Through six games this team--and in my estimation, this coaching staff--has fallen short. Preseason I thought given improvement at QB and the weaponry he had at his disposal, we would see a tangible improvement in the passing game. By-and-large that has been the case with noticeable improvement at Tight End--and I would add, blocking out of the tight end position which was a little dicey at times last season. Jamari Johnson is blossoming before us and giving a skill set unique to any tight end we have seen in years; Redman is a quality blocker and proven to be reliable when he is thrown to. Deep shots are higher percentage with Shough. Brooks has been every bit the WR he was at Alabama and more. The offense overcame a late arriving Lacy due to injury, and he showed in the Notre Dame and UVa games just what we were missing. Isaac Brown has been a God Send and I would add, Duke Watson is emerging as well overcoming an injury to Turner pre-Ga Tech.
So what the hell is with this seeming Malaise around the Louisville program going into what I see as the Season's Pivot game against Miami, aside from the fact we haven't covered a spread since Georgia Tech and we had to have a blocked FG return to do that? It's not just a heap of angered degenerate gamblers.
1. Short yardage conversions. Bafflingly bad on 4th down but this is where the Staff has had to very publicly take some heat, these haven't been 4th and inches failures they have looked like 4th and long 1's at Notre Dame and against SMU most notably, twice in virtually identical situations where they left points lying on the field in one possession football games. Travelsted is pretty automatic under 40, so they turned down 35-40 yard field goals with what I thought was very low percentage conversion plays. Shough has been saddled by play calling that takes him out of the running game, and rightfully so...so that is one skill set player that doesn't have to be accounted for defensively and allowing for one more free defender unblocked. ND I flipped my lid watching an option to Chaney--the least likely of the 4 running backs dressed for the South Bend trip to make the corner and while an option look isn't a bad thing to use against ND, it had the wrong. Drew Deener summed Chaney up this morning better than I could. If you need 4 Chaney will get you 3. If you need 3 yards he'll get you two. If you need 40 yards...he'll get you four. SMU over guard with no push and I repeat that was 4th and a solid one yard. It was a mirror image when it's all said and done of the ill fated 4th and a long 1 at Pitt with Turner from our own 34 when we were up a touchdown coming out of the locker room.
My point with what seems like a bit of a history lesson is this--those plays and the play calls themselves had not only the common result of turnovers on downs, they tangibly, visibly and clearly were big momentum shifts in games that we lost. You can point to a lot of plays, but those plays were significant in the outcome. To me, it almost looked like in each instance Jeff was on Tilt for you poker players out there. That is disconcerting.
If I might provide a little hope though it is this. Last season we had a more stable offensive line situation with an All-ACC center in Hudson and better OTs but with the same guards we have this year in Gonzalez and Collins (once Renato went down, but to be a little critical of Renato he was looking like he was about to be supplanted prior to the knee injury). We had what you would perceive to be better RBs in short yardage in Guarendo and Jawhar. Despite all of that we only converted 37% of our 3rd downs last year and 54% of our 4ths. This year we are converting 41% of our 3rds. Defensively we are just as good as we were last year at 30% which is very good. Last year Miami converted 6 of 14 against us and we converted 5 of 12 against them. We can't miss on 4th Saturday and we have to capitalize in the Red Zone--if we fail at either Miami will not only be covering they will run us off the Field. Miami is 90% in the Red Zone on the year and 3/4's of those trips into the Red Zone result in TDs. We're a shadow of that so buckle your seat belts because that practically mandates turning down FGs for Touchdown drives even at home. That doesn't exactly buoy my enthusiasm given the midseason numbers tell a story of who you are as a football team more than what you thought you were as a football team though I will say this...Bhayshul Tuten had a stat line against Miami that was virtually identical to Isaac Brown's against UVa Saturday. Miami can be run on.
2. Pressure. It was the general consensus coming out of the Spring and into Fall Practice that this would be a historically deep defensive line for Louisville and it was perceived to be coached by the highest regarded of our defensive staff...so how is it with all of that we have 10 sacks through 6 games? How is that level of experienced depth allowing 3.5 yards per carry? The obvious and most visible answer is QBs have saturated the running yardage totals on the season and have been the leading rushers IN THE LAST FIVE GAMES. That is sort of mind boggling when you put it in print especially in the context of how seemingly sparse rushing yards from running backs has been. The lazy assessment might be with regard to pressure is that Gillotte is being put down in a four point stance inside a DT rather than a three point stance wide of a TE. When I look at this year vs. last one of the things that most stands out is it seems like we have done alot less four and five man T/E stunts than last season and this is where we get into the whys of why you don't go Cover Zero or stunt that much against teams with QBs who are a planned part of any Running Game, you are vacating big gaps to do it creating a gaping running lane with a secondary where only one Safety has his eyes on the QB. One good block to seal off a linebacker at the second level and the only preventing the QB from a touchdown up the middle is a fluky turning up of gravity or the turf monster jumping up.
...which brings me to Miami, because the nature of our defensive attacking I believe is going to have to be more reflective of what we saw in 2022 and last year when our defense was much more pressure oriented with pretty much the same personnel. Against Miami, we HAVE to send pressure or use it exotically or we will die a very ugly death of their choosing, but we also situationally have to be in a position to get exotic. It's tough to do that when your 3rd downs are 3rd and shorts; we need 3rd and longs and we might just need it as much to hear that Boxing Bell to get both End Zones at full throat. It's not so much you have to keep Ward in the pocket as much as we need to clog throwing lanes and you can't do that with just four rushers, you have to have fifth or sixth to create a visual wall and take the field between the hashes away. And getting home won't be enough because Ward still makes plays that are backbreaking like the desperate TD to the TE against Va Tech on 4th and long where Ward improvised. He has to take hits Saturday and I'll be that guy and suggest I'll take a couple roughing penalties if it comes to that. He cannot be left to pick us apart with clean pockets because statistically this year he has some absurd looking numbers when throwing from a clean pocket.
3. Intangibles. I hate to seem like Jimmy the Greek for you Older football sickos like myself, but when Brent Mussburger had his little 3x5 cards and would shoot the camera over to the Greek standing in front of his position by position matchups where he would always put a check mark under Dallas' column the very last category was always Intangibles. And it was right below the category 'Homefield Advantage'. Saturday there are some intangibles I think are critical...we can't see an 86 snap to 49 snap disadvantage like Cal a couple Saturdays back. I've come to the conclusion that part of the reason we don't go more no huddle or uptempo is because we'd be sacrificing the flexibility of certain offensive personnel groups. We'd love to go two tight ends more because we think it provides a little bit of an anchor to the running game, but going two tight ends likely takes Caullen Lacy--or Chris Bell--off the field and throws our deep/intermediate passing game out of whack. One thing I remember vividly from our matchup with Miami back in 2006 is we caught them big time in three or four quick change situations where we hit for big plays right off a big turnover forced by the defense and we also ran out of no huddle on consecutive snaps and it was to HUGE dividends. That is an intangible we have to have Saturday with the sellout; momentum has to build on itself and when the End Zones in that Stadium are full the complimentary football we saw against Notre Dame can make it seem like there are 100,000 people there. If you've ever been down field level since we closed the stadium in you know what I'm talking about.
I don't like us as a home underdog Saturday but you know what, I don't hate us either. And I think that's where we kind of are as a fanbase; two years ago we were in a bad way after the BC loss and our defense was playing like Dog Crap knowing the backside of our schedule was really loaded. And we righted the ship big time defensively, turned the season around with the added benefit of having Satterwhite skip town before the Fenway Bowl. Saturday poses that exact type of opportunity and we have the personnel to make a big statement. Fatefully I think Miami's secondary is exploitable and we have the perfect personnel to exploit that.
So what the hell is with this seeming Malaise around the Louisville program going into what I see as the Season's Pivot game against Miami, aside from the fact we haven't covered a spread since Georgia Tech and we had to have a blocked FG return to do that? It's not just a heap of angered degenerate gamblers.
1. Short yardage conversions. Bafflingly bad on 4th down but this is where the Staff has had to very publicly take some heat, these haven't been 4th and inches failures they have looked like 4th and long 1's at Notre Dame and against SMU most notably, twice in virtually identical situations where they left points lying on the field in one possession football games. Travelsted is pretty automatic under 40, so they turned down 35-40 yard field goals with what I thought was very low percentage conversion plays. Shough has been saddled by play calling that takes him out of the running game, and rightfully so...so that is one skill set player that doesn't have to be accounted for defensively and allowing for one more free defender unblocked. ND I flipped my lid watching an option to Chaney--the least likely of the 4 running backs dressed for the South Bend trip to make the corner and while an option look isn't a bad thing to use against ND, it had the wrong. Drew Deener summed Chaney up this morning better than I could. If you need 4 Chaney will get you 3. If you need 3 yards he'll get you two. If you need 40 yards...he'll get you four. SMU over guard with no push and I repeat that was 4th and a solid one yard. It was a mirror image when it's all said and done of the ill fated 4th and a long 1 at Pitt with Turner from our own 34 when we were up a touchdown coming out of the locker room.
My point with what seems like a bit of a history lesson is this--those plays and the play calls themselves had not only the common result of turnovers on downs, they tangibly, visibly and clearly were big momentum shifts in games that we lost. You can point to a lot of plays, but those plays were significant in the outcome. To me, it almost looked like in each instance Jeff was on Tilt for you poker players out there. That is disconcerting.
If I might provide a little hope though it is this. Last season we had a more stable offensive line situation with an All-ACC center in Hudson and better OTs but with the same guards we have this year in Gonzalez and Collins (once Renato went down, but to be a little critical of Renato he was looking like he was about to be supplanted prior to the knee injury). We had what you would perceive to be better RBs in short yardage in Guarendo and Jawhar. Despite all of that we only converted 37% of our 3rd downs last year and 54% of our 4ths. This year we are converting 41% of our 3rds. Defensively we are just as good as we were last year at 30% which is very good. Last year Miami converted 6 of 14 against us and we converted 5 of 12 against them. We can't miss on 4th Saturday and we have to capitalize in the Red Zone--if we fail at either Miami will not only be covering they will run us off the Field. Miami is 90% in the Red Zone on the year and 3/4's of those trips into the Red Zone result in TDs. We're a shadow of that so buckle your seat belts because that practically mandates turning down FGs for Touchdown drives even at home. That doesn't exactly buoy my enthusiasm given the midseason numbers tell a story of who you are as a football team more than what you thought you were as a football team though I will say this...Bhayshul Tuten had a stat line against Miami that was virtually identical to Isaac Brown's against UVa Saturday. Miami can be run on.
2. Pressure. It was the general consensus coming out of the Spring and into Fall Practice that this would be a historically deep defensive line for Louisville and it was perceived to be coached by the highest regarded of our defensive staff...so how is it with all of that we have 10 sacks through 6 games? How is that level of experienced depth allowing 3.5 yards per carry? The obvious and most visible answer is QBs have saturated the running yardage totals on the season and have been the leading rushers IN THE LAST FIVE GAMES. That is sort of mind boggling when you put it in print especially in the context of how seemingly sparse rushing yards from running backs has been. The lazy assessment might be with regard to pressure is that Gillotte is being put down in a four point stance inside a DT rather than a three point stance wide of a TE. When I look at this year vs. last one of the things that most stands out is it seems like we have done alot less four and five man T/E stunts than last season and this is where we get into the whys of why you don't go Cover Zero or stunt that much against teams with QBs who are a planned part of any Running Game, you are vacating big gaps to do it creating a gaping running lane with a secondary where only one Safety has his eyes on the QB. One good block to seal off a linebacker at the second level and the only preventing the QB from a touchdown up the middle is a fluky turning up of gravity or the turf monster jumping up.
...which brings me to Miami, because the nature of our defensive attacking I believe is going to have to be more reflective of what we saw in 2022 and last year when our defense was much more pressure oriented with pretty much the same personnel. Against Miami, we HAVE to send pressure or use it exotically or we will die a very ugly death of their choosing, but we also situationally have to be in a position to get exotic. It's tough to do that when your 3rd downs are 3rd and shorts; we need 3rd and longs and we might just need it as much to hear that Boxing Bell to get both End Zones at full throat. It's not so much you have to keep Ward in the pocket as much as we need to clog throwing lanes and you can't do that with just four rushers, you have to have fifth or sixth to create a visual wall and take the field between the hashes away. And getting home won't be enough because Ward still makes plays that are backbreaking like the desperate TD to the TE against Va Tech on 4th and long where Ward improvised. He has to take hits Saturday and I'll be that guy and suggest I'll take a couple roughing penalties if it comes to that. He cannot be left to pick us apart with clean pockets because statistically this year he has some absurd looking numbers when throwing from a clean pocket.
3. Intangibles. I hate to seem like Jimmy the Greek for you Older football sickos like myself, but when Brent Mussburger had his little 3x5 cards and would shoot the camera over to the Greek standing in front of his position by position matchups where he would always put a check mark under Dallas' column the very last category was always Intangibles. And it was right below the category 'Homefield Advantage'. Saturday there are some intangibles I think are critical...we can't see an 86 snap to 49 snap disadvantage like Cal a couple Saturdays back. I've come to the conclusion that part of the reason we don't go more no huddle or uptempo is because we'd be sacrificing the flexibility of certain offensive personnel groups. We'd love to go two tight ends more because we think it provides a little bit of an anchor to the running game, but going two tight ends likely takes Caullen Lacy--or Chris Bell--off the field and throws our deep/intermediate passing game out of whack. One thing I remember vividly from our matchup with Miami back in 2006 is we caught them big time in three or four quick change situations where we hit for big plays right off a big turnover forced by the defense and we also ran out of no huddle on consecutive snaps and it was to HUGE dividends. That is an intangible we have to have Saturday with the sellout; momentum has to build on itself and when the End Zones in that Stadium are full the complimentary football we saw against Notre Dame can make it seem like there are 100,000 people there. If you've ever been down field level since we closed the stadium in you know what I'm talking about.
I don't like us as a home underdog Saturday but you know what, I don't hate us either. And I think that's where we kind of are as a fanbase; two years ago we were in a bad way after the BC loss and our defense was playing like Dog Crap knowing the backside of our schedule was really loaded. And we righted the ship big time defensively, turned the season around with the added benefit of having Satterwhite skip town before the Fenway Bowl. Saturday poses that exact type of opportunity and we have the personnel to make a big statement. Fatefully I think Miami's secondary is exploitable and we have the perfect personnel to exploit that.
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