Look no further than Arkansas vs Houston. Most of you, by now, have become used to "Numbers" analysis I use to define a team's true power rating. Hopefully, you have become a believer in them, especially November Numbers. They reveal an awful lot at this time. Over the last couple weeks, I've warned you about Auburn, LSU & Penn St all probably being a little better than we think, while also telling you Texas A&M was overrated, and Florida & Nebraska were frauds.
Now I give you Arkansas vs Houston. Arkansas has bolted into the top 25 after its big win over fraudulent Florida. The "Numbers" say that Arkansas is actually only a +6.9 team (offensive component of +3.8 and defensive component of +3.1). Their "big" wins were over TCU, Ole Miss, and Florida, all big-name teams that were overrated when they played them. This +6.9 number is on par with teams like Georgia & Wake Forest. Don't buy into the propaganda pushing this team as being a top-20 type club.
Houston, on the other hand, has a number of +13.4. This despite an absolutely atrocious -31 number posted by them @SMU, amid widespread speculation that their coach was leaving for Texas. An embarrassing defeat that made them drop out of the rankings. That listless performance continued in their next game against UCF. But after falling behind early 24-3, they appeared to break out of their funk in the 2nd half, dominating the Knights and winning 31-24. They then dropped even further in the "others" category last week in both major polls despite being on a bye week. Remember, if you threw out that way-untypical -31 performance against SMU, you're talking about a +19.5 football team, which would land them amongst the top 10 or 12 teams in the nation. Houston, at +13.4, has been totally forgotten. Don't sleep on this team.
I would play Houston today big -24 over Tulane, with a 1/2x play on the "over" in that game. I would throw in LSU -6 @Ark as well to complete a parlay.
Go Cards!
Now I give you Arkansas vs Houston. Arkansas has bolted into the top 25 after its big win over fraudulent Florida. The "Numbers" say that Arkansas is actually only a +6.9 team (offensive component of +3.8 and defensive component of +3.1). Their "big" wins were over TCU, Ole Miss, and Florida, all big-name teams that were overrated when they played them. This +6.9 number is on par with teams like Georgia & Wake Forest. Don't buy into the propaganda pushing this team as being a top-20 type club.
Houston, on the other hand, has a number of +13.4. This despite an absolutely atrocious -31 number posted by them @SMU, amid widespread speculation that their coach was leaving for Texas. An embarrassing defeat that made them drop out of the rankings. That listless performance continued in their next game against UCF. But after falling behind early 24-3, they appeared to break out of their funk in the 2nd half, dominating the Knights and winning 31-24. They then dropped even further in the "others" category last week in both major polls despite being on a bye week. Remember, if you threw out that way-untypical -31 performance against SMU, you're talking about a +19.5 football team, which would land them amongst the top 10 or 12 teams in the nation. Houston, at +13.4, has been totally forgotten. Don't sleep on this team.
I would play Houston today big -24 over Tulane, with a 1/2x play on the "over" in that game. I would throw in LSU -6 @Ark as well to complete a parlay.
Go Cards!
