I don't care what anyone says, there are a lot of good reasons why the game Saturday night shows up as essentially a Pick 'Em game (given the standard grease for homefield advantage):
* Personally I think Kentucky defensive is better than us in the front seven, or more specifically their personnel is better suited for their scheme. We don't have anyone resembling Marquand McCall at NT and their overall defensive front size is something we've only seen against Clemson and Florida State and that's notable because Florida State was the last team that outrushed Louisville. But Louisville gashed Clemson in a way Clemson hasn't been gashed on the ground all year, and that was without a healthy Cunningham from the middle of the third quarter. We have a Hybrid LB/DE in Abdullah who is statistically more productive than anyone in our defensive front seven, but Paschal makes plays with his hand down that we don't get from any of our normal down three. Paschal is in the Top 20 in the nation in TFLs so it will be interesting to see how he is schemed. Abdullah is 16th in the nation in sacks. Similar players statistically performing at an All-Conference level in their respective conferences...very differently schemed for that production and physically as different as you can be for people listed as DEs in their respective programs. By-and-large Paschal will be working the gap with Reid and Chandler for Louisville; Diaby and Gillotte will be shading Kinnaird.
* Kentucky is 18th in the nation in rush defense (which is a rushing yardage per game stat); on a YDS per carry level they are 37th. Weirdly, Louisville is 49th in both yards per game, and YDS per carry.
I dug a little into comparative rushing attacks faced by both teams and among the Top 50 rushing offenses in college football, at 16th we will be the highest yards per game average Kentucky has faced on the year at 217.5 yards per game. YPC Louisville is 8th in the country at 5.47 per carry. To this point in the season our rushing attack statistically is most like Florida's who is 17th in the nation in yards per game and 4th in yards per carry. Perhaps as a counter to the annual "Our schedule is tougher" mantra...Louisville has faced the 6th and 7th rushing attacks in college football in Ole Miss and Syracuse. The rushing attacks Kentucky has faced to this point in the season are a little different than Louisville's with maybe Florida and Tennessee's attack being similar to ours...but Florida in some bizarre tweak in gameplanning seemed to go into that game virtually abandoning the run.
People reading this from each fanbase are probably convinced I'm a little consumed with rushing yardage and you'd be right; I think that's who wins the game. Kentucky doesn't take many TFLs offensively, especially when it's Rodriguez with the football. I think Louisville has to be much more aggressive in early downs because in the tackle box there is no getting around the fact on a body-on-body level they can't go toe-to-toe with Kentucky. I'd expect Kentucky to take some shots downfield off playaction; if Louisville doesn't get into Levis' face I don't like our secondary personnel against Ali in particular and Robinson to an extent. We have had stints where we struggled with big WRs...and that was WITH Clark; without him it seems to me the pickings have been even more abundant. All of that keeps pointing to how critical it is for Louisville to win first down defensively; they may have to risk their secondary to contain Rodriguez.
Where I am confident with Louisville is they have run the football since the Florida State game against everyone. They gashed NC State to a plus 171 rushing differential. They gashed Clemson. The running game with Mitchell on the first series against Syracuse setup a virtual orgy of big playaction for the remainder of the first half; even without Cunningham running much in that game. Mitchell has set a quality tone; Cooley has been a quality compliment and something I think very much underlooked is what he produces out of the backfield...he is being missed on wheelroutes. People get hung up on the symbol on the side of the helmet, but Louisville's attack offers some subleties Kentucky hasn't faced this year when you factor in the unique nature of Cunningham's ballhandling abilities. If Kentucky unlocks the riddle of keeping him in the pocket where I would think it's a virtual certainty Jacquez Jones will act as a spy...Louisville is in trouble; if they don't and Louisville keeps expanding their offense with the RPO game that defensive size for Kentucky could work against them. With the exception of the BC game Louisville has taken care of the football. I expect more points in this game than most people seem to be predicting. I don't think 31 points wins the game.
* Personally I think Kentucky defensive is better than us in the front seven, or more specifically their personnel is better suited for their scheme. We don't have anyone resembling Marquand McCall at NT and their overall defensive front size is something we've only seen against Clemson and Florida State and that's notable because Florida State was the last team that outrushed Louisville. But Louisville gashed Clemson in a way Clemson hasn't been gashed on the ground all year, and that was without a healthy Cunningham from the middle of the third quarter. We have a Hybrid LB/DE in Abdullah who is statistically more productive than anyone in our defensive front seven, but Paschal makes plays with his hand down that we don't get from any of our normal down three. Paschal is in the Top 20 in the nation in TFLs so it will be interesting to see how he is schemed. Abdullah is 16th in the nation in sacks. Similar players statistically performing at an All-Conference level in their respective conferences...very differently schemed for that production and physically as different as you can be for people listed as DEs in their respective programs. By-and-large Paschal will be working the gap with Reid and Chandler for Louisville; Diaby and Gillotte will be shading Kinnaird.
* Kentucky is 18th in the nation in rush defense (which is a rushing yardage per game stat); on a YDS per carry level they are 37th. Weirdly, Louisville is 49th in both yards per game, and YDS per carry.
I dug a little into comparative rushing attacks faced by both teams and among the Top 50 rushing offenses in college football, at 16th we will be the highest yards per game average Kentucky has faced on the year at 217.5 yards per game. YPC Louisville is 8th in the country at 5.47 per carry. To this point in the season our rushing attack statistically is most like Florida's who is 17th in the nation in yards per game and 4th in yards per carry. Perhaps as a counter to the annual "Our schedule is tougher" mantra...Louisville has faced the 6th and 7th rushing attacks in college football in Ole Miss and Syracuse. The rushing attacks Kentucky has faced to this point in the season are a little different than Louisville's with maybe Florida and Tennessee's attack being similar to ours...but Florida in some bizarre tweak in gameplanning seemed to go into that game virtually abandoning the run.
People reading this from each fanbase are probably convinced I'm a little consumed with rushing yardage and you'd be right; I think that's who wins the game. Kentucky doesn't take many TFLs offensively, especially when it's Rodriguez with the football. I think Louisville has to be much more aggressive in early downs because in the tackle box there is no getting around the fact on a body-on-body level they can't go toe-to-toe with Kentucky. I'd expect Kentucky to take some shots downfield off playaction; if Louisville doesn't get into Levis' face I don't like our secondary personnel against Ali in particular and Robinson to an extent. We have had stints where we struggled with big WRs...and that was WITH Clark; without him it seems to me the pickings have been even more abundant. All of that keeps pointing to how critical it is for Louisville to win first down defensively; they may have to risk their secondary to contain Rodriguez.
Where I am confident with Louisville is they have run the football since the Florida State game against everyone. They gashed NC State to a plus 171 rushing differential. They gashed Clemson. The running game with Mitchell on the first series against Syracuse setup a virtual orgy of big playaction for the remainder of the first half; even without Cunningham running much in that game. Mitchell has set a quality tone; Cooley has been a quality compliment and something I think very much underlooked is what he produces out of the backfield...he is being missed on wheelroutes. People get hung up on the symbol on the side of the helmet, but Louisville's attack offers some subleties Kentucky hasn't faced this year when you factor in the unique nature of Cunningham's ballhandling abilities. If Kentucky unlocks the riddle of keeping him in the pocket where I would think it's a virtual certainty Jacquez Jones will act as a spy...Louisville is in trouble; if they don't and Louisville keeps expanding their offense with the RPO game that defensive size for Kentucky could work against them. With the exception of the BC game Louisville has taken care of the football. I expect more points in this game than most people seem to be predicting. I don't think 31 points wins the game.