One Man's View of Where This is All Headed
While we may not see this in the next 2 or 3 years, I think it is likely ESPN and another company like Amazon will take us to a 40-team National College Football League within 6 to 10 years. I think we are seeing just how easily ESPN can manipulate changes in conference affiliations simply using money. My view is that ESPN is making an early movement to start this consolidation, with their arranged realignment of Texas and Oklahoma into the SEC.
I think these 40 teams will be football teams only, not directly affiliated with basketball teams wearing their university's uniforms.
I think the league will be a pay-for-play league in which the team main sponsors will also pay for the player 'scholarships' to the schools, if the players actually want to attend school. If they don't I'm not sure that would be a requirement. Teams, Sponsors, Players, Coaches and Investors will all receive substantial compensation.
(I think basketball teams will operate in a separate set of conferences or in a separate league. Perhaps similarly. Perhaps not. I need to fully think about that. There are a lot more potential teams that could be in such a basketball league, but the team values would be only a fraction of the Football team league values.)
The National College Football League will be tightly affiliated with those 40 universities for whom they play. But they will not be an organic part of those respective affiliated universities.
The League will not be affiliated in any way with the NCAA. Whether or not the League will be able to be 'not-for-profit' is an open question, but I doubt it. The league will probably be viewed by the IRS as For-Profit.
So, while this concept bothers many on this board and across the country, I think it is where the idea of valuing money above everything else ultimately takes us.
I think ESPN and Amazon can squeeze out about 98% of the financial value of such a league with just 40 teams. They won't need 48. Or 50. Or 60. I DO think that it is possible they could get by with 32 teams, but I don't think so.
So, in my mind's exercise, I accept 40 as the number and I challenge myself to come up with just who those 40 teams will likely be.
First, to cut through to what almost everyone of you is interested in, I DO NOT think Louisville is included among the 40.
Here is a list of the 50 most valuable College Football teams (by IUPU-Ryan Brewer) just as the pandemic was starting:
While this list may not be perfect, it's a decent place to start.
Most of you will want to see such a list for College Basketball teams, so here it is for comparison:
I think the League will be organized into 4 "conferences or divisions".
I think there will be some slight adjustments to the makeup of various divisions in order to maximize streaming-subscription eyeball reach.
Big North, Atlantic, Southeast, Pacific West (all arbitrary names I am using simply to assign the 40 teams)
Big North
Michigan
Ohio State
Notre Dame
Iowa
Nebraska
Penn State
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Illinois
Indiana
Southeast
Florida
Auburn
Georgia
Alabama
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas
South Carolina
Kentucky
Mississippi
Atlantic
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Florida State
Miami FL
Virginia
NC State
North Carolina
Pitt
Pacific West
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Oregon
Washington
Texas Tech
Colorado
USC
Arizona State
Utah
I think these teams will play 14-game regular season schedules. I think players will be allowed to play in and have eligibility into the league as long as they are able to play from a medical and health perspective, with no relationship to their respective ages. Other than they will be required to have graduated from High School.
(If there were to be a similar basketball league, it would be quite different in composition.)
EDIT: Here's an updated to 2019 valuation of football teams (in this listing, Louisville is #47):
graphics.wsj.com
Here's another recent view of the TOP 15 most valuable football teams:
www.forbes.com
While we may not see this in the next 2 or 3 years, I think it is likely ESPN and another company like Amazon will take us to a 40-team National College Football League within 6 to 10 years. I think we are seeing just how easily ESPN can manipulate changes in conference affiliations simply using money. My view is that ESPN is making an early movement to start this consolidation, with their arranged realignment of Texas and Oklahoma into the SEC.
I think these 40 teams will be football teams only, not directly affiliated with basketball teams wearing their university's uniforms.
I think the league will be a pay-for-play league in which the team main sponsors will also pay for the player 'scholarships' to the schools, if the players actually want to attend school. If they don't I'm not sure that would be a requirement. Teams, Sponsors, Players, Coaches and Investors will all receive substantial compensation.
(I think basketball teams will operate in a separate set of conferences or in a separate league. Perhaps similarly. Perhaps not. I need to fully think about that. There are a lot more potential teams that could be in such a basketball league, but the team values would be only a fraction of the Football team league values.)
The National College Football League will be tightly affiliated with those 40 universities for whom they play. But they will not be an organic part of those respective affiliated universities.
The League will not be affiliated in any way with the NCAA. Whether or not the League will be able to be 'not-for-profit' is an open question, but I doubt it. The league will probably be viewed by the IRS as For-Profit.
So, while this concept bothers many on this board and across the country, I think it is where the idea of valuing money above everything else ultimately takes us.
I think ESPN and Amazon can squeeze out about 98% of the financial value of such a league with just 40 teams. They won't need 48. Or 50. Or 60. I DO think that it is possible they could get by with 32 teams, but I don't think so.
So, in my mind's exercise, I accept 40 as the number and I challenge myself to come up with just who those 40 teams will likely be.
First, to cut through to what almost everyone of you is interested in, I DO NOT think Louisville is included among the 40.
Here is a list of the 50 most valuable College Football teams (by IUPU-Ryan Brewer) just as the pandemic was starting:
Redirect Notice
images.app.goo.gl
While this list may not be perfect, it's a decent place to start.
Most of you will want to see such a list for College Basketball teams, so here it is for comparison:
Redirect Notice
images.app.goo.gl
I think the League will be organized into 4 "conferences or divisions".
I think there will be some slight adjustments to the makeup of various divisions in order to maximize streaming-subscription eyeball reach.
Big North, Atlantic, Southeast, Pacific West (all arbitrary names I am using simply to assign the 40 teams)
Big North
Michigan
Ohio State
Notre Dame
Iowa
Nebraska
Penn State
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Illinois
Indiana
Southeast
Florida
Auburn
Georgia
Alabama
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas
South Carolina
Kentucky
Mississippi
Atlantic
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Florida State
Miami FL
Virginia
NC State
North Carolina
Pitt
Pacific West
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Oregon
Washington
Texas Tech
Colorado
USC
Arizona State
Utah
I think these teams will play 14-game regular season schedules. I think players will be allowed to play in and have eligibility into the league as long as they are able to play from a medical and health perspective, with no relationship to their respective ages. Other than they will be required to have graduated from High School.
(If there were to be a similar basketball league, it would be quite different in composition.)
EDIT: Here's an updated to 2019 valuation of football teams (in this listing, Louisville is #47):
College Football Value Rankings
Here's another recent view of the TOP 15 most valuable football teams:
College Football’s Most Valuable Teams: Reigning Champion Clemson Tigers Claw Into Top 25
Clemson’s on-field dominance has been paying off—the No. 1 team in the country now generates nearly $80 million per year in revenue, ranking the Tigers among the sport’s most valuable teams for the first time.
www.forbes.com
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