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Predict the line: LPT

zipp

zipp

Elite Member
Jun 26, 2001
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We're currently about 35-point favorites over Duke, which looks kinda crazy high. According to ESPN's Power Index, we have a 97.7% chance of beating Duke.

The only team left on our schedule with a higher win probability is LPT at 97.8%.

The gamblers among us probably know...does Vegas typically pick "rivalry" games closer than you would otherwise expect? Or unless things change, should we expect to be a five-TD favorite in our last game too?

Just the indignity of that could send out shock waves throughout the state even before the game is played...
 
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zipp said:
We're currently about 35-point favorites over Duke, which looks kinda crazy high. According to ESPN's Power Index, we have a 97.7% chance of beating Duke.

The only team left on our schedule with a higher win probability is LPT at 97.8%.

The gamblers among us probably know...does Vegas typically pick "rivalry" games closer than you would otherwise expect? Or unless things change, should we expect to be a five-TD favorite in our last game too?

Just the indignity of that could send out shock waves throughout the state even before the game is played...
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Not a gambler per se, but I suspect the line will be tighter for the UofL-UofK game because of the intense rivalry.

My best guess is the Cards will open around a 14 point favorite. We'll cover. :D
 
Good point about the indignity for BBN fans.

To play devil's advocate here for a minute: Let's say that uk pulls a few upsets between now and the final game of the regular season......perhaps they win 4 of their remaining 5 or even 3......that would make them 7-4 or 6-5 coming into the game......what would Vegas do with that situation?

Maybe they would only be 10 - 14 point underdogs instead. Wouldn't that be better for the Cards SoS, especially if that 5 TD spread occurred in a convincing win over an SEC bowl bound team in a rivalry game? Not saying to root for them, but that would spice up the game before it is played. jAbout time they hold up their part of the arrangement.

Better yet....the CBP led team performs to a 40+ victory and no mercy from the Cards as they score at will over the hapless mildcat defense that couldn't stop wissing on itself to save their life?

Those kind of results would send shock waves throughout the state after the game is played as the stark divide between the 2 programs is exposed for the whole nation to see.:D once again.:)
 
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Too early to tell. UK is getting better on defense every week. Not saying they'll be favored, or even that it will be a single digit spread, but if their defense continues to improve every week, I'd be shocked at anything more than 14.

Note that I said defense...... Their offense isn't improving.
 
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Kratz said:
UK is getting better on defense every week.

Note that I said defense......
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Are you sure about this?:)

Or are they just playing poor offenses? The kitties have been improving every year for the last 60 if you believe some. Especially last year. Wild Card???? ;)

Even if they are improving on D, how long will that continue before they mail it in because they know the O will let them down?

It's gonna be fun to watch. Again.

I hope they come here with 5 wins.
 
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U of L by 23, opening line. Obviously will change.

LPT Football: "pitiful, pitiful football."
 
Just to name a few unknowns that make any spread prediction now a crap shoot.

Will Barker return? Will UL be healthy? Will we still be a candidate for the playoffs and needing an impressive beat down on UK for the committee? Will UK be at 5 wins coming into the game?

I am not concerned about UK's defense; but I do believe that any success they might have running the football could affect time of possession and minimize the number of points that we score.

I would agree that 14 points would be the minimum under the worst of conditions for UL, and as many as 30+ if UK has any further negativity coming into the contest
 
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Rollem Cards said:
Are you sure about this?:)

Or are they just playing poor offenses? The kitties have been improving every year for the last 60 if you believe some. Especially last year. Wild Card???? ;)

Even if they are improving on D, how long will that continue before they mail it in because they know the O will let them down?

It's gonna be fun to watch. Again.

I hope they come here with 5 wins.
Click to expand...

Yeah, they are getting better on defense. Held Bama to 34 or so in Tuscaloosa while bama scored well into the 40's at Arkansas. Held Vandy in the teens, while WKU scored in the 30s on Vandy (both road games for Vandy). Even Saban and Bama players said after the game UK was much more physical on defense than they expected.

Not saying they're world beaters or anything like that, but the D is getting better as the season goes along. The kid that replaced Elam is doing much better at clogging up the middle. Frees up the LB's and secondary to be more aggressive in their own areas. Westry will probably be playing on Sundays.

The O speaks for itself......... Can't answer the second part of your question. Kinda sad that they're that bad as a unit because Boom and JoJo are 2 really good backs. IMO Boom would start over Radcliff if he were at UofL. No slam intended towards Radcliff, I just think Boom is that good.
 
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2330859 said:
Will Barker return? Will UL be healthy? Will we still be a candidate for the playoffs and needing an impressive beat down on UK for the committee? Will UK be at 5 wins coming into the game?
Click to expand...

The as yet unconfirmed rumor is that Barker is out for the year with a back injury that existed prior to the start of the year. It was aggravated by a hit that he took early in the second half of the Southern Miss game.
 
zipp said:
We're currently about 35-point favorites over Duke, which looks kinda crazy high. According to ESPN's Power Index, we have a 97.7% chance of beating Duke.

The only team left on our schedule with a higher win probability is LPT at 97.8%.

The gamblers among us probably know...does Vegas typically pick "rivalry" games closer than you would otherwise expect? Or unless things change, should we expect to be a five-TD favorite in our last game too?

Just the indignity of that could send out shock waves throughout the state even before the game is played...
Click to expand...

If the game was this weekend, I'd say the line would be 3+ TD's range, say 24 points. That's about what Bama beat them by, right? Rivalry game and all that, I'd say 24 points is fair.

If it's the end of the season and we're sitting at #5 in the CFP rankings - then we're gonna smack the black off that ass. I'd put the line at 5 TD's + expect the margin to be even greater.
 
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Usually based on trends.I think the trend in the series is that the traveling team somehow answers the challenge of going against a hostile crowd.I'm only basing this on memory.I'm too lazy to do the work.Tbs,it probably won't be as high as it should.
 
I'd say it will be at least 25, if
Kratz said:
Too early to tell. UK is getting better on defense every week. Not saying they'll be favored, or even that it will be a single digit spread, but if their defense continues to improve every week, I'd be shocked at anything more than 14.

Note that I said defense...... Their offense isn't improving.
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There is no way that Vegas would set the spread at only 14, all of the money would go one way and they'd lose their a$$...Vegas isn't dumb.
 
Unfortunately for U.K, they get beat up by the end of the year having to play in the grueling SEC. Really it's not fair U.K. has to play this game.
 
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in an area of which I have some knowledge and which Zipp is asking for an opinion over 6 weeks out, I would say right now that the Cards would be about 27 point favorites at home

Lots will change. Rivalry, what's at stake and where both teams are momentum wise heading into the game, aka, Mildcats 1 game to be "bowel eligible".

If it's a Stoops last game where he's got some player backing then who knows.
 
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So the rivalry factor is worth about a TD+ to narrow a representative spread. Sounds reasonable to me...
 
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Knucklehank1 said:
Unfortunately for U.K, they get beat up by the end of the year having to play in the grueling SEC. Really it's not fair U.K. has to play this game.
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You get it. What kind of shape would UofL be in if they had to run the gauntlet of Top teams that UK does. Just a who's who of College Football Powerhouses week after week. Southern Miss could of never hung with us at all if the Cats weren't beat up from SEC games.
 
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Knucklehank1 said:
Unfortunately for U.K, they get beat up by the end of the year having to play in the grueling SEC. Really it's not fair U.K. has to play this game.
Click to expand...

And what was the excuse when it was the first game of the year and UofL was still winning? Oh yeah, UofL spent the whole summer prepping for UK while UK spent the summer prepping for the SEC or some such nonsense.

Always an excuse whether it's the first game of the year or the last. Quit the excuses, man up and admit that your school doesn't care about football and is completely inferior to UofL in football right now.

If you don't like it, beat us. Simple as that.
 
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rockycard said:
I'd say it will be at least 25, if

There is no way that Vegas would set the spread at only 14, all of the money would go one way and they'd lose their a$$...Vegas isn't dumb.
Click to expand...

I said IF the defense keeps improving. I also said it would be an opening line.

Say their defense is better than it was against Bama. Bama scored 34 on them. Our offense is better than Bamas. Add the better defense and that puts us around the same score 34 -35ish. Bamas defense is better than ours. UK got six on them. Cats are capable of scoring 17-20 in a hyped up rivalry game.

So in the best apples to apples comparison I can come up, that's how I came up with the 14ish point opening line.

Not saying I'm right, jmo on a rivalry game.
 
Figuring out the starting line with us is sort of pointless; I've never seen so much betting action on one team effect the line so radically as it does us. We've had no less than three games where the line change in our favor over six points (FSU, Clemson and now Duke). Usually in college a plus two and a hook is about as high as you see.
 
Kratz said:
And what was the excuse when it was the first game of the year and UofL was still winning? Oh yeah, UofL spent the whole summer prepping for UK while UK spent the summer prepping for the SEC or some such nonsense.

Always an excuse whether it's the first game of the year or the last. Quit the excuses, man up and admit that your school doesn't care about football and is completely inferior to UofL in football right now.

If you don't like it, beat us. Simple as that.
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Do you know knuckles?...
 
cantmissprospect said:
You get it. What kind of shape would UofL be in if they had to run the gauntlet of Top teams that UK does. Just a who's who of College Football Powerhouses week after week. Southern Miss could of never hung with us at all if the Cats weren't beat up from SEC games.
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Uahkay hadn't played an $EC game prior to southern piss...it was the first game of the season! Nice try.

LPT Football: "pitiful, pitiful football."
 
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CardinalHaze said:
Uahkay hadn't played an $EC game prior to southern piss...it was the first game of the season! Nice try.

LPT Football: "pitiful, pitiful football."
Click to expand...
Yes but they spent 2 months practicing against SEC level talent before the game. Haven't you ever seen The Junction Boys?
 
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Cue Card said:
Not a gambler per se, but I suspect the line will be tighter for the UofL-UofK game because of the intense rivalry.

My best guess is the Cards will open around a 14 point favorite. We'll cover. :D
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We will be at least 28 over Ky
 
Knucklehank1 said:
Unfortunately for U.K, they get beat up by the end of the year having to play in the grueling SEC. Really it's not fair U.K. has to play this game.
Click to expand...
Yea that SEC east is just brutal. NC State would beat anyone that Uk has beaten and also, UK.
 
In all seriousness, it wouldn't hurt of UK won some games this year before the annual yearend beat-down. Adding to the SoS definitely would not hurt Louisville in a CFB seeding scenario.

Zipp, I don't expect you to agree, lol!
 
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