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Where are we for 2018?

LeFors4Ever

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Now I made a doom and gloom thread last month, but I've calmed down and want to look at next season objectively. I just see a rough year ahead and there is no way to make it look better than what it is right now. The coaching staff as is has not proven they can make consistent adjustments.

So this is where we are at:

Offense:
-Passing/QB: We lose one of the greatest players in college history. Pass was highly rated and touted, we've heard good things in practice, but we just do not know for sure right now. Could Cunningham compete for the job? The one thing we know for sure? We know we will not be able to come close to replicating the production of the GOAT

-Rushing: Well we lost a 1,600 yard rusher in Lamar...but we also lose the next two leading rushers in Malik and Reggie. As of right now, we do not have a strong rushing attack and I worry about this area more than any on this side of the ball.

-Receivers: I actually feel really good here. We return our top 4 receivers and this could be a big help to a young QB. They have to get the drops under control. I will miss Stanberry though, was a solid target.

-The O Line: I think it will be better because it cannot get any worse. I will say, blocking for a QB like Lamar had to be hard and put a lot of pressure on them with his ability to extend plays and not know where he was going.

Defense:
We lose Young, Hearns, Richardson, Thomas, Alexander, Williams, and Washington. A lot of talent from an already bad unit. The coaching also does not inspire confidence either.




In summary:

We lose almost all of the production on an offense that carried the team and a lot of talent on a defense that was not very good to begin with, and it was an 8-5 team at that. I see 2019 being better if everyone returns, but 2018 looks like it could be one giant step back.
 
I don't know how good the defense will be but I look at it this way. The bad news is the Cards are losing 7 starters on that side. The good news is that the Cards are losing 7 starters on that side.
 
Receivers will be good. I would venture to say elite if Jaylen Smith returns. We have a lot of very athletic pass catchers returning. We just need to work on their focus to eliminate drops.

Running Back play will be about the same or better. I really liked Wilson and Williams when they got carries.

O-line: Improved a lot between 16 and 17. Looking for a big jump next year as well.

QB: More composed in the pocket from what i saw, not near as fast or elusive, but effective running the ball.

D-line: Couldn’t get any worse. So about the same with a whole new line.

Linebackers/Pass Rushers: probably taking a dip here losing Thomas and Hearns. Greenard and maybe Boykin can get after the QB. Not sure who replaces Thomas.

Secondary: Taking a step back because we lose Jaire but hopefully the guys stepping in are improved.

Conclusion: Rebuilding year 7-5 or 6-6 regular season. So average including bowl would be about 7-6.

2019 prediction: 10-2 we bring back everything. Hopefully that gets us to the ACC Championship game.
 
Well,.....if Card fans don't know what they have.....how in the heck can Bama know what the heck the Cards have coming back?

Hence, the element of surprise should be on the Cards side.

And when CBP has the whole summer to game plan for the opening game...he is a dangerous foe and so is his team......so there is that.

Maybe, half of Bama's upperclassmen will declare for the pros too.....that would help a little.....maybe. One could only hope.
 
Now I made a doom and gloom thread last month, but I've calmed down and want to look at next season objectively. I just see a rough year ahead and there is no way to make it look better than what it is right now. The coaching staff as is has not proven they can make consistent adjustments.

So this is where we are at:

Offense:
-Passing/QB: We lose one of the greatest players in college history. Pass was highly rated and touted, we've heard good things in practice, but we just do not know for sure right now. Could Cunningham compete for the job? The one thing we know for sure? We know we will not be able to come close to replicating the production of the GOAT

-Rushing: Well we lost a 1,600 yard rusher in Lamar...but we also lose the next two leading rushers in Malik and Reggie. As of right now, we do not have a strong rushing attack and I worry about this area more than any on this side of the ball.

-Receivers: I actually feel really good here. We return our top 4 receivers and this could be a big help to a young QB. They have to get the drops under control. I will miss Stanberry though, was a solid target.

-The O Line: I think it will be better because it cannot get any worse. I will say, blocking for a QB like Lamar had to be hard and put a lot of pressure on them with his ability to extend plays and not know where he was going.

Defense:
We lose Young, Hearns, Richardson, Thomas, Alexander, Williams, and Washington. A lot of talent from an already bad unit. The coaching also does not inspire confidence either.




In summary:

We lose almost all of the production on an offense that carried the team and a lot of talent on a defense that was not very good to begin with, and it was an 8-5 team at that. I see 2019 being better if everyone returns, but 2018 looks like it could be one giant step back.
Jeez, cheer up, will ya?
 
Well,.....if Card fans don't know what they have.....how in the heck can Bama know what the heck the Cards have coming back?

Hence, the element of surprise should be on the Cards side.

And when CBP has the whole summer to game plan for the opening game...he is a dangerous foe and so is his team......so there is that.

Maybe, half of Bama's upperclassmen will declare for the pros too.....that would help a little.....maybe. One could only hope.
Maybe if he wins the NC, Saban will retire. There’s that.
 
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As I see it will take a dip initially at QB. You’re ur not going to replace LJ and his running production. But what we lose there I hope we pick-up in the passing game. Pass is more accurate and what I heard is faster, but not as allusive. I’m good with Wilson and Williams. WR we’re good, O-line I hope we have improvement, but who knows.

In my mind the D is where all the real questions are. Sirmon needs to prove himself...big time.
 
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The loss of Geron to the OL hurts but the cupboard is not bare. Just hate to see us come out and cut our teeth playing Ala. We have a bunch of inexperienced players out there, but there is talent. Ì think the running game will be better with Wilson, Williams, Smith, and Hall. You don't replace Lamar's running but the OL should be a strength, though Geron hurts like hell. Lets hope for few injuries.
Receiving should set-up for good yrs with Dez, Seth. I srill suspect that Jaylen wants to come-out but his ball handling after the catch hurts him.
Jawon should do well, but disaappointed he didn't get more playing time, but injuries to running backs, Jaire, and a lack of depth on defense hurt.
 
As I see it will take a dip initially at QB. You’re ur not going to replace LJ and his running production. But what we lose there I hope we pick-up in the passing game. Pass is more accurate and what I heard is faster, but not as allusive. I’m good with Wilson and Williams. WR we’re good, O-line I hope we have improvement, but who knows.

In my mind the D is where all the real questions are. Sirmon needs to prove himself...big time.
By faster what do you mean? Didn’t Jawon get run down by a guy on a long run in the Murray or Kent State game? I anticipate Jawon being a better passer in his 2nd and 3rd seasons, but about on par with Lamar next year and an effective but maybe a 3rd of the production running the ball. If Jawon accounts for 3500 passing yards and 500 rushing yards we could have an 8-5 season on our hands. If he is more like 3000 passing and 250 running then we’ll probably be 7-6. The offense has to move the ball and be efficient for us to stay in or win games.
 
The only thing you can say with any confidence is they aren't beating Alabama or Clemson. The rest is pure speculation.

Offense
I think that side of the ball could be more efficient but not nearly as explosive. The offense will be more like Petrino's offense, less read option. There will still be some read option but not 65% of the offense. It is built to be more of a power offense. I look for better use of TE.

RB-Power backs in Wilson and Williams, i.e. Shelton/Bush
QB-We shall see, looks the part.
Oline-Just when you thought they would have a full unit back they lose 1 and possibly another. Better depth to handle but still not much experience behind those 2.

Defense
Who knows, too many new pieces to even project.

DT-I don't think they lose much on the interior line, the production wasn't there. Returning players are OK. No idea of incoming talent.
DE/OLB-The question is on the edge, while not great Hearns and Young produced. No real data to feel good or bad about the edge.
ILB-Thomas was a baller, no real experience build him or production...can Hicks jump right in? Is Blue an option.
Secondary-Will be better because it can't be worse. Alexander is a big loss.

Tough schedule with this many questions isn't a good place to be. Hope for 7 wins any above that be happy. I tend to agree look to 2019 as the year to be a player nationally. There should be much roster turnover in 2019.
 
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As I see it will take a dip initially at QB. You’re ur not going to replace LJ and his running production. But what we lose there I hope we pick-up in the passing game. Pass is more accurate and what I heard is faster, but not as allusive. I’m good with Wilson and Williams. WR we’re good, O-line I hope we have improvement, but who knows.

In my mind the D is where all the real questions are. Sirmon needs to prove himself...big time.
By faster what do you mean? Didn’t Jawon get run down by a guy on a long run in the Murray or Kent State game? I anticipate Jawon being a better passer in his 2nd and 3rd seasons, but about on par with Lamar next year and an effective but maybe a 3rd of the production running the ball. If Jawon accounts for 3500 passing yards and 500 rushing yards we could have an 8-5 season on our hands. If he is more like 3000 passing and 250 running then we’ll probably be 7-6. The offense has to move the ball and be efficient for us to stay in or win games.

He has a better time in a sprint, but as I stated he isn’t as allusive as LJ. I questioned that also but that was put out by UofL. And I’m sure he doesn’t accelerate as quick. We’re talking fractions.

The numbers you state are based on plugging Pass in and playing him like LJ, which he will not. You’re not considering the production of the RB which should all be better. And if (big if) the O-line can protect the QB then Pass will have the time to capitalize on his skill which is passing. And I suspect he’ll be a better passer in his first season if the O-line does there part. Pass is more accurate then LJ, that’s a fact. That’s his game.

I don’t expect Pass to run like LJ but as he showed he is capable. I would expect with our schedule to see a 7-5 or 8-4 record next year, but that’s more due to our D play and playing both Bama, ND, and along with Clemson. That’s 3 losses. Will probably drop at least one more. IMO people are going to be very impressed with Pass once he gets past Bama. 2019 should be a great year.
 
He has a better time in a sprint, but as I stated he isn’t as allusive as LJ. I questioned that also but that was put out by UofL. And I’m sure he doesn’t accelerate as quick. We’re talking fractions.

The numbers you state are based on plugging Pass in and playing him like LJ, which he will not. You’re not considering the production of the RB which should all be better. And if (big if) the O-line can protect the QB then Pass will have the time to capitalize on his skill which is passing. And I suspect he’ll be a better passer in his first season if the O-line does there part. Pass is more accurate then LJ, that’s a fact. That’s his game.

I don’t expect Pass to run like LJ but as he showed he is capable. I would expect with our schedule to see a 7-5 or 8-4 record next year, but that’s more due to our D play and playing both Bama, ND, and along with Clemson. That’s 3 losses. Will probably drop at least one more. IMO people are going to be very impressed with Pass once he gets past Bama. 2019 should be a great year.
We don’t play ND next year. And I don’t think we’ll play pass like LJ. But we will have probably 5-10 designed QB runs every game. So if he averages 7 carries a game it would be about 6 yards a carry to get to 500 yds. Which is reasonable for a QB average because of the element of surprise and scrambles. I also agree that Pass will be a pleasant surprise for many. I’ve also been of the opinion that 2019 is the year we contend for the ACC championship again.
 
So this is where we are at:

.

Got to admit, I'm not sure if you're a troll or not. I thought you were, but maybe you're just a guy with unreasonable expectations for the program. Spare us the lectures about the rest of us accepting less, some people just prefer to live in reality instead of fantasy land.

If you want to realistically talk about "Where UofL is at" - UofL is a fringe T25 program that has had ups and downs like any other program that is not elite.

This year they were closer to the 40-50 range.

Oh no I am so upset that a few more teams were better. I do not want to accept this any more!

8 wins for UofL football is not a horrible year. It just isn't. It's a good year for most teams that aren't elite. This program is not recruiting in the T10, and never has.

So quit pretending the program is under performing when it doesn't reach the great heights you claim you expect.

Next year might be a step down from 8 wins, or it could be more of he same as this year, or yes even worse.

They aren't Alabama.

It's way too early to know.

Either way, we know you're delusional in regards to what UofL football is or should be. Which is why you come off as a troll.
 
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Got to admit, I'm not sure if you're a troll or not. I thought you were, but maybe you're just a guy with unreasonable expectations for the program. Spare us the lectures about the rest of us accepting less, some people just prefer to live in reality instead of fantasy land.

If you want to realistically talk about "Where UofL is at" - UofL is a fringe T25 program that has had ups and downs like any other program that is not elite.

This year they were closer to the 40-50 range.

Oh no I am so upset that a few more teams were better. I do not want to accept this any more!

8 wins for UofL football is not a horrible year. It just isn't. It's a good year for most teams that aren't elite. This program is not recruiting in the T10, and never has.

So quit pretending the program is under performing when it doesn't reach the great heights you claim you expect.

Next year might be a step down from 8 wins, or it could be more of he same as this year, or yes even worse.

They aren't Alabama.

It's way too early to know.

Either way, we know you're delusional in regards to what UofL football is or should be. Which is why you come off as a troll.

We lose 7 Defensive Starters...Losing 2 Starting OL and the best College Football QB this decade...it going to be a grind to get to 6 wins even if Jawon is as good as many think he is...
 
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He has a better time in a sprint, but as I stated he isn’t as allusive as LJ. I questioned that also but that was put out by UofL. And I’m sure he doesn’t accelerate as quick. We’re talking fractions.

The numbers you state are based on plugging Pass in and playing him like LJ, which he will not. You’re not considering the production of the RB which should all be better. And if (big if) the O-line can protect the QB then Pass will have the time to capitalize on his skill which is passing. And I suspect he’ll be a better passer in his first season if the O-line does there part. Pass is more accurate then LJ, that’s a fact. That’s his game.

I don’t expect Pass to run like LJ but as he showed he is capable. I would expect with our schedule to see a 7-5 or 8-4 record next year, but that’s more due to our D play and playing both Bama, ND, and along with Clemson. That’s 3 losses. Will probably drop at least one more. IMO people are going to be very impressed with Pass once he gets past Bama. 2019 should be a great year.
We don’t play ND next year. And I don’t think we’ll play pass like LJ. But we will have probably 5-10 designed QB runs every game. So if he averages 7 carries a game it would be about 6 yards a carry to get to 500 yds. Which is reasonable for a QB average because of the element of surprise and scrambles. I also agree that Pass will be a pleasant surprise for many. I’ve also been of the opinion that 2019 is the year we contend for the ACC championship again.

Yep you’re right. We play ND in 2019, thought it was next year. That should help.
 
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Yep you’re right. We play ND in 2019, thought it was next year. That should help.
I believe we are a couple of years away. Our talent with the last two recruiting classes, particularly both lines, is better yet very young. Liking 2019 and 2020, a bowl game next season will be terrific.
 
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Yep you’re right. We play ND in 2019, thought it was next year. That should help.
I believe we are a couple of years away. Our talent with the last two recruiting classes, particularly both lines, is better yet very young. Liking 2019 and 2020, a bowl game next season will be terrific.

I agree. I stated 2019 in an earlier comment.
 
9-3 at best and 7-5 at worst. As usual, our football fans fail to realize the talent we have ready to step in and the transfers that sat out this year. As we continue to recruit well and put up 8 to 10 win seasons, our football fan base will become more knowledgeable.
 
9-3 at best and 7-5 at worst. As usual, our football fans fail to realize the talent we have ready to step in and the transfers that sat out this year. As we continue to recruit well and put up 8 to 10 win seasons, our football fan base will become more knowledgeable.

Ok except CBP used the words Rebuilding year for 2018. So we may have talent but they lack experience. When it comes to line play it’s all about size, speed, and experience. Of course talent too.
 
To make a prediction I'd say that you also have to consider what other teams have coming back:

I'll just consider the teams we lost to:

Clemson - loses their D-line but will replace them. Returns a lot of skill players. Talent-level stays the same

BC - Loses an All-American d lineman and a decent number of other defensive players. They lose half their o-line starters. They return their awesome running back and their end of the season QB. Slight drop in talent.

Wake Forest - they return damn near everyone on offense EXCEPT their QB. They lose about 4 seniors on defense plus a safety that is turning pro. I think they will be a trendy ACC Atlantic pick (kind of like NC State this past season). Increase in talent.

NC State - they return their QB Finley which was a surprise. However their lose their great playmaker Samuels. Plus they lose damn near everyone on defense (their entire d-line which includes top 5 pick Chubb). Big Drop in talent.

Bama (neutral) - Loss
Clemson (away) - Loss
FSU (home) - toss up
Wake Forest (home) - possible loss
BC (away) - toss up
NC State (home) - possible win
UVA (away) - possible win
Cuse (away) - possible win
GA Tech (home) - toss up
UK (home) - Win
WKU (home) - Win
Ind State (home) - Win

I'd set the over/under on wins at 7.5. I think 8 wins with this schedule would be great. I think 7-5 is more realistic given the change at QB and the continued uncertainty at d-coordinator.
 
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Ok except CBP used the words Rebuilding year for 2018.
To me, this statement is problematic to have a coach, in his 5th year, is rebuilding.

From what? 8-5?

To what? 9-4?

I thought we’d been building for four years. Silly me.

I’m slowly starting to wrap my head around the fact that where we are, is where we are destined to be most years.

We wanted the ACC, and I wouldn’t trade it for anything. But in all the years of getting here I never thought one time about just being “also ran” in the league.

But with TJ gone, our current leadership saying athletics is over blown, having to try to get leftover recruits, and a coach who couldn’t care less about defense, I’d say we are what we are.

It’s been fun, and I’ll be there still, but my expectations have chilled. Maybe, just maybe, it won’t drive me crazy anymore. Yeah, right.
 
Does anyone have a link where CBP said next season would be a "rebuilding year"? That doesn't sound like anything he would ever say, but I could be wrong.

Or, is this kind of like the time Postel said he was going to "deemphasize athletics" (which he never actually said, by the way).
 
He has a better time in a sprint, but as I stated he isn’t as allusive as LJ. I questioned that also but that was put out by UofL. And I’m sure he doesn’t accelerate as quick. We’re talking fractions.

The numbers you state are based on plugging Pass in and playing him like LJ, which he will not. You’re not considering the production of the RB which should all be better. And if (big if) the O-line can protect the QB then Pass will have the time to capitalize on his skill which is passing. And I suspect he’ll be a better passer in his first season if the O-line does there part. Pass is more accurate then LJ, that’s a fact. That’s his game.

I don’t expect Pass to run like LJ but as he showed he is capable. I would expect with our schedule to see a 7-5 or 8-4 record next year, but that’s more due to our D play and playing both Bama, ND, and along with Clemson. That’s 3 losses. Will probably drop at least one more. IMO people are going to be very impressed with Pass once he gets past Bama. 2019 should be a great year.
Elusive
 
To make a prediction I'd say that you also have to consider what other teams have coming back:

I'll just consider the teams we lost to:

Clemson - loses their D-line but will replace them. Returns a lot of skill players. Talent-level stays the same

BC - Loses an All-American d lineman and a decent number of other defensive players. They lose half their o-line starters. They return their awesome running back and their end of the season QB. Slight drop in talent.

Wake Forest - they return damn near everyone on offense EXCEPT their QB. They lose about 4 seniors on defense plus a safety that is turning pro. I think they will be a trendy ACC Atlantic pick (kind of like NC State this past season). Increase in talent.

NC State - they return their QB Finley which was a surprise. However their lose their great playmaker Samuels. Plus they lose damn near everyone on defense (their entire d-line which includes top 5 pick Chubb). Big Drop in talent.

Bama (neutral) - Loss
Clemson (away) - Loss
FSU (home) - toss up
Wake Forest (home) - possible loss
BC (away) - toss up
NC State (home) - possible win
UVA (away) - possible win
Cuse (away) - possible win
GA Tech (home) - toss up
UK (home) - Win
WKU (home) - Win
Ind State (home) - Win

I'd set the over/under on wins at 7.5. I think 8 wins with this schedule would be great. I think 7-5 is more realistic given the change at QB and the continued uncertainty at d-coordinator.
Good assessment. Doesn’t wake lose their workhorse RB Colburn though as well as very solid TE Seringe or whatever his name is? I think they take a further step back than you think, but other than that I’m in agreement on everything. 8 wins should be the goal and 7 should be the expectation.
 
Transfers to take lead roles in the secondary. Alot of young talent and personalities to gel together on defense. I'm curious to see who steps up as leaders on the defense. I expect Jonathan Greenard to take a step forward as defensive Captain. It will also be interesting to see if he plays as DE or Linebacker. If were struggling to get pressure on the qb then he plays heavily on the line. Maybe GG steps up but just have to wait and see. Dee Smith should be counted on to lead more. It will be about our Defense next year under Sirmon.
 
Good assessment. Doesn’t wake lose their workhorse RB Colburn though as well as very solid TE Seringe or whatever his name is? I think they take a further step back than you think, but other than that I’m in agreement on everything. 8 wins should be the goal and 7 should be the expectation.

Colburn was a redshirt junior. I do think they lose their TE. They will also get back the young stud receiver Dortch who got injured at the end of our game after he torched us.
 
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Probably the game that scares me the most is the GaTech game. Watching BC and Benny Snell rush for ungodly amounts makes me concerned what the Jackets will do. To beat them you have to play very good assignment defense and be strong tacklers. Neither of which Peter Sirmon seems to have stressed with the team.
 
Probably the game that scares me the most is the GaTech game. Watching BC and Benny Snell rush for ungodly amounts makes me concerned what the Jackets will do. To beat them you have to play very good assignment defense and be strong tacklers. Neither of which Peter Sirmon seems to have stressed with the team.
Something tells me we will be stronger up front with all of the guys we are bringing in. And Robert Hicks struck me as a very intelligent, instinctual assignment linebacker in the UA game. Hoping the new recruits challenge for and either win spots or light a fire under the older guys.
 
That's the kind of year I'm expecting. I'm hoping we end up in the 6-8 win range. Winning 8 games would be a major accomplishment.

Exactly....we are a Good Solid Top 25 To 30 Program...no different than Michigan State-(and they had a horrible 2016 season and bounced back this past year)...those that expect a “Reload” just are not living in reality...tough schedule and I’m dreading the Georgia Tech game...Paul Johnson Triple Option vs Peter Sirmon...oh boy...
 
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Neither of which Bobby will let Peter Sirmon stress with the team.

Fixed it for you.

Defense is, was, and always will be (IMO) a bothersome detail for Bobby.

I will gladly accept all the names you experts will call me if I’m wrong. I’ve never wanted to be wrong more in my life.

But I’ll have to see it with my own lying eyes.
 
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Exactly....we are a Good Solid Top 25 To 30 Program...no different than Michigan State-(and they had a horrible 2016 season and bounced back this past year)...those that expect a “Reload” just are not living in reality...tough schedule and I’m dreading the Georgia Tech game...Paul Johnson Triple Option vs Peter Sirmon...oh boy...

Indeed, many of today's young coaches never played a down against the triple option or played assignment football. If you do not have strong defensive ends and linebackers the triple offense will own you. You better understand all the threats of the triple options offense:

the dive
the belly
roll out
the pitch
Roll out pass
End around reverse
flanker around
double reverse

and the list goes on. Are they running it as the wing T, I, Veer or pro set. And when they force you to have 8 men in the box, they will throw deep from the play action or screen you.
 
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Indeed, many of today's young coaches never played a down against the triple option or played assignment football. If you do not have strong defensive ends and linebackers the triple offense will own you. You better understand all the threats of the triple options offense:

the dive
the belly
roll out
the pitch
Roll out pass
End around reverse
flanker around
double reverse

and the list goes on. Are they running it as the wing T, I, Veer or pro set. And when the force you to have 8 men in the box, the throw deep from the play action or screen you.

Back when I played (I played a rover/safety), I thought the triple option was easy to defend. Literally if you play your assignment and make a good tackle it will do nothing (of course I was kind of slow so I tended to not over-pursue the ball or fly out of position)
 
Back when I played (I played a rover/safety), I thought the triple option was easy to defend. Literally if you play your assignment and make a good tackle it will do nothing (of course I was kind of slow so I tended to not over-pursue the ball or fly out of position)

You played it correctly by not over pursuing and just doing your assignment. To work all the other 10 must do as you did. I played the rover (we called it the monster), I also played the strong safety, cornerback and middle linebacker.
 
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