Cards Projected 12 Wins
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i believe i predicted our football wins total last year so i'm going out on a limb and predicting 20-10, maybe 19-11, but defintiely 18-12, could be 17-13 though, but i'll stick with 16-14, although 15-15 sounds about right.
12-18 and we cancel the last game of the regular season. Sounds about right.
None of us know how this team will fare. Just too many unknowns. Will Clark be a massive improvement at PG? Will the transfers make a big difference with hoops IQ?
This time last year no one foresaw the worst case scenario would mean just 4 wins. The enormity of that much failure still is hard to believe today.
12 wins would be a 8 win improvement which normally would be great progress, but for me it's more about being competitive and not looking like a group of guys playing pickup games.
And that's squarely on KP.
This time last year no one foresaw the worst case scenario would mean just 4 wins. The enormity of that much failure still is hard to believe today.
12 wins would be a 8 win improvement which normally would be great progress, but for me it's more about being competitive and not looking like a group of guys playing pickup games.
And that's squarely on KP.
People knew going into last season that the team was going to be really bad. The only surprising thing about last season was just how bad the team and coaches both looked.
Last season wasn't a bad season. It was arguably the worst season by a major P5 school in modern basketball history. You're right, we have no idea how this team will fare. But I have a very difficult time believing that a season as bad as the one we just witnessed was purely the fault of the players. KPs issues are partly incompetence on his part, partly his bad staff and partly because of the way in which he's determined to play and build his teams. We can take an educated guess as to how this upcoming season will turn out.
The same issues that plagued last years roster are back and all we've done is changed the pieces.
- No depth
- No guards
The 2 major issues of last year will be issues once again.
- Ball handling/turnovers
- Shooting
Defense and attitude should be better but we have no reason to think these coaches are competent.
I’ve heard too much bad sh!t from people I trust to have any notion that this season isn’t another disaster. We did upgrade our talent so based on that alone I think you can get to 10-12 wins. But sadly I think things have already started to unravel (Flowers, Ty-Laur, Nolan Smith job search) and that will only continue throughout the season. I truly hope I’m wrong.
I agree with this.
And I understand giving Payne this season to prove himself with no NCAA cloud etc. But he really did have arguably the worst P5 season in modern basketball history last year. That is impossible to just overlook and chalk it totally up to bad players and their attitudes.
Now if Payne has a great season with a team that is firing on all cylinders, gives all out effort, and makes the NCAA Tournament, I'll gladly admit I was wrong.
I'll say this....if Kenny Payne gets this team to the NCAA tournament it will be one of the more shocking and inexplicable outcomes in recent memory and will make the events of last season even more confusing. I don't see any logical scenario where the fan base is happy to have Kenny Payne back for a 3rd year.
There's absolutely no excitement within the fan base right now. Red/White tickets have been on sale for over a week now and the last time I checked Ticketmaster they had sold maybe 30% of the seats. Its a $10 ticket to an event that kicks off the season and its 2 weeks away and nobody cares. In order for Payne to win the fanbase back he has to win big this year. He has no personality, he's done nothing to win over the fanbase in the media so the opinion of him from the fans will come entirely from wins and losses. Payne has to either inspire fans to believe in him - ain't happening....or win big. Winning big doesn't seem likely and going 14-17 isn't going to excite anyone to jump on board.
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We are beating out Directional schools for recruits….future looks bright!
I think this is an obvious part of why Payne has never been a head coach. He clearly knew himself well enough to know his limits since we didn't hear much about teams pursuing him or him pursuing head coaching jobs. In media appearances (most of the time) he comes off as likable and nice but a little clueless with absolutely ZERO charisma, energy, or that aura you get from say a Jeff Brohm, Pitino, Muss, Pearl, etc. I would absolutely love to hear Kenny Payne talk to this team pre-game or at half time.
Simply put, you can't have the personality of a wet sponge and then also make ALL the mistakes he's made over the last year and half and just expect fans to support you.
I think you have nailed it exactly here. We all witnessed the apparent lack of basketball acumen last year, but in the age of “roll it out and let them play” maybe it could still work. It’s the absolute absence of anything that could be construed as charisma that will doom this coach first.
We as fans will get behind an unsuccessful coach if he inspires us to believe in him and he's clearly trying, building and promoting himself and the program. Fans would have rallied behind Brohm regardless of his record this year.
Look at Charlie Strong - he has no personality, much like Payne. But he had Vance Bedford, he had Clint Hurt...he had these coaches who would speak to the media and amp you up about the program. Strong would speak to the media and although he wasn't charismatic, he was knowledgeable and stern. He would talk in specifics about what he was doing, what they wanted. He had this aura of a stern, disciplinarian, perfectionist that while it may not be fun - it would get results and you'd love him for it in the end.
Kenny speaks to the media and when they ask him what went wrong he starts talking about culture, what Chris Mack did wrong, and how he can make the players love each other more. He doesn't talk about why he only has one PG, or why he played Curry 28 mins despite him looking ass the entire time or why he was a guard with 4 forwards, or what they tried to do differently to counter the zone.
at least the Yum's floor has been changed. we finally got rid of that giant midcourt black Cardinal.
i am still hoping to see fans closer to the floor like the Lakers or Dukes arena or even like old Freedom Hall.
i am still hoping to see fans closer to the floor like the Lakers or Dukes arena or even like old Freedom Hall.
I, personally, have NEVER been less enthused about UL MBB than now. My biggest fear is we exceed expectations and win 13-15 games and the KP Mafia touts the “huge improvement “ then demands KP gets an extension and a raise.
Yeah 14 or 15 wins is exactly what we don't want to see happen. We need to be terrible or win 20 games. I really think ticket sales could impact the decision if it does end up being a 14 or 15 win season. I checked ticketmaster just now and probably 75% of the red/white scrimmage tickets are still available and its next weekend. So you don't seem to be alone not being excited about basketball this year. I haven't spoken to a single person face to face who's excited or believes in Kenny Payne.
It's normal to judge the results with wins and losses but Louisville was so horrible last season, there needs to be vast improvement in just basic fundamentals and sound basketball decisions.
So if the Cards win only 15 games but are in several close games they lost and pulled off a few upsets, that would go a long way to show the debacle from last season was a outlier. That KP despite being inexperienced, isn't some doofus over his head.
None of us should expect 20 wins and a NCAA tournament berth this season. If that happens then that's great, but for me, I'm looking for a team that appears to understand what playing basketball competitively looks like.
So if the Cards win only 15 games but are in several close games they lost and pulled off a few upsets, that would go a long way to show the debacle from last season was a outlier. That KP despite being inexperienced, isn't some doofus over his head.
None of us should expect 20 wins and a NCAA tournament berth this season. If that happens then that's great, but for me, I'm looking for a team that appears to understand what playing basketball competitively looks like.
I'm sorry to say, I think they will find a way to give Kenny a 3rd year regardless of the W-L record. So I hope it's a 20+ win season.
I agree with the part of how the team looks. If they actually show they know basic fundamentals and actually run some plays and give max effort every game it'll be a big improvement.
However I disagree that UofL fans shouldn't expect to make the NCAA Tournament. That's always the expectation at Louisville basketball. When you start to lower the standards and are okay with that, is how UofL basketball slowly dies for good. And unfortunately we're on that path right now unless there is an abrupt turnaround very soon.
There's a laundry list of complaints you can make about Kenny Payne during his short time here but one of the most glaring and most damaging is his attitude and perception that the rules don't apply to him. As if vastly inferior programs haven't made swift and successful turnarounds in a single off season. As if Louisville's basketballs' historical standards don't apply to him. As if he's not subject to the same expectations as every other coach in the country and those coaches aren't at blue blood programs.
His indifference to results, unwillingness to place expectations and general attitude that he has as much time as he wants to do whatever he wants has been INFURIATING.
You don't get to lower the bar for your second season just because failed so badly in your first one. This is Louisville basketball. For a second year coach to only win 14 or 15 games is absolutely unacceptable regardless of what year 1 look liked. He's had a full year to coach and recruit and if the best that he can do is a roster that wins 15 games then he's not the man for the job. Plain and simple.
I agree and think that some fans look at how atrocious that first season was that they automatically lowered expectations significantly for season two which is a recipe for disaster.
Sure 12-15 wins is three times more wins than last year but it's still god awful and unacceptable. Not to mention the fan support and any buzz around the program is at an all time low as well.
Totally agree and we are not too far removed from being really pissed off any time we didnt, at least, make the 2nd weekend of the tourney. Honestly, that doesn't appear to be anywhere on the radar for the next few years. So sad!!!
UL had one of the largest urban followings in all of College basketball; a city population that adopted the Cards as the #1 source of support upon Wes Unseld’s arrival in the mid 60s. It had already established a strong tradition, but once the local HS stars stayed home, it took off to another level.
Reading the responses to this OP, it’s hard now to believe this storied program could fall to such a low point. I know there are a whole lot of folks like myself that grew up with Cardinal basketball, and went through the challenging times until Denny arrived, and drove this program to some of the best moments any school could experience between the Denny and Pitino periods.
I question whether we can turn this around, given the environment we have with Payne as HC, and the difficulty making any change. If it were just losing games, that would be problem enough, but losing fan support and home attendance could result in a very long and difficult path to overcome.
Reading the responses to this OP, it’s hard now to believe this storied program could fall to such a low point. I know there are a whole lot of folks like myself that grew up with Cardinal basketball, and went through the challenging times until Denny arrived, and drove this program to some of the best moments any school could experience between the Denny and Pitino periods.
I question whether we can turn this around, given the environment we have with Payne as HC, and the difficulty making any change. If it were just losing games, that would be problem enough, but losing fan support and home attendance could result in a very long and difficult path to overcome.
Naw, in this world we live in today and I will be the first one to say how fair weather some (not all) of our fans are, winning solves most of the problems/issues. I still struggle with our fans leaving in the 3rd quarter of a football game (winning or losing) or leaving a basketball game with 10 minutes or more to go (again winning or losing). And its not about traffic or getting home late. I found that I can stay to the end of games and still get home about the same time as if I left with 10 minutes left to go in a game. I have come to realize it is what it is but it doesn't affect my love for U of L sports.
Have you guys actually looked at our schedule for the upcoming season ? It has to be the weakest schedule I've ever seen for UofL basketball. That being said, I doubt we can get to 12 wins unless the team somehow overcomes KP's lack of coaching skills with extra effort.. That kind of effort usually takes motivation and KP has the motivation skills of Eeyore.. So disappointing to be entering the season with no hope.!
Until this team proves they are vastly improved from last year, none of the Cards opponents are necessarily "weak" as bad as that sounds.
The difference between football and basketball at UL could not be more stark! One program is hitting new heights under an explayer who has engaged this fan base and breathed so much new energy into his program. The other ex-player coach moves in shadows, keeps silent about every program/player issue and shuns the fan base like they had the plague.
I know where I’ll be spending my fan dollars and my support this season.
I know where I’ll be spending my fan dollars and my support this season.
little information for the Red/White game or exhibition games. no player profiles. no streaming info.
i guess the school isn't interested in selling basketball tickets for the season?
i guess the school isn't interested in selling basketball tickets for the season?
There's no way to avoid fan apathy right now.
The only way I could see this thing turning is if Clark and White are big time. They are going to need Clark to look like the guy that was borderline 5* and White to just be a beast. These things actually could happen. I don't know enough about either to predict it. It just seems unlikely the holdovers are going to put this program back on the right path without those two guys leading them.
Can Clark lead and inspire? Can White lead by example? To me those are the two things I'll be looking for early in the season. I'm really not trying to put it all on their shoulders. Maybe James can take a step forward too. I'm not saying these other guys suck, there is talent to tap into. But having strong guard play is a must in this era.
We're going to know pretty early on I think.
The only way I could see this thing turning is if Clark and White are big time. They are going to need Clark to look like the guy that was borderline 5* and White to just be a beast. These things actually could happen. I don't know enough about either to predict it. It just seems unlikely the holdovers are going to put this program back on the right path without those two guys leading them.
Can Clark lead and inspire? Can White lead by example? To me those are the two things I'll be looking for early in the season. I'm really not trying to put it all on their shoulders. Maybe James can take a step forward too. I'm not saying these other guys suck, there is talent to tap into. But having strong guard play is a must in this era.
We're going to know pretty early on I think.
I agree that Clark is one to keep your eyes on. He is a really good player. Hoping that he is focused and able to lead this team. I think he will. I will also be keeping an eye on James and JJ early as well. JJ was coming on late last season and James had some good moments.
The schedule - especially the non- conference looks very thin. There are enough pieces and a favorable schedule that “should” lead to some wins. 12 to 18 wins is the range for me. Should be really close to 18 with hopefully a tournament berth.
We will most definitely know and learn a lot fairly quickly. If this team struggles to get 12 wins this season, there is truly no hope under KP. Just absolutely cannot have a repeat of last season.
The schedule - especially the non- conference looks very thin. There are enough pieces and a favorable schedule that “should” lead to some wins. 12 to 18 wins is the range for me. Should be really close to 18 with hopefully a tournament berth.
We will most definitely know and learn a lot fairly quickly. If this team struggles to get 12 wins this season, there is truly no hope under KP. Just absolutely cannot have a repeat of last season.
Josh Heird: Louisville men's basketball headed in direction we want it to go
UofL Director of Athletics Josh Heird spoke at the men's basketball tipoff luncheon on Monday afternoon
247sports.com
As to Josh's comments, I think we all get that the team isn't going to be 31-0. We've yet to see a perfect record and almost certainly never will. What's that got to do with the price of eggs. My question is this, if Kenny is doing it the right way, what exactly is that? When will we see evidence? I'm more convinced than ever that Kenny gets year three regardless of what happens this year. All of the fluff talk about "building it the right way" is just fodder to justify it.
After watching the first exhibition game 3 times this team should win 12 games without a coach. We have shooters, we have guys who can drive, and we have an inside presence. What I didn't see were any plays to get a particular player the ball in a spot to score. Didn't see any screens to free up a player to score. With a good coach this team should make the tournament. With a great coach I see elite 8 with a bunch of freshman and sophomores. See neither with the offense I saw so far.
I think we can get to 20 wins this year. I like the roster improvements, we are upgraded at every position. We will know very quickly how good we are, in December.
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