The NCAA/Recruiting Black Cloud A Reality
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For years, Louisville has dealt with questions, concerns and ultimately reluctance with high school prospects on the recruiting trail and understandably so.
According to one former staff member, it was a common occurrence to have a conversation that included a long series of questions and concerns:
“What about the sanctions? What are they going to be? When will they be decided? What if my kid comes here and the sanctions are decided and it ends up being a one or two year ban which is what it is speculated to be? It’s every kids dream to play in the NCAA tournament. Why come to Louisville with that very realistic possibility when my son has x-amount of other scholarship offers at other universities? Say the ban happens and we decide it is best to transfer, then we have to go through an appeal process and fight for immediate eligibility which we all know will take forever and it is not certain it will pass (speaking on the circumstances prior to the new transfer rules).”
According to one former staff member, it was a common occurrence to have a conversation that included a long series of questions and concerns:
“What about the sanctions? What are they going to be? When will they be decided? What if my kid comes here and the sanctions are decided and it ends up being a one or two year ban which is what it is speculated to be? It’s every kids dream to play in the NCAA tournament. Why come to Louisville with that very realistic possibility when my son has x-amount of other scholarship offers at other universities? Say the ban happens and we decide it is best to transfer, then we have to go through an appeal process and fight for immediate eligibility which we all know will take forever and it is not certain it will pass (speaking on the circumstances prior to the new transfer rules).”
I’ll say it and keep saying it because it’s true…
The NCAA and a recruiting cloud is an excuse.
The caliber of player on this team right now is no worse than it has been at U of L dating back to the days of Earl Clark and Derrick Caracter. And we’ve had quite a bit of success in the intervening years.
If you can’t win with predominately four star kids—the situation we have now—you can’t win at U of L. This isn’t a OAD school, and it’s unlikely that Kenny Payne is gonna change that.
I hope not anyway…
The NCAA and a recruiting cloud is an excuse.
The caliber of player on this team right now is no worse than it has been at U of L dating back to the days of Earl Clark and Derrick Caracter. And we’ve had quite a bit of success in the intervening years.
If you can’t win with predominately four star kids—the situation we have now—you can’t win at U of L. This isn’t a OAD school, and it’s unlikely that Kenny Payne is gonna change that.
I hope not anyway…
What if the recruiting cloud is what kept Payne from adding some quality guards to this team? An area that is sorely lacking as of now.
You can't just solely look at star averages and not the individual players and team makeup. The Cards needed to bring in some guards yet were not able to do so. That was likely due in large part to the recruiting cloud.
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Disagree. Also, the climate of top 100 players has changed drastically. However, scouting has always been crucial, especially when developing a team and finding roles for said players. The game itself has changed quite a bit since DC and Earl were at UofL as well. “Positionless” basketball is the new norm in all AAU circuits up to the collegiate level, and obviously the NBA, which is a players ultimate goal. The last 8 or so years have shown that. Traditional centers are a thing of the past, and the old model of basketball is just that. Old. You can hate the nba and want nothing to do with it, but college basketball has literally transformed into an amateur version of it. It is what it is.
I understand you can't simply recruit a team of four star players in the post. But that's not what we have.
That's an exaggeration we've never had for five years now and with two different coaching staffs.
And we have one short appearance in the NCAA postseason and a team now struggling to beat Div II teams to show for it.
Until it changes, we have talent on par with what we have always had--save for a year or two--to go along with mediocre coaching. That's the only way you can explain year after year of four star kids lining the roster and very little to show for it.
And that has nothing to do with whether I like Payne or consider myself a good fan (I do on both counts)...
I don’t know the recruiting rankings of this class well enough to be sure, but I do not think the current roster is quite to the same talent level of Pitino’s last decade or Crum’s from the 1980’s and early 1990’s.
I say that because UofL has signed a decent quantity of All American caliber players (think McD’s All star game caliber). I don’t know of anyone of that caliber on this current roster.
I say that because UofL has signed a decent quantity of All American caliber players (think McD’s All star game caliber). I don’t know of anyone of that caliber on this current roster.
The preceding recruiting cycles that relied on transfer point guards has weakened this roster to the point where we are now. There are some individuals with talent, but it is not realistic to believe KP, or for that matter any rookie HC could be responsible for these exhibition performances.
Look to see any improvement in both execution and energy; that is what I expect from this staff.
Look to see any improvement in both execution and energy; that is what I expect from this staff.
Your analysis is flawed and incorrect because it is grossly incomplete. There are 2 major distinctions in your Pitino era vs Post Pitino era you fail to ever mention.
1) Pitino era had 1 HOF HC, 1 HOF AD, 1 Pres - this is stable culture, Post Pitino era has had 4 different HC's (none near HOF), 2 ADs (neither on level of TJ) and I don't know how to describe the President situation. This is over a 6-7 year span! This is not normal. Sorry. You pretend it's status quo.
So of course these players during the Pitino era figure to perform to their star ranking better than the players that are playing under multiple non HOF head coaches in an unstable environment forced to learn new systems. It's one elephant in the room that you just wanna ignore but it's fact and it really matters. Not trying to insult you but it is somewhat embarrassing you just ignore this. But but but... Kansas! Again, Kansas remained stable. They kept their HOF coach.
2) Transfers in Pitino era vs Transfer Portal era... It's just not near the same dynamic, which is what the mod is telling you when he points out we can't get guards for this year.
During that stable glorious HOF Pitino era he was hand picking his transfers like Padgett from KU, or Stone from UK, or more recently the highly coveted D Lee from mid-major, or even Luke from GMU who was a starter @ GMU that already showed chops in the NCAAT for them.
In short, Rick hand picked high end dudes to fill a need because he was orchestrating a HOF level product with no constraints. He had no NCAA cloud holding him back. And he's telling these high end dudes to come here to win a National Title. D. Lee and Trey Lewis straight up said, "We are coming to Louisville to play in the NCAAT." (paraphrased)
In this new era, the HC's have had that cloud holding them back from making those same promises, and other programs are using this against the Cards. The portal has exploded. The rule changed. So now this NCAA cloud hampers the post Pitino era. You see Mack fetching guys in much lower demand, busts. Cunningham, Kimble, Fore, Agau - these were not the same level of player we were getting in the Pitino era. Cards forced to pull more quantity but getting far less quality. Again, a little embarrassing you don't see the difference between David Padgett and Akoy Agau. An NCAA cloud matters here. Lots. Can't have that same recruiting pitch to the transfers Rick had. Not 100% we're gonna be eligible for that NCAAT.
And more recently you get Cross, Faulkner, West, and Locke - Again - Not high end dudes. So now, as we hit complete rock bottom, with another new HC you somehow have a NET Negative in the transfer portal because of all this NCAA crap and musical chair HC shuffle because those guys either only got one year or they ran for the border because this is a dumpster fire.
You lose Davis, Locke, Cross, Sam, and Gabe to the portal. You net BHH and I guess we will count Hercy Miller (yikes). We won't count walk-on Zan. No. We just won't.
So you are a NET negative -3 (I could call it -4 but will cut Hercy slack) in the portal today. + you lose a few recruits King to Creighton and Dre's bro.
There are so many 4th/5th year players in this portal but most if not all are returning to college to play in the NCAAT - Malachi Smith told us this when he explained why he chose Gonzaga over Louisville. UofL NCAAT eligibility was up in the air and has been for years. This has crushed us in the transfer portal.
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I'd add the issue might have been we were relying on lower ended less coveted and less talented transfer point guards.
That said, I'd still prefer landing HS players and then filling out a roster with the transfer portal with a need or two.
Examples of this, KU last year adding Remy Martin and another guard out of Iowa St for depth.
Last year UNC adding Manek out of Oklahoma filling a need and this year adding Pete Nance to fill that same need from Northwestern.
Just speculating, but I think this is a better use of the portal than trying to constantly rotate the backcourt via the transfer portal.
I can hopefully reply a lot more succinctly…
First, I don’t know what a stable and competent culture at the top of U of L has to do with men’s basketball recruiting specifically. Coaching, fan support, and money…sure. I need the recruiting dot connected.
That’s irrespective of the fact our current roster is loaded with four star kids, who evidently came here anyway.
And if transfers aren’t getting you what you want, stop taking them and recruit more high school kids. No rocket science there, and nothing to do with the NCAA situation…
Just a quick qualification about these “4 Star” players; admittedly there are exceptions on all classifications, but I believe the distinction between the HS 4 Star recruits and the experienced Transfers from our competition is significant. We have enjoyed some nice support players, but we now lack those kids who can take control of a game in the manner so many of the 3 and 4 Star kids who Pitino attracted.
If your recruiting rankings are aligned with a prior era where you had 1 HC and he was HOF, but you have instability at the top now, you probably won't see the same results you saw in the previous era so it does not matter if the recruiting #'s are closely aligned or not.
This makes your point about the recruiting allegedly being aligned to prior era very weak and less valuable because all the garbage going on off the court has infiltrated your program's process during the post Pitino era and you don't receive anything remotely close to the type of stable environment of a HOF coach you had previously.
A job this prestigious clicking on all cylinders like it was with Rick is supposed to be a handoff when he's ready to bounce. A coronation in a similar way as to how UNC hired their guy, and Duke hired theirs. A grooming. Or an extensive search for next man up with full warning when the Grand Poobah was ready to hang it up. He probably would have had a say in who that next HC was gonna be.
But we got none of that. It all came crashing down abruptly. Just thrown straight into the fire we didn't even get to have our elite AD handle all this because upper mgt fired him too. Damn.
All your dysfunction trickles down. You have players trying to learn multiple systems under different and unqualified head coaches.. The off court garbage put you at a disadvantage. Malik Williams played for 4 head coaches in 5 years. Hilarious. And sad.
5 Head coaches, 3 ADs, and 3 Presidents in the last 7 years. Not status quo unsure why you normalize it and diminish this. Come on guys keep winning! Do you not understand how out of touch you sound?
Not taking transfers is no longer an option in today's era either. You are not paying attention to the world around you if you want to bypass the transfer portal. Every team in the country is working the transfer portal now. You just lost 5. You lost 3 the year before. And when you're operating with an uncertain eligibility for the post season it's tougher for you to get quantity and/or quality you need back, or keep what you had. When you are playing musical chairs at HC you get musical chairs in the uniform too. No stability. And as stated above the guys that do stay with you are at a disadvantage because they have to keep learning new systems and they gotta do it through lesser qualified coach or in some instances coaches.
Go Cards!
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It's a different debate and there's no question that a better coach does more with less talent. I'm not sure what a "yeah but we had Rick" narrative has to do with how we're recruiting.
We know Kenny Payne ain't Rick Pitino and won't be anytime soon. If we hired Payne because we thought or hoped he would bring in BETTER recruits, you had nothing to base than on except his prior LPT relationship. You don't know if OAD kids will thrive here or be supported by fans and donors. You don't even know if Payne wants them.
I'm also not buying into external factors--outside the program--having much/any effect on men's basketball recruiting specifically. These are kids in large part who say they don't even care about NCAA sanctions or a postseason. And we all know most are anxious to ESCAPE college and get onto a pro playing career in the NBA or somewhere else. Few are looking forward to graduating college anytime soon.
If any sport is more insulated from external factors than men's basketball as far as recruiting, I don't know what that sport is.
But the bottom line is easy to ground in facts we don't have to debate... The current U of L roster is largely populated by high schools kids rated four stars. That's as good as U of L has ever recruited for a sustained period. Pinning your hopes on recruiting now improving is IMO a failed premise...
We know Kenny Payne ain't Rick Pitino and won't be anytime soon. If we hired Payne because we thought or hoped he would bring in BETTER recruits, you had nothing to base than on except his prior LPT relationship. You don't know if OAD kids will thrive here or be supported by fans and donors. You don't even know if Payne wants them.
I'm also not buying into external factors--outside the program--having much/any effect on men's basketball recruiting specifically. These are kids in large part who say they don't even care about NCAA sanctions or a postseason. And we all know most are anxious to ESCAPE college and get onto a pro playing career in the NBA or somewhere else. Few are looking forward to graduating college anytime soon.
If any sport is more insulated from external factors than men's basketball as far as recruiting, I don't know what that sport is.
But the bottom line is easy to ground in facts we don't have to debate... The current U of L roster is largely populated by high schools kids rated four stars. That's as good as U of L has ever recruited for a sustained period. Pinning your hopes on recruiting now improving is IMO a failed premise...
Exactly. The root cause is obvious. Before off court problems you were a fan of a T10 program. After off court problems the damages are done and you are a fan of a team predicted to run 13th by CBS in the ACC.
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