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Does Anyone Else Think There Could Be A Dropoff

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Mar 17, 2013
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Losing so many players and the fact the all the coaches are now familiar with CSS.

I'm a little worried in the back of my mind that there could be a significant dropoff next year. If there is I hope everyone has patience with CSS.
 
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Someone did a great thread a few weeks ago about everyone who's coming back. At least pre-portal, it looks like we're going to get back almost all of our key skilled position players, including QB. And we're adding a 4-star QB recruit.

At worst, it seems like we'll basically be the same team next year, except with a year under the new system. Same problems on defense and with the lines. However, we don't know who will contribute from this year's good recruiting class, and there's still time for late signings, so there is room for improvement.

Year 3, when our offense turns over, that might be the time to start worrying. But next year we should be about where we are now with potential to be better.
 
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The biggest downside I see is that other teams have seen what CSS does with group and will be better prepared. We won't be able to sneak up on anyone. I am also concerned with our placekicking.

On a positive note, I expect our line play to be better. Another year of physical growth and maturity can't hurt. Plus, it will be interesting to see what late commits we get to help shore up the lines. Baring injury, we are set at QB. jmo
 
Something I haven't seen mentioned...just an opinion....the ACC has alot of bad teams, and it's possible some are getting even worse. Just thinking about bottom line W/L futures for UofL.
 
I can already tell you that Phil Steele is going to have some of his metrics pointing down for us.... 5 blowout losses (ie greater than 14 points). Close (7 points or less) wins against Virginia. BC, and Wake Forest. Comfortable wins against WKU, EKU, NC State, and Syracuse. He also looks at total net yards (total offense minus total defense), and we were actually negative 48 yards for the year (5305 minus 5353). So bottom line there is we’ve got a long way to go to improve by much....

at Clemson (10%?), at Notre Dame (15%?), at Syracuse (50%), at Virginia (55%), at BC (55%). The first two would be major upsets, therefore very unlikely. Syracuse in the dome always tough unless you have a Heisman trophy winner leaping defenders for TD’s. Virginia will be breaking in a new QB and BC will be rebuilding under a new coach. We should have a shot in each of those last three...

We will be a big favorite against Murray State (100%), and should be solid favorites at home against WKU (80%), Wake Forest (75%), and NC State (75%). I’d call the other 3 home games against UK, FSU and Virginia Tech as no better than 50/50 in each....

Those percentages I threw out there put us in the 7 win range again next year....
 
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We have virtually the same schedule except we add VaTech at home in lieu of Miami. The two sure losses (ND and Clemson) are both road games which I think it a good thing.
 
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While we are at it, I will go on record as saying OUR DEFENSE WILL STRUGGLE AGAIN. We do not have any NFL draftable type players returning and so far only have 1 impact juco guy. And we lose our best d-lineman - GG Robinson. The position he plays is hugely important in a 3-4 scheme. I think it will be troubling for Coach Brown if there isn’t some moderate improvement though due to familiarity with system.
 
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While we are at it, I will go on record as saying OUR DEFENSE WILL STRUGGLE AGAIN. We do not have any NFL draftable type players returning and so far only have 1 impact juco guy. And we lose our best d-lineman - GG Robinson. The position he plays is hugely important in a 3-4 scheme. I think it will be troubling for Coach Brown if there isn’t some moderate improvement though due to familiarity with system.


This is my biggest concern. I really hope that everyone has patience with this staff, they were handed a basket of half eaten chocolates and an order to refill it at the same time.
 
What makes predicting W-L is you have no idea how good the opponents will be outside of Clemson/Notre Dame.

UK and VT will be really good.
FSU will have talent.
Wake/BC/NC State/Syracuse/Virginia/Western/Murray State Louisville is better or equal in talent.

I think 7-5 or 6-6 is likely. The offense should be pretty good as long as the OLine continues to improve. Tackles for loss has to be better.

It will all come down to defense will they improve and right now that is hard to predict.
 
Depends on who gets better and worse.

BC, Wake, and UVA were all close games. Do they fall off or get better? Does Cuse or NC State have a bounce back year? If FSU gets another bad coach, then do we beat them?

Is Va Tech tougher than Miami this year? Kentucky, Clemson, and ND still have talent advantages.

I think we will be better, now could 1-2 wins we had this year flip to losses? Maybe. That doesn’t mean we are a worse team, just means luck changed.

We really held strong on injuries this year. If Micale is healthy from the start? Maybe we beat Florida State and play ND closer.

That’s the zone we are in, it’s good and bad for us right now. The conference behind Clemson is all close. That means we can rise and have a big year, but easily lose a few games too and move down to 5 wins.

I’m thinking Wake, FSU and NC State are must wins at home. Add in the 2 directional schools. So that means we need to steal one on the road against Virginia, BC, or Cuse. Then Va Tech and UK at home, you never know!

I think 6-7 wins are there, won’t be easy.
UK and ND will be very tough Non-conference games and Western will be a great test too. No rest for the weary, but that’s what we signed up for.

Maybe we fall to a 5-7 season? But I won’t see it as a step back, just kind of where we are with the roster we have at the moment.
 
Something I haven't seen mentioned...just an opinion....the ACC has alot of bad teams, and it's possible some are getting even worse. Just thinking about bottom line W/L futures for UofL.
The only issue with that thinking is that schools with historic traditions like FSU, Miami and VT won’t tolerate losing very long. BC and NC State are making changes and UNC will enter year 2 with Mack Brown.
 
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At this point our challenge is to beat enough of the middle of the road teams like us, to make a Bowl. Our coaching staff did an excellent job of that this year, and I think they'll be able to guide the team to a Bowl again next year. IMO, we're still 2-3 years off from really challenging the elite teams again. Assuming recruiting classes stay in the 25-35 range, we should be able to get there.
 
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I personally don't want easy street to wins. Let's see a bounce back in our bowl game and hope for stars to sign on and have already signed on. That transfer portal could get interesting for several teams.
 
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The only issue with that thinking is that schools with historic traditions like FSU, Miami and VT won’t tolerate losing very long. BC and NC State are making changes and UNC will enter year 2 with Mack Brown.

Good point.

Overall it's down right now as low as its prolly been in a long time, but it may not stay there.

Hard to predict!
 
Good point.

Overall it's down right now as low as its prolly been in a long time, but it may not stay there.

Hard to predict!
and similar to us, we were 2-10 after being in the playoff hunt and made a change. Boom 7-5. The right change or coach can spark a team to get better.

BC returns a lot and a good coach can get them together. NC State was young/injured, but Doeren has a good track record. Baber has Cuse looming better down the stretch.

But then, UVA was up and down and hasn’t been traditionally strong over the years. Wake has been a mixed bag of results. They could got down.
 
I don't see us losing to any team we beat this season. The talent disparity against Clemson will still be there, but instead of NC State, Boston College and Virginia being toss up games, those toss up games next season will be N.Dame, Florida St. and UK. Our offense will be a problem for everybody and our defense will get a smidge better with experience and players recruited to play for Coach Brown.
 
I don't see us losing to any team we beat this season. The talent disparity against Clemson will still be there, but instead of NC State, Boston College and Virginia being toss up games, those toss up games next season will be N.Dame, Florida St. and UK. Our offense will be a problem for everybody and our defense will get a smidge better with experience and players recruited to play for Coach Brown.
BC loses a bit on offense and brings back their whole defense. With a new coach, you don’t know how that’ll go as we saw this season. They do have a physical line, and that’s still our weakness. And it’s on the road.

NC State returns everyone that starts on offense, including 4 freshman. I think they had 6-7 guys that were injured. They lose a few on defense. They’ll be better, but we get them at home.

I think Syracuse will take a huge step back and Babers May get fired. They lose so much on defense, and it was already a bad defense. The offense will be high scoring again, but I think we can put the points up.

Wake Forrest loses 7 senior starters on offense. I don’t know how you recover from that type of loss in numbers. I think that’s a game we win again. And it’s at home.

Virginia loses Perkins. But they’re pretty balanced and will bring back a good amount of their team. We go there, road games are always tough. We haven’t played well up there since joining the ACC.

So I think Syracuse and Wake will be easy wins. Boston College is a probable win, but TBD on the coach. NC State is at home, but I bet theyll be a lot better. UVA on the road will be tough.

I think we can beat them all again, but then again with injuries and losses/transfers/coaches you can’t predict how exactly a team will fare.

GG, Caban, and Khane aren’t huge losses, but who behind them will make up or will we just hold serve? Becton will leave a huge hole, but the guys that will replace Haycraft may negate that and prove to be a positive.
 
Virginia could be a toss up, Coach Mendenhall is a very good coach and he will be 5 years in at Virginia. But losing a Perkins is huge for them. We didn't have trouble this season with teams that had less overall talent than us, but like you are correct, we struggle playing @Virginia. Coach Satt did very well against teams with equal or similar talent. NC St has similar talent but we aren't losing at home against teams with similar talent.

I think GG is a big loss, but nobody else on defense will be IMO. We need one of these recruits to develop and become a weapon on the edge or we need an outside linebacker that could disrupt things.

Once again, these coaches have forgot more things than I know, but from my comfort seats in the crunchzone, I wonder if Burns could play safety and move Monty Montgomery to that Card position. Monty gets after the ball and had several tackles for a loss. I never felt like that Card position was a good move for Burns. A sub 200 pound linebacker just doesn't seem like a good fit to me.
 
I don't see us losing to any team we beat this season. The talent disparity against Clemson will still be there, but instead of NC State, Boston College and Virginia being toss up games, those toss up games next season will be N.Dame, Florida St. and UK. Our offense will be a problem for everybody and our defense will get a smidge better with experience and players recruited to play for Coach Brown.

No Becton means no dominant offensive lineman to run behind. No one that causes defenses to over shift to his side, making them more vulnerable to the weak side pop pass to Tutu....

It’s not all good news for us ...

And speaking of Becton, how hilarious was that 15-yard penalty he got for “a late hit during the play”? I was livid that an official threw a flag on that. We aren’t playing the Marquis of Queensbury rules here ... Becton does not have to allow the guy the opportunity to get up before he blocks him again!
 
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Virginia could be a toss up, Coach Mendenhall is a very good coach and he will be 5 years in at Virginia. But losing a Perkins is huge for them. We didn't have trouble this season with teams that had less overall talent than us, but like you are correct, we struggle playing @Virginia. Coach Satt did very well against teams with equal or similar talent. NC St has similar talent but we aren't losing at home against teams with similar talent.

I think GG is a big loss, but nobody else on defense will be IMO. We need one of these recruits to develop and become a weapon on the edge or we need an outside linebacker that could disrupt things.

Once again, these coaches have forgot more things than I know, but from my comfort seats in the crunchzone, I wonder if Burns could play safety and move Monty Montgomery to that Card position. Monty gets after the ball and had several tackles for a loss. I never felt like that Card position was a good move for Burns. A sub 200 pound linebacker just doesn't seem like a good fit to me.
Well I think the best part is that they have a head start on where they need to look for help this offseason. They have a better idea of who can play where and who needs to gain/lose weight in the training program.

The roster right now is weird. I think the Micale/Tutu/Hawkins combo isn’t how he’s going to play long term, but it gives us some short term fun while he’s building the roster he wants.

Year 2 will be different as now we will be better prepared. At the same time, there’s now film on our guys. A lot more younger players will be in the game, so mistakes me be a bit higher but depth and endurance may last longer. There’s also not going to be the revenge tour motivation, finishing 2nd now puts a target on our backs! (Fun to say that again!)

I’m expecting a similar season at 7-5 or 6-6, but if we drop a close game here or 2 and win 5 or so I won’t be ready to jump off the ledge.
 
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I would expect a drop off in year 3. Year 2 might actually be as good or better than this year. Year 4 is where I expect this staff to really gain traction- when they’ve had a chance to coach up theirs guys and Bobby’s guys are mostly gone.
 
I would expect a drop off in year 3. Year 2 might actually be as good or better than this year. Year 4 is where I expect this staff to really gain traction- when they’ve had a chance to coach up theirs guys and Bobby’s guys are mostly gone.
Then year 5, he finally has 4 years of his class, and this 2020 class are now seniors. The 2019 class will probably haunt us the most for the next 2-3 years as Bobby let it fall apart and Scott didn’t have time to get it together outside of transfers and jucos.

2023 will be a special year. The guys that redshirted this year plus the 2020 class coming up will al be very experienced from having to play early. And we’ll have a balanced roster behind them.
 
We will either see a slight drop off or we will stay about the same. I don’t think we will see a big drop off. But with that said....I think the rebuild will take longer than it took Strong to get things rolling, but not much longer.

I base that on recruiting classes. Strongs first class was awesome and his second was even better. Satterfield has a good first class, but at the moment it doesn’t seem to be great. But that’s ok. That’s what I expected in his first class. He doesn’t have the connections or name recognition. I think his second class will be much better. That’ll be the one that gets the ball really rolling.
 
I don’t see any drop off. We return almost everybody on both sides of the ball. We will be more efficient, and experienced.

I see us averaging 40 pts a game and our defense will be slightly better. I’m not seeing a drop off at all.
 
The defense while bad, improved 20 spots.

Instead of 6 games of giving up 50 or more, it was just 2.

Hope the staff can get some low 4 stars, or high ones for the defense.
 
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How will the Card OL and DL be next year?
Know Becton is gone - literally a huge loss.

With Cunningham, Atwell, and Hawkins, Cards have v good skill position guys to lean on. But against good teams, will always come down to line play.

Obv Bobby left the cupboard pretty bare in that regard.

Good luck in your bowl. Music City?
 
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