In my tradition in games like this, I voiced some skepticism on our chances Saturday. My primary reason is and remains our corners vs. their receiving corps--even with Alexander we have a corner that was pilloried last season in Washington. Walker was exploited by Kentucky and somewhat by LSU. It is something that ended up being the late difference in consecutive years against Clemson. We have under Petrino never solved tempo changes and while we struggled mightily and very famously against UGA in the Belk Bowl in 2014, gave up a TD that beat us in 2015 to Renfrow on a gadget and last year at Clemson for the winning score...we struggled with it against Purdue and UNC as well with a different coordinator and largely different support staff. What we gave up we gave up in just that fashion. While Washington was there a couple times...he didn't make the play. While Khane Pass was there on one such instance...he didn't make the play. He got beaten on a double move Saturday in Chapel Hill. Either way, they were beaten. There is no getting away with a lack of eye discipline against Clemson.
But there are causes to be optimistic about Saturday night:
1. Bryant looks tough, but that comes with a bullet. Clemson looks like their running game IS Bryant which would be a welcome relief given how Wayne Galliman factored in our three matchups with Clemson. The first two times Galliman shortened the game and allowed Clemson's defense to churn us down. How much of that was Auburn, how much of that was Clemson...how much was by design and how much was out of necessity? Either way we should find out Saturday. A one dimensional attack is obviously easier to defend and Clemson was never scared to use Watson actively in the running game which they didn't feature last year UNTIL they played us (knowing we would be keying on Galliman). They use their QB in the running game in much the same way we use our tight ends coming across the formation to block for Jackson...to outnumber the box with blockers or to outflank the edge. We have to see significantly more out of Drew Bailey than we've seen in the first two games as he's been very quiet. I think we're going to see more of GG Robinson and even Famurewa over Richardson, sacrificing size for quickness. One guy that stuck out to me as being VERY active at Clemson last year and will be relied on to be the same Saturday is James Hearns. What little pressure we applied last year was applied by him; the strip of Watson was caused by great hustle and technique by Hearns.
2. ...and this bleeds into something that could be listed as an intangible but in fact can be very tangible to those reading this post...you the guy in the stadium can have an impact. As Petrino pointed out in his press conference, there's a reason why Louisville has gotten so many sacks on third down from our defensive ends: 1. those defensive ends when named Dumervil or Dewayne White, Michael Josiah or Marcus Smith or Lorenzo Mauldin have the distinction of being pretty good; give them that ability coupled with crowd noise that pacifies a LT or turns his attention inward to hear the snap count and it's another plus to the DE. We got big yields from Fields and Hearns--and Greenard--against Florida State last year; and you can lay some credit to crowd noise I suspect in part. I can't imagine the crowd noise will be any duller Saturday night because it goes against form. Night time crowds over the years have UNQUESTIONABLY been loudest whether it was a Thursday or a Friday night with so many high water examples, the Blackout in 2006 for me being the loudest. I will generally deride our fans a little bit for thinking the tailgate scene is some otherwordly event at Louisville because I think people confuse the power toss of downing a halfcase of beer in three hours as creative tailgating. But at night in this town? Even a half loaded crowd is a loud one. Clemson will have not experienced crowd noise this year and while I don't want to get into their inevitable collective freakout about how loud it is in Death Valley (uh, I get it. It's loud alright and the source of noise is immaterial)...they will have to adjust. That gives James Hearns, Greenard and Young just a little bit better get off.
...and in that light...it's really not in Bobby Petrino's DNA, but if I were him I'd do my best John Calipari impersonation and spend every minute in front of a mic dropping innuendo, whining, pissing and moaning or die trying about the amount of contact Clemson gets away with on passing routes and how that impacted us in the first half last year. There's no getting around the fact we got that call in the second half last year and didn't in the first half (though fatefully not on Cole Hikutini or Brandon Radcliff on the last drive where we should have been setup first and goal inside the last thirty seconds). Watch that video making the rounds on Clemson sites about the breakdown of each of their 11 sacks against Auburn and you see some REALLY handsy work on receivers. If it isn't brought to the immediate attention of the officiating crew Saturday night then I'll be honest...that's a failure of the 50,000 full throated supporters wearing black. When you watch a basketball game in the YUM Center or Rupp Arena how often does a player drag his pivot foot and get away with it to be greeted by 22,000 voices simultaneously screaming "Walk!!!" at the top of it's collective lungs? If we don't have 50,000 collectively yelling "Hold!!!" or "Flag!!!" wildly gesticulating like we're a European soccer player taking a dive in the box when lassoed off of a break by a receiver on his post break...the failure is on us. I'll bastardize a quote by George Costa...it's not a lie if you believe it's true. It's up to the ref to get the call right.
Make a difference.
3. Our receivers against their secondary. While blocking is an obvious concern going into Saturday night, if it holds up there will be opportunities for big plays. Petrino and the offensive staff found something that worked at the half last year against Clemson which is important because in the two previous trials of Louisville vs. Brent Venables there weren't consecutive scoring drives at any point in five halves of football. They not only turned us over in 2014, they did it for scores. It didn't matter that our defense dominated in kind, Clemson overcame the one early mistake to allow us to setup shop on a short field in the first half; we were sacked and fumbled in the end zone. We gave up a punt return for a touchdown. We didn't make the big play to win the game. We have the receiving corps and I think the right kind of attack to attack Clemson at it's most vulnerable, and that's the point before their considerable pressure can get to us. Clemson is going to take the same tact that LSU, Marshall and Houston did...they are going to put more people in the box than we can conceivably block; we have to hit them hard on first down and it's going to have to be done I suspect as last year--outside the hashes. I think we're going to be doing something a little unconventional but we've seen it in stints and that's go empty set multi-receiver. We're looking for that slot isolation on a linebacker that Clemson will give you; we have to force that by personnel and formation to capitalize. Our routes all season have seemed well-conoittered to hitting Clemson; but you can bet your last penny that Clemson will adjust in kind and Lamar has to have great eye discipline because at some point they will blindly drop a backside lineman into that short crossing zone where we're getting so much productivity with Jaylen Smith.
If you were to ask me what player is really going to be a bellweather player for Louisville moving the football Saturday night I'd say Fitzpatrick; I'd also add Standberry because he is the most capable of capitalizing on being iso'd on a linebacker from among our tight ends and rare is the game that Petrino doesn't get a big chunk play out of the tight end position. The one big game I can remember in his entire time at Louisville where the tight end didn't factor greatly was the Blackout in 2006 and last year against Florida State.
4. That Play. That play is the one you remember as long as you go into PJCS. For me That Play was a touchdown pass from Dave Ragone to Joshua Tinch to knot that 2002 game against Florida State to send the game eventually into overtime. I wasn't sure it was possible until that point. To that point in the young history of PJCS That Play was Mills Kills by Southern Miss or Tim Couch smothering PJCS with melted cheese in the form of severe dehydration and Craig Yeast. The Mario Urrutia touchdown against Miami; for me in that same game a series of plays...a Jon Russell blitz and forced turnover and on the next play from scrimmage which was Hunter Cantwell's first play of the day he hit Harry Douglass with a surface to air missile to setup what would prove to be the clinching score and a loud buzz throughout the stadium for the rest of that hot day. The Michael Bush touchdown run against Kentucky the same year. The series of events in the Blackout of a MONSTER hit by Nate Harris on Owen Schmidt in front of the Crunch Zone and the ensuing punt return for touchdown soon after...and the scoop and score by Malik Jackson after that. Devante Parker's stirring catch-and-run across the field for the last minute go ahead score against UC in a Whiteout. The touchdown pass from Kyle Bolen to Devante Parker to awaken PJCS and start a comeback in 2014 against Kentucky. Jaire Alexander's erasing any doubt remaining early in the second half of the FSU game last year...and Lamar putting it on wax with his 47 yard spinning lightning bolt.
When you go into the stadium every time Lamar Jackson is donning our jersey you know That Play is right around the corner. If it's provided by someone else...all the better.
But there are causes to be optimistic about Saturday night:
1. Bryant looks tough, but that comes with a bullet. Clemson looks like their running game IS Bryant which would be a welcome relief given how Wayne Galliman factored in our three matchups with Clemson. The first two times Galliman shortened the game and allowed Clemson's defense to churn us down. How much of that was Auburn, how much of that was Clemson...how much was by design and how much was out of necessity? Either way we should find out Saturday. A one dimensional attack is obviously easier to defend and Clemson was never scared to use Watson actively in the running game which they didn't feature last year UNTIL they played us (knowing we would be keying on Galliman). They use their QB in the running game in much the same way we use our tight ends coming across the formation to block for Jackson...to outnumber the box with blockers or to outflank the edge. We have to see significantly more out of Drew Bailey than we've seen in the first two games as he's been very quiet. I think we're going to see more of GG Robinson and even Famurewa over Richardson, sacrificing size for quickness. One guy that stuck out to me as being VERY active at Clemson last year and will be relied on to be the same Saturday is James Hearns. What little pressure we applied last year was applied by him; the strip of Watson was caused by great hustle and technique by Hearns.
2. ...and this bleeds into something that could be listed as an intangible but in fact can be very tangible to those reading this post...you the guy in the stadium can have an impact. As Petrino pointed out in his press conference, there's a reason why Louisville has gotten so many sacks on third down from our defensive ends: 1. those defensive ends when named Dumervil or Dewayne White, Michael Josiah or Marcus Smith or Lorenzo Mauldin have the distinction of being pretty good; give them that ability coupled with crowd noise that pacifies a LT or turns his attention inward to hear the snap count and it's another plus to the DE. We got big yields from Fields and Hearns--and Greenard--against Florida State last year; and you can lay some credit to crowd noise I suspect in part. I can't imagine the crowd noise will be any duller Saturday night because it goes against form. Night time crowds over the years have UNQUESTIONABLY been loudest whether it was a Thursday or a Friday night with so many high water examples, the Blackout in 2006 for me being the loudest. I will generally deride our fans a little bit for thinking the tailgate scene is some otherwordly event at Louisville because I think people confuse the power toss of downing a halfcase of beer in three hours as creative tailgating. But at night in this town? Even a half loaded crowd is a loud one. Clemson will have not experienced crowd noise this year and while I don't want to get into their inevitable collective freakout about how loud it is in Death Valley (uh, I get it. It's loud alright and the source of noise is immaterial)...they will have to adjust. That gives James Hearns, Greenard and Young just a little bit better get off.
...and in that light...it's really not in Bobby Petrino's DNA, but if I were him I'd do my best John Calipari impersonation and spend every minute in front of a mic dropping innuendo, whining, pissing and moaning or die trying about the amount of contact Clemson gets away with on passing routes and how that impacted us in the first half last year. There's no getting around the fact we got that call in the second half last year and didn't in the first half (though fatefully not on Cole Hikutini or Brandon Radcliff on the last drive where we should have been setup first and goal inside the last thirty seconds). Watch that video making the rounds on Clemson sites about the breakdown of each of their 11 sacks against Auburn and you see some REALLY handsy work on receivers. If it isn't brought to the immediate attention of the officiating crew Saturday night then I'll be honest...that's a failure of the 50,000 full throated supporters wearing black. When you watch a basketball game in the YUM Center or Rupp Arena how often does a player drag his pivot foot and get away with it to be greeted by 22,000 voices simultaneously screaming "Walk!!!" at the top of it's collective lungs? If we don't have 50,000 collectively yelling "Hold!!!" or "Flag!!!" wildly gesticulating like we're a European soccer player taking a dive in the box when lassoed off of a break by a receiver on his post break...the failure is on us. I'll bastardize a quote by George Costa...it's not a lie if you believe it's true. It's up to the ref to get the call right.
Make a difference.
3. Our receivers against their secondary. While blocking is an obvious concern going into Saturday night, if it holds up there will be opportunities for big plays. Petrino and the offensive staff found something that worked at the half last year against Clemson which is important because in the two previous trials of Louisville vs. Brent Venables there weren't consecutive scoring drives at any point in five halves of football. They not only turned us over in 2014, they did it for scores. It didn't matter that our defense dominated in kind, Clemson overcame the one early mistake to allow us to setup shop on a short field in the first half; we were sacked and fumbled in the end zone. We gave up a punt return for a touchdown. We didn't make the big play to win the game. We have the receiving corps and I think the right kind of attack to attack Clemson at it's most vulnerable, and that's the point before their considerable pressure can get to us. Clemson is going to take the same tact that LSU, Marshall and Houston did...they are going to put more people in the box than we can conceivably block; we have to hit them hard on first down and it's going to have to be done I suspect as last year--outside the hashes. I think we're going to be doing something a little unconventional but we've seen it in stints and that's go empty set multi-receiver. We're looking for that slot isolation on a linebacker that Clemson will give you; we have to force that by personnel and formation to capitalize. Our routes all season have seemed well-conoittered to hitting Clemson; but you can bet your last penny that Clemson will adjust in kind and Lamar has to have great eye discipline because at some point they will blindly drop a backside lineman into that short crossing zone where we're getting so much productivity with Jaylen Smith.
If you were to ask me what player is really going to be a bellweather player for Louisville moving the football Saturday night I'd say Fitzpatrick; I'd also add Standberry because he is the most capable of capitalizing on being iso'd on a linebacker from among our tight ends and rare is the game that Petrino doesn't get a big chunk play out of the tight end position. The one big game I can remember in his entire time at Louisville where the tight end didn't factor greatly was the Blackout in 2006 and last year against Florida State.
4. That Play. That play is the one you remember as long as you go into PJCS. For me That Play was a touchdown pass from Dave Ragone to Joshua Tinch to knot that 2002 game against Florida State to send the game eventually into overtime. I wasn't sure it was possible until that point. To that point in the young history of PJCS That Play was Mills Kills by Southern Miss or Tim Couch smothering PJCS with melted cheese in the form of severe dehydration and Craig Yeast. The Mario Urrutia touchdown against Miami; for me in that same game a series of plays...a Jon Russell blitz and forced turnover and on the next play from scrimmage which was Hunter Cantwell's first play of the day he hit Harry Douglass with a surface to air missile to setup what would prove to be the clinching score and a loud buzz throughout the stadium for the rest of that hot day. The Michael Bush touchdown run against Kentucky the same year. The series of events in the Blackout of a MONSTER hit by Nate Harris on Owen Schmidt in front of the Crunch Zone and the ensuing punt return for touchdown soon after...and the scoop and score by Malik Jackson after that. Devante Parker's stirring catch-and-run across the field for the last minute go ahead score against UC in a Whiteout. The touchdown pass from Kyle Bolen to Devante Parker to awaken PJCS and start a comeback in 2014 against Kentucky. Jaire Alexander's erasing any doubt remaining early in the second half of the FSU game last year...and Lamar putting it on wax with his 47 yard spinning lightning bolt.
When you go into the stadium every time Lamar Jackson is donning our jersey you know That Play is right around the corner. If it's provided by someone else...all the better.
