Five Weeks In - 1st Look at the "Numbers"

ajgcardman · Oct 2, 2023

Those that have been members here for a while are likely familiar with the "numbers" that I'm referring to. In my opinion, they are just a simple analysis that best represents a team's relative power rating relative to other FBS teams. Although we are only through week 5, and the "numbers" are still lacking appropriate sample (usually need 7 or 8 weeks of data before most teams settle to what they are), this is about the first time period where we can start getting a "good" glimpse of where teams stand....at least how they "really" performed in September.

But before releasing the numbers, let's review a few things first, and offer a few thoughts:

The "numbers" are a summation of how well a particular team has performed in scoring & keeping their opponents from scoring. Specifically, a simple analysis is performed to identify the sum of a team's ability to 1) score points "above" what a particular opponent has allowed on average, and 2) to hold its opponent "below" what that opponent normally scores each game.
Theoretically, a sizable "positive" number represents "above average" performance, while a "negative" number represents a considerably poorer than average performance amongst other FBS teams.
By knowing each team's relative numbers, you get a peek into what line makers use to produce the original baseline number for a ballgame. From the baseline, they will then often "tweak" that baseline number based upon several factors, that includes home field, injuries, matchups, and simply how they think the betting public perceives the game (remember, most lines are set where they project a near 50-50 distribution of wagering to guarantee profit and reduce large losses).
Betting simply comes down to either pure luck (which, in time, you will eventually lose due to statistical probability and the odds are stacked against you), or recognizing when a play is in your favor and wagering appropriately.....which is what professionals attempt to do.
We're 5-0 this year, but our numbers suggest we're no better than we were last year.....yet. That may be no surprise to many of you, but it probably is to most of our fanbase. However, confidence goes a long way in increasing performance, and nothing breeds confidence more than winning, so hopefully our 5-0 start enhances our in-season development.
These numbers are only a reflection of September performance. Last year at this time, I was getting laughed at when posting these numbers & saying we're "better" than you think, and that our defense is better than you think (remember Syracuse, and how they turned out a little better than perceived early on?). Remember, the numbers don't lie, just a representation of true performance.
Don't complicate things in your analyses, the object is simply to be good at scoring and preventing your opponent from doing so - and doing better relative to everyone else. That's it. These numbers just show us who has been doing it the best thus far. Nothing else.

Now, here are the top 5 in the ACC, as well as ours, Notre Dame's, and UK's:

ACC Top 5:

1. Miami = +34.7 (O=+18.3, D=+16.4)
2. Clemson = +23.0 (O=+10.0, D=+13.0)
3. FSU = +22.8 (O=+12.0, D=+10.8)
4. Duke = +22.3 (O=+6.8, D=+15.5)
5. UNC = +14.4 (O=+7.2, D=+7.2)

Others of Note:

Louisville = +9.9 (O=+4.9, D=+5.0)
Notre Dame = +25.8 (O=+13.2, D=+12.6)
Kentucky = +20.5 (O=+12.5, D=+8.0)

Again, these are just preliminary numbers, an early glimpse, that can and often will fluctuate a bit moving forward but will begin stabilizing much more by the end of this month.

bobwest · Oct 2, 2023