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Miami has a lot of talent. QB Jarren Williams throws a very accurate deep ball and has several very fast receivers who can get behind a defense to make the big play. He hit on two long TD passes against FSU (one to Dee Wiggins and the other to Jeff Thomas) and of course the week before that he came off the bench to throw a game winning TD pass in the last minute to his second leading receiver, KJ Osborn, to beat Pitt. And none of those guys are his number one receiver, as that is Brevin Jordan.

They have two really good running backs in DeeJay Dallas and CamRon Harris, and they probably don’t hand off to them nearly enough. They have just 275 rushes on the season versus 309 pass attempts, which is a 47/53 run/pass ratio. But it’s an even bigger discrepancy than that, because Miami has given up 35 sacks, which get counted as runs in the NCAA stats. When you instead count those 35 sacks as passes, you end up with a 41/59 run/pass ratio. Not balanced at all, despite having a running back in Dallas who averages 6 yards per carry.

So despite having big play capability, Miami has struggled at times on offense: they are 120th in rush offense at 111 yards per game and 125th in sacks allowed, giving up 35 in 9 games. Despite that high sack number, I am expecting Miami will be very tempted to test UofL’s pass defense, which is ranked #106 in passing yards allowed on the season.

With Diaz as their coach, you’d expect them to have a very good defense, and they do, led by DE Greg Rousseau’s 12 sacks on the season. They are 12th in rush defense allowing 98 yards per game and 14th in total defense giving up just 290. They are number 5 in total sacks with 34. Should be a great matchup on that side of the ball, with UofL’s #22 rushing offense going against that rush D.

Special teams will no doubt play a factor, as we will be relying on a new place kicker and kickoff specialist. One interesting matchup in UofL’s favor is that UofL has the #3 kickoff return team (29.88 yards per return) going against Miami’s #94 kickoff return defense (allowing 22.28 yards per return).
 
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50% chance of rain for the Miami area, so weather could be a factor...not sure if that helps or hurts us. I'm going to go with help. Is Miami's QB still injured/healing? we've put some pressure on QB's this season and that could also play a role...if we can put pressure on him rushing 4, I can see very good things for us in this game; but we will be sending blitz packages his way on a regular basis to ensure he at least gets rushed in his reads. We've been seeing a nice trend with T/O ratio the last few games, if that continues it could be the difference. We control the game with our run, use a ton of clock, get an int/fumble, and secure the onside kick!!! and we got this.
 
50% chance of rain for the Miami area, so weather could be a factor...not sure if that helps or hurts us. I'm going to go with help. Is Miami's QB still injured/healing? we've put some pressure on QB's this season and that could also play a role...if we can put pressure on him rushing 4, I can see very good things for us in this game; but we will be sending blitz packages his way on a regular basis to ensure he at least gets rushed in his reads. We've been seeing a nice trend with T/O ratio the last few games, if that continues it could be the difference. We control the game with our run, use a ton of clock, get an int/fumble, and secure the onside kick!!! and we got this.

Jarren Williams was the injured QB. He came off the bench against Pitt and was the starter against FSU.
 
We score 20 and we win. I think in a physical game, we need 1-2 big 30-40+ yard plays to break through.

Miami is very inconsistent, so it’s hard to say how we will matchup. But with an extra week to prepare I feel like we should be favored.

This will be a big test for our defense for sure.
 
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