Vegas over/under is 9.5 wins

Discussion in 'Football - The Crunch Zone' started by Knucklehank1, Jul 13, 2017.

  1. Knucklehank1

    Knucklehank1 4500+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2004
    Messages:
    4,840
    Likes Received:
    1,260
    What say you?

    I see FSU as probable loss. Clemson as toss up. NC State as slight win. UNC probable win. UK probable win. All the rest are most likely win.

    I consider a probable being anything where line is 6-9pt. Slight being line of 3-5pt. And toss up as pick em-2pt fav. Most likely being 10+
     
  2. American Male

    American Male Three-Star Poster
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2010
    Messages:
    3,378
    Likes Received:
    363
    I believe we can beat FSU...Just have to play a mostly clean game...I think we KILL Clemson this year...We could have, and maybe should have, beaten them all three years...Don't overlook Virginia...They seem to give us fits...And for whatever reason, we seem to play down to the competition in Bobby's second stint!!!

    :cool:
     
    Senore2006 and NkyCard89 like this.
  3. MDCardsFan

    MDCardsFan 300+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2015
    Messages:
    353
    Likes Received:
    211
    If I was in Vegas, I'd bet the over easily.
     
  4. gocds

    gocds Four-Star Poster
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2001
    Messages:
    11,602
    Likes Received:
    2,070
    I'm thinking I'll wait until after the Purdue and North Carolina games. I DO think we'll win both of those games, but it's how we win that I'm going to concentrate on.

    GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
     
  5. Knucklehank1

    Knucklehank1 4500+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2004
    Messages:
    4,840
    Likes Received:
    1,260
    If only Vegas would offer such flexibility. I say make a prediction. No one will hold you to it
     
    vegasville1 likes this.
  6. Cue Card

    Cue Card 6000+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2011
    Messages:
    9,080
    Likes Received:
    3,848
    UNDEFEATED!! That's the only goal in July.:D
     
    American Male likes this.
  7. gocds

    gocds Four-Star Poster
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2001
    Messages:
    11,602
    Likes Received:
    2,070
    Why not?!? All the cayut fans are not only undefeated in July but they are SEC champs and will challenge for the NC. WTH if they can do it so can we. :p:)

    GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
     
    Cue Card and American Male like this.
  8. The Public Enemy

    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2003
    Messages:
    4,408
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    If it is 9.5 unfortunately I am with the under...FSU and @ NC State, Clemson & yes @ Kentucky..this screams a 9-3 Regular Season.
     
  9. gocds

    gocds Four-Star Poster
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2001
    Messages:
    11,602
    Likes Received:
    2,070
    Negativity will get you . . . . Absolutely nowhere. I hope you ar wrong, but WTH I've been wrong before also, when I thought I was wrong, but wasn't . :p:D;):)

    GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
     
  10. zipp

    zipp Elite Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2001
    Messages:
    32,107
    Likes Received:
    5,467
    Here are the ESPN individual game probabilities...

    Purdue 0.943
    UNC 0.551
    Clemson 0.401
    Kent State 0.974
    Murray State 0.995
    NC State 0.451
    BC 0.911
    FSU 0.181
    Wake 0.765
    UVA 0.924
    Cuse 0.817
    LPT 0.606

    The sum is 8.52 wins. I would adjust UP some of those numbers...

    Purdue 0.943
    UNC 0.600
    Clemson 0.600
    Kent State 0.974
    Murray State 0.995
    NC State 0.600
    BC 0.911
    FSU 0.181
    Wake 0.765
    UVA 0.924
    Cuse 0.900
    LPT 0.750

    Which brings my total to 9.14 wins. So, I'll take the under at 9 wins...
     
    gocds likes this.
  11. Knucklehank1

    Knucklehank1 4500+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2004
    Messages:
    4,840
    Likes Received:
    1,260
    I agree. I'd take the under. I think we lose to FSU and NCst. Beat Clemson and then lose some quirky game.

    The NCst game concerns me because it feels like the Houston set up from last year. Thursday night road game on 5 days rest. Home team has already dubbed this their marquee game. Just feels like a bad scenario.
     
    cxf_cards likes this.
  12. Guy Gadbois

    Guy Gadbois Two-Star Poster
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2013
    Messages:
    1,246
    Likes Received:
    68
    I have some concerns for this year.

    No one (outside of UofL) saw Lamar Jackson coming last year (to the extent that he did). Towards the end of the season, teams started to figure us out a bit and found ways to slow Lamar down and contain him. Once that happened we got pretty beatable.

    I don't think Lamar will have quite the year he had last year. Which of course is understandable, he had one of the greatest seasons of any college football player ever last year, so that will be difficult to repeat. If we can't get the same production out of him this season, will we get enough out of the rest of the team to overcome that?

    I have a lot of faith in Petrino, and of course, Lamar too. The good news is Clemson is not going to be as good this year, so that should be a winnable game. The rest of the schedule is manageable as well. FSU will be tough because they will want some revenge. No way we lose 2 in a row to UK.

    I predict 10 wins.
     
  13. nccardfan

    nccardfan 4500+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2007
    Messages:
    4,649
    Likes Received:
    1,412
    Location:
    lawrenceburg, KY
    I agree with your sentiments about LJ. He's not going to be able to just break off those runs he had last year. I think he'll had some because he's a great athlete. Coupled with the fact that we really don't know what the backfield is going to be like is a concern. Radcliffe was better than average. LJ is going to have to pass more and no matter what we thought about Quick he was one of our leading receivers. I look at the first depth chart of our OL and don't see a lot of experience besides McNeil and Christian. Defense should be good but we have a new D.C. Too many unknowns to say we beat Clemson. Not being negative but objective. Looking forward to the Purdue game! Go Cards!!
     
    cxf_cards likes this.
  14. Mike'sMarbles

    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2002
    Messages:
    6,417
    Likes Received:
    691
    I think LJ will improve at other aspects of his game to make it harder for defenses to contain him like they did at the end of the year. I'm also looking forward to seeing Pass get some time out there.

    I don't know what to think about our defense. If they are halfway decent, we should get 9-10 wins. If I have to give just 1 number I'll say 9.
     
  15. Ipartiedwithhopgood

    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2011
    Messages:
    16,515
    Likes Received:
    2,138
    If the Cards hit the over that would be a nice surprise.

    The team mailed it in the final 3 games and slept walk through a few more. They nearly lost to Duke at home. We hear the argument "A win is a win" but the reality is how a team plays is going to matter eventually.

    So from a mental standpoint there's some concerns.

    Just as concerning - maybe more - Is the offensive line, reliance on big plays, and propensity to fumble the ball. There's also a # of play makers from the D side that have moved on.

    Things just ended so badly, I don't know if the program can just flip the switch and get back to what we saw vs FSU and @ Clemson.

    Schedule is front loaded which brings challenges in a multitude of ways.
     
    American Male likes this.
  16. zipp

    zipp Elite Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2001
    Messages:
    32,107
    Likes Received:
    5,467
    When fans and fandom get discussed, it's wonderfully inconsistent statements like these that are front and center.

    Not to mention, while playing in what is now accepted as the tougher division of the nation's best football conference.

    I just HATE the predicament we're in!

    :cool:
     
  17. Tenncard

    Tenncard No-Ranking Prospect
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 4, 2007
    Messages:
    7
    Likes Received:
    6
    I get that it's a whole new year. I get that FSU is really talented. I get that it's on their home field. But giving us an 18% shot to win this game after the curb stomping we gave them last year? Seems a little crazy to me.
     
    American Male likes this.
  18. Morgantown Card

    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2007
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    667
    Location:
    Morgantown, WV
    Dude I was at the Marshall game last year. I watched a Heisman winner score 7 touchdowns.

    Funny story. We had good seats behind the Louisville bench. Had a great time with the Marshall faithful. Louisville was up 52-7 at the end of Q3. Then, Marshall scored 21 points in Q4. Bobby blew a f-ing gasket, face as red as a stoplight. He pulled the reserves in to send the starters back (LOL) to score another touchdown. Still not satiated, Bobby had Lamar throw a deep completion with under 30 seconds remaining. Game clearly over, Bobby was still screaming at the guys to hurry to the line so they could punch it in. Lonnie Galloway looked at Bobby like he was crazy, doing the throat-slit motion screaming "That's it! We're good! We're done! Stop!" to which Bobby relented. That was hilarious.
     
    Senore2006 and American Male like this.
  19. zipp

    zipp Elite Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2001
    Messages:
    32,107
    Likes Received:
    5,467
    Consider what that % means... That FSU would win four out of five games played under identical circumstances. Maybe it's three out of four and should be 25%. But it's certainly in that range. We have a chance, but it's not like 50-50...
     
  20. vegasville1

    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2007
    Messages:
    971
    Likes Received:
    159
    I took the under - I just don't see 10 wins
     
  21. Rollem Cards

    Rollem Cards Four-Star Poster
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2001
    Messages:
    14,166
    Likes Received:
    2,775
    Lot of question marks going into year four.

    OL. RB. D.

    Under.

    If LJ goes down....WAY under.
     
  22. CardX

    CardX 15000+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 29, 2001
    Messages:
    19,728
    Likes Received:
    1,169
    Location:
    40026
    After the way last season closed out, I'm a tad skeptical. The Cards have had to stew in the misery of losing three straight. And that bowl game, ugh, I'm not sure I've seen a Louisville team play so poorly. Honestly, the Purdue game unnerves me. Brohm will be wanting to get a hot start at his new gig, and what better motivation than playing your alma mater and current Heisman trophy winner. Will the Cards come out refreshed and ready to go, or will they play like they are scared to lose. There's a little pressure to get back on the winning side of things.
     
    22 CardX, Jul 20, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2017
    American Male likes this.
  23. gocds

    gocds Four-Star Poster
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2001
    Messages:
    11,602
    Likes Received:
    2,070
    Oh WTH I'll be positive and pick over. 10 wins with losses to FSU and one other ACC team. There will be NO loss to the cayuts this season. It could be 11 wins but . . . . . . .

    GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
     
    Knucklehank1 likes this.
  24. SoundSlave

    SoundSlave Elite Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2007
    Messages:
    30,859
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    Chicago, IL
  25. Knucklehank1

    Knucklehank1 4500+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2004
    Messages:
    4,840
    Likes Received:
    1,260
    not sure where I see 5 losses on this schedule. 7-5 with the reigning heisman winner would be a real letdown.
     
    American Male and CardX like this.
  26. MDCardsFan

    MDCardsFan 300+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2015
    Messages:
    353
    Likes Received:
    211
    With all due respect, who are the 5 loses cause I don't see 5 loses on the schedule.
     
    JohnCard28 and American Male like this.
  27. Cardinal Cash

    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2016
    Messages:
    974
    Likes Received:
    388
    10-3 (10th win comes in bowl game) we lose to FSU, Clemson, and NC State on a Thursday. We'll be underestimated because all of our losses will be against teams that are seen as legit and we won't have a "legit" win. We'll get a crappy bowl draw and kill whatever sap they put us against.
     
  28. Morgantown Card

    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2007
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    667
    Location:
    Morgantown, WV
    After getting blown out by Houston & LSU, and losing to KENTUCKY (who, despite all their excitement of finally going to a bowl game, got destroyed by Georgia Tech), it could be about anyone. We bring back much of the same team with a new OL and new DC, so there are questions and it's not unrealistic to say that.

    Fix the OL, and keep the defense at about the same level - I see 9-3. But the OL and new defense are questions that we don't know answers to right now.
     
  29. Mayoman

    Mayoman Three-Star Poster
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2001
    Messages:
    3,243
    Likes Received:
    1,002
    My dim witted crystal ball is going with 12-1 and ........wait a minute...it just got all foggy on me and I can't see the rest.

    One loss to an ACC power.....not able to discern who the loss is too though yet.:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

    Gonna be a great season lads....sit back and smell the coffee and fire up the cigar. The Cards and Lamar are going to have a banner year.:)
     
    Senore2006 and American Male like this.
  30. CardX

    CardX 15000+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 29, 2001
    Messages:
    19,728
    Likes Received:
    1,169
    Location:
    40026
    Season 4 of a Petrino regime typically brings big success. In his 4th year here during his first go around, the Cards went 12-1 and finished 6th in the nation. During his 4th year at Arkansas, the Razor Backs finished 11-2 and ended up 5th in the country. So, there's that.
     
    Senore2006, American Male and Mayoman like this.
  31. American Male

    American Male Three-Star Poster
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2010
    Messages:
    3,378
    Likes Received:
    363
    Well, his second stint here has not been like the first one as of yet...I attribute that to a few of the assistant coaches thus far...So, who knows what this year will bring!!!

    When you look at it, we could have, and maybe SHOULD have, beaten Clemson every year...We had FSU on the ropes here in year one and let that one get away, and were in the game at FSU till a BAD 3rd quarter...The 1st loss to Virginia, and the last loss to Can-Suck-Me...WTF!!!

    Thats at least 5 losses that could have, or should have been wins!!!

    :cool:
     
    Mayoman likes this.
  32. SoundSlave

    SoundSlave Elite Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2007
    Messages:
    30,859
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    Chicago, IL
    UNC, Clemson, FSU, UK, and take your pic for our "WTF" loss against NC State or Syracuse.

    I really would not be shocked if Louisville manages to lose 6 games. This team has no business being ranked as high as they are in preseason polls. IF Louisville was playing 8 man or arena ball; I'd have more confidence in them. Hope they prove me wrong and make me eat my words.
     
  33. Knucklehank1

    Knucklehank1 4500+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2004
    Messages:
    4,840
    Likes Received:
    1,260
    UNC lost nearly their entire offense. They will be breaking in a new QB in game 2. We lost to U.K. after having 5 turnovers. A loss is a loss but it's hard to see us gagging like that again.
     
    American Male and JohnCard28 like this.
  34. MDCardsFan

    MDCardsFan 300+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2015
    Messages:
    353
    Likes Received:
    211
    We aren't losing to UK 2 years in a row period. UNC, like Knucklehank1 said, they'll be breaking in new guys on offense. I'll give you FSU, it's @ there place and they'll be wanting revenge. This is finally the year we beat Clemson, I'm thinking a beatdown in the 2nd half? If not, I'll gladly take the W (like many fans)

    Syracuse? It's @ home, nuff said and Action Jackson will probably have another Heisman like play against Syracuse. NC State will be playing like Houston did last year, nothing to lose, but unlike @ Houston last year, they won't have a overall bad game, they'll beat NC State in a close win. I'm very tempted to say we'll go 11-1 because on paper the schedule to me screams that record.
     
  35. The Public Enemy

    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2003
    Messages:
    4,408
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Would not put UNC on that list..they are in complete rebuild mode....Syracuse As said above is at home....lol
     
  36. nccardfan

    nccardfan 4500+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2007
    Messages:
    4,649
    Likes Received:
    1,412
    Location:
    lawrenceburg, KY
    I don't believe we will lose to UNC or the kitties but if you're thinking 11-1 you're setting yourself up for disappointment. I wish I could be more optimistic and I applaud you for it but I also never thought we lose to the kitties last year at home.
     
  37. Senore2006

    Senore2006 2500+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2008
    Messages:
    2,638
    Likes Received:
    948
    The schedule actually has its ideal moments. Playing Cuse the week before UK and in a season when UK will not have 2 weeks to prepare is an awesome quirk of fate.

    We'll go 11-1 and regret our loss, probably to FSU. We will end up Top 10 - probably #5 or 6.

    I believe the improvement of Lamar alone is enough - he just needs to take advantage of his new "veteran" status. We should be an offensive machine.
     
    American Male likes this.
  38. MDCardsFan

    MDCardsFan 300+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2015
    Messages:
    353
    Likes Received:
    211
    Do you agree or disagree w/my Clemson comment? To me, the 1st 2 games will be them getting ready for Clemson (they probably already are now) and then after it's onward to FSU. (privately)

    I know I said this before but, the Clemson/UL game screams College GameDay and I think we'll get it cause imo, Alabama will beat FSU and that will help get GameDay back here a lot because some media people are thinking the FSU/Miami game will get GameDay.
     
  39. SoundSlave

    SoundSlave Elite Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2007
    Messages:
    30,859
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    Chicago, IL
    And NC State is probably better than I am accounting for. Like I said, I really hope I don't know what I'm talking about.
     
  40. nccardfan

    nccardfan 4500+
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2007
    Messages:
    4,649
    Likes Received:
    1,412
    Location:
    lawrenceburg, KY
    Regarding your comments about Clemson. Most people think they won't be as good without Watson and they are probably right, but their defense will be stout as usual. So no, I don't think we give them a beat down in the 2nd half. Plus remember two years ago, Clemson was able to beat us with a backup QB. I will do cartwheels when we beat Clemson but I'm not willing to bet my house on it.
     

Share This Page