Wake is favored by 7.

[TheRealVille]

I just don't get this line. I swear there is some very biased odds makers or they're just lazy. Wake has two wins over cupcake city. Old Dominion and Norfolk state.

Louisville has just one. Wake beat a Virginia team who hasn't beaten a good team yet and Illinois is their best win. The Cards on the other hand beat a UCF team that had beaten Boise State and was like #27 in polls.

Louisville has played the only ranked team Ole Miss. The Demon Deacons were playing a sun belt team while the Cards took on the high scoring Rebels.

And of course, both just beat FSU. Wake was at home and it took 6 turnovers by the Seminoles while UofL won on the road and FSU had zero turnovers.

So why is there such a large line? Louisville even beat WF last season in a rout. I was expecting 3 but 7 is just plain disrespect. I guess we'll see but I won't be surprised if that line moves down a few points by Saturday.

 

[SpotHogCard]

I just don't get this line. I swear there is some very biased odds makers or they're just lazy. Wake has two wins over cupcake city. Old Dominion and Norfolk state.

Louisville has just one. Wake beat a Virginia team who hasn't beaten a good team yet and Illinois is their best win. The Cards on the other hand beat a UCF team that had beaten Boise State and was like #27 in polls.

Louisville has played the only ranked team Ole Miss. The Demon Deacons were playing a sun belt team while the Cards took on the high scoring Rebels.

And of course, both just beat FSU. Wake was at home and it took 6 turnovers by the Seminoles while UofL won on the road and FSU had zero turnovers.

So why is there such a large line? Louisville even beat WF last season in a rout. I was expecting 3 but 7 is just plain disrespect. I guess we'll see but I won't be surprised if that line moves down a few points by Saturday.

WF also beat FSU

 

[Morgantown Card]

So why is there such a large line? Louisville even beat WF last season in a rout. I was expecting 3 but 7 is just plain disrespect. I guess we'll see but I won't be surprised if that line moves down a few points by Saturday.

My guess the reason is the blowout loss vs Ole Miss, the uninspired win over EKU, and the 2nd half of FSU. The win over the "2018 National Champions" UCF is decent but they're a G5 team and for better or worse the win over now 0-4 FSU probably has more weight. So, across 4 games, you have a game and a half where the Cards look decent and it took insane interceptions at the end to win those games. This is probably why.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

We played FSU and they played FSU. They dominated and we were in a tight game until the last drive. And just because UVA's 2 wins were blowouts against bad teams doesn't mean Wake blowing out UVA isn't a strong win.

Wake has pretty well handled every team they've played. They're scoring points and play great defense. Balanced on both sides. We easily can win and they are not special, but they clearly have the better resume at the moment.

 

[PushupMan]

Sagarin:
Wake Forest 80.35
Louisville 74.22
Home field: 2.77

Based on this, WF would be a 8.9 point favorite.

Sagarin does acknowledge that UofL has played the tougher schedule: UofL’s is ranked 45th while WF’s schedule is 141 (includes FCS schools).

Wake did get two high profile B10 transfers since last year: a running back from Michigan and a WR from Illinois.

 

[CardX]

I haven't watched WF play, so I don't know how good they are. But, regardless who they played, they are undefeated, ranked, and playing at home. They are playing a Cards team with notable injuries, and who are very fortunate to be 3-1. Cards could easily be 1-3. Plus, even though the defense has come up big the last two games when needed, that unit ranks 97th nationally. But, absolutely, the Cards should feel disrespected. I hope Satt uses it for motivation. The line is down to -6.5, fwiw.

 

[2330859]

6 TOs beat FSU; that explains the large score differential. Not to take away anything from the Deacons, but FSU played a lot more disciplined against UL than they did against WF.

UL gained a lot from the Ole Miss loss and the bounce back effort at home against UCF.

 

[TheRealVille]

6 TOs beat FSU; that explains the large score differential. Not to take away anything from the Deacons, but FSU played a lot more disciplined against UL than they did against WF.

UL gained a lot from the Ole Miss loss and the bounce back effort at home against UCF.

Exactly!

Odds makers are not going by each little nugget of both teams results. They're just buying into the media hype over WF. With both Clemson and UNC faltering, they're trying to find a ACC top dog.

Louisville's opening loss to Ole Miss is still on their minds despite the Cards winning three in a roll since. I think it's just laziness in the sense that they pick a number based on computer rankings.

Wake's best win is over Virginia. Their win over FSU definitely means less now than it did then. They are no doubt better than they usually are, but I don't see a seven point line over a Louisville team who has played two teams much better than any of Wake's opponents.

 

[kypecos]

Well then, OP should take the points and place a large bet. That'll show them.

 

[TheRealVille]

Oh believe me I know. Sure things are a killer when you're betting. I did collect a little last week with the ridiculous FSU line. People just couldn't accept FSU isn't very good despite all that talent.

 

[glassmanJ]

they're 4-0, they've scored 42, 41, 35 and 37 while not giving up more than 17. we got our butts kicked in game one and only did well once we were down 26, beat a non div 1 schoo in game 2l, got miraculously lucky and won game 3, and barely hung on after leading by 24 in game 4 and didn;t score after half. and we're supposed to be favorites? we should be 10 point dogs

 

[2330859]

Glassman:

your reference to the UL vs. Ole Miss game is interesting, but I would caution using it when making a comparison about WF and UL. When examining the opponents of both UL and WF, the Rebels distinguish themselves well above any of the others opponents that either WF or UL have faced thus far.

While I am no fan of the SEC, it is becoming increasingly clear that Alabama and Georgia are in very elite positions of college football, and I expect that Ole Miss, Florida and Arkansas may enter into that same category.

As embarrassing as the 1st half was for UL, our 2nd half offensive performance should not be minimized. Ole Miss defense in 2020 was horrible, but some of the key transfers they brought in have filled some of the obvious weaknesses. This weekend should tell us much more about the quality of this Ole Miss football team.

 

[CardsFirst]

6 TOs beat FSU; that explains the large score differential. Not to take away anything from the Deacons, but FSU played a lot more disciplined against UL than they did against WF.

UL gained a lot from the Ole Miss loss and the bounce back effort at home against UCF.

FSU also played at home when we played them. Obviously FSU plays better at home.
What I’ve seen when I watched WF is a well disciplined team. Hartman has a good arm and he’s very accurate. He’s also started running, but he doesn’t move like MC not even close. More like a fast turtle. They’ll be a challenge no doubt about it.

 

[TheRealVille]

they're 4-0, they've scored 42, 41, 35 and 37 while not giving up more than 17. we got our butts kicked in game one and only did well once we were down 26, beat a non div 1 schoo in game 2l, got miraculously lucky and won game 3, and barely hung on after leading by 24 in game 4 and didn;t score after half. and we're supposed to be favorites? we should be 10 point dogs

No one said the Cards should be favored and you apparently don't have much of a grasp of the game of football.

Wake scoring 40 + against Old Dominion and Norfolk State means something to you? You think Louisville would have done the same? How about the Cards only giving up 3 points to its FCS opponent EKU?

Has WF played a team as good as Ole Miss? You believe the Rebels wouldn't score more than 17 against WF?

Of the miracle against UCF, wasn't the INT by UCF on a batted pass the play before just as much a miracle? Would UCF call that a miracle win had they returned the INT for a score?

Again, WF hasn't played a team yet as good as UCF, so the Cards have faced the better teams, having actually defeated one of them as 7 point dogs. I'm sure you thought the Cards should have been 14 point dogs?

And finally, the Cards beat FSU on the road against a team that was desperate for a win who didn't turn the ball over like they did 6 times on the road at WF.

Both teams have played 4 games with only one loss. That was the Cards against the current 12th ranked team. WF has played 2 cupcakes, the Cards just one. Both have beaten FSU. Cards best win is against UCF and Wake's is against Virginia. Seems to me the teams are close like maybe a 2 or 3 point line for the home team.

I think its pretty obvious that the Cards are more than capable of beating WF and winning would only be a mild upset. The notion that the Cards should be 10 point underdogs bring in the perception you're not a Louisville fan or just one who has some kind of agenda.

WF may kick our ass, then again it could come down to the wire. Anything is possible, but the 7 point spread is BS and I believe we will see just why this weekend.

 

[SpotHogCard]

No one said the Cards should be favored and you apparently don't have much of a grasp of the game of football.

Wake scoring 40 + against Old Dominion and Norfolk State means something to you? You think Louisville would have done the same? How about the Cards only giving up 3 points to its FCS opponent EKU?

Has WF played a team as good as Ole Miss? You believe the Rebels wouldn't score more than 17 against WF?

Of the miracle against UCF, wasn't the INT by UCF on a batted pass the play before just as much a miracle? Would UCF call that a miracle win had they returned the INT for a score?

Again, WF hasn't played a team yet as good as UCF, so the Cards have faced the better teams, having actually defeated one of them as 7 point dogs. I'm sure you thought the Cards should have been 14 point dogs?

And finally, the Cards beat FSU on the road against a team that was desperate for a win who didn't turn the ball over like they did 6 times on the road at WF.

Both teams have played 4 games with only one loss. That was the Cards against the current 12th ranked team. WF has played 2 cupcakes, the Cards just one. Both have beaten FSU. Cards best win is against UCF and Wake's is against Virginia. Seems to me the teams are close like maybe a 2 or 3 point line for the home team.

I think its pretty obvious that the Cards are more than capable of beating WF and winning would only be a mild upset. The notion that the Cards should be 10 point underdogs bring in the perception you're not a Louisville fan or just one who has some kind of agenda.

WF may kick our ass, then again it could come down to the wire. Anything is possible, but the 7 point spread is BS and I believe we will see just why this weekend.

I think the spread will drop a little. Vegas loves to play both ends of the stick to even out the money....

 

[LeFors4Ever]

No one said the Cards should be favored and you apparently don't have much of a grasp of the game of football.

Wake scoring 40 + against Old Dominion and Norfolk State means something to you? You think Louisville would have done the same? How about the Cards only giving up 3 points to its FCS opponent EKU?

Has WF played a team as good as Ole Miss? You believe the Rebels wouldn't score more than 17 against WF?

Of the miracle against UCF, wasn't the INT by UCF on a batted pass the play before just as much a miracle? Would UCF call that a miracle win had they returned the INT for a score?

Again, WF hasn't played a team yet as good as UCF, so the Cards have faced the better teams, having actually defeated one of them as 7 point dogs. I'm sure you thought the Cards should have been 14 point dogs?

And finally, the Cards beat FSU on the road against a team that was desperate for a win who didn't turn the ball over like they did 6 times on the road at WF.

Both teams have played 4 games with only one loss. That was the Cards against the current 12th ranked team. WF has played 2 cupcakes, the Cards just one. Both have beaten FSU. Cards best win is against UCF and Wake's is against Virginia. Seems to me the teams are close like maybe a 2 or 3 point line for the home team.

I think its pretty obvious that the Cards are more than capable of beating WF and winning would only be a mild upset. The notion that the Cards should be 10 point underdogs bring in the perception you're not a Louisville fan or just one who has some kind of agenda.

WF may kick our ass, then again it could come down to the wire. Anything is possible, but the 7 point spread is BS and I believe we will see just why this weekend.

All of those things matter, but they didn't build those Casinos out in Vegas out of sand. $$$$$

They aren't always right, but gamblers aren't biased folks. They aren't lazy when it comes to money. Anything can happen, but the market says WF -7. The people betting that game aren't UL or WF fans. It isn't some conspiracy or just bias against us, it's money. It's business.

It's an imperfect science, they can't predict the future, but they're going by what they think. We view things from the best possible scenario as your post indicates. If we were Wake Forrest fans we'd view things from the best scenario from their point of view. I'm a football gambler, not very good lol, but I watch a lot of football and look at a lot of numbers. The people making those lines do watch the games and crunch numbers, they didn't just make a line by just guessing. With millions involved in bets every single day, they have a staff and have paid football experts watching games.

This isn't college gameday with Corso making a pick with headgear, these are unbiased people with money on the line. The line usually is what we deserve. Now it can be wrong because a line cannot predict human behavior and something crazy can happen, but this is where the money is going right now. It's on our Cards to change perception.

 

[Rollem Cards]

They (the book) study long and hard to come up with a number that makes the teams “even”.

Then the bettors make it what it is at KO. More on one team or the other and the Book changes the line up or down to push money the other way.

All the book hopes is that 51% are wrong.

It is uncanny how close they get on many games

 

[TheRealVille]

Of course it's about money when these lines are set, but odds makers are human beings and people get influenced by virtually anything.

The point of my post is I don't understand how this line was set a 7 with everything that is known about both of these teams. I think laziness and not some bias is the reason.

It's like doing the blind resumes of two teams the media does before March madness. Looking at the numbers, including the schedules, the home team would normally be a small favorite. But here it's 7 points.

I think these experts could be influenced by their perception of the teams beyond the numbers. WF is a trendy team in a wide open conference now that Clemson is beatable. It's a nice story just like it was all those years ago when they played Louisville in the Orange bowl.

Louisville on the other hand didn't have much expectations this season by the so called experts. They were way off giving the Cards 7 points against UCF. Then they barely made UofL a favorite over winless FSU.

So the experts have been way off in Louisville's last two games and I think this line against WF is just as off.

 

[PushupMan]

I just gave you a computer model that has WF as almost a 9 point favorite, so I don’t see why a 7 point line is so ridiculous.

People sometimes put too much emphasis on who you’ve played. Nobody from any of the 7 teams that Louisville and Wake Forest have played so far will be on the field Saturday afternoon.

The one common opponent we have played lost to Wake Forest by 20 and to us by 8. In both cases, those are recent contests, and the margins in those games result in a 12 point differential. Give the home team in both of those contests 3 points for their home field advantage, and the differential shrinks to 6.

So Sagarin suggests 8.9, our one common opponent suggests 6 (or maybe more or less, depending on how much you give for home field advantage).

Let’s hope the team is as pissed off about that +7 as you are, and that we use it for motivation to get an important win!

 

[LeFors4Ever]

Of course it's about money when these lines are set, but odds makers are human beings and people get influenced by virtually anything.

The point of my post is I don't understand how this line was set a 7 with everything that is known about both of these teams. I think laziness and not some bias is the reason.

It's like doing the blind resumes of two teams the media does before March madness. Looking at the numbers, including the schedules, the home team would normally be a small favorite. But here it's 7 points.

I think these experts could be influenced by their perception of the teams beyond the numbers. WF is a trendy team in a wide open conference now that Clemson is beatable. It's a nice story just like it was all those years ago when they played Louisville in the Orange bowl.

Louisville on the other hand didn't have much expectations this season by the so called experts. They were way off giving the Cards 7 points against UCF. Then they barely made UofL a favorite over winless FSU.

So the experts have been way off in Louisville's last two games and I think this line against WF is just as off.

But that's from a Louisville fan who has watched all 4 Louisville games perspective. If you asked the average joe in Philadelphia who loves college football and keeps up with most everything? He'd think it was a fair line.

We tend to think any time we aren't picked for something that it's a slight or disrespect, but generally it's not that big of a deal. I mean people were saying the same thing about how Ole Miss was $EC bias and how could the line be so big and no way it should be a blowout. They had a point.

But again, when money is involved they aren't going to be lazy. If it was a bad spread, then why did the line move the way it did? It opened at Wake -6.5 and moved to Wake -7.5 and now back to -6.5. If it was so lazy and biased, then there would've been a huge move to put money on UofL. Maybe the odds and line makers could be lazy or miss something, but all that money that comes in? That's the free market. They aren't moving it other than towards Wake bigger, because the market seems to be thinking Wake right now. Louisville fans may think different, but the market is unbiased.

And besides, ITS A NUMBER. We can still win the game and we probably have a GREAT chance to win the game in all honesty. Let us be underdogs and win, I'm all for it.

 

[billoliver40]

Lol....no clue. I pick up a little on UofL from you guys, I know nothing about the Demon Deacons.
Should be a good game. Everybody saddle up.

 

[TheRealVille]

I just gave you a computer model that has WF as almost a 9 point favorite, so I don’t see why a 7 point line is so ridiculous.

People sometimes put too much emphasis on who you’ve played. Nobody from any of the 7 teams that Louisville and Wake Forest have played so far will be on the field Saturday afternoon.

The one common opponent we have played lost to Wake Forest by 20 and to us by 8. In both cases, those are recent contests, and the margins in those games result in a 12 point differential. Give the home team in both of those contests 3 points for their home field advantage, and the differential shrinks to 6.

So Sagarin suggests 8.9, our one common opponent suggests 6 (or maybe more or less, depending on how much you give for home field advantage).

Let’s hope the team is as pissed off about that +7 as you are, and that we use it for motivation to get an important win!

Well I'm sorry if I don't agree with the computer models which were just as wrong with the UCF game as the FSU game. You may look at them as gospel, I don't. It's just my opinion seven points is too many. I could be wrong. Won't be the first time.

 

[PushupMan]

Well I'm sorry if I don't agree with the computer models which were just as wrong with the UCF game as the FSU game. You may look at them as gospel, I don't. It's just my opinion seven points is too many. I could be wrong. Won't be the first time.

I don’t take them for gospel nor do I think that they are always correct. In fact, significant injuries to key players can make them flat out wrong, They are just unbiased, which makes them an ideal way to judge whether or not a Vegas line is reasonable.

 

[SpotHogCard]

FSU also played at home when we played them. Obviously FSU plays better at home.
What I’ve seen when I watched WF is a well disciplined team. Hartman has a good arm and he’s very accurate. He’s also started running, but he doesn’t move like MC not even close. More like a fast turtle. They’ll be a challenge no doubt about it.

Lol @ fast turtle

 

[TheRealVille]

Here's one for you. Syracuse at FSU this Saturday. Despite being 0 and 4, the Noles are 4.5 favorites over a 3 and 1 Syracuse squad.

Now how does this make any sense? Does anyone really believe a 0 and 4 Louisville team would be favored over ANY 3 win power 5 team?

 

[Morgantown Card]

they're 4-0, they've scored 42, 41, 35 and 37 while not giving up more than 17. we got our butts kicked in game one and only did well once we were down 26, beat a non div 1 schoo in game 2l, got miraculously lucky and won game 3, and barely hung on after leading by 24 in game 4 and didn;t score after half. and we're supposed to be favorites? we should be 10 point dogs

This is where I'm at. I've enjoyed the hell out of the last two games and being 3-1 especially after the Ole Miss disaster (I saw 2-10 at best after EKU) but I'm not ready to pissed off about point spreads on the road against an undefeated ranked opponent that is just obliterating everyone they play so far.

 

[Morgantown Card]

Related, Ole Miss is going to get spanked like Katina Powel for $5 on a Tuesday afternoon. No way Saban loses to Lane Kiffin or even lets it be a possibility after the first quarter. Saban probably has assistants amped up on No-Doz all week, studying film and scheming for the emasculation of Lane Kiffin on national television. Saban will probably have Layla on his sideline, wearing 9 inch heels and Bama gear.

 

[2330859]

Vegas only sets the spread; it’s those wagering that affects the spread. The FSU spread is a perfect example; someone loaded up on FSU the day before the UL game, and it brought the spread down several points.

Alabama is ……. well, they are just Alabama. I will not be surprised to see Ole Miss score a lot of points and still lose, but it should not depreciate just how good the Rebels are in terms of the rest of college football.

With that said, it will not be about Saban over Kiffin; but rather the talent level of the 85 players on the Alabama side that represents the Tide’s edge. Give Kiffin the Tide’s players and Ole Miss wins big.

 

[TheRealVille]

This is where I'm at. I've enjoyed the hell out of the last two games and being 3-1 especially after the Ole Miss disaster (I saw 2-10 at best after EKU) but I'm not ready to pissed off about point spreads on the road against an undefeated ranked opponent that is just obliterating everyone they play so far.

Well, that's the thing. I wouldn't call WF wins obliterating at all. Do you consider the Cards 30 to 3 win over EKU obliterating?

The Demon Deacons got 6 turnovers from FSU, a couple with FSU in the red zone. The only real dominant win was over Virginia.

I watched the entire WF game against Virginia and I didn't come out of that game thinking oh no, the Cards are in trouble. WF uses the same offense with the same players that got them blown out by a much weaker UofL defense last season.

Now I'm sure they will play better and may win but I have yet to hear a good argument how the line was set a 7 points. People seem to think they're some great team while considering Louisville a also ran.

 

[CardX]

WF -7 is holding strong. The line did dip to -6.5, but it's back up to -7. It's only Wednesday, though.

 

[Morgantown Card]

Well, that's the thing. I wouldn't call WF wins obliterating at all. Do you consider the Cards 30 to 3 win over EKU obliterating?

The Demon Deacons got 6 turnovers from FSU, a couple with FSU in the red zone. The only real dominant win was over Virginia.

I watched the entire WF game against Virginia and I didn't come out of that game thinking oh no, the Cards are in trouble. WF uses the same offense with the same players that got them blown out by a much weaker UofL defense last season.

Now I'm sure they will play better and may win but I have yet to hear a good argument how the line was set a 7 points. People seem to think they're some great team while considering Louisville a also ran.

In my opinion WF has shown more than Louisville has so far this season. Based on what I've seen I still don't know how good Louisville is. But, for the record, I hope you're right and I'll definitely be watching (well if I can find it on tv somehow) and rooting for the Cards and I'll be here celebrating if they win. Louisville beats WF, then I'm adjusting my preseason 7-5 expectation up to 8-4 or maybe even 9-3.

 

[CardsFirst]

they're 4-0, they've scored 42, 41, 35 and 37 while not giving up more than 17. we got our butts kicked in game one and only did well once we were down 26, beat a non div 1 schoo in game 2l, got miraculously lucky and won game 3, and barely hung on after leading by 24 in game 4 and didn;t score after half. and we're supposed to be favorites? we should be 10 point dogs

I agree that we should be around 10 point dogs because we’re on their field, but IMO UCF is a better team than WF and Gabriel was a better QB than Hartman. This is a true test no doubt and we should find out some things. I guarantee we have a better D than anyone WF has played. UVAs D is a hot mess and you’ve seen FSU up close.

 

[TheRealVille]

Absolutely ridiculous to think Louisville should be 10 points dogs to Wake Forest. That will never make sense to me.

 

[nccardfan]

Not sure how home field advantage is being assessed. We are playing them in Charlotte, home of the Panthers, not on their campus.

 

[Rollem Cards]

Charlotte?

i hadn’t heard that

 

[Rollem Cards]

Charlotte?

i hadn’t heard that

We’ll there was a post said they didn’t understand the home field advantage since the game’s being played In Charlotte. Now it’s gone….or I’m one step closer to crazy.

Tickets say Winston-Salem.

 

[TheRealVille]

Game is at Truist field in Winston Salem.

 

[TheRealVille]

In my opinion WF has shown more than Louisville has so far this season. Based on what I've seen I still don't know how good Louisville is. But, for the record, I hope you're right and I'll definitely be watching (well if I can find it on tv somehow) and rooting for the Cards and I'll be here celebrating if they win. Louisville beats WF, then I'm adjusting my preseason 7-5 expectation up to 8-4 or maybe even 9-3.

Well, the perception that WF is a top 25 team after four games is very strong. I haven't seen any detractors at all. I find it peculiar that everyone in the media is acting like the Cards are playing Georgia or Ohio State. I wonder if any of the GameDay crew picks Louisville?

Looking at both the players and team numbers just has me shaking my head even more at this perception. Malik has the better QB numbers against a tougher schedule. No one on WF is off the charts on offense. There's no dominant running back or star receiver.

Basically there's only one big difference with the teams and why the Cards have the only loss. The Cards played Ole Miss in Atlanta. Basically a road game.

WF on the other hand played Old Dominion. Both teams played a FCS team a won in blowouts. Both teams beat FSU. Both teams won impressively as underdogs against higher rated teams.

So the only difference is the Cards loss to Ole Miss and WF win over Old Dominion. So how does that lead to the perception WF is a sure thing win? Neither them or the Cards had top of the conference expectations. This game should be a pick em with WF getting the three points for being at home.

Does anybody think the teams records would be flipped if the schedule was flipped? WF with the loss to Ole Miss and the Cards beating Old Dominion and Virginia? Would Wake still be a seven point favorite?

I may be wrong and Wake beats us by 14, but with everything I've seen to this moment, I have confidence the Cards are going to win.

 

[SpotHogCard]

After we win, will the spread really matter? In my mind, the bigger the dog we are the better the win is.

 

[TheRealVille]

Well, seeing that the entire thread is about before the game is played, what it matters will have to be discussed after the game.