Caesars has us as 3.5 wins which is right where I think it should be. I figure we beat EKU and WKU. But not sure where the other wins are at.
Over/Under Win Total
- Thread starter Knucklehank1
- Start date
1. Notre Dame L
2. EKU W
3. WKU W
4. Florida State L
5. Boston College W
6. Wake Forest W
7. Clemson L
8. Virginia L
9. Miami L
10. NC State W
11. Syracuse L
12. Kentucky L
I got 5-7, but you guys will play FSU and UVA very close. I could easily see it breaking 6-6.
2. EKU W
3. WKU W
4. Florida State L
5. Boston College W
6. Wake Forest W
7. Clemson L
8. Virginia L
9. Miami L
10. NC State W
11. Syracuse L
12. Kentucky L
I got 5-7, but you guys will play FSU and UVA very close. I could easily see it breaking 6-6.
I think the talent on this team is being over looked. Five wins and at best 6. We shall see
Will the fans be patient or will they wanna FARRRR that sonofabeyitch?
Most people I’ve talked to have reasonable expectations
I hate to be a pessimist but the Cards can be better than they were last year and still only win two games again. I've seen Virginia and Syracuse both predicted in the top 25. Athlon has every Louisville opponent but EKU (not ranked), WKU (111), BC (61), Wake (60) and UK (48) ranked in the top 40. The Cards are at 81. This is a really tough schedule. With that being said I predict:
Cards beat EKU and WKU. They win one of BC, @wake and @UK. They win one of Virginia and Syracuse in an upset win at home. They lose the rest for a 4-8 record.
Cards beat EKU and WKU. They win one of BC, @wake and @UK. They win one of Virginia and Syracuse in an upset win at home. They lose the rest for a 4-8 record.
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I think the number is 4 wins this season. I'm counting EKU and WKU as 2 of those. Then, among the home games, I think we get a win over one of BC (not convinced they have truly turned the corner yet) or NC St (new qb). And I think the new culture will result in a road surprise, with the most likely candidate being Wake Forest. Call me an over-optimistic fan if you want, but the only games I see as unwinnable are Clemson, ND, and Miami.
The bloom will be off the rose at four wins or less. Four wins is "meeting expectations" for me, but I think that's a little below what the average fan needs to see.
I'd take the "over" at 3-1/2, but I wouldn't bet the farm...
If the “bloom will be off the rose at four wins or less” you’re saying the Cards have to win 5 to keep the bloom on the rose. That means 3 wins against teams where the Cards ( as of today) are underdogs and no upset losses. To meet your “expectations” they have to win two games as underdogs. While it might be reasonable to expect upset wins from a program with a staff that has been able to recruit for a couple of seasons I don't believe it is reasonable to expect it from a new staff using mostly inherited players from a team that only beat Indiana State and WKU last season..
I’m hopeful for 4 wins. I certainly don’t expect it this season.
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I'm saying that the average fan in our fanbase will start to make noise and wander off unless there are five wins on the record. And you'll start to hear more about basketball, Jeff Brohm, a half empty stadium, and how many millions have been spent.
I don't necessarily agree with all of that, but that's what most fans do...
You also said, “Four wins is meeting expectations for me.”
For me four wins would exceed expectations.
Well I’m the dumb@$$ I guess.
I’m sure the team is not “expecting” to lose 8 games.
I never played for a coach who said “We’re toast this week so we’ll take it easy”.
So I’m “expecting” to win em all.
However, if we don’t, I’ll understand why
I’m sure the team is not “expecting” to lose 8 games.
I never played for a coach who said “We’re toast this week so we’ll take it easy”.
So I’m “expecting” to win em all.
However, if we don’t, I’ll understand why
Well I’m the dumb@$$ I guess.
I’m sure the team is not “expecting” to lose 8 games.
I never played for a coach who said “We’re toast this week so we’ll take it easy”.
So I’m “expecting” to win em all.
However, if we don’t, I’ll understand why
Fn A
I expect to have no expectations IRT the W/L record. I will celebrate every W that this team earns though. It will be hard.....if they play with grit, heart, and determination with a never quit attitude....then the chips will fall were they may. I will continue to support and love my Cardinals no matter what.
I try very hard to be realistic in my expectations. I am going into the season believing 4 wins is a reasonable expectation and will remain staunchly behind the team. It will be interesting to see how the majority of the fanbase responds IF we get our 4 or 5 wins yet take a big loss or two from Clemson and someone else.
Zipp is right about the fickleness of the UL “fan”.
I’ve been around long enough to see it.
It was why I was against expand CS the first time.
We had 35k rabid fans in the 90’s. CS allowed another 8-9k to join the ranks. And we made the place look pretty full most of the time. Now we have around 40-45k rabid fans. And 60k when times, and weather, are good.
The first expansion offered cheap seats to a lot of “fans” who could afford NOT to go if conditions weren’t optimal.
Once again, it was all about money. Yeah, we gotta have it. I know.
But I find it ironic that now that we’re in BIG bucks, the people paying it are fine with us staying home. And it seems more “fans” are fine with it too
My wife, who loves going to games, has said more than once that she likes the info and instant replays TV provides. So
-CS won’t show replays even while TV is reviewing a play.
-the paying fan has to wonder if your best defender, or two, are going to get kicked out of the game.
Then....complain because attendance is down.
Truth is stranger than fiction.
I’ve been around long enough to see it.
It was why I was against expand CS the first time.
We had 35k rabid fans in the 90’s. CS allowed another 8-9k to join the ranks. And we made the place look pretty full most of the time. Now we have around 40-45k rabid fans. And 60k when times, and weather, are good.
The first expansion offered cheap seats to a lot of “fans” who could afford NOT to go if conditions weren’t optimal.
Once again, it was all about money. Yeah, we gotta have it. I know.
But I find it ironic that now that we’re in BIG bucks, the people paying it are fine with us staying home. And it seems more “fans” are fine with it too
My wife, who loves going to games, has said more than once that she likes the info and instant replays TV provides. So
-CS won’t show replays even while TV is reviewing a play.
-the paying fan has to wonder if your best defender, or two, are going to get kicked out of the game.
Then....complain because attendance is down.
Truth is stranger than fiction.
Got the Steele magazine yesterday. In his powerpoll, we’re ranked 89th. EKU isn’t ranked, since they are FCS, and WKU is 105th. Everybody else on our schedule is ranked ahead of us, as follows:
2 Clemson
13 Notre Dame
22 Miami
33 Florida State
41 Syracuse
45 Virginia
52 NC State
60 Kentucky
66 Boston College
72 Wake Forest
89 Louisville
105 Western Kentucky
There are a few statistics Phil points to that are encouraging for us. UofL goes from 115th last year to 16th in terms of experience. Also, UofL has Phil’s highest “stock market indicator” of all FBS teams at +6.5, which Steele has 29 years of data indicating that when the stock market indicator is +6 or higher, nearly 90% of the time teams have improved their record the following year.
Steele does say that he expects us to be vastly improved, but that we have so much ground to make up against a difficult schedule that he does not expect us to escape the ACC basement.
2 Clemson
13 Notre Dame
22 Miami
33 Florida State
41 Syracuse
45 Virginia
52 NC State
60 Kentucky
66 Boston College
72 Wake Forest
89 Louisville
105 Western Kentucky
There are a few statistics Phil points to that are encouraging for us. UofL goes from 115th last year to 16th in terms of experience. Also, UofL has Phil’s highest “stock market indicator” of all FBS teams at +6.5, which Steele has 29 years of data indicating that when the stock market indicator is +6 or higher, nearly 90% of the time teams have improved their record the following year.
Steele does say that he expects us to be vastly improved, but that we have so much ground to make up against a difficult schedule that he does not expect us to escape the ACC basement.
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I won’t offer a total wins number but I do think that other than WKU and EKU the bottom four teams on the list above (KY, BC, WF and NC State) are very possible wins for UofL this upcoming season. I also believe that we’ll beat someone that we aren’t supposed to beat (I nominate FSU or Miami). I predict a better season than many haven’t considered. But WTH that’s just me.
GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
I remain cautiously pessimistic in part because of our terrible quarterback play last year. The same players are back at that position, so until I see a good performance for an entire game out of either Pass or Cunningham, I will expect us to struggle against everyone, including WKU and EKU.
I think that bar's a little low, and I think most fans are expecting more.
I'll also say--you can pretty much count on it--that if we're spending $3+ million for a coach that can only scratch out three wins on this schedule, we're wasting money...
I’m pretty sure we have some talent.
History says we have some coaching.
Depth is the biggest issue IMO.
Stay healthy and we’re on the over. Get banged up? Doubtful.
But....if we get banged up, and still hit the over? The future will look VERY good.
History says we have some coaching.
Depth is the biggest issue IMO.
Stay healthy and we’re on the over. Get banged up? Doubtful.
But....if we get banged up, and still hit the over? The future will look VERY good.
The phrase “on this schedule” is where the expectations are out of whack with reality. According to Steele’s power poll ranking, we are 16 ranking spots higher than WKU and 17 spots lower than Wake Forest. That ranking should suggest to everyone that 1-10 is as likely as 3-9, and that 2-10 is very clearly where to set the bar for this year.
Getting back to the schedule ... not only do we have the misfortune to play Notre Dame and a much-better-than-their-historical-average UK in the non-conference, but we also have Steele’s 1st (Miami) and 2nd ranked (Virginia) teams out of the Coastal. Every ranking of our schedule I’ve seen so far rates it as one of the 20 toughest schedules in the nation.
To point to this schedule as a reason why to expect more wins than usual is to be misinformed.
Yes, but the predictors also had us finishing 11th(?) in ACC basketball prior to '19 season. I'm giving CSS and staff AND our players more credit than the typical naysayers. Get the fans (including naysayers) in the stands and let's see what is possible.
Hope that discipline adds a couple of wins by its self, bro. Otherwise we are in trouble.
WKU was a competent coach away from rolling us last year, bro. That isn’t a guaranteed win at all.
It pisses me off but UKaaay about put 70 on us. It’s gonna be hard.
We pissed away a few games with stupid errors and Bobby brain farting last year. Don’t think that happens this year with Scott and the boys. I feel Scott will get us 4-6 wins but 2 might be likely. We gotta keep the faith, bros.
WKU was a competent coach away from rolling us last year, bro. That isn’t a guaranteed win at all.
It pisses me off but UKaaay about put 70 on us. It’s gonna be hard.
We pissed away a few games with stupid errors and Bobby brain farting last year. Don’t think that happens this year with Scott and the boys. I feel Scott will get us 4-6 wins but 2 might be likely. We gotta keep the faith, bros.
Correct ... and that’s one of the things that made 2018-19 basketball so enjoyable as a season: fully understanding what the expectations were and then watching as the team exceeded them.
Two important points to consider when attempting to extrapolate basketball to football: (1) a roster of 85 scholarship players is much more difficult to develop in one season than a roster of 13, and (2) we were 2-10 and completely uncompetitive in 9 of those 10 losses last year in football, which is significantly different than the above .500 NIT team that Mack took over.
If you’re looking at it realistically, the expected rebuild in football should be significantly more difficult than it was in basketball, where coaches can and often do turn over half the roster in a given year.
I go back to what I’ve been saying since last yr. QB Play- it’s the one position that will make or break your season. Show me a team that won over 7 games and I will show you good QB play. UL has never had a good team when they didn’t have the QB. The reason I think the staff is so confident in Pass is because they know that they have a backup plan that is probably studying the playbook and practicing as we speak. The kid who they said lacks experience but is a work o holic. Evan Conley. I’ll tell you right now if Puma isn’t winning by game 5 I expect it to be Conley time and the kid can spin the ball. He’s got a huge arm I’ve seen him throw and he’s got the best arm out of all 3. Next yr it’s CHUBBA TIME!!
On the defense side there was one thing we were missing last yr- Pass Rush, now we got Ty Tyler, one of the better pass rushers in college. A great replacement for Greenard. He’s a difference maker. I’m telling you’ll right now, we’re going bowling. All we gotta do is win 4 games in the ACC or maybe pull out one against UK. U can’t tell me we have no shot at beating WF,BC,FSU,UVA,UK,Cuse. These aren’t top 20 SEC teams. They are 5-7 win teams.
Well last year we paid $4 million to a coach who was only able to get 2 wins against a weaker schedule. And that coach had been recruiting his players to UofL for five years.
I agree that if the Cards only have two or three wins this season there will be disgruntled fans and a half full stadium in October and November. The same would be true at Alabama if they had two or three wins.
My point is you can’t blame this year’s staff if we only win a couple of games and it’s unrealistic to expect much better than that.
Per Steele, WF, BC and UK yes. UVa, Cuse and FSU are expected to be 8+ win teams this year.
Disagree, bro. It isn’t just about wins yet. We are going millions to stabilize the program and get it back on solid ground. The wins will come later.
Sorry if Steele is picking either FSU or Cuse to win 8 plus games this upcoming season then I feel much, much better with those thinking that we have a shot at 5 or 6 wins. FSU will suck (poor coaching) and the ‘Cuse lost far too much to win 8+. But that’s just my opinion. Steele ain’t perfect and I’d put far more confidence in CSS and his staff than I would Phil Steele.
GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
Which means we really wasted money last season, since we spent more money on a coach that could barely scratch out two wins against an even easier schedule. Right? Let's let Satterfield coach at least one game first, or better yet a full season, before going so negative. Go Cards!
That's exactly right, Preseason pollsters are just other opinions.
And I'm not trying to ground fan expectations in reality. I'm the last guy to do that. We're going to hear complaints from more than one or two people--who have basically set no bar--if this team only wins three games.
I'll put it another way... If Petrino & Co were as sorry as most in this space try to portray them, we need to do better than one more win...
And a much larger roster can also include more talent that was obscured, mismanaged, or otherwise unutilized. In basketball, we can all look down the bench and see how desperate things are.
Which makes the recent backdrop that much easier to show improvement against. We all remember those games unfortunately...
That’s the great debate about last season, isn’t it? Did we go 2-10 with completely uncompetitive performances after the FSU game because our talent level was terrible, or because Petrino sucked as a coach and the team quit on him?
Going forward, I’d like to think it was the latter, because then we really can be pleasantly surprised to find out that we are much better than the 89th best team in the country this year.
