Three weeks in and here is the updated installment:
Current Record - 2-1 (3-0 ATS)
Wins - EKU, WKU (Nashville)
Losses - Notre Dame
Remaining Games:
Likely Wins - None
Have a "Great" Shot - Syracuse
Have a Shot - @FSU, BC, @wake, @NC State, @Miami
Longer Shot - @UK, Virginia
No Shot - Clemson
Attitude and effort continues to be good, and overall injury situation continues to be a definite positive, but the QB injury to Jawon is concerning and introduces a little adversity to the squad. Despite that, we really played well during the 1st half, but looked very vulnerable in the second half.
I'm still very concerned with what we'll see when a good rush D is able to stuff our run. Won't be an easy thing to do, but we must find a way to develop some sort of downfield passing threat. The two long TD passes Saturday were a good start. I'm also not convinced we can effectively slow down a good running team, and that will be on full display these next two games. If we can, we can win them both. If we can't, then we likely won't, and could very well sustain some defensive injuries in the process.
These next three games will tell us a lot about our chances to get to 6 wins. Must win at lest one, but would love to find a way to win 2 of the 3.
As far as the opponent projections above, I moved FSU back to the "have a shot" category. They looked much better against Virginia than they have this year, and coupled with Pass' foot, this doesn't bold well for us.
I also swapped @NC State and @UK in the "have a shot" and "longer shot" category. NC State finally played a team with a pulse (WVU), and did not fare too well defensively. If we can stay somewhat healthy, that game may indeed be winnable.
UK is starting to look like a bad matchup to me. I think UK proved to me what I had already suspected, but hadn't confirmed yet because of their opponents in week 1 and 2.....that they have a very good offensive line, and just might be one of the country's best (yes, I know, hard to utter those words). If they had a good QB, they'd be a very good football team. But even with a mediocre QB, you can do a lot with a strong oline….especially against defenses teams like ours, who really needs to apply some sort of pressure to be successful. If Grantham's defense at Florida can't get much pressure, that's says a lot. A whole lot.
Still not sure what to make of Miami. It's now looking like UNC is better than I thought and much improved from a year ago. I thought Wake would paste the Heels by a couple TDs. It started that way, but then the Heels dug in defensively and made that a game until the end. I'm really impressed with what Coack Mack has done with that Carolina defense, taking them from one of the nation's worst to a very formidable squad in less than a year. It's one of the biggest surprises in college football to me this year (that, and Michigan's lack of offense).
Projected Record - 6-6
Projected Bowl - Quick Lane Bowl vs Indiana (Mark Schlabach just posted the Cards v. Nebraska in this game...the first national mention I've seen with us to a bowl)
(FYI - these "projections" are more of a hope for me than a prediction. For the record, my preseason prediction was 3-9 with wins over EKU & WKU and some upset along the way. As of today, I'm pleased with what I'm seeing and have increased my prediction to 4, possibly 5 wins. Still think we need to continue to develop and stay healthy to get to a bowl. But my optimism is growing. The next two weeks are HUGE for this program).
Current Record - 2-1 (3-0 ATS)
Wins - EKU, WKU (Nashville)
Losses - Notre Dame
Remaining Games:
Likely Wins - None
Have a "Great" Shot - Syracuse
Have a Shot - @FSU, BC, @wake, @NC State, @Miami
Longer Shot - @UK, Virginia
No Shot - Clemson
Attitude and effort continues to be good, and overall injury situation continues to be a definite positive, but the QB injury to Jawon is concerning and introduces a little adversity to the squad. Despite that, we really played well during the 1st half, but looked very vulnerable in the second half.
I'm still very concerned with what we'll see when a good rush D is able to stuff our run. Won't be an easy thing to do, but we must find a way to develop some sort of downfield passing threat. The two long TD passes Saturday were a good start. I'm also not convinced we can effectively slow down a good running team, and that will be on full display these next two games. If we can, we can win them both. If we can't, then we likely won't, and could very well sustain some defensive injuries in the process.
These next three games will tell us a lot about our chances to get to 6 wins. Must win at lest one, but would love to find a way to win 2 of the 3.
As far as the opponent projections above, I moved FSU back to the "have a shot" category. They looked much better against Virginia than they have this year, and coupled with Pass' foot, this doesn't bold well for us.
I also swapped @NC State and @UK in the "have a shot" and "longer shot" category. NC State finally played a team with a pulse (WVU), and did not fare too well defensively. If we can stay somewhat healthy, that game may indeed be winnable.
UK is starting to look like a bad matchup to me. I think UK proved to me what I had already suspected, but hadn't confirmed yet because of their opponents in week 1 and 2.....that they have a very good offensive line, and just might be one of the country's best (yes, I know, hard to utter those words). If they had a good QB, they'd be a very good football team. But even with a mediocre QB, you can do a lot with a strong oline….especially against defenses teams like ours, who really needs to apply some sort of pressure to be successful. If Grantham's defense at Florida can't get much pressure, that's says a lot. A whole lot.
Still not sure what to make of Miami. It's now looking like UNC is better than I thought and much improved from a year ago. I thought Wake would paste the Heels by a couple TDs. It started that way, but then the Heels dug in defensively and made that a game until the end. I'm really impressed with what Coack Mack has done with that Carolina defense, taking them from one of the nation's worst to a very formidable squad in less than a year. It's one of the biggest surprises in college football to me this year (that, and Michigan's lack of offense).
Projected Record - 6-6
Projected Bowl - Quick Lane Bowl vs Indiana (Mark Schlabach just posted the Cards v. Nebraska in this game...the first national mention I've seen with us to a bowl)
(FYI - these "projections" are more of a hope for me than a prediction. For the record, my preseason prediction was 3-9 with wins over EKU & WKU and some upset along the way. As of today, I'm pleased with what I'm seeing and have increased my prediction to 4, possibly 5 wins. Still think we need to continue to develop and stay healthy to get to a bowl. But my optimism is growing. The next two weeks are HUGE for this program).
