Tomorrow I will again try to predict what the top 10 will look like when the committee releases its next interim report on Tuesday night. Tonight I thought it might be fun to explore some of the possibilities for how this will all end December 6th when the final rankings are released.
The "Vegas Scenario"
It is pretty easy to look forward and determine who is the likeliest post time favorite in Vegas each week remaining. For instance, Clemson is already a 26 point favorite at Syracuse next week. There is virtually no chance they will be anything but a double digit favorite the following week against Wake Forest and the closing regular season Saturday at South Carolina. So, assuming the Vegas favorites win every game left in front of them, the final four will be (in some order): Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma State (alphabetical works here).
Baylor loses out by virtue of playing at Stillwater November 21. Iowa's undefeated season comes to an end in the Big Ten title game where Ohio State will be the favorite. The winner of Stanford/Notre Dame will have an argument for their inclusion, but I cannot see a scenario in which either of them is placed in ahead of an undefeated power five school or a one-loss Alabama with what is presently the 5th toughest schedule according to Sagarin. Currently, Notre Dame's schedule rating is 16 and Stanford's is 31st and neither has a straw in their paths until they face each other in Stanford November 28th. Alabama still has trips to Starkville and Auburn plus the SEC championship against Florida.
Given the frequency of upsets in November, I give this scenario very little chance of happening.
"Chaos Scenario 1"
It is possible all four mentioned above will lose a game before their conference championship games. Iowa also has a trip to Lincoln, NE (ask Michigan State how they liked it) and Oklahoma State has games other than Baylor they could lose. We know Stanford or Notre Dame is going to lose a game since they play each other. So, Chaos Scenario 1 assumes there are no undefeated teams after November 28th. Who benefits?
You would have to like the Notre Dame/Stanford winner as one playoff participant. If LSU wins out from here, you would have to like them or Florida should the Gators be able to turn the tables in the SEC championship. I am guessing both will still be in the top 10 Tuesday.
But, if Ohio State loses to Michigan or MSU and that team loses no other conference games, OSU will not be in the Big Ten title game. So, the championship will come down to the Michigan school and Iowa (Iowa would still win their division with a single loss since they hold the tie-breaker over Wisconsin). So, you could have a two-loss Michigan versus Iowa for the title.
Another contender might be Oklahoma. If they are the ones to spoil the unbeaten seasons in the Big 12, they would move up the franks and would end the regular season on a seven game win streak (with two of those being at Baylor and at Oklahoma State). Bottom line is the third and fourth spots become difficult to predict under that scenario.
"Houston Scenario"
The Houston scenario is a corollary to the Chaos Scenario. It is the way a non-power five can get in. Currently Houston is undefeated and will be somewhere probably in the top 20 in the next interim release.
So, return to Chaos and assume a few "facts":
1. Michigan defeats Ohio State and Nebraska beats Iowa. Michigan defeats Iowa in the Big 10 title game.
2. Miss. State defeats Alabama next week and Ole Miss beats LSU the week after. Ole Miss then beats Florida in the SEC championship game.
3. Stanford loses to Oregon or Cal, and then defeats Notre Dame before losing in the Pac 12 championship.
4. Clemson loses to S. Carolina and then again to N. Carolina in the ACC title game.
5. The Big 12 pulls off a round-robin beat down such that no one finishes with less than 2 losses.
6. Houston wins out to remain unbeaten
I have no idea who would make the playoff, but I have to think Houston would be one of them.
The "Vegas Scenario"
It is pretty easy to look forward and determine who is the likeliest post time favorite in Vegas each week remaining. For instance, Clemson is already a 26 point favorite at Syracuse next week. There is virtually no chance they will be anything but a double digit favorite the following week against Wake Forest and the closing regular season Saturday at South Carolina. So, assuming the Vegas favorites win every game left in front of them, the final four will be (in some order): Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma State (alphabetical works here).
Baylor loses out by virtue of playing at Stillwater November 21. Iowa's undefeated season comes to an end in the Big Ten title game where Ohio State will be the favorite. The winner of Stanford/Notre Dame will have an argument for their inclusion, but I cannot see a scenario in which either of them is placed in ahead of an undefeated power five school or a one-loss Alabama with what is presently the 5th toughest schedule according to Sagarin. Currently, Notre Dame's schedule rating is 16 and Stanford's is 31st and neither has a straw in their paths until they face each other in Stanford November 28th. Alabama still has trips to Starkville and Auburn plus the SEC championship against Florida.
Given the frequency of upsets in November, I give this scenario very little chance of happening.
"Chaos Scenario 1"
It is possible all four mentioned above will lose a game before their conference championship games. Iowa also has a trip to Lincoln, NE (ask Michigan State how they liked it) and Oklahoma State has games other than Baylor they could lose. We know Stanford or Notre Dame is going to lose a game since they play each other. So, Chaos Scenario 1 assumes there are no undefeated teams after November 28th. Who benefits?
You would have to like the Notre Dame/Stanford winner as one playoff participant. If LSU wins out from here, you would have to like them or Florida should the Gators be able to turn the tables in the SEC championship. I am guessing both will still be in the top 10 Tuesday.
But, if Ohio State loses to Michigan or MSU and that team loses no other conference games, OSU will not be in the Big Ten title game. So, the championship will come down to the Michigan school and Iowa (Iowa would still win their division with a single loss since they hold the tie-breaker over Wisconsin). So, you could have a two-loss Michigan versus Iowa for the title.
Another contender might be Oklahoma. If they are the ones to spoil the unbeaten seasons in the Big 12, they would move up the franks and would end the regular season on a seven game win streak (with two of those being at Baylor and at Oklahoma State). Bottom line is the third and fourth spots become difficult to predict under that scenario.
"Houston Scenario"
The Houston scenario is a corollary to the Chaos Scenario. It is the way a non-power five can get in. Currently Houston is undefeated and will be somewhere probably in the top 20 in the next interim release.
So, return to Chaos and assume a few "facts":
1. Michigan defeats Ohio State and Nebraska beats Iowa. Michigan defeats Iowa in the Big 10 title game.
2. Miss. State defeats Alabama next week and Ole Miss beats LSU the week after. Ole Miss then beats Florida in the SEC championship game.
3. Stanford loses to Oregon or Cal, and then defeats Notre Dame before losing in the Pac 12 championship.
4. Clemson loses to S. Carolina and then again to N. Carolina in the ACC title game.
5. The Big 12 pulls off a round-robin beat down such that no one finishes with less than 2 losses.
6. Houston wins out to remain unbeaten
I have no idea who would make the playoff, but I have to think Houston would be one of them.
