ADVERTISEMENT

The Committee's Initial Top 10

C

CardLaw

Four-Star Poster
May 29, 2001
11,379
68
26
You can call this a "wild stab in the dark", but it really not all that "wild". That does not mean it won't be completely wrong nor does it mean that if it turns out mostly correct, I am a genius. Simply put, having watched the committee's work last year and doing a bit of homework, this is my best semi-educated guess at what the top 10 will look like Tuesday night. In order with brief explanation I offer you:

1. Clemson (#2 in Sagarin with 28th ranked schedule, 1-0 vs. current Sagarin top 10)
2. LSU (SEC, #11 in Sagarin, 37th ranked schedule)
3. TCU (#4 Sagarin, 53rd schedule, getting healthy on defense at the right time, impressive win Thursday)
4. Ohio State (defending champ, #6 Sagarin, 68th toughest schedule)
5. Baylor (#3 Sagarin, 104th toughest schedule, winning games in impressive looking fashion)
6. Alabama (#1 Sagarin, 9th toughest schedule, 4-1 vs. current Sagarin Top 30)
7. Stanford (#10 Sagarin, 23rd toughest schedule, 3-0 vs. current Sagarin top 30)
8. Florida (#9 Sagarin, 15th toughest schedule, 3-1 vs. current top 30)
9. Notre Dame (#8 Sagarin, 16th toughest schedule, 1-1 vs. current top 10)
10. Michigan State (#20 Sagarin with 59th toughest schedule, fluke win over Michigan probably not enough to move them up)

If I am wrong, I suspect my biggest miss will be with Michigan State. After all, I have four teams ahead of them who all have 1 loss. Iowa and Oklahoma State also have to be considered contenders for the top 10 based on their undefeated records. Mind you, I doubt seriously that this will be the final top 10 (or four). There is still plenty of football to be played. But this is what I think it will look sorta like Tuesday night.
 
I reserve to myself the right to change my bets, but as of now, I would bet the final four will be:

Clemson (unless they lose to FSU)
Ohio State/Michigan State winner (unless they lose to Iowa in the Big 10 championship)
LSU/Alabama winner (unless Ole Miss wins out)
TCU/Baylor winner (unless Oklahoma or Oklahoma State spoils that)
Stanford/Notre Dame winner (if there is an upset as suggested above)

I think the final four will come from among those nine schools with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State having an outside shot at sneaking in. So that gives me 11 teams. After this weekend, I think I can limit it to 9 or less. As chaotic as it now appears, I think by December 5th it will be obvious. I predict no controversy in 2015 as to who is in.
 
  • Like
Reactions: vegasville1
OK, a 0.636 correlation between my prediction and the actual. Turns out my biggest miss was not Mich. State (who was 3 spots higher), but TCU (who was 5 spots lower).

For those of you not familiar with correlations, either a 1.0 or a -1.0 are perfect. So my 0.636 is "good", but not "strong". In other words, I am "on the right track", but not "there yet".

I press on.
 
Alabama has no business being in the top 4 @ this time.

They gave up a ton of pts at home to a fringe Top 20 team. Their best win is over #25 A&M.

This is embarrassing.

No I'm not worked up, I'm laughing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mayoman and American Male
Ipartiedwithhopgood said:
Alabama has no business being in the top 4 @ this time.

They gave up a ton of pts at home to a fringe Top 20 team. Their best win is over #25 A&M.

This is embarrassing.

No I'm not worked up, I'm laughing.
Click to expand...

Not sure what embarrasses you, but you obviously did not see the Alabama/Ole Miss game.
 
CardLaw said:
Not sure what embarrasses you, but you obviously did not see the Alabama/Ole Miss game.
Click to expand...

I watched the game. They lost, at home, against a team not ranked in the top 10 - against a team that is a fringe top 20 team. Nothing I said was inaccurate.

Nobody thinks Alabama belongs in the top 4 right now, not even their fans.

Your response was empty. In your magical projection you placed Alabama 6th, so you actually agree with me meaning there was no call for your condescending response to me stating I didn't watch the silly game where Ole Miss hit the jet skis on Alabama on their home turf. I didn't attack you I attacked the committee for showing obvious bias to tradition when they are supposed to be selecting the 4 most deserving teams.

I'm embarrassed for whoever formed the committee. It's a sham. They are supposed to be putting the "right" teams in but they are laughably just leaning on tradition instead of the scores of the games.

But keep telling us about how close you were to getting it right that's awesome man.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: American Male, Section 12 Jerk and Louisvillian
Jacktwncat94 said:
Doesn't really matter because Bama or LSU will drop out after the weekend anyway
Click to expand...

It does matter in the grand scheme because these initial ratings show the committee has obvious bias because there is no methodology that would place Alabama in the top 4 right now.

I am ok with Alabama going ahead and winning out and making the playoffs if they do. They just shouldn't "already be in" as of today.

It's kind of insulting to anybody that isn't a fan of Alabama or riding conference coattails, or some goofy elitist.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mayoman, American Male and beasleythecard
Ipartiedwithhopgood said:
I watched the game. They lost, at home, against a team not ranked in the top 10 - against a team that is a fringe top 20 team. Nothing I said was inaccurate.

Nobody thinks Alabama belongs in the top 4 right now, not even their fans.

Your response was empty. In your magical projection you placed Alabama 6th, so you actually agree with me meaning there was no call for your condescending response to me stating I didn't watch the silly game where Ole Miss hit the jet skis on Alabama on their home turf. I didn't attack you I attacked the committee for showing obvious bias to tradition when they are supposed to be selecting the 4 most deserving teams.

I'm embarrassed for whoever formed the committee. It's a sham. They are supposed to be putting the "right" teams in but they are laughably just leaning on tradition instead of the scores of the games.

But keep telling us about how close you were to getting it right that's awesome man.
Click to expand...

Not only did you not watch the game, you never read my initial post. I didn't rank anyone. I merely tried to predict how the committee would rank teams. How I would rank them is not even an interesting question to me.

As for no one thinking Alabama belongs in the top 4, that too is incorrect. David Pollack had them in his top 4 and both Sagarin and Massey have them ranked #1. CBS's Jerry Palm has them projected as one of the four teams at the end of the season. Seems to me those sources all think the committee, with respect to Alabama, picked the "right" team.

Your hatred of all things SEC is clouding your judgment and making you a tad over-sensitive.
 
Not only did you not watch the game - I watched the game, I don't think you did. Alabama lost, at home. They trailed the entire game. They were outplayed. It wasn't a fluke win. They gave up 43. Ole Miss is in the back end of the Top 20.

CBS's Jerry Palm has them projected as one of the four teams at the end of the season. - It's not the end of the season, it's November 4th. Jerry Palm's projection is inconsequential to the sham of where Alabama was placed now. I'm not saying Alabama shouldn't be part of a projection, it's a snapshot in time look I'm discussing, because it's a snapshot in time "4". I can certainly see Alabama winning out and earning their playoff spot.


Your hatred of all things SEC is clouding your judgment and making you a tad over-sensitive. - I don't hate the SEC. I haven't made any derogatory remarks about the SEC in this thread. I made a comment about tradition, the SEC is not the only league with tradition. tOSU was the recipient of tradition love last year, and the first round of "4" represents a lean towards tradition again. You are defending the SEC to me for no reason. You are the one overly sensitive about the SEC. You're defending the SEC's honor to a guy that didn't say a bad thing about the SEC.

You are attacking me again by insulting me telling me I didn't watch the Alabama/Ole Miss game, implying I "just don't understand!" Ole Miss lead the game throughout, it was not some back and forth type of game. Alabama scored a couple TDs late but they were down 43-24 with 10 min to go. It was a game mostly dominated by Ole Miss's receivers. The Ole Miss QB rolled up nearly 350 passing on them with no INTs. Alabama's QBs turned it over. It was just not some epic loss where everybody turned the TV off thinking ESPN Classic. Not saying they aren't really good and can't end up being a top team, but that game was not a great showing by Alabama.

You're also accusing me of being a tad sensitive.

You're making this personal. I guess my last line in my initial response was a little sharp my bad!

My point was made clear - Alabama doesn't belong in the "4" now. I didn't say ever. I even made it clear if they won out they were obviously deserving of getting in. I didn't say anything about you personally in regards to if you understand what you watch and how you feel emotionally.



 
Last edited:
CardLaw said:
Not only did you not watch the game, you never read my initial post. I didn't rank anyone. I merely tried to predict how the committee would rank teams. How I would rank them is not even an interesting question to me.

As for no one thinking Alabama belongs in the top 4, that too is incorrect. David Pollack had them in his top 4 and both Sagarin and Massey have them ranked #1. CBS's Jerry Palm has them projected as one of the four teams at the end of the season. Seems to me those sources all think the committee, with respect to Alabama, picked the "right" team.

Your hatred of all things SEC is clouding your judgment and making you a tad over-sensitive.
Click to expand...
David Pollack? Why would anyone give any weight to what that SEC hack said concerning rankings? Listened to him many times on ESPN and while he obviously knows football, he has very limited knowledge of the entire college football landscape.

What, Paul Finebaum's and Lou Holtz's top 4 were not available?

My top 4 with obviously lots of big games left.
1. Clemson
2. LSU
3. Baylor
4. Ohio St.
 
Louisvillian said:
David Pollack? Why would anyone give any weight to what that SEC .
Click to expand...

Hard to believe an employee of the SEC Network would side with Alabama at this time, huh?

It reminds me of watching conference basketball tournaments during March Madness. Every announcer will tell you how good whatever league they cover is. Like, the Old School B East, Raf would call the Rutgers vs Seton Hall game and tell you both these teams are really good, and you'd look @ their records and they were both like, 12-20.

Alabama belongs somewhere between 6-8 right now with a golden opportunity to earn their way in.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Louisvillian
Ipartiedwithhopgood said:
Hard to believe an employee of the SEC Network would side with Alabama at this time, huh?

It reminds me of watching conference basketball tournaments during March Madness. Every announcer will tell you how good whatever league they cover is. Like, the Old School B East, Raf would call the Rutgers vs Seton Hall game and tell you both these teams are really good, and you'd look @ their records and they were both like, 12-20.

Alabama belongs somewhere between 6-8 right now with a golden opportunity to earn their way in.
Click to expand...
Yeah but at least with Raftery you got to hear him yell "Onions!"
 
Louisvillian said:
David Pollack? Why would anyone give any weight to what that SEC hack said concerning rankings? Listened to him many times on ESPN and while he obviously knows football, he has very limited knowledge of the entire college football landscape.

What, Paul Finebaum's and Lou Holtz's top 4 were not available?

My top 4 with obviously lots of big games left.
1. Clemson
2. LSU
3. Baylor
4. Ohio St.
Click to expand...

Baylor? Which win impressed you most? SMU, Lamar, Rice, Texas Tech, Kansas, West Virginia or Iowa State?

Maybe you meant TCU with wins over Minnesota, Stephen F. Austin, SMU, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, Iowa State and WVU?

Maybe you meant the other undefeated - Oklahoma State? Which of their wins is best? Central Michigan, Central Arkansas, Texas San Antonio, Texas, Kansas State, WVU, Kansas or Texas Tech?

You and Hopgood want to criticize the committee for picking Alabama with one loss, but seriously, can you name any team with a pulse that would not be undefeated given those schedules? Alabama is #4 right now because those schools schedule nobody. They should be penalized for it. If they win out they should still be on the outside looking in. Hell, schedule UK! Schedule IU! Lamar? Rice? Stephen F. Austin? Central Arkansas? These teams deserve respect? From who?

If UL, UK or Alabama played those schedules, all three would be undefeated right now. Think UL or UK is among the best four teams in the country as of today?

Actually, I think TCU is pretty good and I think if they get in they will represent themselves well. But I get a bit annoyed by people praising teams who are apparently afraid to schedule anyone of consequence. They should be punished. It will ultimately benefit us fans as maybe in the future September games won't be so ridiculous.
 
Last edited:
CardLaw said:
Baylor? Which win impressed you most? SMU, Lamar, Rice, Texas Tech, Kansas, West Virginia or Iowa State?

Maybe you meant TCU with wins over Minnesota, Stephen F. Austin, SMU, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, Iowa State and WVU?

Maybe you meant the other undefeated - Oklahoma State? Which of their wins is best? Central Michigan, Central Arkansas, Texas San Antonio, Texas, Kansas State, WVU, Kansas or Texas Tech?

You and Hopgood want to criticize the committee for picking Alabama with one loss, but seriously, can you name any team with a pulse that would not be undefeated given those schedules? Alabama is #4 right now because those schools schedule nobody. They should be penalized for it. If they win out they should still be on the outside looking in. Hell, schedule UK! Schedule IU! Lamar? Rice? Stephen F. Austin? Central Arkansas? These teams deserve respect? From who?

If UL, UK or Alabama played those schedules, all three would be undefeated right now. Think UL or UK is among the best four teams in the country as of today?

Actually, I think TCU is pretty good and I think if they get in they will represent themselves well. But I get a bit annoyed by people praising teams who are apparently afraid to schedule anyone of consequence. They should be punished. It will ultimately benefit us fans as maybe in the future September games won't be so ridiculous.
Click to expand...
Wrong about me criticizing the committee for placing Alabama so high. I was just laughing at your reference to the esteemed David Pollack.

As far as Baylor goes, you are right about their putrid schedule so far but I don't think anybody can stop their offense including all the other teams in the top 10. We will find out if they are worthy soon with a 3 game stretch against Ok St, Oklahoma and TCU.

The fact is, Ohio St., Michigan St. TCU, Stanford, Florida and yes Alabama have looked less than impressive at times this year. I have Alabama just outside the top 4 because you can't lose at home to a team that was humiliated at Florida and lost by 2TDs to Memphis and not take a hit. As Hop said, there is ample opportunity for Alabama to prove they are worthy of being a top 4 team starting Saturday.

Easy Mr. Bryant.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mayoman
FLA has a stronger case to be in over Alabama.

Their only loss is by 7 in the toughest setting in the country, @ top tier LSU on a Saturday night. They humiliated Ole Miss.

It's not so much the one loss with Alabama, it's that they were at home, and the loss was not to a top tier team.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Red Rager
With all due respect Louisvillian, you are wrong about Pollack's Top 10. The Sports Broadcaster's Union has a clause which requires any Notre Dame team with less than 6 losses to be ranked in any Top 10.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Louisvillian
Ipartiedwithhopgood said:
FLA has a stronger case to be in over Alabama.

Their only loss is by 7 in the toughest setting in the country, @ top tier LSU on a Saturday night. They humiliated Ole Miss.

It's not so much the one loss with Alabama, it's that they were at home, and the loss was not to a top tier team.
Click to expand...

I can't disagree with that. As we sit here today, I think Florida has a stronger argument. However, let's not forget that last year Ohio State lost at home to Virginia Tech and Ole Miss this year is far and away better than VPI was last year. Every team will at some point in a season play their worst game and their best game. The goal is to figure out whose average is best.
 
Louisvillian said:
The fact is, Ohio St., Michigan St. TCU, Stanford, Florida and yes Alabama have looked less than impressive at times this year.

Easy Mr. Bryant.
Click to expand...

My only disagreement here is I would expand that list to include everyone. There is not one team I have seen this year that made me say "wow". I have seen some impressive performances here and there (Alabama at Georgia, for instance). But, not one team (whether they have impressed me or not) has failed to turn in a pedestrian performance (Alabama versus both Ole Miss and Tennessee, for instance).

Right now I could not give you an honest top 10 - no one belongs other than the fact that someone has to be there.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

C

Current Sagarin College Football Ratings Possible Bowl Opponents for UL, Cards Come in at # 15

Replies
12
Views
1K
Premium: Collision Course
Cardiac Red
Cardiac Red
T

2025 Schedule

Replies
5
Views
1K
Forum: Louisville Football
Thecycle27
T
C

Calls After Georgia Loss Last night vs Norte Dame Mounting for 16 Team Playoff with No Bye's for Any Teams Effective 2025

Replies
20
Views
1K
Premium: Collision Course
cocoa
C
Sultan__of__Swine

SOCCER: ACC MEN'S TOURNAMENT

Replies
2
Views
647
Forum: Louisville Football
Sultan__of__Swine
Sultan__of__Swine
ajgcardman

Conf Championship Week & Unbalanced Scheduling

Replies
7
Views
640
Premium: Collision Course
ajgcardman
ajgcardman
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back