Program Evaluation

[Thecycle27]

I think we all struggle with how to evaluate a program. Which way is the program moving?

I think this is key question for Louisville’s AD to answer.

Win and Losses are the easy emotional way to evaluate. It is a bottom line business. To me 8-4, 7-5 and 6-6 are basically the same. It probably comes down to handful of plays-call.

I think it goes deeper than wins and losses.

I am torn. I believe Satterfield has the program moving in the right direction.

1) His offensive philosophy-scheme work at this level with the right pieces.
2) Their defensive scheme can work with talent.
3) Sowders was a wonderful hire and needs to be retained no matter what.
4) Special teams has been solid.
5) Player development is good.
6) Recruiting plan-NIL whatever is solid maybe great. Took too long.
7) His PR-fan engagement still sucks. He really struggles with PR. Louisville has had coaches that understood hype-swag needed at Louisville. They all knew what buttons to push to get fans engaged. If I was him I would get fined this week over officiating.

With all that said they still could finish 6-6 and at that point I really don’t know what you do.

 

[rentalman]

One thing he has to do is sign a top-notch QB in the transfer portal who can come in the Spring and learn the offense and be our starting QB. BD has done some nice things but he can't be your starting QB and have a winning Season. I am not sure he could last a whole season. Because of his lack of mobility, he takes a lot of shots. Tough guy but sooner or later you're going to get injured.

Conley hasn't played much the last two years and when he has he has not looked good. S. Johnson is redshirting this year and the Coaches like his potential. The only other scholarship guy at this point will be P Clarkson who will be a true freshman. If he gets here for the spring I am sure he will get a look but it would be asking a lot for true freshmen to come in and play at this level.

I think the UL QB job will be attractive to a transfer because the job is wide open with MC leaving.

 

[Thecycle27]

Next year is a huge question mark.
It is why I started the thread. I am not sure they should have this many question marks after 4 years.

I agree. This is probably not a fair statement but Malik isn’t the right fit for this offense. QB play is critical in being successful. Relying on 2 Freshman or Dohman probably isn’t a good plan.

There are several questions marks on offense next year.

RB room could be stacked or very thin.
WR have to get more speed and talent. Incredibly thin.
OLine losing a bunch of pieces. Impossible to predict.

This why finishing 6-6 is problematic. They get young real fast next year and at Louisville that isn’t good.

 

[Mayoman]

I think we all struggle with how to evaluate a program. Which way is the program moving?

I think this is key question for Louisville’s AD to answer.

Win and Losses are the easy emotional way to evaluate. It is a bottom line business. To me 8-4, 7-5 and 6-6 are basically the same. It probably comes down to handful of plays-call.

I think it goes deeper than wins and losses.

I am torn. I believe Satterfield has the program moving in the right direction.

1) His offensive philosophy-scheme work at this level with the right pieces.
2) Their defensive scheme can work with talent.
3) Sowders was a wonderful hire and needs to be retained no matter what.
4) Special teams has been solid.
5) Player development is good.
6) Recruiting plan-NIL whatever is solid maybe great. Took too long.
7) His PR-fan engagement still sucks. He really struggles with PR. Louisville has had coaches that understood hype-swag needed at Louisville. They all knew what buttons to push to get fans engaged. If I was him I would get fined this week over officiating.

With all that said they still could finish 6-6 and at that point I really don’t know what you do.

I slightly take issue with number 6. "it took to long". This is the first year for NIL is it not?
Or did you mean it took too long for the Recruiting plan to take hold? (Adding more staff?)

Recruiting elite players to UofL in FB has pretty much always been an uphill challenge. Unless this city starts putting out more Bush's and Brohm's, the lack of elite talent in the state of Kentucky is practically nil. And even that next level under the elite is thin and UK has (I am sad to say) won more than their fair share of those players. and ND or a BIG or SEC team plucks one or two out right under UofL's noses (Purdue for example).

What our rivals and opponents use to beat CSS in recruiting are inter mixed with 3 points of late:

1 - After CSS success in year 1...Tyra muffed his relationship by reneging on a verbal agreement regarding his contract. This negatively affect CSS.

2 - CSS had an ill father in NC that rightly or wrongly affected CSS to look closer to home (ie USCjr) to move his services and it was handled very poorly. This negatively impacted his connection and support of UofL loyalists and affected his good will with the fan base. (they turned on him).
Recruits and current players are like: WTH is going on? Opposing coaches are using this against him when he remained as coach.

3 - The support of enhanced recruiting staff is somewhat too little too late in year 3...but shows with increased emphasis and additional staff UofL is on a more level playing field with our ACC brethren....but still that staff is lacking in seasoning, experience, charisma whatever you want to label it, but is still a learning process for all involved.

This years potential highest rated class in UofL's history may hang in the balance of the future of CSS and short term for UofL too.

Will NIL level that issue out and make it a non-issue for UofL going forward?...that is the elephant in the room as I see it. And the Portal process is an outlier too.

Continuity and stability of the coaching staff for UofL has always (Vice CHS) been a problem for UofL. A change now could be too and set the program back once again. This is truly a catch 22 for our program at this point in time. Get this wrong and who knows what the affect of that will be? Change for changes sake is not always good.

IRT player development...this year has shown significant improvement in that area especially the DL and the defense in general....and next year the team will be completely CSS players....and a better gauge of how his coaching has impacted/developed his recruits.

I am in the camp of one more year....all in. If the class falls apart and/or we see mass portal movement out that will be another indicator of his performance. Re-Evaluate then and the die will be cast.

Your point about the officials is well taken. Something needs to be put out there and stop taking it laying down without a fight. Geez ACC FB officials are something else.

I know this is long...but these are the thoughts on my mind spurred by cycle 27's questions.

 

[KerryRhodes]

Good points so far.

The pressing needs has always been OL and DL
The DL played good yesterday.
The OL was overwhelmed.
Get an OL that can match Clemsons DL.

 

[beantowncard]

Good points so far.

The pressing needs has always been OL and DL
The DL played good yesterday.
The OL was overwhelmed.
Get an OL that can match Clemsons DL.

Most of that DL will be playing in Sundays.

 

[CardHack]

* Trenches are always a glaring issue when we play Clemson; even in the spectacular performance in 2016 we had something like 12 TFLs and a high volume of penalties blocking a potent defensive line. I think we can honestly state that situation is being directly addressed with an apparently quality offensive line haul. But we have to have a line that doesn't have just a Becton or Chandler caliber player surrounded by decent Linemen, we have to have them in tandem. We need all-conference caliber players in the trenches. Sanker is one of those types, perhaps Burgess can become one. We need more.

* Additionally the defensive surge of the last month has masked an issue....we are pedestrian in the receiving corps and I include the TEs in that because one of the primary tenets of a Satterfield offense is it is heavily reliant on TEs to play a big part of the running the game outflanking the edge and bringing them across the formation in blocking schemes and it's use to crack linebackers in the 2nd level. Ford has been beatup most of the year, Martin is a quality blocker but the types of TEs he wants and needs for the scheme to work are a Ford type as an H Back and somebody like we had with Hikutini or a Gary Barnidge in the more intermediate zones around a linebacker drop. We're not there, but...there is promise in the recruiting class.

Special teams is night and day from last year. I'd term it "activity" in the front seven is night and day compared to last year because they are forcing turnovers, strips and pressure...last night they were a step short, but still generated a couple turnovers in a competitive game. Those two facets have made us a competitive team, whereas in the two previous years we didn't generate much in those phases.

 

[RealStateBird]

Satterfield doesn’t know how to offense the blitz. Clemson cheated via the officiating. That’s it in a nutshell. Need to run some draw plays, fullback/tailback screens behind the LOS not those stupid bubble screens. Roll the QB out of the pocket to help with pressure. More quick slants and outs (the way the NFL handles blitzing downs). This is Satterfield’s weakness.

 

[Thecycle27]

I do think his offensive scheme requires a great Oline. It is so predicated on the run. When the run is shut down then what? It will work with 80 percent of the teams on schedule but Clemson-UK-Ole Miss type teams can take it away. They have adjusted their passing game with shorter-intermittent routes.

Recruiting I thought it took them too long to figure out what they needed to compete in ACC. I didn’t mean it as a criticism just an observation. COVID really screwed up their world. Once they figured it out they adjusted. They have a great plan but they have to execute it.

The defensive scheme is exactly how they have to play. They just need to recruit to it and execute.

 

[nccardfan]

I do think his offensive scheme requires a great Oline. It is so predicated on the run. When the run is shut down then what? It will work with 80 percent of the teams on schedule but Clemson-UK-Ole Miss type teams can take it away. They have adjusted their passing game with shorter-intermittent routes.

Recruiting I thought it took them too long to figure out what they needed to compete in ACC. I didn’t mean it as a criticism just an observation. COVID really screwed up their world. Once they figured it out they adjusted. They have a great plan but they have to execute it.

The defensive scheme is exactly how they have to play. They just need to recruit to it and execute.

Well, Evans was not 100% and no Cooley or Mitchell right?

 

[Knucklehank1]

Good thread!

First of all, I’m not fond of Satt however I’m 99.9% sure he will be back next year. Ultimately, continuity is best for the program.

#7 in the first post is spot on. Satt is like having plain oatmeal for breakfast. It fills a need, is mostly inexpensive, it’s digestible and is boring. He does not connect with our fanbase. I’m not sure what all he can do about that so maybe our fans just need to accept him for what he is and what he brings to the table. He is never going to be brash, arrogant or a riverboat gambler. I’m still unsure what our identity as a program is going forward with Satt.

I agree completely that we need to bring in a transfer QB. Doumann is not a P5 caliber QB. It’s concerning that Malik hadn’t developed nor have we brought along Khalib Johnson. Down the road we hope Clarkson is the guy but we can’t expect a true freshman to take the reigns. This lack of developing QBs is a definite Satt negative.

We lose a lot of dudes. Many of the guys making big plays for us will likely be gone (not sure who all has Covid years remaining). We have studs coming in but it takes time to develop them.

Our schedule is much easier next year. Also it’s the first year of a division-less ACC so the opportunity is there. Can we get enough guys in here that are ready to play right away is the big question??

 

[Thecycle27]

Well, Evans was not 100% and no Cooley or Mitchell right?

I think that illustrates how difficult a season is on teams. It also shows how much impact transfers have on rosters. They had 4 running backs we all thought they were deep. They were down to 1 at Clemson.

The WR room is down to 3-4 guys. It is a damn shame Watkins and Harrell left. I think the offense is completely different with them.

They have been shuffling the Oline all year long due to injuries.

This is where the portal really can hurt depth which impacts actual game play.

 

[Rollem Cards]

I believe our receivers will get “better” with anybody but MC.

I don’t believe they work hard when MC plays because they KNOW he won’t check down to them IF they aren’t the primary.

We’ll see.

 

[Thecycle27]

Twitter is saying Huggins Bruce and Cooley are transferring. Impossible to stop and unfortunate for the staff.

 

[Knucklehank1]

Twitter is saying Huggins Bruce and Cooley are transferring. Impossible to stop and unfortunate for the staff.

Haven’t seen anything on Twitter or TOS saying that. Which Twitter account have you seen that tweeted?

 

[Knucklehank1]

Just saw it on Louisville Updates Twitter. Not sure how reliable. That being said Cooley transferring wouldn’t be a big surprise.

 

[TheRealVille]

Programs lose players to the portal but they also gain players. Both Huggins- Bruce and Cooley haven't proven to be game breakers so if they transfer it's not really going to hurt the team.

Unlike Harrell leaving for Alabama which did hurt the Cards, but Hudson replaced him from the portal. For me, these skill players leaving is a good sign the touted recruits will indeed sign with Louisville.

Until the NCAA reigns in the transfer portal, most programs are going to see players leaving that they normally wouldn't see.

 

[2330859]

To summarize CardHack’s excellent post ….. it gets back to talent and in the case of the “trenches”, we simply are inferior to Clemson.

Totally agree about the criticality of this upcoming Transfer and NIL period. Losing Harrell hurt us in the early season, but as Hudson has gained understanding of this offense, he has more than compensated for that departure.

 

[nccardfan]

To summarize CardHack’s excellent post ….. it gets back to talent and in the case of the “trenches”, we simply are inferior to Clemson.

Totally agree about the criticality of this upcoming Transfer and NIL period. Losing Harrell hurt us in the early season, but as Hudson has gained understanding of this offense, he has more than compensated for that departure.

How is that compensation when we could have had both? That's a tradeoff that offsets any gain.

 

[BPGhost]

How is that compensation when we could have had both? That's a tradeoff that offsets any gain.

Exactly. Instead of having two game-breaking WRs that defenses had to account for, there was one. If the program is to take the next step(s) running in place is not the way to go about it.

 

[Thecycle27]

Experienced depth matters. Harrell and Watkins knew the offense. When you lose starters that is never good. Hudson has been great but it took 4-5 games to get settled in. Having Harrell or Watkins takes the top off plus keeps the safeties back. It has hurt the running game by not having them.

You need both. You have to be able to run the ball. It is a bonus when you are explosive in the running game. Petrino’s best teams clobbered teams with the run and pass. It is really hard to have teams that are that balance.

 

[2330859]

In all fairness Cycle; Bobby Petrino enjoyed the benefit of skill position players that were at, or very close to NFL talent.

I think if we go back and examine the number of UL players who played under Petrino and were drafted by NFL, it would dwarf those who have been here during the Satterfield era.

I find myself being reluctant to be critical of MC, as his numbers speak volumes towards his skill and his contribution to this program. However, he has struggled with obtaining any degree of consistency throwing the football, and for further evidence of just how poor he is In the passing game; it is an extraordinary situation when you see his offensive numbers, but no serious chance of playing QB at the next level.

Watch NCST put 7 in the box and focus their DB attention on Hudson. None of our opponents respect MC throwing the football successfully for 4 quarters.

 

[ReincarnatedJungleTiger]

Most of that DL will be playing in Sundays.

100% that D-line is projected to be drafted in the 1st or 2nd round when eligible. Hell, Murphy (DE) and Bresee (DT) are rated the best college players at their position with PFF ratings over 90. That means they are projected to be NFL all-pro players. The other two starters (Davis and Henry) are rated in the 80’s, indicating that they are projected to be NFL impact players.

That is one of if not THE best D-lines in the country.

For perspective, Louisville’s best rated pro prospect is Caleb Chandler at 77.2.

 

[Thecycle27]

In all fairness Cycle; Bobby Petrino enjoyed the benefit of skill position players that were at, or very close to NFL talent.

I think if we go back and examine the number of UL players who played under Petrino and were drafted by NFL, it would dwarf those who have been here during the Satterfield era.

I find myself being reluctant to be critical of MC, as his numbers speak volumes towards his skill and his contribution to this program. However, he has struggled with obtaining any degree of consistency throwing the football, and for further evidence of just how poor he is In the passing game; it is an extraordinary situation when you see his offensive numbers, but no serious chance of playing QB at the next level.

Watch NCST put 7 in the box and focus their DB attention on Hudson. None of our opponents respect MC throwing the football successfully for 4 quarters.

His offensive lines were ridiculously good plus a bunch of skilled guys. It was a incredible run of talent.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Twitter is saying Huggins Bruce and Cooley are transferring. Impossible to stop and unfortunate for the staff.

I saw Huggins-Bruce Mom comment on a Twitter thread saying this was BS in regards to her son FWIW.

 

[Thecycle27]

Yeah, he would of been a surprise I shouldn’t have trusted that thread. Better to just let things play out before commenting.

I do think Stoops made a interesting comment about transfers. The entire roster are free agents every year. When you think of it that way that has to be a nightmare to manage.

It will force coaches to simplify their schemes.