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Win probability over LPT: 96.2%...

zipp

zipp

Elite Member
Jun 26, 2001
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To add a little outside perspective, ESPN's projection of our chances to win the LPT game has been in the high-90s all season. (Maybe it's declined 1-2% if a slapd!ck wants to claim another moral victory...)

LINK

So nothing much has changed in the last few weeks except LPT edging out hot-garbage football teams on a mid-major conference schedule...
 
zipp said:
To add a little outside perspective, ESPN's projection of our chances to win the LPT game has been in the high-90s all season. (Maybe it's declined 1-2% if a slapd!ck wants to claim another moral victory...)

LINK

So nothing much has changed in the last few weeks except LPT edging out hot-garbage football teams on a mid-major conference schedule...
Click to expand...
Call you Mr. Obvious! Let's see then since you are good with numbers. Has to be over 100% over wake and BC right since they are ranked lower than UK? And I guess VA shouldn't have showed up since they are ranked around #106?
 
If you can read and understand the link, it answers some of your questions.

[And try contributing something of substance to these threads. Or stalk me somewhere else. My email address is kzipperle@mail.com.]
 
Nice post Zipp. Thanks for the info.

I was trying to look to see earlier in the year how the Houston game had changed over time, but can't seem to find the earlier numbers.
 
nccardfan said:
Call you Mr. Obvious! Let's see then since you are good with numbers. Has to be over 100% over wake and BC right since they are ranked lower than UK? And I guess VA shouldn't have showed up since they are ranked around #106?
Click to expand...

Incorrect. BC (76) is ranked below UK (68), but the win probability for UofL over BC is lower than over UK because of where the games will be played.

And Wake Forest is 60th, so 8 spots ahead of UK in the FPI.
 
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PushupMan said:
Incorrect. BC (76) is ranked below UK (68), but the win probability for UofL over BC is lower than over UK because of where the games will be played.

And Wake Forest is 60th, so 8 spots ahead of UK in the FPI.
Click to expand...
Guess it depends on which rankings you look at. CBS sports has UK 57, Wake 60, NC State 68, BC 81 and VA 106.
 
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zipp said:
To add a little outside perspective, ESPN's projection of our chances to win the LPT game has been in the high-90s all season. (Maybe it's declined 1-2% if a slapd!ck wants to claim another moral victory...)

LINK

So nothing much has changed in the last few weeks except LPT edging out hot-garbage football teams on a mid-major conference schedule...
Click to expand...
psrez.jpg
 
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Morgantown Card said:
What a murderer's row. I thought we were going to get away from this crap once Louisville left the 'murican. The Big East was more stout than this. The ACC has great football at the top, but whoah it's quite a fall very quickly.
Click to expand...
Everything's relative. The schedule is better than it was, and it's obviously better than playing in the SEC Least.

BUT it does underscore the importance of scheduling good OOC teams. (Don't look at next year's OOC schedule!...)
 
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zipp said:
BUT it does underscore the importance of scheduling good OOC teams. (Don't look at next year's OOC schedule!...)
Click to expand...
And we are hearing the importance of that reiterated weekly in sports media.Hell, we got put into the hunt with the invite to this conference.The rest,including shoring up that OOC scheduling is up to us and it's moving strongly that way this season ,with the play ,and down the road with the scheduling.

I love it and it's good for college football to see these cross sectional P5s lining up against each other.
 
If we play like we did against VA, the UK game will not be easy. You can laugh about, but they are getting better.
 
When our team comes to play it is on a different level, something tells me that they will come to play against the pussycats.
 
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