Cards Defense - No Depth

[Knucklehank1]

Very good article by Keith Wynne regarding the depth issues on defense. This goes to the heart of the issues this year which were created by a total absence of recruiting defense, especially defensive linemen.

https://www.cardchronicle.com/2019/12/24/20994377/the-consequences-of-recruiting

 

[PushupMan]

I liked the article ... always love reading the stuff they have over at cardchronicle. Keith does a really good job with his football analysis. The problem I found with it is that it just doesn’t go into enough detail to fully explain the point he’s trying to make.... In order to do that, you actually list out every defensive player that Petrino signed from 2015 to 2018 and that Satterfield signed in 2019.

2015:
GG Robinson, Amonte Caban, Khane Pass, and Dee Smith in this class. Greenard’s transfer hurt greatly, and DE Tim Bonner never developed into a contributor. Devonte Fields, Drew Bailey, and Jaire Alexander were also in that class but were gone by 2019.

2016:
Gary McCrae, Tobias Little, Tabarius Peterson, Derek Dorsey, Lamarques Thomas, PJ Blue in this class and on the roster in 2019. Blue was injured this year. London Iakopo, Kordell Slater, Chris Williams, Ronald Walker, Caleb Tillman, Mike Boykin (didn’t qualify until 2018) all were off the roster by 2019.

2017:
CJ Avery, Russ Yeast, Malik Clark, Dorian Etheridge, Anthony Johnson, Nick Okeke still on the roster from this class. Kaheem Roach, Lyn Strange, Kam Jones, Tresean Smith, Rodney Owens all gone by 2019.

2018:
Marlon Character, Quen Head, Telly Plummer, Chandler Jones, Robert Hicks, Thurman Geathers, Jared Goldwire, Yasir Abdullah, Trennell Troutman on the roster in 2019 from this class. Dumervil-Jean medical redshirt. Allen Love and Jarrett Jackson not on the roster. Jackson is now at FSU and Love has been sitting out his redshirt year at Mississippi State.

2019:
Zach Edwards, Monty Montgomery, Allen Smith, Dorian Jones, Justin Ford on the roster, with Montgomery the main contributor as JC transfer.

 

[SpotHogCard]

I really, REALLY dislike that damn Petrino

 

[gocds]

Uh, no criticism intended, but what’s new in this article that we didn’t already know? It will take time just as Coach Brown said and we cannot expect a turn around overnight. It is happening and our depth next season will be better than it was/is this past season but it’ll still be two or three more years before we’ll feel comfortable. And, yes, Petrino is to blame - so what’s new about that? Nothing. Time to move on.

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!

 

[Rollem Cards]

Maybe I’m having selective memory, but didn’t he have a lot of “signees” never show up in his first stint here?

Then, when HWWNBN was faced with the SAME problem (no depth) we labeled him the worst coach ever.

I’ve always said BP has screwed us four times. When he left the first time, left us “short handed”, quit on us the second time, and left us short again.

Yes, he gave us some good times and teams, but he was smoke and mirrors with other people’s players.

And he knew it. That’s why four years was his time clock.

 

[beantowncard]

Kragthorpe really killed his relationship with the fans in 2007. We had a ton of returning talent off the OB team and didn’t even make a bowl. It left him very little room to maneuver when times got tough.

 

[PushupMan]

Maybe I’m having selective memory, but didn’t he have a lot of “signees” never show up in his first stint here?

Then, when HWWNBN was faced with the SAME problem (no depth) we labeled him the worst coach ever.

I’ve always said BP has screwed us four times. When he left the first time, left us “short handed”, quit on us the second time, and left us short again.

Yes, he gave us some good times and teams, but he was smoke and mirrors with other people’s players.

And he knew it. That’s why four years was his time clock.

Some of it was that signees didn’t show up, but some of it was also taking JC transfers and transfers from other 4-year schools who were very talented but only on the roster for a couple of years. You see that in the 2015 class I listed above, where Fields, Bailey, and Alexander were all excellent players for us, but were gone off the roster before the disastrous 2018 season.

And a big part of the reason for recruiting that way is to have success on the field, which then elevates the reputation of our program and allows us to recruit more highly ranked players.

We didn’t know it yet, but when James Quick failed to get that extra two yards at Clemson to win our ACC Division, Coach Petrino’s short term strategy to elevate our recruiting was doomed to failure.

 

[Thecycle27]

The article pretty much confirms Petrino had no idea how to build a roster. His success was a direct result of established rosters. He was able to take advantage of that in his coaching career. This go around he wasn’t going anywhere so his inability to build a roster cost him his job instead of someone else.

I still think the staff turnover and their genuine dislike of him impacting their recruiting plan. They had no real plan.

Talent on defense was a real issue this year and the rebuild is happening. That is the reality. The only way out is to follow the plan and they do have a plan.

 

[Knucklehank1]

Uh, no criticism intended, but what’s new in this article that we didn’t already know? It will take time just as Coach Brown said and we cannot expect a turn around overnight. It is happening and our depth next season will be better than it was/is this past season but it’ll still be two or three more years before we’ll feel comfortable. And, yes, Petrino is to blame - so what’s new about that? Nothing. Time to move on.

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!

Sorry you didn’t care for the article. I felt like it went beyond the normal anecdotal observations that most of us post. I like that Push-up took the article one step further. It’s eye opening how much attrition, evaluation misses and just flat out non-recruiting occurred on the defensive side of the ball. The number of guys simply no longer playing football seems crazy.

 

[gocds]

Sorry you didn’t care for the article. I felt like it went beyond the normal anecdotal observations that most of us post. I like that Push-up took the article one step further. It’s eye opening how much attrition, evaluation misses and just flat out non-recruiting occurred on the defensive side of the ball. The number of guys simply no longer playing football seems crazy.

Well there was no disrespect intended either. But you can go to lengths to complicate situations that are not all that complicated. And even though the writer is obviously talented, this is where and how I see this article. We are simply short of depth and talent and we all know why and whom to blame. As Coach Brown and CSS have allluded, we will need time to get our entire team up to speed. We are making real progress and I’m very hopeful about that.

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!

 

[PushupMan]

Well there was no disrespect intended either. But you can go to lengths to complicate situations that are not all that complicated. And even though the writer is obviously talented, this is where and how I see this article. We are simply short of depth and talent and we all know why and whom to blame. As Coach Brown and CSS have allluded, we will need time to get our entire team up to speed. We are making real progress and I’m very hopeful about that.

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!

His football game reviews are fantastic. He embeds video of between 5 and 10 key plays per quarter, complete with analysis of what he saw happening on each play. Hopefully we get the win on Monday, which will make his final four film reviews of the year a blast to review.

 

[zipp]

Analogous to what Satterfield did with the offense this year...

Charlie Strong and Vance Bedford immediately improved our defense after inheriting a train wreck in 2009. That's what good coaching can do.

2010
2009

And we need to see some of that next year...

 

[Thecycle27]

While agree they need to improve I am not expecting big jump until year 3. They are going to relying on a bunch of freshman along the line.

What Strong didn’t have to deal with was the level of attrition on his side of the ball. The OP link shows you how poorly Petrino recruited on defense especially along the line.

 

[zipp]

While agree they need to improve I am not expecting big jump until year 3. They are going to relying on a bunch of freshman along the line.

What Strong didn’t have to deal with was the level of attrition on his side of the ball. The OP link shows you how poorly Petrino recruited on defense especially along the line.

That's recency bias or a lack of research.

Our football recruiting classes in 2008 and 2009 were ranked 55th and 76th, respectively, the two years before Strong & Co rode into town. Strong inherited no more talent on defense than Satterfield did. What Strong did was coach up what he had and then brought in his own talent. Good coaches can make an immediate impact...

 

[Knucklehank1]

That's recency bias or a lack of research.

Our football recruiting classes in 2008 and 2009 were ranked 55th and 76th, respectively, the two years before Strong & Co rode into town. Strong inherited no more talent on defense than Satterfield did. What Strong did was coach up what he had and then brought in his own talent. Good coaches can make an immediate impact...

Just curious and I’m too lazy to research from my hotel in Nashville...how did those recruiting rankings stack up in our conference at the time?

 

[zipp]

Just curious and I’m too lazy to research from my hotel in Nashville...how did those recruiting rankings stack up in our conference at the time?

There were eight teams in the Big East playing football in those years. In 2008, we were ranked 6th in the conference per Rivals recruiting rankings.

In 2009, we were last of the seven BEast schools ranked in the Rivals Top 100. Rivals didn't rank Syracuse which I guess means they were outside the Top 100.

Based on total defense (ypg allowed), Strong elevated U of L nationally from 65th in 2009 to 14th in 2010. As far as defense, he and Bedford knew what they were doing IMO...

 

[LeFors4Ever]

That's recency bias or a lack of research.

Our football recruiting classes in 2008 and 2009 were ranked 55th and 76th, respectively, the two years before Strong & Co rode into town. Strong inherited no more talent on defense than Satterfield did. What Strong did was coach up what he had and then brought in his own talent. Good coaches can make an immediate impact...

Talent is one thing, but depth and roster balance is another.

Charlie did a great job, but he probably had some bodies that were a bit better. Scott took over maybe the worst defense in NCAA history, Cholly took over a middle rated defense and made them top notch.

Now I agree the staff may could’ve done a bit better, but without depth and size it’s hard to compare the jobs they had to do.

Now the talent Scott inherited on offense was filled with highly rated offensive players. And with those players he took them from an inept system to one of the most high powered offenses in the country.

 

[Thecycle27]

There was plenty in research in that article it doesn’t fit your narrative.

The recruiting rankings are based off of number of players recruited and the number based ranking. One of the points of the OP linked article the staff didn’t recruit the dline at all. The overall class ranking is a good indicator but it can hide individual units. In 2017 the class ranking was 29th they signed 1 dline in that class who played LB and weighed 219 lbs. On top of that the guys they did land didn’t stay all listed in the article. The guys that did stay on the dline didn’t have any D1 offers at that position. What part of the article is inaccurate.

Compare the recruiting rankings of the teams Strong and Satterfield faced in year 1. The best classes in the Big East in 2008/2009 were ranked 28th/27th. Satterfield faced 6 teams with team rankings in the top 30 in 2017/2018.

We all agree the defense wasn’t good but comparing Strong situation against Satterfield is ridiculous. While they were both taking over broken programs that is where the comparison ends. Compare next years results against this year. No improvement or it takes a step back OK we may have an issue at DC..

 

[LeFors4Ever]

There was plenty in research in that article it doesn’t fit your narrative.

The recruiting rankings are based off of number of players recruited and the number based ranking. One of the points of the OP linked article the staff didn’t recruit the dline at all. The overall class ranking is a good indicator but it can hide individual units. In 2017 the class ranking was 29th they signed 1 dline in that class who played LB and weighed 219 lbs. On top of that the guys they did land didn’t stay all listed in the article. The guys that did stay on the dline didn’t have any D1 offers at that position. What part of the article is inaccurate.

Compare the recruiting rankings of the teams Strong and Satterfield faced in year 1. The best classes in the Big East in 2008/2009 were ranked 28th/27th. Satterfield faced 6 teams with team rankings in the top 30 in 2017/2018.

We all agree the defense wasn’t good but comparing Strong situation against Satterfield is ridiculous. While they were both taking over broken programs that is where the comparison ends. Compare next years results against this year. No improvement or it takes a step back OK we may have an issue at DC..

And the Big East has hit a down trend. It’s not like those programs were thriving by that point.

Rich Rod had left WVU. Rutgers was ok but nothing special. UConn under Edsall was proven to be a fraud on the big stage. South Florida hasn’t reached the heights they had earlier. Cuse was down.

 

[zipp]

Talent is one thing, but depth and roster balance is another.

Charlie did a great job, but he probably had some bodies that were a bit better. Scott took over maybe the worst defense in NCAA history, Cholly took over a middle rated defense and made them top notch.

Now I agree the staff may could’ve done a bit better, but without depth and size it’s hard to compare the jobs they had to do.

Now the talent Scott inherited on offense was filled with highly rated offensive players. And with those players he took them from an inept system to one of the most high powered offenses in the country.

That all sounds good. But you need data to support it. Just a story otherwise...

 

[zipp]

There was plenty in research in that article it doesn’t fit your narrative.

The recruiting rankings are based off of number of players recruited and the number based ranking. One of the points of the OP linked article the staff didn’t recruit the dline at all. The overall class ranking is a good indicator but it can hide individual units. In 2017 the class ranking was 29th they signed 1 dline in that class who played LB and weighed 219 lbs. On top of that the guys they did land didn’t stay all listed in the article. The guys that did stay on the dline didn’t have any D1 offers at that position. What part of the article is inaccurate.

Compare the recruiting rankings of the teams Strong and Satterfield faced in year 1. The best classes in the Big East in 2008/2009 were ranked 28th/27th. Satterfield faced 6 teams with team rankings in the top 30 in 2017/2018.

We all agree the defense wasn’t good but comparing Strong situation against Satterfield is ridiculous. While they were both taking over broken programs that is where the comparison ends. Compare next years results against this year. No improvement or it takes a step back OK we may have an issue at DC..

Same retort. It’s just a story without data.

Too many people wanna give these coaches—esp. defense—a pass. That’s not a problem for me. And don’t tell a U of L fan he doesn’t have recent experience with bad defensive coaching...

 

[Mayoman]

^ BS. You are overlooking Pushups post...2nd one on the thread. Data that supports the story....just not your story.

 

[zipp]

^ BS. You are overlooking Pushups post...2nd one on the thread. Data that supports the story....just not your story.

That's just an historical account of the defensive roster. On its own, it means little.

Are you saying there has been no attrition on offense? Are you saying Strong didn't have any attrition in 2009? How did we perform so well against a "big SEC team" tonite and sh!t the bed against a no better SEC team in the prior game?

That's missing data and dots that don't connect...

 

[Mayoman]

^ Blah, blah, blah. What the heck are you babbling on about this time?

Connecting dots is not your best attribute now is it? Only your dots and no one else right? Nice. Got it.

 

[zipp]

^ Blah, blah, blah. What the heck are you babbling on about this time?

Connecting dots is not your best attribute now is it? Only your dots and no one else right? Nice. Got it.

I don't think you helped answer any questions. You sure didn't answer mine...

 

[Knucklehank1]

That's just an historical account of the defensive roster. On its own, it means little.

Are you saying there has been no attrition on offense? Are you saying Strong didn't have any attrition in 2009? How did we perform so well against a "big SEC team" tonite and sh!t the bed against a no better SEC team in the prior game?

That's missing data and dots that don't connect...

I feel like you could make a pretty slick graph based off of Pushup’s post. Each name and their status could be data points.

 

[zipp]

I feel like you could make a pretty slick graph based off of Pushup’s post. Each name and their status could be data points.

At the moment, I'll settle for a plausible explanation for the LPT game in view of tonite's result. You can pick up where the "talent" argument left off...

 

[BPGhost]

At the moment, I'll settle for a plausible explanation for the LPT game in view of tonite's result. You can pick up where the "talent" argument left off...

Here’s one. The transitive property doesn’t work in sports.

You’re welcome.

 

[Knucklehank1]

At the moment, I'll settle for a plausible explanation for the LPT game in view of tonite's result. You can pick up where the "talent" argument left off...

The plausible explanations for LPT game was overmatched front 7, lack of depth and talent, poor game planning, opponents strengths exposing our weaknesses.

 

[zipp]

The plausible explanations for LPT game was overmatched front 7, lack of depth and talent, poor game planning, opponents strengths exposing our weaknesses.

Well, "poor game planning" at least moves away from what I consider to be unsupported evidence bordering on excuses.

Your other three are just variations on saying that LPT is significantly better than we are personnel-wise. There wasn't much evidence for that in the wake of the LPT game, and there's even less now. Mississippi State consistently recruits as well as, if not a little better than LPT...

 

[PHCARD]

Some folks are just able to move on from a loss @KY. Others have to wallow in the crap forever. GTFOI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[PushupMan]

Well, "poor game planning" at least moves away from what I consider to be unsupported evidence bordering on excuses.

Your other three are just variations on saying that LPT is significantly better than we are personnel-wise. There wasn't much evidence for that in the wake of the LPT game, and there's even less now. Mississippi State consistently recruits as well as, if not a little better than LPT...

They do typically recruit better than UK, but
it does appear that they have some serious issues with team chemistry. There were a couple of examples recently that hint at some problems: starting LB Errol Thompson called out star cornerback (Cameron Dantzler) for skipping the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. Also, LB Willie Gay broke the orbital bone of QB Garrett Schrader in a (rumored) locker room fight after a bowl practice. Gay also missed 8 games this season for an unspecified violation of team rules. Coach Moorhead received some criticism for choosing to allow Gay to play in the game.

So at least some (half?) can be attributed to playing a team in disarray on December 28th, as opposed to playing a team on November 30th that had been able to use the 9 weeks since the injuries to their top 2 QBs to come up with a workable offense that fit their personnel. And it certainly didn’t hurt that the offense UK chose to run was not affected in the slightest by a rainstorm that actually peaked during the 3 hours that the UK-UofL game was played.

 

[zipp]

They do typically recruit better than UK, but
it does appear that they have some serious issues with team chemistry. There were a couple of examples recently that hint at some problems: starting LB Errol Thompson called out star cornerback (Cameron Dantzler) for skipping the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. Also, LB Willie Gay broke the orbital bone of QB Garrett Schrader in a (rumored) locker room fight after a bowl practice. Gay also missed 8 games this season for an unspecified violation of team rules. Coach Moorhead received some criticism for choosing to allow Gay to play in the game.

So at least some (half?) can be attributed to playing a team in disarray on December 28th, as opposed to playing a team on November 30th that had been able to use the 9 weeks since the injuries to their top 2 QBs to come up with a workable offense that fit their personnel. And it certainly didn’t hurt that the offense UK chose to run was not affected in the slightest by a rainstorm that actually peaked during the 3 hours that the UK-UofL game was played.

If I understand correctly, the Vegas line on yesterday's game didn't move when news of the QB change came out. And I know for sure that we were playing yesterday without the best player on this year's team. You're discrediting a nice win over a bowl eligible SEC team.

We played a large percentage of our games--and won them--in off weather this year. In large part, that's also because we rely heavily on the running game. Further credit to our guys. I don't recall another game this year that we explained away because of the weather.

You also forgot that some our guys were allegedly sick against LPT.

BUT at least this is progress... We're gradually moving away from the bull$hit talent excuse in the aftermath of the LPT game. Discussion is often good therapy...

 

[Knucklehank1]

Lynn Bowden just carved up the Bud Foster VaTech defense. Maybe part of the explanation is that he is just a lot better than the other dudes on the field.

 

[zipp]

Lynn Bowden just carved up the Bud Foster VaTech defense. Maybe part of the explanation is that he is just a lot better than the other dudes on the field.

Bowden and LPT bagged nearly two hundred more yards of offense against U of L than against Tech, and set multiple offensive records in that game. He lobbed a PASS for the winning TD with under 20 seconds today. The slappies ran for their winning TD against U of L with 40 seconds to go in the FIRST quarter. That was on their way to FOUT more TDs and a FG against us.

Bowden and the slappies eked out a victory today. They embarrassed us. Just a slight difference...

 

[Knucklehank1]

Bowden and LPT bagged nearly two hundred more yards of offense against U of L than against Tech, and set multiple offensive records in that game. He lobbed a PASS for the winning TD with under 20 seconds today. The slappies ran for their winning TD against U of L with 40 seconds to go in the FIRST quarter. That was on their way to FOUT more TDs and a FG against us.

Bowden and the slappies eked out a victory today. They embarrassed us. Just a slight difference...

So it seems you are in agreement that it’s part of the explanation. I think we will see a more reasonable Zipp in 2020 and I for one will be happy to see this. Happy New Year!

 

[BPGhost]

Bowden and LPT bagged nearly two hundred more yards of offense against U of L than against Tech, and set multiple offensive records in that game. He lobbed a PASS for the winning TD with under 20 seconds today. The slappies ran for their winning TD against U of L with 40 seconds to go in the FIRST quarter. That was on their way to FOUT more TDs and a FG against us.

Bowden and the slappies eked out a victory today. They embarrassed us. Just a slight difference...

Matchups and conditions matter.

 

[FlavRunit]

Can’t compare Charlie and Coach Satt in year one. When Charlie was hired, there was only one signing date. He had plenty of time to poach players to put together a make shift recruiting class. Coach Satt has a few days to discard Petrino commits and recruit a small class. He didn’t have the luxury of getting settled and cherry picking players over a two month period.