Of course the Cards can shut the door when we beat the Canes this Saturday. But ESPN predictor has Miami as a 53.7% favorite to win. To remain in contention, UNC must overcome even steeper odds at Clemson. The Tigers are 60.6% favorites to clinch it for us if we fail to seal it ourselves.
We’ve already explored the shocking result that VT can steal the championship game spot from us by finishing in a 3-way tie with us and UNC. If both VT and UNC win this weekend, the scary scenario will be very much alive: both will be road favorites against their in-state rivals the following weekend while we are starting a new winning streak against the Wildcats.
With Georgia Tech sitting at 4-3 and owning the head to head tiebreaker against Miami (2-4), I began to wonder if UNC wasn’t already eliminated. The only way we lose a 2-way tie with UNC is if Miami finishes ahead of GT in the final conference standings. Tech is a 54.4% favorite to beat Syracuse this weekend, which would officially eliminate UNC from championship game contention.
But if Syracuse pulls the upset and if Miami wins their last two, Tech and Miami will both finish 4-4. As already noted, Tech holds the head to head, so UofL would still win a two way tie with UNC if Miami and GT also end up in a two way tie.
Similar to the shocking VT-UNC-UofL 3-way tie result, I was able to confirm that there are multiple 3-way and 4-way ties at 4-4 that would allow Miami to finish ahead of Georgia Tech in the final standings. BC, Duke, and either NC State or Virginia Tech (but not both) can all finish tied with GT and Miami at 4-4.
I haven’t examined any scenarios involving Duke to this point, but all 5 of the scenarios involving 3 or 4 way ties with GT, Miami, BC, VT or NCSt all result in Miami winning the tiebreaker over GT. So UNC IS still mathematically alive.
Cards, please put the Hurricanes down this Saturday and make any further analysis completely unnecessary! Go CARDS!!
We’ve already explored the shocking result that VT can steal the championship game spot from us by finishing in a 3-way tie with us and UNC. If both VT and UNC win this weekend, the scary scenario will be very much alive: both will be road favorites against their in-state rivals the following weekend while we are starting a new winning streak against the Wildcats.
With Georgia Tech sitting at 4-3 and owning the head to head tiebreaker against Miami (2-4), I began to wonder if UNC wasn’t already eliminated. The only way we lose a 2-way tie with UNC is if Miami finishes ahead of GT in the final conference standings. Tech is a 54.4% favorite to beat Syracuse this weekend, which would officially eliminate UNC from championship game contention.
But if Syracuse pulls the upset and if Miami wins their last two, Tech and Miami will both finish 4-4. As already noted, Tech holds the head to head, so UofL would still win a two way tie with UNC if Miami and GT also end up in a two way tie.
Similar to the shocking VT-UNC-UofL 3-way tie result, I was able to confirm that there are multiple 3-way and 4-way ties at 4-4 that would allow Miami to finish ahead of Georgia Tech in the final standings. BC, Duke, and either NC State or Virginia Tech (but not both) can all finish tied with GT and Miami at 4-4.
I haven’t examined any scenarios involving Duke to this point, but all 5 of the scenarios involving 3 or 4 way ties with GT, Miami, BC, VT or NCSt all result in Miami winning the tiebreaker over GT. So UNC IS still mathematically alive.
Cards, please put the Hurricanes down this Saturday and make any further analysis completely unnecessary! Go CARDS!!
Last edited:
