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BOZICH | Coach says Michigan has to make 10 threes to beat Louisville

REDFISTFURY3

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a coach whose team played Michigan this season for his thoughts on the Cardinals-Wolverines matchup:
"Michigan is playing at a high level right now. D.J. Wilson's emergence makes them a tough matchup and they have a veteran point guard in (Derrick) Walton who loves the big moment."
Can Michigan pull the upset?
"Only if they hit at least 10 three-point shots and Louisville is off offensively."
Three quick thoughts on a the Louisville-Michigan game (for the record, Jeff Sagarin's predictor numbers favor U of L by 4.42 points):
 
The last two times the Cards have faced Beilein, they had to fight back from being around 20 points down. That kind of scares me a bit. Let's hope for better ball movement on Sunday.
Can't afford to spot Mich a sizable lead the last thing we need for is them feeling that outside shot. I got a feeling Rick emphsis will be on perimeter on ball defense to begin the game to try and slow that from happening. I look for a diffrent lineup with length to start the game. And 10 threes just doesn't seem like a lot either.Thats basically saying Louisville is not a very dangerous offensive team. We gave 4 alone to a 7 footer today considering Mich jacks up at least 20 or more a game.
 
DUke just hit 10 in the 1st half against Troy so it's not out of norm for great shooting team Like Mich is to do it. I'm not having a very confident feeling about this game. Whatsoever
 
I was just making an analogy that it can be done. Well Duke hit 7 against us last. time

And won by how much? Our average is 7. Guess what, if we shoot our average we win that game. 9 out of those 10 3's Duke made vs Troy were wide open.
 
One anomaly game in how many? Cause we sure dont avg 7 a game for sure,

I'm not arguing. I'm just providing factual information......And if we lose Sunday, it doesn't make me wrong. Just you comparing OKState and Troy's defense to UofL's isn't comparable.

Oh, btw, we have made 228/636 3pters. That is rounded 36%. 228 made 3's divided by total games (33) 228/33 is 6.91 3pters per game. And you cant have .9 of a 3, so it rounds up to 7 three pointers per game.

And that didn't include today. Today we hit 5 for 15. 233/615 = 37.8%. 233/33 = 7.06 3's/game.
 
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a coach whose team played Michigan this season for his thoughts on the Cardinals-Wolverines matchup:
"Michigan is playing at a high level right now. D.J. Wilson's emergence makes them a tough matchup and they have a veteran point guard in (Derrick) Walton who loves the big moment."
Can Michigan pull the upset?
"Only if they hit at least 10 three-point shots and Louisville is off offensively."
Three quick thoughts on a the Louisville-Michigan game (for the record, Jeff Sagarin's predictor numbers favor U of L by 4.42 points):
No big deal...at least for MI. They average 9.4 made 3s/game. Typically, 45% of their shots are 3 pointers and they hit them at a 38% rate.

Peace
 
Richard Pitino should have a detailed scout report on Michigan that he can share with UL. I'm sure the first person CRP should call to help us scout Michigan is his son. That said, this team has a way of forgetting its scout report. I'm very worried that we don't have a team that can play locked-down defense like some of our other teams that made a deep run in the past tourneys.
 
I'm not arguing. I'm just providing factual information......And if we lose Sunday, it doesn't make me wrong. Just you comparing OKState and Troy's defense to UofL's isn't comparable.

Oh, btw, we have made 228/636 3pters. That is rounded 36%. 228 made 3's divided by total games (33) 228/33 is 6.91 3pters per game. And you cant have .9 of a 3, so it rounds up to 7 three pointers per game.

And that didn't include today. Today we hit 5 for 15. 233/615 = 37.8%. 233/33 = 7.06 3's/game.

Thanks for the data. But our average can't go up when we make less than our average. I think you need to divide by 34. Which puts it somewhere around 6.8/game.
 
Thanks for the data. But our average can't go up when we make less than our average. I think you need to divide by 34. Which puts it somewhere around 6.8/game.

Our average went up because of the previous game versus Duke where we only hit 4. And in the previous data I counted in the game we played today, 33, but the makes and attempts weren't in the data by accident. So really that should have been 228/32
 
I'm not arguing. I'm just providing factual information......And if we lose Sunday, it doesn't make me wrong. Just you comparing OKState and Troy's defense to UofL's isn't comparable.

Oh, btw, we have made 228/636 3pters. That is rounded 36%. 228 made 3's divided by total games (33) 228/33 is 6.91 3pters per game. And you cant have .9 of a 3, so it rounds up to 7 three pointers per game.

And that didn't include today. Today we hit 5 for 15. 233/615 = 37.8%. 233/33 = 7.06 3's/game.

Bluefist is running around like a chicken wi his head cut off.
Michigan gave up 91 points.
I aint scurred..............
UofL beats big blue.
 
Bluefist is running around like a chicken wi his head cut off.
Michigan gave up 91 points.
I aint scurred..............
UofL beats big blue.
Bluefist yell right Amazing how only a few posters comments are always the only voices that are the alleged true Cards fans.
 
this team has a way of forgetting its scout report. I'm very worried that we don't have a team that can play locked-down defense like some of our other teams that made a deep run in the past tourneys.
I'd agree they lose focus of the scouting report now and then.Tbs,I don't think it's when the stakes are this high.Our problem is we overplay everything and get beat off the bounce.This game plays a little into our wheelhouse I think.

Penetrating guards may be a problem down the road a bit.I think they'll hone in on the shooters Sunday.
 
We will be shooting threes also but Michigan will have major problems with Mango inside. Their inside game is dismal. We should have a major advantage there plus I think our 3 pt line defense will be excellent. And, by the way I do not remember Michigan being ahead of us by 20 in the last game we played against them.

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
 
Bluefist is running around like a chicken wi his head cut off.
Michigan gave up 91 points.
I aint scurred..............
UofL beats big blue.
This. Yes, Michigan hit 16 threes (on 29 attempts for a smooth 55%), but they still only won by one point. One. I respect Michigan, but I think they have our players' attention and we walk out with a win.
 
No big deal...at least for MI. They average 9.4 made 3s/game. Typically, 45% of their shots are 3 pointers and they hit them at a 38% rate.

Peace
I'm tagging my own post to keep from repeating. I have not watched MI this year but it is crystal clear they live or die with the 3 pointer. They have 6 guys that have made 36 or more 3s this year. We have 3. We will have an inside advantage but we will have to make some 3s.

My favorite stats site says we average 7.1 made 3s/game. That is about a 7 point/game difference from beyond the arc which can be offset with superior inside the arc play. But, very obviously, we don't want to get into a three point shooting contest with them.

My b-ball smart friends tell me there are basically 3 ways to get a 3 point shot out of set offense:

1. Screen for shooter
2. Ball rotation
3. Penetrate and kick

Barring an insanely hot shooting performance like they had against OSU I think we can defend options (1) and (2) well enough. Over the course of the year, defending drive and kick seems to have given us the most problem. MI has 3 point shooters all over the court so preventing dribble penetration looms large in this game.

I don't know what it means but against OSU MI scored 17 over their seasonal average (74.8) but allowed about 25 over their defensive average (65.5). FWIW both those averages are very similar to our own scoring and defense stats. JMO

Peace
 
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I think Michigan will get theirs, so to speak, from 3 point land but I'm hoping the Cards will rebound and score in the paint and do enough in the other areas to weather the storm like they did against a hot shooting VA Tech earlier this year.
 
Richard Pitino should have a detailed scout report on Michigan that he can share with UL. I'm sure the first person CRP should call to help us scout Michigan is his son. That said, this team has a way of forgetting its scout report. I'm very worried that we don't have a team that can play locked-down defense like some of our other teams that made a deep run in the past tourneys.

Nailed it. This is my primary concern. This team has shown their ability to forget about the scouting report and have key defensive lapses at times. I'm sure coach is drilling this even more today. If they do not follow the scouting report and play lock-down defense, their season may end tomorrow.
 
Look no question that MI is a jump shooting team. The way to beat teams like this is to get into their legs. What do I mean? When jump shooters are tired they start clanging their shots off the front of the rim. How do we tire out their shooters? The same we did against Jacksonville State. Press them start to finish. They are going to make some threes against us. IMO it will be 7 to 10. We can offset that by hitting about 6 of our own. Creating points off the press. Playing pressing man to man defense against a team that defensively challenged any will give us a lot of transition baskets. When we run our half court offense get the ball inside. Like the Cards in this one 82 to 77.
 
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Bluefist is running around like a chicken wi his head cut off.
Michigan gave up 91 points.
I aint scurred..............
UofL beats big blue.
Don't rely on the common feeling that Michigan giving up 91 to Oklahoma St is a sign they are vulnerable. Playing this year with Brad Underwood coaching, the Cowboys score big on everyone including Kansas, twice.

I do feel better about our guys being able to make Michigan's shooters a heck of lot more uncomfortable than OSU did. We better take good shots and keep their 2nd chances at a minimum on defense.
 
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Don't rely on the common feeling that Michigan giving up 91 to Oklahoma St is a sign they are vulnerable. Playing this year with Brad Underwood coaching, the Cowboys score big on everyone including Kansas, twice.

I do feel better about our guys being able to make Michigan's shooters a heck of lot more uncomfortable than OSU did. We better take good shots and keep their 2nd chances at a minimum on defense.
Bingo !!! I watch a lot of other teams during the season not just my fandom team. You have to be well rounded and balanced when assessing ALL teams.
 
I fully expect UM to hit more than ten 3's but that by no means guarantees a win for them.

This ought to be a great game. As a UM fan, I do like how the Big Ten has been performing vs. the ACC's swoon -- that is unexpected as I had clearly thought it was the best conference.
 
Look no question that MI is a jump shooting team. The way to beat teams like this is to get into their legs. What do I mean? When jump shooters are tired they start clanging their shots off the front of the rim. How do we tire out their shooters? The same we did against Jacksonville State. Press them start to finish. They are going to make some threes against us. IMO it will be 7 to 10. We can offset that by hitting about 6 of our own. Creating points off the press. Playing pressing man to man defense against a team that defensively challenged any will give us a lot of transition baskets. When we run our half court offense get the ball inside. Like the Cards in this one 82 to 77.
UM has good ball handlers and doesn't turn the ball over much.
 
I'm tagging my own post to keep from repeating. I have not watched MI this year but it is crystal clear they live or die with the 3 pointer. They have 6 guys that have made 36 or more 3s this year. We have 3. We will have an inside advantage but we will have to make some 3s.

My favorite stats site says we average 7.1 made 3s/game. That is about a 7 point/game difference from beyond the arc which can be offset with superior inside the arc play. But, very obviously, we don't want to get into a three point shooting contest with them.

My b-ball smart friends tell me there are basically 3 ways to get a 3 point shot out of set offense:

1. Screen for shooter
2. Ball rotation
3. Penetrate and kick

Barring an insanely hot shooting performance like they had against OSU I think we can defend options (1) and (2) well enough. Over the course of the year, defending drive and kick seems to have given us the most problem. MI has 3 point shooters all over the court so preventing dribble penetration looms large in this game.

I don't know what it means but against OSU MI scored 17 over their seasonal average (74.8) but allowed about 25 over their defensive average (65.5). FWIW both those averages are very similar to our own scoring and defense stats. JMO

Peace
UM has been hot from three for about a month. The game against OSU was odd in that the score was like 10-10 after nine minutes and then both teams went on a tear for thee final thirty minutes. Both are excellent offensive teams -- maybe the best display of offense I've ever seen in a college game.
 
Look no question that MI is a jump shooting team. The way to beat teams like this is to get into their legs. What do I mean? When jump shooters are tired they start clanging their shots off the front of the rim. How do we tire out their shooters? The same we did against Jacksonville State. Press them start to finish. They are going to make some threes against us. IMO it will be 7 to 10. We can offset that by hitting about 6 of our own. Creating points off the press. Playing pressing man to man defense against a team that defensively challenged any will give us a lot of transition baskets. When we run our half court offense get the ball inside. Like the Cards in this one 82 to 77.

UM has good ball handlers and doesn't turn the ball over much.

Cancun, I would suggest reading Cocoa's post again.

Louisville presses for several reasons with the primary one being to get into the legs of opponents and wearing them down. Not necessarily to turn them over.

The press also eats into a teams offensive possession and can get them out of rhythm or force a team to play at a speed they are uncomfortable with.
 
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I know Michigan fans have been waiting for this rematch for 4 years.I know a few of them that work in and around Ford plants in Louisville that transplanted here.

Shoot em straight Woolverines,but not too straight.;)
 
I know Michigan fans have been waiting for this rematch for 4 years.I know a few of them that work in and around Ford plants in Louisville that transplanted here.

Shoot em straight Woolverines,but not too straight.;)

I work with alot of Michigan people also.
Theyre more into football of course.
 
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