There are 2 basic options for the Football Program going forward, at the end of this season:
Option 1: Pray/Hope and Delay/Defer any Decision
a. Keep Petrino and any Staff he chooses for 2019
b. Accept certainty of much lower 2019 season ticket sales (a drop of ~12,000 from 2018)
c. Likely a ~$6m reduction in revenue (Contributions/tickets/concessions/advertising)
d. Hope W/L record improves in 2019 and team play gets better throughout 2019 season
e. Be prepared to hire a new coach and staff in Dec 2019, if things remain very bad.
f. Brohm may or may not be available in Dec 2019. His price may be higher. His desirability may be lower or higher. His willingness may be lower or higher. There may be better coaches available. Or not.
g. If Petrino has righted the ship sufficiently in 2019, then continue to 2020 with him and Hope/Pray.
h. If Petrino continues to remain coach, accept some blowback from those who wanted Brohm.
i. No effect on costs/expenses/compensation in 2019. But an almost certain large revenue reduction
j. Unknown effect on costs/expenses/compensation and also revenue in 2020 and later.
TOTAL FINANCIAL EFFECT 2019: Negative $6m
TOTAL FINANCIAL EFFECT 2020: Unknown, though downstream Petrino Buyout of up to $14m still remains if he is fired at end of 2019.
TOTAL LIKELY QUANTIFIABLE EFFECT: Negative $20m (if team remains bad in 2019)
TOTAL LIKELY QUANTIFIABLE EFFECT: Negative $6m (if team turns it around in 2019)
Option 2: Brohm Hired in December 2018
a. Petrino and Staff depart in Dec 2018.
b. Buyouts totaling ~$14m are paid to Petrino and Staff
c. Brohm and new Staff are hired.
d. Brohm buyout at Purdue is ~$4m
e. Season Ticket sales for 2019 increase (perhaps by 4,000)
f. Revenue increases by ~$2m (all inputs)
g. Petrino buyout cost is spread over 3 years (2019,2020,2021)
h. Costs/Expenses/Compensation more than double for a 3 year period. Due to Brohm Comp plus Petrino Deferred Comp Payout. About ~$5m per year added costs in 2019-2021.
i. Revenue increased by $2m in 2019. Afterward, unknown.
j. W/L record in 2019 and afterward may improve.
k. 2019 Recruiting Effect unknown (gains and losses)
TOTAL FINANCIAL EFFECT 2019: Negative $3m
TOTAL FINANCIAL EFFECT 2020: Unknown, but $9m more Petrino Buyout remains to be paid at some point.
TOTAL LIKELY QUANTIFIABLE EFFECT: Negative $12m (if Brohm stays and remains reasonably successful)
Option 3: Someone besides Brohm is hired for 2019.
a. I don't intend to quantify this one. Blowback would be strong. Ticket sales would not necessarily bounce back up.
Option 1: Pray/Hope and Delay/Defer any Decision
a. Keep Petrino and any Staff he chooses for 2019
b. Accept certainty of much lower 2019 season ticket sales (a drop of ~12,000 from 2018)
c. Likely a ~$6m reduction in revenue (Contributions/tickets/concessions/advertising)
d. Hope W/L record improves in 2019 and team play gets better throughout 2019 season
e. Be prepared to hire a new coach and staff in Dec 2019, if things remain very bad.
f. Brohm may or may not be available in Dec 2019. His price may be higher. His desirability may be lower or higher. His willingness may be lower or higher. There may be better coaches available. Or not.
g. If Petrino has righted the ship sufficiently in 2019, then continue to 2020 with him and Hope/Pray.
h. If Petrino continues to remain coach, accept some blowback from those who wanted Brohm.
i. No effect on costs/expenses/compensation in 2019. But an almost certain large revenue reduction
j. Unknown effect on costs/expenses/compensation and also revenue in 2020 and later.
TOTAL FINANCIAL EFFECT 2019: Negative $6m
TOTAL FINANCIAL EFFECT 2020: Unknown, though downstream Petrino Buyout of up to $14m still remains if he is fired at end of 2019.
TOTAL LIKELY QUANTIFIABLE EFFECT: Negative $20m (if team remains bad in 2019)
TOTAL LIKELY QUANTIFIABLE EFFECT: Negative $6m (if team turns it around in 2019)
Option 2: Brohm Hired in December 2018
a. Petrino and Staff depart in Dec 2018.
b. Buyouts totaling ~$14m are paid to Petrino and Staff
c. Brohm and new Staff are hired.
d. Brohm buyout at Purdue is ~$4m
e. Season Ticket sales for 2019 increase (perhaps by 4,000)
f. Revenue increases by ~$2m (all inputs)
g. Petrino buyout cost is spread over 3 years (2019,2020,2021)
h. Costs/Expenses/Compensation more than double for a 3 year period. Due to Brohm Comp plus Petrino Deferred Comp Payout. About ~$5m per year added costs in 2019-2021.
i. Revenue increased by $2m in 2019. Afterward, unknown.
j. W/L record in 2019 and afterward may improve.
k. 2019 Recruiting Effect unknown (gains and losses)
TOTAL FINANCIAL EFFECT 2019: Negative $3m
TOTAL FINANCIAL EFFECT 2020: Unknown, but $9m more Petrino Buyout remains to be paid at some point.
TOTAL LIKELY QUANTIFIABLE EFFECT: Negative $12m (if Brohm stays and remains reasonably successful)
Option 3: Someone besides Brohm is hired for 2019.
a. I don't intend to quantify this one. Blowback would be strong. Ticket sales would not necessarily bounce back up.
