Which conference will do the best in the tournament?

[71card]

Let's assume the committee did a perfect job in seeding. Having said that, here is a simple calculated prediction of how that question will be answered:
1.63 ACC - best
1.28 B12
0.96 BEast
0.83 $EC
0.73 B10
0.66 P12 - worst

The Big Twelve had the most teams - advantage
The ACC had the lowest average seed - advantage

The above results were calculated by dividing the number of teams by the average seed.

ACC - Duke 1, VA 2, ND 3, UL 4, NC 4, NC ST 8
B12 - KS 2, Baylor 3, OK 3, IA ST 3, WVU 5, OK ST 9, TX 11, NE 14
BEast Nova 1, G town 4, Prov. 6, Butler 6, Johnnies 9
$EC - KY 1, AR 5, MS ST 7, LSU 9, GA 10, MS 11
B10 - WI 1, MD 4, Purdue 9, IN 10, OSU 10
P12 - AZ 2, UT 5, OR 8, UCLA 11, WY 12

 

[Steelers2012]

I was told there would be no math involved in message board posting. However, your math makes perfect sense to me, without my giving it much thought.

 

[Cue Card]

Originally posted by 71card:
Let's assume the committee did a perfect job in seeding. Having said that, here is a simple calculated prediction of how that question will be answered:
1.63 ACC - best
1.28 B12
0.96 BEast
0.83 $EC
0.73 B10
0.66 P12 - worst

The Big Twelve had the most teams - advantage
The ACC had the lowest average seed - advantage

The above results were calculated by dividing the number of teams by the average seed.

ACC - Duke 1, VA 2, ND 3, UL 4, NC 4, NC ST 8
B12 - KS 2, Baylor 3, OK 3, IA ST 3, WVU 5, OK ST 9, TX 11, NE 14
BEast Nova 1, G town 4, Prov. 6, Butler 6, Johnnies 9
$EC - KY 1, AR 5, MS ST 7, LSU 9, GA 10, MS 11
B10 - WI 1, MD 4, Purdue 9, IN 10, OSU 10
P12 - AZ 2, UT 5, OR 8, UCLA 11, WY 12

Something is wrong. NE (Nebraska?) isn't in the B12. They are in the B1G now I do believe.

 

[71card]

Thanks, Cue. NE is Northeastern - not Nebraska - my bad. Here are the corrected numbers. Note that the correction does not change the premise.

1.63 ACC - best
1.36 B12
0.96 BEast
0.83 $EC
0.73 B10
0.66 P12 - worst

The Big Twelve had the most teams - advantage
The ACC had the lowest average seed - advantage

The above results were calculated by dividing the number of teams by the average seed.

ACC - Duke 1, VA 2, ND 3, UL 4, NC 4, NC ST 8
B12 - KS 2, Baylor 3, OK 3, IA ST 3, WVU 5, OK ST 9, TX 11
BEast Nova 1, G town 4, Prov. 6, Butler 6, Johnnies 9
$EC - KY 1, AR 5, MS ST 7, LSU 9, GA 10, MS 11
B10 - WI 1, MD 4, Purdue 9, IN 10, OSU 10
P12 - AZ 2, UT 5, OR 8, UCLA 11, WY 12

 

[OneEarWonder]

If you sort just by average seed, you get similar results...In Order:
ACCBig 12Big EastBig 10SECPAC 12
I guess the other question, is what is your criteria for success? Most wins? Highest Win %? Deepest Run?
I would venture the ACC will have the most wins and the highest %, but the SEC will have the deepest run.

 

[Steelers2012]

Originally posted by OneEarWonder:
If you sort just by average seed, you get similar results...In Order:


ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big 10
SEC
PAC 12
I guess the other question, is what is your criteria for success? Most wins? Highest Win %? Deepest Run?
I would venture the ACC will have the most wins and the highest %, but the SEC will have the deepest run.

I have to assume you mean that Kentucky will have the deepest run, which is a good bet. But I don't think the SEC as a conference will see much advancement, other than Kentucky and Arkansas. The rest of the conference are underdogs in the first round games.

 

[OneEarWonder]

Originally posted by Steelers2012:

I have to assume you mean that Kentucky will have the deepest run, which is a good bet. But I don't think the SEC as a conference will see much advancement, other than Kentucky and Arkansas. The rest of the conference are underdogs in the first round games.

Yes, correct. I don't expect the SEC to have a strong showing outside of KY. If you measure only depth of run, the measure is skewed by whatever team wins it all. This is ultimately why I think comparing conference success inside the tourney is pointless.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Originally posted by 71card:

P12 - AZ 2, UT 5, OR 8, UCLA 11, WY 12

Wyoming isn't in the P12.

I think the success will be spread across the board. There's a lot of parity.