But they really need to start winning games NOW to win back the fan base. We are better than 2019, and considerably better than 2018. Just a little snakebit in the 4th quarter this year, and not exactly sure why. But I don't think it's necessarily coaching.
After the Virginia game, I posted that we really needed to start seeing some changes in our Athletics Department if they want me to continue to re-invest next year at the level I currently do. I was frustrated. I was tired of the negativity & perceived decline of our top 2 programs. I felt like we were looking to cut budgets, settling for mediocrity, and not investing to be the best we could be. I made those comments because I was worried we weren't sufficiently marketing our programs anymore, and concerned our recruiting and fan support would follow down this path of perceived de-emphasation. As a long time fan and alum, I wanted this "perceived" trend to stop. Two more tough losses and the bickering grows.
But I've never called for our football coaches to be fired. I have stated my concerns of recruiting, especially at the QB position. I have stated my concerns that most of our best players and playmakers were not brought in by them and were actually holdovers from the previous regime. However, I think our staff has done a good job developing kids and improving our team. Let me explain why.
When Petrino was fired in 2018, how bad were we and what was considered our biggest weaknesses in our program?
I think most that knew would say that our QB play was bad (due to youth), and our secondary was weak, but that the "biggest" issues clearly rested within the trenches. Offensive skill talent was here, and we had a monster at left tackle, but the rest of our big uglies, on both sides, weren't very good or plentiful, and the stats clearly demonstrated that. Below are some clear stat indicators of this from the 2018 season:
Offense:
Rush Offense - 142 y/g (#101 in the nation)
Tackles for Loss Allowed - 7.8/g (#122)
Sacks Allowed - 3.6/g (#127)
Defense:
Rush Defense - 277 y/g (#126)
Tackles for Loss - 3.8/g (#126)
Sacks - 0.9/g (#125)
We were at the bottom of the pertinent stats that measure your ability in the trenches. If you can't block, its very hard to move the football. If you can't stop the run, or apply pressure, its hard to stop anyone. That's why we were so bad. It's really that simple.
So when Scott Satterfield was hired, he said the right things.....change the culture, balanced attack, run the football, and stop the run. We all knew he had his work cut out for him and the numbers above shouted out very clearly what needed to be done - strengthen the offensive and defensive lines.
So how has he done? How has Louisville performed in these areas? What do those same stats look like the last 3 seasons?
2019 (8-5, Bowl win over MSU in Music City)
Offense:
Rush Offense - 213 y/g (#24 in the nation - tremendous improvement)
Tackles for Loss Allowed - 9.9/g (#130 worst in FBS)
Sacks Allowed - 3.0/g (#117)
Defense:
Rush Defense - 206 y/g (#112)
Tackles for Loss - 6/g (#61)
Sacks - 2.1/g (#69)
Comparing the stats from 2019 and 2018, it was abundantly clear:
a) we were explosive running the football with Hall, Hawkins, Atwell and Cunningham (speedy Petrino playmakers)
b) we ran behind one guy predominantly, and generally had trouble blocking elsewhere, giving up many sacks and more TFLs than anybody!
c) our defensive front was better immediately, with virtually the same guys, improving from the worst to just "below average"...an indication that coaching there had been significantly improved.
d) its hard to believe we could win 8 games and beat an SEC team in a bowl game with those line stats; the fact we did was a testament to the coaching and the big-play capabilities of some of Petrino's guys, namely Fitz and the 4 above.
We were ecstatic about our new staff because of the remarkable turnaround. We were stoked about 2020. But then COVID came. Social unrest via racial justice protests was centered in a handful of cities too, with ours being one. It was a weird season. A really weird season. Games were like practices, with virtually no fans, and numbers of players out upon little notice. And we took a step back. But what about the primary areas we were rebuilding in - offensive and defensive line?
2020 (4-7, No Bowl)
Offense:
Rush Offense - 200 y/g (#29 - still very good)
Tackles for Loss Allowed - 8.5/g (#121 - still bad, but very slightly better)
Sacks Allowed - 2.7/g (#98 - slightly improved)
Defense:
Rush Defense - 180 y/g (#80 continued improvement)
Tackles for Loss - 5.7/g (#79 very slight step back)
Sacks - 2.0/g (#73 about the same)
The numbers above indicate we didn't take a step back in the trenches, even continued to improve a bit. So why 4-7? I think we're all well aware why.....Malik had a less productive year and our turnover margin was putrid leading to a few losses that probably should have been wins. But we still saw some improvement in the trenches, despite the loss of a 1st round draft pick LT.
Coming into this season, we wanted Satt to show something. He lost his honeymoon status after botching the South Carolina flirtation, and the fans expected results. Preseason hype was present - Malik was going to be back to 2019 form, and the defensive and offensive lines were expected to be much improved. Bryan Brown said this was clearly his best unit and the new oline coach said this might be the best unit he's coached. Then Ole Miss happened, and the train wreck with the fan base began.
But hasn't Malik been better, much better with managing the football? And what about those two lines, the ones that were supposed to be much improved? Well, here's the numbers thus far through 9 games (against a top 20 strength of schedule I might add):
2021 (4-5, but 2 plays away from 6-3 with only losses to ranked teams away)
Offense:
Rush Offense - 205 y/g (#24 - still very good)
Tackles for Loss Allowed - 4.3/g (#39 - tremendous improvement, up 82 spots!)
Sacks Allowed - 1.7/g (#38 - huge improvement up 60 spots!)
Defense:
Rush Defense - 133 y/g (#42 continued strong improvement up 38 spots)
Tackles for Loss - 6.1/g (#39 up 40 spots)
Sacks - 2.8/g (#25 up 48 spots)
The numbers above clearly show that, despite our 4-5 record and tough, tough losses, our offensive line is much, much better this season than it has been for several years. Our improvement up front on defense has been equally as remarkable. If you haven't noticed, we are getting increasingly better in the trenches as the season progresses. We have just rushed for over 200 yards against two of the best rush defenses in the ACC in back-to-back weeks. And we aren't getting our offense from a handful of huge big-plays like we did before with Tutu and Hawk. We are now the #3 rushing team in the ACC and the #5 rush defense in the ACC (our opponent Saturday Syracuse is the #4 rush defense and #1 rush offense, #3 rush offense in the nation).
We're obviously not where we want to be, and I'd sure like to see the recruiting improve, but the team improvement and player development is there if you look closely. Now we just have to WIN games!
And now we get a 5-4 Syracuse team who is playing their best football of the season and coming off a bye week well rested. And their strengths are rush offense and rush defense, so they will test our improving trenches. This will be another tough challenge in a must win game.
Find a way to win, go whip Duke, and come into the UK game on a 2-game win streak and already bowl-eligible. And give them a hard-ass fight! Win out and things will change around here drastically!
Trust me, we can do this. Just Win.
NEVER QUIT!
After the Virginia game, I posted that we really needed to start seeing some changes in our Athletics Department if they want me to continue to re-invest next year at the level I currently do. I was frustrated. I was tired of the negativity & perceived decline of our top 2 programs. I felt like we were looking to cut budgets, settling for mediocrity, and not investing to be the best we could be. I made those comments because I was worried we weren't sufficiently marketing our programs anymore, and concerned our recruiting and fan support would follow down this path of perceived de-emphasation. As a long time fan and alum, I wanted this "perceived" trend to stop. Two more tough losses and the bickering grows.
But I've never called for our football coaches to be fired. I have stated my concerns of recruiting, especially at the QB position. I have stated my concerns that most of our best players and playmakers were not brought in by them and were actually holdovers from the previous regime. However, I think our staff has done a good job developing kids and improving our team. Let me explain why.
When Petrino was fired in 2018, how bad were we and what was considered our biggest weaknesses in our program?
I think most that knew would say that our QB play was bad (due to youth), and our secondary was weak, but that the "biggest" issues clearly rested within the trenches. Offensive skill talent was here, and we had a monster at left tackle, but the rest of our big uglies, on both sides, weren't very good or plentiful, and the stats clearly demonstrated that. Below are some clear stat indicators of this from the 2018 season:
Offense:
Rush Offense - 142 y/g (#101 in the nation)
Tackles for Loss Allowed - 7.8/g (#122)
Sacks Allowed - 3.6/g (#127)
Defense:
Rush Defense - 277 y/g (#126)
Tackles for Loss - 3.8/g (#126)
Sacks - 0.9/g (#125)
We were at the bottom of the pertinent stats that measure your ability in the trenches. If you can't block, its very hard to move the football. If you can't stop the run, or apply pressure, its hard to stop anyone. That's why we were so bad. It's really that simple.
So when Scott Satterfield was hired, he said the right things.....change the culture, balanced attack, run the football, and stop the run. We all knew he had his work cut out for him and the numbers above shouted out very clearly what needed to be done - strengthen the offensive and defensive lines.
So how has he done? How has Louisville performed in these areas? What do those same stats look like the last 3 seasons?
2019 (8-5, Bowl win over MSU in Music City)
Offense:
Rush Offense - 213 y/g (#24 in the nation - tremendous improvement)
Tackles for Loss Allowed - 9.9/g (#130 worst in FBS)
Sacks Allowed - 3.0/g (#117)
Defense:
Rush Defense - 206 y/g (#112)
Tackles for Loss - 6/g (#61)
Sacks - 2.1/g (#69)
Comparing the stats from 2019 and 2018, it was abundantly clear:
a) we were explosive running the football with Hall, Hawkins, Atwell and Cunningham (speedy Petrino playmakers)
b) we ran behind one guy predominantly, and generally had trouble blocking elsewhere, giving up many sacks and more TFLs than anybody!
c) our defensive front was better immediately, with virtually the same guys, improving from the worst to just "below average"...an indication that coaching there had been significantly improved.
d) its hard to believe we could win 8 games and beat an SEC team in a bowl game with those line stats; the fact we did was a testament to the coaching and the big-play capabilities of some of Petrino's guys, namely Fitz and the 4 above.
We were ecstatic about our new staff because of the remarkable turnaround. We were stoked about 2020. But then COVID came. Social unrest via racial justice protests was centered in a handful of cities too, with ours being one. It was a weird season. A really weird season. Games were like practices, with virtually no fans, and numbers of players out upon little notice. And we took a step back. But what about the primary areas we were rebuilding in - offensive and defensive line?
2020 (4-7, No Bowl)
Offense:
Rush Offense - 200 y/g (#29 - still very good)
Tackles for Loss Allowed - 8.5/g (#121 - still bad, but very slightly better)
Sacks Allowed - 2.7/g (#98 - slightly improved)
Defense:
Rush Defense - 180 y/g (#80 continued improvement)
Tackles for Loss - 5.7/g (#79 very slight step back)
Sacks - 2.0/g (#73 about the same)
The numbers above indicate we didn't take a step back in the trenches, even continued to improve a bit. So why 4-7? I think we're all well aware why.....Malik had a less productive year and our turnover margin was putrid leading to a few losses that probably should have been wins. But we still saw some improvement in the trenches, despite the loss of a 1st round draft pick LT.
Coming into this season, we wanted Satt to show something. He lost his honeymoon status after botching the South Carolina flirtation, and the fans expected results. Preseason hype was present - Malik was going to be back to 2019 form, and the defensive and offensive lines were expected to be much improved. Bryan Brown said this was clearly his best unit and the new oline coach said this might be the best unit he's coached. Then Ole Miss happened, and the train wreck with the fan base began.
But hasn't Malik been better, much better with managing the football? And what about those two lines, the ones that were supposed to be much improved? Well, here's the numbers thus far through 9 games (against a top 20 strength of schedule I might add):
2021 (4-5, but 2 plays away from 6-3 with only losses to ranked teams away)
Offense:
Rush Offense - 205 y/g (#24 - still very good)
Tackles for Loss Allowed - 4.3/g (#39 - tremendous improvement, up 82 spots!)
Sacks Allowed - 1.7/g (#38 - huge improvement up 60 spots!)
Defense:
Rush Defense - 133 y/g (#42 continued strong improvement up 38 spots)
Tackles for Loss - 6.1/g (#39 up 40 spots)
Sacks - 2.8/g (#25 up 48 spots)
The numbers above clearly show that, despite our 4-5 record and tough, tough losses, our offensive line is much, much better this season than it has been for several years. Our improvement up front on defense has been equally as remarkable. If you haven't noticed, we are getting increasingly better in the trenches as the season progresses. We have just rushed for over 200 yards against two of the best rush defenses in the ACC in back-to-back weeks. And we aren't getting our offense from a handful of huge big-plays like we did before with Tutu and Hawk. We are now the #3 rushing team in the ACC and the #5 rush defense in the ACC (our opponent Saturday Syracuse is the #4 rush defense and #1 rush offense, #3 rush offense in the nation).
We're obviously not where we want to be, and I'd sure like to see the recruiting improve, but the team improvement and player development is there if you look closely. Now we just have to WIN games!
And now we get a 5-4 Syracuse team who is playing their best football of the season and coming off a bye week well rested. And their strengths are rush offense and rush defense, so they will test our improving trenches. This will be another tough challenge in a must win game.
Find a way to win, go whip Duke, and come into the UK game on a 2-game win streak and already bowl-eligible. And give them a hard-ass fight! Win out and things will change around here drastically!
Trust me, we can do this. Just Win.
NEVER QUIT!
