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There's No Reason for Optimism...

May 29, 2022
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...in men's basketball. And it doesn't have much to do with Kenny Payne. There's been no reason for optimism since Pitino was abruptly and prematurely canned.

It's all about where U of L wants to go with men's basketball, or more precisely, where they don't want to go--or don't care. It's about the lack of urgency as thousands of fans fall off the radar. ...Justifiably so as coaching abominations become the norm along with the embarrassing losses. And it's about not having money to do what needs to be done like building baseball practice facilities and buying out coaching misfires.

I generally present financial info as it becomes available and not wait for context like we now have with men's basketball. But the finances show how hopeless the situation is with this particular sport. The way in which men's basketball has systematically been DEFUNDED the last several years completely explains why there's no rush to deal with Kenny Payne. (Nor obviously is there the money...) A bad coach in men's basketball is now the standard for that sport, and how can you form any other conclusion?...

Sports-Budgets-since-2018.jpg


2018 is the year in which the men's basketball budget maxed out, so I didn't randomly choose that date. The difference now in how basketball is being supported financially and other key sports at U of L is striking, if not ridiculous. There's nothing close for comparison.

I also want to go back prior to 2018, and not simply to show how much funding there was for these sports under the prior regime. That would be the obvious takeaway, but it's not my primary focus here. What I want to point out is that men's basketball prior to 2018 was not OVERFUNDED so that, for example, the new regime was simply compensating for the way Jurich & Pitino were money rolling basketball. Far from it...

Sports-Budgets-2011-2018.jpg

Men's basketball funding was slightly behind the other sports then as well. But that probably makes some sense. The difference was slight, and let's face it...if ANY sport got the lion's share of money and attention at U of L historically, it was men's basketball. Those seven years, however, funding was 30% higher than inflation. So there's no argument like there is now that we were starving that sport.

There's no hope for men's basketball when your administration is showing this degree of indifference to how the sport is being financially supported. We don't have the money in basketball or the desire to be better than Kenny Payne or to pay what it takes to get rid of him...
 
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This 100% systematic. I make living predicting trends (for the last 20 yrs.) UL has decided that MBB should NOT complete with UK MBB. Turning MBB around is not going to happen any time soon.

The next coach, and the next coach is going to come at the end of the season.
That will not be the hire that will turn it around.

I hate to see this.
 
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And you can’t argue that money doesn’t matter when other sports like women’s basketball funding is increasing and outpacing inflation. Women’s basketball was receiving 40% of the men’s budget in 2011. Now it’s almost 75%. They’re pacing to be equal in less than a decade…
 
It depends on the next coach therefore what is the percentage of new hire college coaches that work out? My guess it is pretty low less then 40%. That alone supports your opinion.

You can throw money around all day long but you have to have viable candidates that deserve that investment. There are no Pitino type hires at least not today. They invested in Mack I agree that was a systemic failure. IMO he works out under different circumstances. A lot of factors in the KP hire and it is proving to be a bad decision.

There are viable candidates this cycle. Can they get it right? The odds and money are against them. Colorado didn’t have the money to hire Deion. It is doable.

People can bitch and moan about Beard but he is a hell of a coach. Need to stop being the moral police. Everywhere he has coached they have won. Moser can coach. Cronin, I am not a fan, can coach. May can coach.
 
Need to stop being the moral police. Everywhere he has coached they have won. Moser can coach. Cronin, I am not a fan, can coach. May can coach.
when it's your mom, sister, wife, girlfriend, friend or family member that he chokes out you may have a different opinion. again sad, you take a horrible human being along as he wins. please explain your rational to every woman in your family and your life. my guess is you are still single and will be that way unless you find some very low self esteem girl to put up with your might is right, beat and choke em if they don't agree with you mentality. you, and all other on here who think beard should be our coach are truly sad. absolutely truly sad and an embarrassment to this board. sure let's hire a man who choked his wife because he can coach. hiring beard would make me quit watching all u of l sport, never show up to any game anywhere,s and i'd burn my gear and will start rooting for uk. i'm sick of this board, so long, farewell, and thanks for all the fish....
 
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when it's your mom, sister, wife, girlfriend, friend or family member that he chokes out you may have a different opinion. again sad, you take a horrible human being along as he wins. please explain your rational to every woman in your family and your life. my guess is you are still single and will be that way unless you find some very low self esteem girl to put up with your might is right, beat and choke em if they don't agree with you mentality. you, and all other on here who think beard should be our coach are truly sad. absolutely truly sad and an embarrassment to this board. sure let's hire a man who choked his wife because he can coach. hiring beard would make me quit watching all u of l sport, never show up to any game anywhere,s and i'd burn my gear and will start rooting for uk. i'm sick of this board, so long, farewell, and thanks for all the fish....
You're way out of line dude. You're no better than the people you're calling out with those personal accusations. I for one would like to see UofL hire Beard just so you would leave the Cards fanbase and go over to UK where you apparently belong. Just who in the hell do you think you are?

I would like for you to cast the first stone so I could pick it up and throw it back at your condescending ass. Unbelievable!
 
when it's your mom, sister, wife, girlfriend, friend or family member that he chokes out you may have a different opinion. again sad, you take a horrible human being along as he wins. please explain your rational to every woman in your family and your life. my guess is you are still single and will be that way unless you find some very low self esteem girl to put up with your might is right, beat and choke em if they don't agree with you mentality. you, and all other on here who think beard should be our coach are truly sad. absolutely truly sad and an embarrassment to this board. sure let's hire a man who choked his wife because he can coach. hiring beard would make me quit watching all u of l sport, never show up to any game anywhere,s and i'd burn my gear and will start rooting for uk. i'm sick of this board, so long, farewell, and thanks for all the fish....
Did you have a similar problem with Pitino who f*#ked Karen Sypher on a table at a local restaurant? What if f*#ked your mom, sister, wife, girlfriend, etc.?
 
Let's bring this thread back around to the subject, please.

It doesn't matter which coach you try to hire and whether or not he's carrying baggage. None of these other U of L sports are prospering under the severe financial conditions that plague men's basketball.

And if you didn't know the on-the-court/field results, only that one sport was struggling mightily, which sport would you hazard a guess looking at this data?

It's not just another U of L coincidence...
 
You nor I know anything about their relationship. We don’t know if this was a one time thing or reoccurring. I will leave it at that.
 
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…They invested in Mack I agree that was a systemic failure. IMO he works out under different circumstances…
There was no investment in basketball under Mack besides his salary. He took the job knowing it was immediately being gutted financially. Of course, that was his terms of employment, so no one should feel sorry for him.

You don’t get to continue succeeding with significantly less money invested. That’s called a “free lunch”. And other sports would be required to eat one if it worked…
 
What investments are you talking about? Covid kind screwed up investments for a period of time.

Are you talking recruiting budget?
Are you talking assistant coaches?

Just curious because I don’t know.
 
What investments are you talking about? Covid kind screwed up investments for a period of time.

Are you talking recruiting budget?
Are you talking assistant coaches?

Just curious because I don’t know.
Good questions… The budget numbers in the charts above are “expenses”. Since they’re budgetary, they’re estimated in advance and not what happens to occur by the end of the year.

Also since U of L is a nonprofit, budgeted expenses are how U of L chooses to allocate all of its revenues. In principle, they can’t amass profits. If one sport gets more to spend, another gets less. That’s why it’s instructive to look at how basketball compares to other sports. (And all sports endured Covid…)

The declines in men’s basketball I’m highlighting are planned and intentional. They didn’t just happen to occur. It’s not shown, but most of the decline since 2018 occurred in 2019 and has never been restored in subsequent budgets. Mack came in the door under financial adversity that has simply continued. It’s become a permanent impairment to this sport and thus, why there’s no reason to be optimistic…
 
Let’s be honest Covid financially hurt the only revenue producing sports. The other sports suffer indirectly.

The overall performance of the basketball and football during that time frame wasn’t good and needed planned cost reductions. It would be irresponsible to keep throwing good money after bad.

I am not as smart as you guys so my takes are pretty simple. Hire the right guy, win games and make sure he/she can retain and acquire talent. The money will follow. When you hire the wrong guy, lose games and fail to retain and acquire talent money will leave.

Football is on the right track but I still question Louisville’s ability to sustain success in today’s landscape. Basketball is broken because they followed up Mack with KP, losses and retaining or acquiring the right talent.

The formula is simple the execution has been awful.
 
Again, these are INVESTMENTS in the respective sports. Covid “hurting” a particular sport would be seen in revenue, not expenses.

Covid didn’t spare men’s basketball the same expenses that other sports incurred. In practice, Covid probably didn’t do anything but INCREASE everyone’s expenses…
 
Again, these are INVESTMENTS in the respective sports. Covid “hurting” a particular sport would be seen in revenue, not expenses.

Covid didn’t spare men’s basketball the same expenses that other sports incurred. In practice, Covid probably didn’t do anything but INCREASE everyone’s expenses…
I’ve owned businesses for the better part of my adult life and generally subscribe to the notion that you can’t cut your way to profitability. That being said the degree to which there was programmatic and administrative upheaval followed up with the complete upheaval of Covid would demand cuts to expenditures.
 
I'll be glad to present a before-and-after analysis of U of L expenses around the Covid year. IIRC, there was nothing extraordinary. Tyra did a pretty good job of minimizing a deficit that year.

This investment issue with men's basketball has nothing to do with Covid. Most of it happened before Covid...
 
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