These guys have a much different take from at least one other Warchant staff writer: Complete Article @ https://floridastate.rivals.com/news/warchant-roundtable-hashing-out-fsu-s-past-and-future-conference-options
Warchant Staff
Q: OK, enough about the past. Now here we are in 2021 and many in the FSU community are extremely concerned about the ACC's future following the latest SEC power grab. If the ACC looks to expand and new Commissioner Jim Phillips asks for your input, which schools would you advise him to focus on?
COREY: Notre Dame. That's all that matters. Truly. What is West Virginia going to bring besides John Denver? Who else from the Big 12 would do anything for you from a financial perspective? What big-named brand is out there that would uplift the conference? There isn't one. So, it's Notre Dame or bust.
The only way that can happen, as I wrote in my column on the subject, is if the expanded playoff format includes a stipulation that you have to be a member of an FBS football conference to earn a berth. That's the only leverage that could make Notre Dame join a conference. But that's probably pie-in-the-sky thinking because so many folks are under the impression Notre Dame HAS to be involved in any playoff format moving forward. I would counter that by pointing out college football's popularity and finances have increased about a hundred fold in the past 30 years, and Notre Dame has been wholly average for almost all of that time, but nobody seems to care about that little fact. So, anyway, try Notre Dame. They are still a huge national brand even if they haven't won a championship of any kind in 33 years. Maybe even point out that little fact? "Hey, clearly being an independent isn't filling up your trophy case, so try something else! Just to see how it feels!"
TOM: *Sigh* If there is no nuclear option here to engineer a way out of the conference, I'd go big. I know the scuttlebutt this week is that the Pac-12 and Big Ten are looking at an inter-conference scheduling arrangement. If I'm Jim Phillips, I swing for the fences and see if we could help hammer out a super-conference that covers both coasts. Play a balanced schedule within the Eastern (former ACC) and Western (Pac-12) divisions, along with one trip across the country each year. Consolidate both coasts to create more leverage with ESPN. That would go much farther than poaching Notre Dame and West Virginia.
ASLAN: I don’t want to say Notre Dame, and I don’t think you have to say Notre Dame. I’ll omit them and go with this: Give me two of three out of Houston, TCU and UCF. Huge markets and more culturally aligned with the parts of our fan base located in Miami, Orlando and the Tampa metro. I’m most enticed by the Pac-12, namely USC and Washington, but it seems more like they’ll salvage any value from the Big 12 and bring it west.
Q: Do you think there's a better chance the ACC comes up with a counter-move that allows its member schools to remain competitive on the highest levels? Or do you think it falls further and further behind?
GENE: Unless Notre Dame joins the conference in football, there aren’t many moves the ACC can make to beef up the value of its television contract. The status quo has failed, so something dramatic would need to change to alter the ACC’s current financial shortcomings. If that happens, all signs point to the conference falling further behind its closest competitor.
If I were in Jim Phillips’ shoes, there is one Hail Mary play I would try. Even with Texas and Oklahoma in the fold, the SEC is still a regional conference. Despite all the power it yields financially and in football, it’s still financially dependent on a "national" television contract. That could work to the ACC’s advantage if it teamed up with the Pac-12, Big Ten and what’s left of the Big 12. What would happen if four of the Power 5 conferences agreed to not play the SEC in football and only play among themselves? It would greatly diminish the value of the SEC’s television contract and force ESPN to the table. Once that happens, the conferences could be restructured to make them more competitive, and television revenue would be shared equally among all the schools. It’s a bold move, but it might be the only card the ACC has left to play if it ever hopes to get on the same level as the SEC.
COREY: If the ACC is going to be a viable conference by itself, Notre Dame is the only counter-move. Because of how important that would be to ESPN (which is the puppeteer in all of this). It would cause the entire TV deal to be renegotiated. Now, if the ACC and Big Ten join forces? That could be something. A conference with Ohio State, Clemson, FSU, Michigan, Penn State, Miami and others could be a serious competitor to the SEC. But as far as the ACC remaining a standalone conference, again, the only real move is Notre Dame. Otherwise, the conference will have no way of competing with the SEC financially. And even if you do somehow land the Irish, the SEC will still be the dominant conference in the sport. No other "free agent" schools matter. None would move the needle anywhere close to enough to actually make an impact. And since I don't see Notre Dame joining this conference full time, my guess is that the ACC just falls further and further behind.
ASLAN: I’ll go with the former. We listed a litany of prestigious, established football programs out there for consideration, so there are options for the ACC to go tit for tat and stay relevant. We kind of forget, for better or worse, that Clemson (and Notre Dame to a lesser degree) are College Football Playoff fixtures — and that the ACC has won three of the last eight national titles. Miami is forever one good hire away from being a force again. If you did add Notre Dame and one of the premier teams from the Pac-12, say Southern Cal, you’re relevant and rolling strong.
Q: Do you see a scenario where FSU finds a way out of the ACC and bolts for another conference? What percent chance would you give it?
ASLAN: I really wonder what the mood in Clemson is. Are they panicking? Because they’re doing just fine. TV revenue deficit be damned, they know they’re gonna be in a playoff whether it’s four or 12 teams. Does FSU really need to be in a super-conference to reclaim its status? If Florida State runs the table or only loses one game, the 'Noles are making a four-team playoff nine times out of 10. And once a playoff expands to 12? A schedule with Clemson, Miami, Florida and sometimes Notre Dame -- plus home-and-homes with 'Bama, LSU and Georgia -- gives you all the opportunity you could hope for. I think it's far more likely that FSU stays put and works on getting its own act together than figuring out a way to pay some exorbitant Grant of Rights penalty to search for greener pastures.
COREY: I'm not seeing it, either. I'd say 5 percent? Unless the SEC and ESPN are trying to gather up all the best football schools in the country for some super league, it just wouldn't make sense for the SEC to add another power like FSU to an already way-too-powerful conference. Oklahoma and Texas are at least in different parts of the country. The SEC is already pretty darned big in the state of Florida. So that would seem like an odd move.
The Big Ten? Maybe. I guess. If it wants to keep pace with the SEC, it could make some huge waves by bringing in Clemson and Florida State. That would certainly be a move on par with Oklahoma/Texas. But the Big Ten has long required a particular profile for its member schools (AAU status), and FSU and Clemson wouldn't necessarily fit.
There's also the cultural challenges, and I don't know if Purdue and Minnesota and Illinois are going to be raising their hands really fast to bring in two more programs that can bludgeon them to death every fall. They're already making more money than they know what to do with as is, so what would be in it for those schools? So yeah, that's a long way of saying around 5 percent chance.
GENE: I’ve addressed this topic at least a dozen times on the Tribal Council, so what’s one more time? The Grant of Rights has an absolute stranglehold on Florida State. The school would have to surrender all its television rights through the 2035-36 season if it left the ACC. I’m not sure of the exact number, but these rights are worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Neither Florida State, nor the mighty SEC, can afford to pay that bill.
As addressed above, there doesn’t appear to be any loopholes or outs in the GOR that would permit FSU to leave without paying an enormous financial penalty. Worse, based on my reading of the GOR, there would have to be unanimous consent among member schools to change the terms. And there is no world in which Wake Forest and Boston College would agree to let FSU and Clemson go since it would effectively destroy their tenuous Power 5 status. So, absent ESPN coming to its senses, breaking up the ACC and restructuring the television contracts -- which could come with legal challenges, as we're seeing in the Big 12 -- I don’t see any scenario where FSU finds itself in another conference in the next 5-10 years.
Warchant Roundtable: Hashing out FSU's past and future conference options
Warchant Staff
Q: OK, enough about the past. Now here we are in 2021 and many in the FSU community are extremely concerned about the ACC's future following the latest SEC power grab. If the ACC looks to expand and new Commissioner Jim Phillips asks for your input, which schools would you advise him to focus on?
COREY: Notre Dame. That's all that matters. Truly. What is West Virginia going to bring besides John Denver? Who else from the Big 12 would do anything for you from a financial perspective? What big-named brand is out there that would uplift the conference? There isn't one. So, it's Notre Dame or bust.
The only way that can happen, as I wrote in my column on the subject, is if the expanded playoff format includes a stipulation that you have to be a member of an FBS football conference to earn a berth. That's the only leverage that could make Notre Dame join a conference. But that's probably pie-in-the-sky thinking because so many folks are under the impression Notre Dame HAS to be involved in any playoff format moving forward. I would counter that by pointing out college football's popularity and finances have increased about a hundred fold in the past 30 years, and Notre Dame has been wholly average for almost all of that time, but nobody seems to care about that little fact. So, anyway, try Notre Dame. They are still a huge national brand even if they haven't won a championship of any kind in 33 years. Maybe even point out that little fact? "Hey, clearly being an independent isn't filling up your trophy case, so try something else! Just to see how it feels!"
TOM: *Sigh* If there is no nuclear option here to engineer a way out of the conference, I'd go big. I know the scuttlebutt this week is that the Pac-12 and Big Ten are looking at an inter-conference scheduling arrangement. If I'm Jim Phillips, I swing for the fences and see if we could help hammer out a super-conference that covers both coasts. Play a balanced schedule within the Eastern (former ACC) and Western (Pac-12) divisions, along with one trip across the country each year. Consolidate both coasts to create more leverage with ESPN. That would go much farther than poaching Notre Dame and West Virginia.
ASLAN: I don’t want to say Notre Dame, and I don’t think you have to say Notre Dame. I’ll omit them and go with this: Give me two of three out of Houston, TCU and UCF. Huge markets and more culturally aligned with the parts of our fan base located in Miami, Orlando and the Tampa metro. I’m most enticed by the Pac-12, namely USC and Washington, but it seems more like they’ll salvage any value from the Big 12 and bring it west.
Q: Do you think there's a better chance the ACC comes up with a counter-move that allows its member schools to remain competitive on the highest levels? Or do you think it falls further and further behind?
GENE: Unless Notre Dame joins the conference in football, there aren’t many moves the ACC can make to beef up the value of its television contract. The status quo has failed, so something dramatic would need to change to alter the ACC’s current financial shortcomings. If that happens, all signs point to the conference falling further behind its closest competitor.
If I were in Jim Phillips’ shoes, there is one Hail Mary play I would try. Even with Texas and Oklahoma in the fold, the SEC is still a regional conference. Despite all the power it yields financially and in football, it’s still financially dependent on a "national" television contract. That could work to the ACC’s advantage if it teamed up with the Pac-12, Big Ten and what’s left of the Big 12. What would happen if four of the Power 5 conferences agreed to not play the SEC in football and only play among themselves? It would greatly diminish the value of the SEC’s television contract and force ESPN to the table. Once that happens, the conferences could be restructured to make them more competitive, and television revenue would be shared equally among all the schools. It’s a bold move, but it might be the only card the ACC has left to play if it ever hopes to get on the same level as the SEC.
COREY: If the ACC is going to be a viable conference by itself, Notre Dame is the only counter-move. Because of how important that would be to ESPN (which is the puppeteer in all of this). It would cause the entire TV deal to be renegotiated. Now, if the ACC and Big Ten join forces? That could be something. A conference with Ohio State, Clemson, FSU, Michigan, Penn State, Miami and others could be a serious competitor to the SEC. But as far as the ACC remaining a standalone conference, again, the only real move is Notre Dame. Otherwise, the conference will have no way of competing with the SEC financially. And even if you do somehow land the Irish, the SEC will still be the dominant conference in the sport. No other "free agent" schools matter. None would move the needle anywhere close to enough to actually make an impact. And since I don't see Notre Dame joining this conference full time, my guess is that the ACC just falls further and further behind.
ASLAN: I’ll go with the former. We listed a litany of prestigious, established football programs out there for consideration, so there are options for the ACC to go tit for tat and stay relevant. We kind of forget, for better or worse, that Clemson (and Notre Dame to a lesser degree) are College Football Playoff fixtures — and that the ACC has won three of the last eight national titles. Miami is forever one good hire away from being a force again. If you did add Notre Dame and one of the premier teams from the Pac-12, say Southern Cal, you’re relevant and rolling strong.
Q: Do you see a scenario where FSU finds a way out of the ACC and bolts for another conference? What percent chance would you give it?
ASLAN: I really wonder what the mood in Clemson is. Are they panicking? Because they’re doing just fine. TV revenue deficit be damned, they know they’re gonna be in a playoff whether it’s four or 12 teams. Does FSU really need to be in a super-conference to reclaim its status? If Florida State runs the table or only loses one game, the 'Noles are making a four-team playoff nine times out of 10. And once a playoff expands to 12? A schedule with Clemson, Miami, Florida and sometimes Notre Dame -- plus home-and-homes with 'Bama, LSU and Georgia -- gives you all the opportunity you could hope for. I think it's far more likely that FSU stays put and works on getting its own act together than figuring out a way to pay some exorbitant Grant of Rights penalty to search for greener pastures.
COREY: I'm not seeing it, either. I'd say 5 percent? Unless the SEC and ESPN are trying to gather up all the best football schools in the country for some super league, it just wouldn't make sense for the SEC to add another power like FSU to an already way-too-powerful conference. Oklahoma and Texas are at least in different parts of the country. The SEC is already pretty darned big in the state of Florida. So that would seem like an odd move.
The Big Ten? Maybe. I guess. If it wants to keep pace with the SEC, it could make some huge waves by bringing in Clemson and Florida State. That would certainly be a move on par with Oklahoma/Texas. But the Big Ten has long required a particular profile for its member schools (AAU status), and FSU and Clemson wouldn't necessarily fit.
There's also the cultural challenges, and I don't know if Purdue and Minnesota and Illinois are going to be raising their hands really fast to bring in two more programs that can bludgeon them to death every fall. They're already making more money than they know what to do with as is, so what would be in it for those schools? So yeah, that's a long way of saying around 5 percent chance.
GENE: I’ve addressed this topic at least a dozen times on the Tribal Council, so what’s one more time? The Grant of Rights has an absolute stranglehold on Florida State. The school would have to surrender all its television rights through the 2035-36 season if it left the ACC. I’m not sure of the exact number, but these rights are worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Neither Florida State, nor the mighty SEC, can afford to pay that bill.
As addressed above, there doesn’t appear to be any loopholes or outs in the GOR that would permit FSU to leave without paying an enormous financial penalty. Worse, based on my reading of the GOR, there would have to be unanimous consent among member schools to change the terms. And there is no world in which Wake Forest and Boston College would agree to let FSU and Clemson go since it would effectively destroy their tenuous Power 5 status. So, absent ESPN coming to its senses, breaking up the ACC and restructuring the television contracts -- which could come with legal challenges, as we're seeing in the Big 12 -- I don’t see any scenario where FSU finds itself in another conference in the next 5-10 years.
