.

 

[KozmasAgain]

I read an article on the Duke site that sad Duke won’t be the big ACC story this year. They said Louisville will be the biggest ACC story this year.

 

[nccardfan]

The BPI seems to not take into account the results of games.

Our BPI ranking is #36.
BPI stands for Basketball Power Index, a statistical measurement of how strong a college basketball team is. It's used to predict how well a team will perform.

How is BPI calculated?

• BPI is calculated by subtracting the team's defense rating (BPI Defense) from its offense rating (BPI Offense)
• The difference between the team's rating and the average rating is used to determine the team's BPI

What does BPI include?

• • BPI includes factors like:
    • • Winning percentage
      • Strength of schedule
      • Margin of victory
      • Diminishing returns to blowouts